My Lions' mock

[dcat]

5 minutes ago, dcat said:

6	1	6	1600	DET	Lions	Dcat	Christian Gonzalez	CB	Oregon
18	1	18	900	DET	Lions	Dcat	Bryan Bresee	DT	Clemson
48	2	17	410	DET	Lions	Dcat	Luke Musgrave	TE	Oregon State
55	2	24	340	DET	Lions	Dcat	Steve Avila	OG	TCU
81	3	18	180	DET	Lions	Dcat	Tanner McKee	QB	Stanford
152	5	17	26.6	DET	Lions	Dcat
183	6	6	13.8	DET	Lions	Dcat
194	6	17	9.4	DET	Lions	Dcat

OK.  It's McKee here. 

As we saw last season, Lions have a young and exciting offense for Goff, who is a solid QB most of the time.  He's under contract for '23 & '24.  He'll be 31 then.  But is Goff your QB beyond that?  Do Lions extend him?    I don't think anyone knows and you couldn't answer "yes" with much confidence.  Nate Sudfeld who is not NFL caliber (he was a Jet for a while) is on a 1 yr contract so he and McKee can hold the clipboards this year.  And even if Goff takes off and becomes more than a hold-the-fort QB, then McKee's rookie deal could make him an inexpensive good backup who could conceivably have trade value for the Lions.   Yeah I know it doesn't change much for 2023, but this is for the bigger picture.  Having him also gives the Lions a little leverage if negotiating an extension with Goff.   

Plus, McKee is undervalued IMHO. Some have rated a lot higher than the consensus.  I like his pocket passer style, his size and arm strength.  And I don't particularly care for the rest of the QB field after him.  That's it until rd 5. See you then.

 

 

here is the link to the spreadsheet.  Caution! You'll see who I left on the board, which could potentially drive you crazy, so tread carefully.

link to annual JN 32-GM Mock Draft

Edited April 4, 2023 by dcat

[Karnage84]

36 minutes ago, dcat said:

here is the link to the spreadsheet.  Caution! You'll see who I left on the board, which could potentially drive you crazy, so tread carefully.

link to annual JN 32-GM Mock Draft

Pick 6 - Gonzalez was a pretty good pick here. I might have considered Anthony Richardson in this spot based on the overall value. The three guys we'd hope to drop to us (Anderson, Carter, Wilson) are all gone. You were in a bit of a tough spot, really.

Pick 18 - Knowing that we actually wouldn't have had the CB run as I would have expected, I'd probably have gone with either AR at 6 and Witherspoon at 18, AR at 6 and Kancey at 18 or CG at 6 and Kancey at 18. We really need an interior pass rush but adding a CB that will be playing meaningful snaps and ideally starting next year is a big plus. 

Pick 48 - I actually can't say I dislike this here overall after seeing how the board shakes out. I might have considered Dawand Jones.

Pick 55 - You have made an enemy for life.... as you passed on Captain Jack Campbell!!!! For real, he won't be here at this point in the draft (or at least I don't think he should be) and if he is, I'd be super ticked if Holmes passes him over. 

Pick 81 - McKee isn't a bad pick here by any means. If you could anticipate the board, I probably would have selected AR at 6 and Witherspoon at 18 knowing that I could add Keeanu Benton here in the 3rd round. I feel like he's going to be an Allim McNeil level of player and would be a good fit in our defensive front.

[Sllim Pickens]

15 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

Pick 6 - Gonzalez was a pretty good pick here. I might have considered Anthony Richardson in this spot based on the overall value. The three guys we'd hope to drop to us (Anderson, Carter, Wilson) are all gone. You were in a bit of a tough spot, really.

Pick 18 - Knowing that we actually wouldn't have had the CB run as I would have expected, I'd probably have gone with either AR at 6 and Witherspoon at 18, AR at 6 and Kancey at 18 or CG at 6 and Kancey at 18. We really need an interior pass rush but adding a CB that will be playing meaningful snaps and ideally starting next year is a big plus. 

Pick 48 - I actually can't say I dislike this here overall after seeing how the board shakes out. I might have considered Dawand Jones.

Pick 55 - You have made an enemy for life.... as you passed on Captain Jack Campbell!!!! For real, he won't be here at this point in the draft (or at least I don't think he should be) and if he is, I'd be super ticked if Holmes passes him over. 

Pick 81 - McKee isn't a bad pick here by any means. If you could anticipate the board, I probably would have selected AR at 6 and Witherspoon at 18 knowing that I could add Keeanu Benton here in the 3rd round. I feel like he's going to be an Allim McNeil level of player and would be a good fit in our defensive front.

I would still take Witherspoon at 18 even if you take CG at 6.  That would make our CBs a strength and we likely could move on from Okudah or see if he has any value at S before cutting/trading him.  We have to think beyond this year at CB and we only have 1 CB under contract next year so adding CG and Witherspoon would be insane. I see why you went Bresee, I just don't think forcing something that is a need, albeit not a critical need IMO isn't smart. 

I figured when I saw the pick, Jack Campbell must have went early and figured there must not have been any great edge guys or OL left if you went TE.  But then I realize he didn't pass on Campbell just once, but twice?  And I see Will McDonald also passed over twice.  And dawand Jones goes the pick after a TE who could fill OG and OT.  I just can't handle taking a TE here over some of these guys given we don't utilize them all that much and the three we had were very good last year after the trade of TJ.

I don't mind Avila here but again, no way I am taking him over Campbell.  I think there are plenty of solid OGs in the draft that are good value where as there aren't LBs like Campbell. 

McKee I like as a prospect and would be ok taking him there.  If my dream draft happened though in this scenario I would have had CG/AR, Witherspoon, Campbell, McDonald, and then probably taken Benton.  Then grabbed someone to play OG with the next pick.  

[Just Want A Title]

2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I would still take Witherspoon at 18 even if you take CG at 6.  That would make our CBs a strength and we likely could move on from Okudah or see if he has any value at S before cutting/trading him.  We have to think beyond this year at CB and we only have 1 CB under contract next year so adding CG and Witherspoon would be insane. I see why you went Bresee, I just don't think forcing something that is a need, albeit not a critical need IMO isn't smart. 

I figured when I saw the pick, Jack Campbell must have went early and figured there must not have been any great edge guys or OL left if you went TE.  But then I realize he didn't pass on Campbell just once, but twice?  And I see Will McDonald also passed over twice.  And dawand Jones goes the pick after a TE who could fill OG and OT.  I just can't handle taking a TE here over some of these guys given we don't utilize them all that much and the three we had were very good last year after the trade of TJ.

I don't mind Avila here but again, no way I am taking him over Campbell.  I think there are plenty of solid OGs in the draft that are good value where as there aren't LBs like Campbell. 

McKee I like as a prospect and would be ok taking him there.  If my dream draft happened though in this scenario I would have had CG/AR, Witherspoon, Campbell, McDonald, and then probably taken Benton.  Then grabbed someone to play OG with the next pick.  

Taking Witherspoon at 18 after taking Gonzalez at 6 would be overkill for sure.  This draft is too deep at CB spend a second first-round pick on another CB.    This hits one of my hot-button issues with the Lions secondary:  everyone is overlooking Jerry Jacobs.  The national writers have been doing it for months.  Sometimes the local writers and fans seem to forget that he is on the roster.  It probably isn't a coincidence that our defense started turning things around when Jerry Jacobs returned from Injury.  He is the only "tone-setter" in the CB-Room.  He is a solid #2CB who can play outside and inside.  His development was hampered by the timing of his injury because his off-season focus was rehabilitation rather than development.  That isn't the case this year.  One last interesting fact:  he has only played in 25 games with 17 starts.  I don't think he has hit his ceiling.

As far as Jeff Okudah goes, he doesn't have a clear path to playing time, let alone a starting job.  I think the Lions moves say very clearly that they will not allow his enigmatic play to hold back the defense any longer.  

[Sllim Pickens]

49 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Taking Witherspoon at 18 after taking Gonzalez at 6 would be overkill for sure.  This draft is too deep at CB spend a second first-round pick on another CB.    This hits one of my hot-button issues with the Lions secondary:  everyone is overlooking Jerry Jacobs.  The national writers have been doing it for months.  Sometimes the local writers and fans seem to forget that he is on the roster.  It probably isn't a coincidence that our defense started turning things around when Jerry Jacobs returned from Injury.  He is the only "tone-setter" in the CB-Room.  He is a solid #2CB who can play outside and inside.  His development was hampered by the timing of his injury because his off-season focus was rehabilitation rather than development.  That isn't the case this year.  One last interesting fact:  he has only played in 25 games with 17 starts.  I don't think he has hit his ceiling.

As far as Jeff Okudah goes, he doesn't have a clear path to playing time, let alone a starting job.  I think the Lions moves say very clearly that they will not allow his enigmatic play to hold back the defense any longer.  

I am not overlooking Jerry Jacobs, but he is a free agent after this year, along with everyone else in the CB room other than Sutton.  We can carry 6 CBs in Sutton, Moseley, Jacobs, Harris, Gonzales, Witherspoon.  CJGJ, Walker, Kerby, and Iffy/CJ Moore at S.  Could likely even carry one more if we drafted a S or want to keep Okudah.  This would make the CB room one of the biggest strengths on the team and set us up for next year while not forcing our rookies to have to be stars from day 1.  Then next year if Jacobs progresses, we sign him to a longer deal with Harris, Okudah and Moseley gone. 

The draft is about BPA and I think both Gonzales and Witherspoon are top 10 talents and easily is BPA on the board at 18.  

[General Tso]

I think Gonzales and Witherspoon are just better prospects than Wilson and I'd rather have them at 6.

The alternative is guys like DJ Turner or Emmanuel Forbes, who you can sit for a year and season them and then let them start next year.

[Karnage84]

56 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I am not overlooking Jerry Jacobs, but he is a free agent after this year, along with everyone else in the CB room other than Sutton.  We can carry 6 CBs in Sutton, Moseley, Jacobs, Harris, Gonzales, Witherspoon.  CJGJ, Walker, Kerby, and Iffy/CJ Moore at S.  Could likely even carry one more if we drafted a S or want to keep Okudah.  This would make the CB room one of the biggest strengths on the team and set us up for next year while not forcing our rookies to have to be stars from day 1.  Then next year if Jacobs progresses, we sign him to a longer deal with Harris, Okudah and Moseley gone. 

The draft is about BPA and I think both Gonzales and Witherspoon are top 10 talents and easily is BPA on the board at 18.  

 

13 minutes ago, General Tso said:

I think Gonzales and Witherspoon are just better prospects than Wilson and I'd rather have them at 6.

The alternative is guys like DJ Turner or Emmanuel Forbes, who you can sit for a year and season them and then let them start next year.

My only issue in drafting guys like Gonzalez and Witherspoon as Rd 1 guys together is that you're going to create a bigger issue down the road when it comes time for 5th year options and contract extensions. You're going to run into cap balancing issues. It's more an issue for Future Brad Holmes but something to consider. Adding a guy in the middle rounds like Julius Brents who isn't going to get immediate playing time could help in this. They arguably would re-sign at a lower rate on a contract extension and you're able to stagger things by shifting out the time to make that decision into 3-4 years vs in 4-5. 

[General Tso]

12 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

 

My only issue in drafting guys like Gonzalez and Witherspoon as Rd 1 guys together is that you're going to create a bigger issue down the road when it comes time for 5th year options and contract extensions. You're going to run into cap balancing issues. It's more an issue for Future Brad Holmes but something to consider. Adding a guy in the middle rounds like Julius Brents who isn't going to get immediate playing time could help in this. They arguably would re-sign at a lower rate on a contract extension and you're able to stagger things by shifting out the time to make that decision into 3-4 years vs in 4-5. 

We have 2 first round picks, so this will be an issue no matter what. Unless you use those first round picks on low contract positions like RB and TE 👀

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, General Tso said:

We have 2 first round picks, so this will be an issue no matter what. Unless you use those first round picks on low contract positions like RB and TE 👀

Yes but it's doubly impactful when they're playing the exact same position. 

[Sllim Pickens]

15 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

 

My only issue in drafting guys like Gonzalez and Witherspoon as Rd 1 guys together is that you're going to create a bigger issue down the road when it comes time for 5th year options and contract extensions. You're going to run into cap balancing issues. It's more an issue for Future Brad Holmes but something to consider. Adding a guy in the middle rounds like Julius Brents who isn't going to get immediate playing time could help in this. They arguably would re-sign at a lower rate on a contract extension and you're able to stagger things by shifting out the time to make that decision into 3-4 years vs in 4-5. 

@General Tso stole my first comment that we will have to pay or not pay someone in 5 years but also the fact that the rosters will turnover so much by then, so who really cares.  You can't have a 5 year out mindset other than at QB.  I would guess that maybe 4 or 5 players on our current roster will be on the roster in 5 years when we have to make that decision so worrying about that now is just not the way to win now.  

[Sllim Pickens]

3 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Yes but it's doubly impactful when they're playing the exact same position. 

The position doesn't matter.  If we have two CBs that warrant getting 5th year options, it means we had a great 5 year run at CB and will have to decide to stick with it or move on from one of them.  The 5th year option is determined on how well they play and what accolades they get, so two top end 5th year options means we had some really exciting CB play.  If they play cheaper positions like LB or OG then sure, it will be cheaper but not enough to change who you would pick based on that.  

At some point we will have to make a decision of we pay ARSB and Williams.  I want two elite CBs so if thats how we get them, its still cheaper than free agency.  

[dcat]

6	1	6	1600	DET	Lions	Dcat	Christian Gonzalez	CB
18	1	18	900	DET	Lions	Dcat	Bryan Bresee	DT
48	2	17	410	DET	Lions	Dcat	Luke Musgrave	TE
55	2	24	340	DET	Lions	Dcat	Steve Avila	OG
81	3	18	180	DET	Lions	Dcat	Tanner McKee	QB
152	5	17	26.6	DET	Lions	Dcat	Kendre Miller	RB
183	6	6	13.8	DET	Lions	Dcat
194	6	17	9.4	DET	Lions	Dcat

 

RB: I know you signed Montgomery, but is RB an option here? Swift is out after this year?  I like Monty, but he can't be it.  Trade Swift for a bag of pretzels.  $1m dead cap but a $1.8m (off the board: Spears, TankBigsby, R. Johnson, McBride, israel A.) 

WR: Unimpressed with Marvin Jones signing.  I guess he's a good utility to have.  So how is Jameson doing?  Is St Brown the only sure thing?  Problem is whats left in the WR draft room isn't all that great.  Maybe w/next pick

Edited April 8, 2023 by dcat

[General Tso]

6 hours ago, dcat said:

6	1	6	1600	DET	Lions	Dcat	Christian Gonzalez	CB
18	1	18	900	DET	Lions	Dcat	Bryan Bresee	DT
48	2	17	410	DET	Lions	Dcat	Luke Musgrave	TE
55	2	24	340	DET	Lions	Dcat	Steve Avila	OG
81	3	18	180	DET	Lions	Dcat	Tanner McKee	QB
152	5	17	26.6	DET	Lions	Dcat	Kendre Miller	RB
183	6	6	13.8	DET	Lions	Dcat
194	6	17	9.4	DET	Lions	Dcat

 

RB: I know you signed Montgomery, but is RB an option here? Swift is out after this year?  I like Monty, but he can't be it.  Trade Swift for a bag of pretzels.  $1m dead cap but a $1.8m (off the board: Spears, TankBigsby, R. Johnson, McBride, israel A.) 

WR: Unimpressed with Marvin Jones signing.  I guess he's a good utility to have.  So how is Jameson doing?  Is St Brown the only sure thing?  Problem is whats left in the WR draft room isn't all that great.  Maybe w/next pick

RB is definitely in play during the draft. I'm becoming a fan of Roschon Johnson, I think his skillset is something we don't currently have in our RB room.

As for WR, if you can draft someone who can play X - big, contested catch, then I'd go for that.

[Just Want A Title]

19 hours ago, dcat said:

6	1	6	1600	DET	Lions	Dcat	Christian Gonzalez	CB
18	1	18	900	DET	Lions	Dcat	Bryan Bresee	DT
48	2	17	410	DET	Lions	Dcat	Luke Musgrave	TE
55	2	24	340	DET	Lions	Dcat	Steve Avila	OG
81	3	18	180	DET	Lions	Dcat	Tanner McKee	QB
152	5	17	26.6	DET	Lions	Dcat	Kendre Miller	RB
183	6	6	13.8	DET	Lions	Dcat
194	6	17	9.4	DET	Lions	Dcat

 

RB: I know you signed Montgomery, but is RB an option here? Swift is out after this year?  I like Monty, but he can't be it.  Trade Swift for a bag of pretzels.  $1m dead cap but a $1.8m (off the board: Spears, TankBigsby, R. Johnson, McBride, israel A.) 

WR: Unimpressed with Marvin Jones signing.  I guess he's a good utility to have.  So how is Jameson doing?  Is St Brown the only sure thing?  Problem is whats left in the WR draft room isn't all that great.  Maybe w/next pick

I think Kendre Miller is a very good RB prospect.  He has been dealing with an MCL injury but would make a great addition to our roster