2024 Prospects List (Google Sheets)

[Karnage84]

3 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think having this info is going to be fun to see who does well in the NFL based on their college numbers and athleticism and look back to see the correlation.  Seeing if there are trends or identifiers that truly help figure it out. And even the outliers if there is something specific that the numbers missed.

Also wondering how much NFL coaching plays into it.  Like if we see a trend of solid players failing in a specific scheme or on teams that change coaches every three years.  Like for a while there, every LB and CB New England drafted seemed to be good and wondering how much is BB vs them just finding the right guys.  A lot of really fun info and analysis can come from it.  I wonder if teams have this type of info and have people on staff looking at this stuff even if they have their own internal grading system instead of PFF.  It seems like with the money they have that they would use something like this. 

	YEAR	SELECT	PICKS	% OF PICKS		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	TOTAL		OLB
1	2012	33	253	13.0%		4	5	2	6	8	2	4	31		-2
2	2013	27	254	10.6%		2	6	2	5	3	3	5	26		-1
3	2014	34	256	13.3%		5	3	3	5	6	2	7	31		-3
4	2015	34	256	13.3%		3	5	3	5	7	6	5	34		0
5	2016	36	253	14.2%		2	7	3	7	3	7	7	36		0
6	2017	29	253	11.5%		3	4	5	4	6	2	3	27		-2
7	2018	39	256	15.2%		4	3	6	3	6	8	8	38		-1
8	2019	31	254	12.2%		2	2	6	2	12	4	3	31		0
9	2020	38	255	14.9%		4	1	4	3	2	4	4	22		-16
10	2021	22	259	8.5%		3	3	5	3	4	2	2	22		0
11	2022	25	262	9.5%		2	1	7	1	3	4	3	21		-4
12	2023	30	259	11.6%		3	1	6	1	7	4	0	22		-8
						37	41	52	45	67	48	51			-37
				2012-2018		23	33	24	35	39	30	39
				2019-2023		14	8	28	10	28	18	12

[Karnage84]

10 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

	YEAR	SELECT	PICKS	% OF PICKS		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	TOTAL		OLB
1	2012	33	253	13.0%		4	5	2	6	8	2	4	31		-2
2	2013	27	254	10.6%		2	6	2	5	3	3	5	26		-1
3	2014	34	256	13.3%		5	3	3	5	6	2	7	31		-3
4	2015	34	256	13.3%		3	5	3	5	7	6	5	34		0
5	2016	36	253	14.2%		2	7	3	7	3	7	7	36		0
6	2017	29	253	11.5%		3	4	5	4	6	2	3	27		-2
7	2018	39	256	15.2%		4	3	6	3	6	8	8	38		-1
8	2019	31	254	12.2%		2	2	6	2	12	4	3	31		0
9	2020	38	255	14.9%		4	1	4	3	2	4	4	22		-16
10	2021	22	259	8.5%		3	3	5	3	4	2	2	22		0
11	2022	25	262	9.5%		2	1	7	1	3	4	3	21		-4
12	2023	30	259	11.6%		3	1	6	1	7	4	0	22		-8
						37	41	52	45	67	48	51			-37
				2012-2018		23	33	24	35	39	30	39
				2019-2023		14	8	28	10	28	18	12

So we're seeing a significant shift away from 1st round LBs or at least 'off ball' guys. It's hard going through the draft selections since Will Anderson is designated as an LB in the same fashion as Jack Campbell is. 

It's wild to see - the handful of rare guys that might get drafted in round 1 to the near complete drop off in round 2 with most guys being selected in either round 3 or round 5. 

This means that we're probably looking at anything between about 9 - 14 prospects in the 3rd to 5th round range. I believe the Lions will have certain traits that should narrow this down even further - 235 lbs +, reliable tackler; good in coverage; intangibles, etc. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by Karnage84

[Sllim Pickens]

On 6/2/2023 at 2:18 PM, Karnage84 said:

So we're seeing a significant shift away from 1st round LBs or at least 'off ball' guys. It's hard going through the draft selections since Will Anderson is designated as an LB in the same fashion as Jack Campbell is. 

It's wild to see - the handful of rare guys that might get drafted in round 1 to the near complete drop off in round 2 with most guys being selected in either round 3 or round 5. 

This means that we're probably looking at anything between about 9 - 14 prospects in the 3rd to 5th round range. I believe the Lions will have certain traits that should narrow this down even further - 235 lbs +, reliable tackler; good in coverage; intangibles, etc. 

The traits is what I am most interested in.  I really don't care where guys were drafted but intrigued to see how much PFF, and RAS, and ranking tend to impact the outcome in the NFL. That correlation will be fun to track for all positions over the next few years now that you have some data.  

[Karnage84]

5 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

The traits is what I am most interested in.  I really don't care where guys were drafted but intrigued to see how much PFF, and RAS, and ranking tend to impact the outcome in the NFL. That correlation will be fun to track for all positions over the next few years now that you have some data.  

AVG		RD1	RD2	RD3	RD4	RD5	RD6	RD7
Career (Yrs)		5	6	4	4	4	3	3
AP1ST TM		0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PRO BOWL		1	1	0	0	0	0	0
STARTER		3	4	2	1	1	1	0
BACKUP		2	3	2	3	3	2	3
START%		67%	53%	31%	25%	19%	12%	9%
BACK%		33%	47%	69%	75%	81%	88%	91%
wAV		31	30	13	12	11	7	5
DrAV		26	22	10	8	9	5	4
G		66	79	46	51	47	39	36
SOLO		224	266	120	117	106	67	38
INT		4	5	3	2	3	3	2
SACKS		15	12	8	4	5	6	2
RAS		8.56	7.50	7.77	6.95	7.14	6.90	6.79

Edited June 5, 2023 by Karnage84

[Karnage84]

RD	PICK	TEAM	NAME	RAS		AGE	DRAFT	YEAR	PS	INJ/IR	CFL
7	209	STL	Aaron Brown	7.97	LB		2012
7	222	DAL	Caleb McSurdy	2.10	LB	22	2012	2014	1	1
7	245	DET	Brandon Hepburn	5.79	LB	23	2013		1	1
5	168	ATL	Marquis Spruill	5.83	LB	23	2014	2015		1	1
6	192	PIT	Jordan Zumwalt	7.09	LB	22	2014	2016		1
7	238	DAL	Will Smith	6.00	LB	22	2014	2015	1		1
7	253	ATL	Yawin Smallwood	3.50	LB	22	2014	2015	1
6	178	NWE	Matthew Wells	7.72	LB	24	2015	2016	1		1
7	232	WAS	Steven Daniels	1.11	ILB	23	2016	2017	1	1
6	178	NWE	Christian Sam	7.53	ILB	22	2018	2022
6	216	OAK	Azeem Victor	6.15	LB	22	2018		1
5	147	BUF	Vosean Joseph	0.20	LB	21	2019	2020		1	1
6	210	CIN	Deshaun Davis	2.63	LB	23	2019		1		1
6	202	ARI	Evan Weaver	6.25	LB	22	2020	2021	1
5	161	NOR	D'Marco Jackson	8.29	LB	24	2022			1
6	182	NYG	Darrian Beavers	9.61	LB	23	2022			1
6	219	TEN	Chance Campbell	9.71	LB	22	2022			1
				5.73					9	9	5

[Karnage84]

Just now, Karnage84 said:

RD	PICK	TEAM	NAME	RAS		AGE	DRAFT	YEAR	PS	INJ/IR	CFL
7	209	STL	Aaron Brown	7.97	LB		2012
7	222	DAL	Caleb McSurdy	2.10	LB	22	2012	2014	1	1
7	245	DET	Brandon Hepburn	5.79	LB	23	2013		1	1
5	168	ATL	Marquis Spruill	5.83	LB	23	2014	2015		1	1
6	192	PIT	Jordan Zumwalt	7.09	LB	22	2014	2016		1
7	238	DAL	Will Smith	6.00	LB	22	2014	2015	1		1
7	253	ATL	Yawin Smallwood	3.50	LB	22	2014	2015	1
6	178	NWE	Matthew Wells	7.72	LB	24	2015	2016	1		1
7	232	WAS	Steven Daniels	1.11	ILB	23	2016	2017	1	1
6	178	NWE	Christian Sam	7.53	ILB	22	2018	2022
6	216	OAK	Azeem Victor	6.15	LB	22	2018		1
5	147	BUF	Vosean Joseph	0.20	LB	21	2019	2020		1	1
6	210	CIN	Deshaun Davis	2.63	LB	23	2019		1		1
6	202	ARI	Evan Weaver	6.25	LB	22	2020	2021	1
5	161	NOR	D'Marco Jackson	8.29	LB	24	2022			1
6	182	NYG	Darrian Beavers	9.61	LB	23	2022			1
6	219	TEN	Chance Campbell	9.71	LB	22	2022			1
				5.73					9	9	5

These are all LB's that were drafted and did not play a down in the NFL. I wanted to explore and see if there were any patterns in what kind of player might fall into this category.

In most cases, it has been as a result of an injury. Rams LB Aaron Brown had some character questions coming into the draft (very hard to find any info on him). In most cases, these guys are relatively unathletic compared to the average.

R5	3
R6	8
R7	6

[Karnage84]

AVG		RD1	RD2	RD3	RD4	RD5	RD6	RD7
Career (Yrs)		5	6	4	4	4	3	3
AP1ST TM		0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PRO BOWL		1	1	0	0	0	0	0
STARTER		3	4	2	1	1	1	0
BACKUP		2	3	2	3	3	2	3
START%		67%	53%	31%	25%	19%	12%	9%
BACK%		33%	47%	69%	75%	81%	88%	91%
wAV		31	30	13	12	11	7	5
DrAV		26	22	10	8	9	5	4
G		66	79	46	51	47	39	36
SOLO		224	266	120	117	106	67	38
INT		4	5	3	2	3	3	2
SACKS		15	12	8	4	5	6	2
RAS		8.56	7.50	7.77	6.95	7.14	6.90	6.79
PFF NCAA		83.2	77.4	78.1	73.3	75.0	74.0	73.4

[Karnage84]

@Sllim Pickens

You're probably the only one looking at this.. but here goes. 

I was trying to work on some predictors - some indication that a player would be more likely to become a starter, a key back up or wind up failing out of the league. 

The Good: We have a range of RAS and PFF scores that should give us an idea of whether this player should succeed as a starting LB, have a career as a backup or wash out

The Bad: There's enough overlap that it'll be harder to figure out who those guys will be, especially pre-draft. 

RD1

STARTERS (50%-100% OF CAREER, NO LESS THAN 2 SEASONS)

RAS

• Median = 9.32
• Standard Deviation = 1.68
• -1 Std Dev = 7.63
• +1 Std Dev = 11 (Highest RAS is 10.0)

PFF OVR

• Median = 83.4
• Standard Deviation = 8.2
• -1 Std Dev = 75.10
• +1 Std Dev = 91.6

SUMMARY

Athletic and productive guys work out as good players? It's shocking.... However, it's more about the bottom end that I wanted to determine. So we can see that the lowest RAS is 7.63 and the lowest OVR is 75.10 where they can still be a starter at 50%+. If a player is towards the bottom in both of these categories, it'll be a lot less likely they'll work out. 

BACKUP (0 - 50%)

RAS

• Median = 8.05
• Standard Deviation = 2.67
• -1 Std Dev = 5.38
• +1 Std Dev = 10.72 (Highest RAS is 10.0)

PFF OVR

• Median = 74.3
• Standard Deviation = 6.7
• -1 Std Dev = 67.6
• +1 Std Dev = 81.0

SUMMARY

So we see a big drop off in median RAS with a larger standard deviation. A RAS of 10 doesn't guarantee that a player will be great but it is probably one factor in why they were selected in Round 1. Having a RAS of 5.38 or less is likely going to indicate this player will be in more of a back up role in their career or even bust. 

A median of 74.3 is lower than the lower end of the starter (75.10), which should help in establishing if a player is more likely to fit into a starting role or as a back up. A PFF OVR over 81.0 leans closer to this player being a starter for most of their career. A 67.6 or less would strongly suggest they would fall into the back up role. 

 

[Karnage84]

My "Probable potential Lions LB picks via 2024 draft"

6'0+. 235 lbs+, 74.3 OVR+ (based on above), coverage grade of 65.0+. We don't have any RAS scores right now to help narrow things down. 

 

NAME	SCHOOL	HT	WT	PFF OVR
Tommy Eichenberg	Ohio State	74	239	86.8
Chad Bailey	Missouri	72	240	84.2
Cody Simon	Ohio State	74	239	80.5
Clayton Coll	Ball State	75	235	80.4
Dallas Gant	Toledo	75	235	80.0
Marlowe Wax	Syracuse	73	239	78.6
Justin Wright	Oklahoma State	74	239	78.1
Jackson Sirmon	California	74	240	77.9
Stone Snyder	Virginia Tech	75	240	77.8
Shayne Simon	Pittsburgh	75	235	76.7
Junior Colson	Michigan	74	235	75.6
Jacob Roberts	Wake Forest	73	235	75.4
DJ Schram	Boise State	73	235	75.0
Devyn Curtis	Middle Tennessee	74	237	74.6
Tyrice Knight	UTEP	74	240	74.3

[Louis Friend]

My biggest issue with RAS is that the rating figures heavily on which position they graded the player at. EDGE and hybrid players in particular, if they grade them at DE against their measurements might be lower whereas if they trade them against LBs, their measurements (and RAS) end up grading higher which can skew their number considerably. Same as S/NB/CB. Also IOL vs OT. 
 

I like RAS to compare speed/agility vs peers, but the overall RAS number does little for me. I still think this research you are doing is incredible. 

[Karnage84]

Tommy Eichenberg is "my guy" in this way too early version of things. Projected as a 3rd rounder despite being a Butkus award candidate (and presumably the leading guy), grades really well across the board in run defense and coverage. He's probably not going to test at Jack Campbell's level but he'll probably exceed overall projections but get knocked for his 40 (Draft Buzz has a 4.69 right now). 

16 minutes ago, Louis Friend said:

My biggest issue with RAS is that the rating figures heavily on which position they graded the player at. EDGE and hybrid players in particular, if they grade them at DE against their measurements might be lower whereas if they trade them against LBs, their measurements (and RAS) end up grading higher which can skew their number considerably. Same as S/NB/CB. Also IOL vs OT. 
 

I like RAS to compare speed/agility vs peers, but the overall RAS number does little for me. I still think this research you are doing is incredible. 

I totally get it. However, I'm looking at off ball LB's. I tried to eliminate this by only including LB/ILB designated guys in the list from Pro Football Reference and/or Wikipedia. 

Unfortunately, guys like Khalil Mack, Rashan Gary, Jermaine Johnson, etc. get wrapped up into that. I excluded anyone with the OLB designation to try and mitigate this - which could arguably rule out guys who are 4-3 OLB's. There's some level of inaccuracy but this is more of an "out of interest" project and I didn't want to get too nitpicky. 

RAS: Given the effort, RAS (and PFF) are simplified metrics that have the same baseline for each prospect at the same position. Draft position is meaningless as we have guys who are drafted in round 1 that wash out while a guy like Malcolm can start every game as a 6th rounder (limited sample but still). We don't have any RAS for the 2024 class or enough information to try and generate one (I've tried with Jeremiah Trotter but missing too many details) but that'll get thrown into the blender when the time comes.

PFF OVR: This is just a simplified version to measure "production" and arguably "quality of play". PFF only started doing this in 2014, so the earliest draft class that I have this info for is the 2015 class. So we're missing a big segment - 2012, 2013 and 2014 classes. Given that Luke Kuechly, Lavonte David and Bobby Wagner all came from the 2012 class.. it would have been nice to have those tools to compare things. 

[Karnage84]

I have to imagine that these guys would all have graded out pretty well via PFF if it was available at the collegiate level at the time. 

Luke Kuechly (3 Seasons at BC)

• Tackles: 191
• TFL: 12
• Sack: 0
• INT: 3
• DTD: 1
• PD: 0
• FF:0
• FR: 0

Lavonte David (2 Seasons at Nebraska)

• Tackles: 133
• TFL: 12
• Sack: 5.5
• INT: 2
• DTD: 0
• PD: 2
• FF:3
• FR: 2

Bobby Wagner (4 Seasons at Utah State)

• Tackles: 147
• TFL: 11.5
• Sack: 4
• INT: 2
• DTD: 0
• PD: 2
• FF:0
• FR: 0

 

[Sllim Pickens]

5 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

@Sllim Pickens

You're probably the only one looking at this.. but here goes. 

I was trying to work on some predictors - some indication that a player would be more likely to become a starter, a key back up or wind up failing out of the league. 

The Good: We have a range of RAS and PFF scores that should give us an idea of whether this player should succeed as a starting LB, have a career as a backup or wash out

The Bad: There's enough overlap that it'll be harder to figure out who those guys will be, especially pre-draft. 

RD1

STARTERS (50%-100% OF CAREER, NO LESS THAN 2 SEASONS)

RAS

• Median = 9.32
• Standard Deviation = 1.68
• -1 Std Dev = 7.63
• +1 Std Dev = 11 (Highest RAS is 10.0)

PFF OVR

• Median = 83.4
• Standard Deviation = 8.2
• -1 Std Dev = 75.10
• +1 Std Dev = 91.6

SUMMARY

Athletic and productive guys work out as good players? It's shocking.... However, it's more about the bottom end that I wanted to determine. So we can see that the lowest RAS is 7.63 and the lowest OVR is 75.10 where they can still be a starter at 50%+. If a player is towards the bottom in both of these categories, it'll be a lot less likely they'll work out. 

BACKUP (0 - 50%)

RAS

• Median = 8.05
• Standard Deviation = 2.67
• -1 Std Dev = 5.38
• +1 Std Dev = 10.72 (Highest RAS is 10.0)

PFF OVR

• Median = 74.3
• Standard Deviation = 6.7
• -1 Std Dev = 67.6
• +1 Std Dev = 81.0

SUMMARY

So we see a big drop off in median RAS with a larger standard deviation. A RAS of 10 doesn't guarantee that a player will be great but it is probably one factor in why they were selected in Round 1. Having a RAS of 5.38 or less is likely going to indicate this player will be in more of a back up role in their career or even bust. 

A median of 74.3 is lower than the lower end of the starter (75.10), which should help in establishing if a player is more likely to fit into a starting role or as a back up. A PFF OVR over 81.0 leans closer to this player being a starter for most of their career. A 67.6 or less would strongly suggest they would fall into the back up role. 

 

Interesting info.  So this is just 1st round picks correct?  And how far back did you go with it?  There are only like p LBs in the 1st round since 2020 if you don't count edge guys like Will Anderson, Micah Parsons etc. 

Any chance you can add RAS to the 2023 LB list next to their PFF for future tracking purposes since I can't edit it?  I know your info is only 1st round picks so Campbell is out only example this year but others who have a similar PFF/RAS scores like Sirvocea Dennis (7.75 RAS/90.6 PFF, 5th round pick), Dorian Williams (8.78 RAS, 83 PFF, 3rd Rd pick) etc end up doing.  Obviously Campbell should be a starter with his 91.7 and 9.98 RAS given he is near 1 STD up in both from the median.  

Side note, Malcolm Rodriguez had a 9.48 RAS and a PFF in the mid 80s if I remember correctly.  So makes sense he would work into being a starter long term after a solid year as a part time starter in 2022.   

 

[Sllim Pickens]

3 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

My biggest issue with RAS is that the rating figures heavily on which position they graded the player at. EDGE and hybrid players in particular, if they grade them at DE against their measurements might be lower whereas if they trade them against LBs, their measurements (and RAS) end up grading higher which can skew their number considerably. Same as S/NB/CB. Also IOL vs OT. 
 

I like RAS to compare speed/agility vs peers, but the overall RAS number does little for me. I still think this research you are doing is incredible. 

Is RAS done by position or by size? I think it is size which means that position doesn't matter its just how athletic you are compared to others your size.  If you are 290 lbs, odds are you are a DT or an OL so you are being compared to people in your weight range.  Like Anthony Richardson may not be as fast as Vick but he is 4 inches taller and 35 lbs heavier so he has a higher RAS.  But Richardson's RAS is also compared against TE's who are his same size.  He is about the same size as George Kittle but almost a second faster in the 40 and has a vertical jump that is 5" higher.  He is also similar to Jack Campbell in size, and being faster and jumping higher is why he gets a slightly higher grade but Campbell's agility drills boosted him up. 

[Karnage84]

18 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Interesting info.  So this is just 1st round picks correct?  And how far back did you go with it?  There are only like p LBs in the 1st round since 2020 if you don't count edge guys like Will Anderson, Micah Parsons etc. 

Any chance you can add RAS to the 2023 LB list next to their PFF for future tracking purposes since I can't edit it?  I know your info is only 1st round picks so Campbell is out only example this year but others who have a similar PFF/RAS scores like Sirvocea Dennis (7.75 RAS/90.6 PFF, 5th round pick), Dorian Williams (8.78 RAS, 83 PFF, 3rd Rd pick) etc end up doing.  Obviously Campbell should be a starter with his 91.7 and 9.98 RAS given he is near 1 STD up in both from the median.  

Side note, Malcolm Rodriguez had a 9.48 RAS and a PFF in the mid 80s if I remember correctly.  So makes sense he would work into being a starter long term after a solid year as a part time starter in 2022.   

 

This is just 1st round for right now. I could do rounds 2 and 3 but I was thinking that I would want to identify guys with 1st round traits as opposed to guys that will be drafted in round 2 or round 3. 

So this goes as far back as 2012 in terms of RAS and 2014 stats (2015 draft) for PFF. 

LB: It does include some guys like Will Anderson, Micah Parsons, Barkevious Mingo, etc. I figure between the guys who don't get roped in that play 4-3 OLB and the guys that are playing 3-4 OLB it'll wash out. This is already an inexact science so I didn't think it was worth doing a micro dive into things. 

So when we look at a guy like Malcolm (or Dennis or Williams), we're looking at anything within the median to plus or minus 1 standard deviation. That will encapsulate 68%, which is a far better shot than 50/50. It just increases our probability that a guy that hits these metrics is going to play between 50% to 100% of their games as a starter. 

I expect Malcolm is going to wind up playing a key backup role this year with the *potential* to replace Anzalone next year if he can take the next leap. If he can't, then we're definitely going to be drafting AA's replacement (cough Tommy Eichenberg cough) in 2024. 

PFF/RAS: I thought I had it in there for the 2023 class. I'll double-check.