2024 Prospects List (Google Sheets)

[Karnage84]

6 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Thats kind of my point though.  You are focusing on first round prospects, which is a great way to look at things if planning on drafting one early, although the info is also helpful for comparisons to later picks to see if the correlation is the same.  I would look more at guys who have been later picks and started based on earning opposed to guys who start because of need/draft status like Devin Lloyd. 

I agree on Eichenberg though, and think he will be one of the better OSU LBs in a while.  I think he has potential to put together a Jack Campbell type senior year but not sure how he does in drills.  

I'm not focusing on 1st round prospects - I'm looking at identifiers of guys who have started. Malcolm hit the RAS/PFF metric and was taken in round 6. The percentage of guys that have been taken earlier instead of later who have started is much higher but the majority of guys are generally taken later. 

I'm using the percentage of games started/the percentage of total games as a metric because it's easier to quantify. When it comes to PFF scores, it's harder. Do you take the last year? Do you take best year? Do you take an average of all of their years (which would be a boatload of work - PFF doesn't give you a career average)? 

[Karnage84]

@Sllim PickensI'll probably work on the other rounds but it will likely just lead to an expanded window with more overlap between the guys who succeed and those who fail. My focus was on the min. score for starters (50%+) in rounds 1-3 as a decent enough sample size. I can't remember if I broke down % of starters by round, which could help. 

[Karnage84]

@Sllim Pickens what is the next position that you want to look at in more depth?

[Karnage84]

On 6/7/2023 at 10:49 AM, Karnage84 said:

My "Probable potential Lions LB picks via 2024 draft"

6'0+. 235 lbs+, 74.3 OVR+ (based on above), coverage grade of 65.0+. We don't have any RAS scores right now to help narrow things down. 

 

NAME	SCHOOL	HT	WT	PFF OVR
Tommy Eichenberg	Ohio State	74	239	86.8
Chad Bailey	Missouri	72	240	84.2
Cody Simon	Ohio State	74	239	80.5
Clayton Coll	Ball State	75	235	80.4
Dallas Gant	Toledo	75	235	80.0
Marlowe Wax	Syracuse	73	239	78.6
Justin Wright	Oklahoma State	74	239	78.1
Jackson Sirmon	California	74	240	77.9
Stone Snyder	Virginia Tech	75	240	77.8
Shayne Simon	Pittsburgh	75	235	76.7
Junior Colson	Michigan	74	235	75.6
Jacob Roberts	Wake Forest	73	235	75.4
DJ Schram	Boise State	73	235	75.0
Devyn Curtis	Middle Tennessee	74	237	74.6
Tyrice Knight	UTEP	74	240	74.3

Chad Bailey was arrested for a DWI and suspended indefinitely. 

[Sllim Pickens]

3 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

@Sllim Pickens what is the next position that you want to look at in more depth?

CB, DT, and OL would be in some order of interest to me next.  I think we are definitely in line to pick up a CB or two next year so would like to go there next.  Then maybe IOL with the questions on Jonah's contract and what might happen at RG.  Not to mention Ragnow's toe that might end his career sooner than it should.  

[Sllim Pickens]

18 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

@Sllim PickensI'll probably work on the other rounds but it will likely just lead to an expanded window with more overlap between the guys who succeed and those who fail. My focus was on the min. score for starters (50%+) in rounds 1-3 as a decent enough sample size. I can't remember if I broke down % of starters by round, which could help. 

Instead of going by round, just go by depth chart.  That leaves 64-96 CBs in the population.  I am sure that RAS isn't available for all of them so maybe 50-60 players to look into.  I don't have access to PFF, although I have been considering it so I dont have to ask you every time I am interested in something, but am willing to help pull together some lists of players or RAS.  

If you had the info above, you could then break it down by draft round as well after and would help compare to the other data you have for LB.  

[Karnage84]

Just now, Sllim Pickens said:

Instead of going by round, just go by depth chart.  That leaves 64-96 CBs in the population.  I am sure that RAS isn't available for all of them so maybe 50-60 players to look into.  I don't have access to PFF, although I have been considering it so I dont have to ask you every time I am interested in something, but am willing to help pull together some lists of players or RAS.  

If you had the info above, you could then break it down by draft round as well after and would help compare to the other data you have for LB.  

If you're willing to help, then maybe we go RAS (Sllim) and me (PFF) to knock em out. We can take the list and place in Google and just input in there. 

The reason that I've been going by round is because we have 32 GM's + all of their staff evaluating things over months and year's. People with more information that are smarter than I am have determined this player fits here. 

[Karnage84]

14 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

CB, DT, and OL would be in some order of interest to me next.  I think we are definitely in line to pick up a CB or two next year so would like to go there next.  Then maybe IOL with the questions on Jonah's contract and what might happen at RG.  Not to mention Ragnow's toe that might end his career sooner than it should.  

These were the position groups I was going to look at as well. I'm thinking WR should be in that mix as well. 

[Sllim Pickens]

7 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

If you're willing to help, then maybe we go RAS (Sllim) and me (PFF) to knock em out. We can take the list and place in Google and just input in there. 

The reason that I've been going by round is because we have 32 GM's + all of their staff evaluating things over months and year's. People with more information that are smarter than I am have determined this player fits here. 

I get that, but they also are wrong about 50% of the time in the first round.  And like 54% of draft picks never play a snap with their team or are considered useless and another 26% are considered average or bad. So of all the draft picks 12% are good, 7% great and 1% HOF worthy.  So focusing on the good+ or even the average+ to see what traits they share seems helpful in making the draft selections.  

And yes I am down to help out where I can.  

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I get that, but they also are wrong about 50% of the time in the first round.  And like 54% of draft picks never play a snap with their team or are considered useless and another 26% are considered average or bad. So of all the draft picks 12% are good, 7% great and 1% HOF worthy.  So focusing on the good+ or even the average+ to see what traits they share seems helpful in making the draft selections.  

And yes I am down to help out where I can.  

Yes - which is why I'm breaking it down as "starter (50%+ of starts)" and "back up" (less than 50% of starts) and then looking for patterns on why guys who are drafted in the early rounds and why they may have busted out (or what indications are there they were going to be a good player). I'll continue it to the later rounds at some point and see what holds up vs what doesn't. 

 

• R1 = 23/28 or 82% of players selected started 50%+
• R2 = 21/29 or 72% of players selected started 50%+
• R3 = 11/30 or 36.7% of players selected started 50%

Were they starting because they were good players, team need or just because of draft capital invested? I don't really want to get THAT deep, at least not at this point. They started over 50% of games over a 2+ year career. That's enough to justify their inclusion. Looking at the traits of guys who started 3+ years and over 50% (maybe more like 60 - 75%) would be a better indication of what to look for for a long-term starter.

So if we look at someone that has a 3rd round grade. 

11/30 or 36.7% of them will wind up starting more than 50% of games

Starters

Median RAS of 8.02 = range of 6.93 - 9.11 (within 1 standard deviation)

PFF OVR: Median of 86.50 with a range of 78.52 - 94.48 (within 1 standard deviation)

Back Up

Median RAS of 8.50 = range of 5.75 - 11.25 (10 is max) (within 1 standard deviation)

PFF OVR: Median of 77.90 with a range of 65.74 - 90.06 (within 1 standard deviation)

A player with a 9.11 RAS doesn't guarantee they'll be a good player as we can see guys with high RAS scores also fall into the back up category.

We just increase our odds (68%) when we have a player that:

• RAS: 9.1+ and (since the starters max out at that number)
• PFF: 91.0+ (since the backups max out below that number)

 

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

Yes - which is why I'm breaking it down as "starter (50%+ of starts)" and "back up" (less than 50% of starts) and then looking for patterns on why guys who are drafted in the early rounds and why they may have busted out (or what indications are there they were going to be a good player). I'll continue it to the later rounds at some point and see what holds up vs what doesn't. 

 

• R1 = 23/28 or 82% of players selected started 50%+
• R2 = 21/29 or 72% of players selected started 50%+
• R3 = 11/30 or 36.7% of players selected started 50%

Were they starting because they were good players, team need or just because of draft capital invested? I don't really want to get THAT deep, at least not at this point. They started over 50% of games over a 2+ year career. That's enough to justify their inclusion. Looking at the traits of guys who started 3+ years and over 50% (maybe more like 60 - 75%) would be a better indication of what to look for for a long-term starter.

So if we look at someone that has a 3rd round grade. 

11/30 or 36.7% of them will wind up starting more than 50% of games

Starters

Median RAS of 8.02 = range of 6.93 - 9.11 (within 1 standard deviation)

PFF OVR: Median of 86.50 with a range of 78.52 - 94.48 (within 1 standard deviation)

Back Up

Median RAS of 8.50 = range of 5.75 - 11.25 (10 is max) (within 1 standard deviation)

PFF OVR: Median of 77.90 with a range of 65.74 - 90.06 (within 1 standard deviation)

A player with a 9.11 RAS doesn't guarantee they'll be a good player as we can see guys with high RAS scores also fall into the back up category.

We just increase our odds (68%) when we have a player that:

• RAS: 9.1+ and (since the starters max out at that number)
• PFF: 91.0+ (since the backups max out below that number)

 

Two standard deviations encapsulate 95%, so we can say it's more likely someone who has a RAS under 5.84 (8.02-(1.09*2)) is going to be a career backup. Mix in a PFF score of 53.58 (77.90-(12.16*2)) and we have a greater shot that this person is likely to be a career backup (under 50%). It's not perfect but there's about a 95% chance that this is the case. Someone that goes outside of this would be an outlier (by my definition, I believe anything outside 3 standard deviations (99.7%) is technically 'an outlier'). 

[Karnage84]

I added another little metric - Tackles/G. Just to help determine efficiency and impact per game as opposed to over a total career. 

1. Telvin Smith (5th) - 5.9/g
2. Luke Kuechly (1st) - 5.8/g
3. Roquan Smith (1st) - 5.8/g
4. Shaq Leonard (2nd) - 5.8/g
5. Lavonte David (2nd) - 5.7/g
6. Bobby Wagner (2nd) - 5.4/g
7. Nick Bolton (2nd) - 5.4/g
8. CJ Mosely (1) - 5.3/g
9. Jordyn Brooks (1) - 5.3/g
10. Blake Martinez (4) - 5.3/g

 

In contrast, guys with very little impact:

1. Sean Porter (4) - 0.0 > 5.76 RAS
2. Chazz Surratt (3) - 0.1 > 8.47 RAS; 47.9 PFF
3. Terrell Manning (5) - 0.1 > 3.46 RAS
4. Arthur Brown (2) - 0.3 > 7.00
5. Ben Banogu (2) - 0.3 > 9.70 RAS; 71.5 PFF
6. Darius Fleming (5) - 0.3 > 6.91 RAS
7. Marcus Smith (1)  - 7.51 RAS

Avg (All players)

RAS = 7.37

PFF = 76.34

Porter, Brown, Fleming all had below-average RAS scores. Surratt and Banogu both had below-average PFF scores despite having high athletic scores. 

[Karnage84]

@Sllim Pickens 

An interesting note on Eichenberg,

He ran 317 snaps on run defense out of 447 total run defense snaps (70.9%) while 309/360 coverage snaps or 85.8%. 77.5% of Total Snaps (Run/Coverage - I don't really track pass rush snaps for an off-ball LB because I figure anything they can add there is gravy).

[Louis Friend]

Two positions I can’t wait to dive into are DT and CB. Love the work Karnage.

[Karnage84]

On 6/29/2023 at 11:59 AM, Louis Friend said:

Two positions I can’t wait to dive into are DT and CB. Love the work Karnage.

I've been pretty busy and haven't had a chance to dig into this as much. There's some intriguing names at DT but I think we need to see how McNeill and Brodric Martin fare this year before figuring out if DT is a higher priority for the Lions or if they're going to keep dipping into the 3rd round or less to address the position.