Justin Fields

[AZBearsFan]

19 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I'll admit, 5/6 weeks ago I was fully out on JF. I just couldnt take the perceived indecision over and over. But since then, a few things have happened;

1. Not only did he play better down the stretch (Sans W18, the OL was a complete mess) but he has been revealed to be one of the better Locker Room Leaders around, and if not 'best', one that guys are currently most vocal about. Those things matter to a winning team. And theres a major chance that a rookie would be a severe step back in that area alone.
2. I actually got a chance to look at some of the All-22, and what I was thinking was always indecision and double clutching, was more often than not just absolutely no one being open. Was that due to bad route concepts, wrong routes, guys just not able to get open? Im not sure on alot of that, I dont know what was called and what not, but I can see they arent open. Thats hard to put on Fields, especially when we are so harsh on him for turnovers his entire career so far.
3. Guys who I very much respect (Chase Daniel and Chris long to name a couple) still see it with Justin Fields. And I can absolutely admit that they know WAY more than I do when it comes to the Xs & Os. They see it, they see the growth this year amidst all the garbage (bad coaching, lack of talented weapons, OL failing him) and have said Recently that he can be the guy, that the Bears can win with him. Daniel breaks down the plays, Long breaks down the situation very well in their recent videos/podcasts. 

Those things have me back around to keeping Fields again. But Im only there because I dont see a sure fire thing at QB in this draft. None of them truely are, Trevor Lawrence was The Savior prospect, and he is struggling three years in with a respected offensive mind at ther helm and a treasure trove of Offensive Weapons. The immediate floors of these guys in this draft (Williams/Maye) could be SO LOW, and not even because of ability or physical traits (which I also have questions on both) but on the other side we KNOW what Fields floor is, and you can win with that floor, assuming you limit the TOs. But from there, I still think there is still massive potential in Justin Fields to unlock, and someone who isnt the most paint by numbers OC should be able to tap into atleast SOME of that. 

There clearly isnt an obvious answer to this, so the only wrong answer is pretending that there is. But I would posit, if we had pick #4 instead of 1.1 in the Carolina trade, we wouldnt even be talking about other QB prospects, especially with how Justin did in the second half of the season, especially with what has to be a better OC on their way in. Maybe Im getting blinded by the haul that back to back trades of 1.1 can do to revitalize a franchise, but to me building the roster more than just a QB is the better path to follow at this point. We can pay 9one way or another) for a QB later, you dont always get this chance to change the entirety of a roster you just tore to the studs 20ish months ago.

Great post. This is a really good summation of where I’m at with it too (except I never got quite to the point of being out on him).

I think it really boils down for most people that want Williams that they don’t (either no longer or never did) believe in Fields’ high ceiling being reachable, where those who are still in on him do it as reachable. 

[Madmike90]

Just now, AZBearsFan said:

Great post. This is a really good summation of where I’m at with it too (except I never got quite to the point of being out on him).

I think it really boils down for most people that want Williams that they don’t (either no longer or never did) believe in Fields’ high ceiling being reachable, where those who are still in on him do it as reachable. 

Yeah I completely agree because the ceiling of Fields is still palpable and that is not a knock on Celeb...I for one really like Caleb as well...I just think that for the overall team dynamic keeping Fields with the right OC and most importantly real talent around him makes the most sense for this team...especially with Flus staying.

[Madmike90]

 

 

[refundmytickets]

Fields' passing stats over his last 6 games:

111/185, 60%CMP, 1192YDS, 4TD, 3INT, 6.44YDS/ATT, 199YDS/GM, 79.4RTG

He was actually better in his first 6 games. But the attitude about the team improved because the defense improved and they won a few games.

I like Fields the person. It's easy to see why teammates love him. It's easy to root for him. But we're in year 3 and pointing to 6 games where he played like a bottom 3rd QB as a sign of progress. That's just not good enough for me. You want to see flashes in year 1. By year 3 you want those things to happen routinely.

And while Fields' upside is better than anyone's, has any high-upside QB ever reached his potential following a similar development path? Allen, Hurts, Jackson, etc. were all high-end starters by year 3 at the latest.

[Madmike90]

8 minutes ago, refundmytickets said:

Fields' passing stats over his last 6 games:

111/185, 60%CMP, 1192YDS, 4TD, 3INT, 6.44YDS/ATT, 199YDS/GM, 79.4RTG

He was actually better in his first 6 games. But the attitude about the team improved because the defense improved and they won a few games.

I like Fields the person. It's easy to see why teammates love him. It's easy to root for him. But we're in year 3 and pointing to 6 games where he played like a bottom 3rd QB as a sign of progress. That's just not good enough for me. You want to see flashes in year 1. By year 3 you want those things to happen routinely.

And while Fields' upside is better than anyone's, has any high-upside QB ever reached his potential following a similar development path? Allen, Hurts, Jackson, etc. were all high-end starters by year 3 at the latest.

And all had more consistency & talent in their coaching staff as well as significantly more talent around them by year 3...the 2024 season would realistically be Fields' year three and if we can give him a proper OC and as much talent then I would expect him to take that leap.

[AZBearsFan]

18 minutes ago, refundmytickets said:

Fields' passing stats over his last 6 games:

111/185, 60%CMP, 1192YDS, 4TD, 3INT, 6.44YDS/ATT, 199YDS/GM, 79.4RTG

He was actually better in his first 6 games. But the attitude about the team improved because the defense improved and they won a few games.

I like Fields the person. It's easy to see why teammates love him. It's easy to root for him. But we're in year 3 and pointing to 6 games where he played like a bottom 3rd QB as a sign of progress. That's just not good enough for me. You want to see flashes in year 1. By year 3 you want those things to happen routinely.

And while Fields' upside is better than anyone's, has any high-upside QB ever reached his potential following a similar development path? Allen, Hurts, Jackson, etc. were all high-end starters by year 3 at the latest.

Stats seldom tell the whole story though, right? 2 of the 3 INT in that stretch were on Hail Mary passes (one of which wasn’t even caught by the defender), and there were 3 dropped TD passes in there. How different is the line if the TD:INT ratio is 7:1, all from things beyond his actual play? Nothing HE did would have been any different, yet the stat sheet would show an entirely different player. 

Pull Hurts’ 2023 stat line now for the last 6 weeks. It’s terrible. Allen had a stretch this year where he threw INTs 9 straight games.

Watching the games the improvement in his play was obvious. Whether it was enough to pass on Williams is a different discussion. 

[refundmytickets]

5 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

And all had more consistency & talent in their coaching staff as well as significantly more talent around them by year 3...the 2024 season would realistically be Fields' year three and if we can give him a proper OC and as much talent then I would expect him to take that leap.

Go look at the Ravens' roster from 2019-2022 and tell me they had more talent.

[AZBearsFan]

2 minutes ago, refundmytickets said:

Go look at the Ravens' roster from 2019-2022 and tell me they had more talent.

Ok, but look at Lamar’s stat lines from 2020-22 and tell me they looked significantly different from that of Fields. 

Edited January 11 by AZBearsFan

[AZBearsFan]

No matter how we slice this, it’s not a simple evaluation. Those who want to stick with Fields can reasonably justify it. Those who want to move on can justify why they shouldn’t keep Fields. 

[AZBearsFan]

Also when we’re talking about Lamar we’re talking about a guy who’s about to be one of 11 multi-MVP winners. Ever. So if that’s our bar for success… 

[refundmytickets]

3 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Stats seldom tell the whole story though, right? 2 of the 3 INT in that stretch were on Hail Mary passes (one of which wasn’t even caught by the defender), and there were 3 dropped TD passes in there. How different is the line if the TD:INT ratio is 7:1, all from things beyond his actual play? Nothing HE did would have been any different, yet the stat sheet would show an entirely different player. 

Pull Hurts’ 2023 stat line now for the last 6 weeks. It’s terrible. Allen had a stretch this year where he threw INTs 9 straight games.

Watching the games the improvement in his play was obvious. Whether it was enough to pass on Williams is a different discussion. 

Here are Hurts' stats from the final 6 weeks (yikes):

110/180, 61%CMP, 1161YDS, 5TD, 5INT, 6.45YDS/ATT, 194YDS/GM, 77.6RTG

But I'm not interested in comparing 6 of Hurts' games with 6 of Fields'. The reason I made the comparison is this: we have never seen a 3rd year QB with no track record become a great QB. Hurts, Allen, Jackson had established themselves by this point. Each had a full season of great QB play. Fields doesn't even have a full season of average QB play. So if we're betting on Fields' upside, we have to believe he can make unprecedented improvements.

I just think Fields' development is happening too slowly to pass on the best QB prospect. For me it's a pretty simple decision. The Bears don't have an established QB and they have an opportunity to draft the best prospect.

[Madmike90]

29 minutes ago, refundmytickets said:

Go look at the Ravens' roster from 2019-2022 and tell me they had more talent.

You mean with the OC in Greg Roman many of us wanted before Flus made it clear we were keeping the same offence who was there for years...under a HC who is one of the best in the league who has been there for years...under the absolute best front office who have been there for years?

Talent wise they always have a great rushing attack and offensive line with guys like Ronnie Stanley fully healthy at LT...Orlando Brown Jr playing his actual position at RT...Marshal Yanda one of the best guards of the last decade...Ben Powers who is a quality guard...they had the best TE room in football in 2019 with Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst & Nick Boyle...they had Hollywood Brown & Sammy Watkins who were productive for them...

And then shock horror when they keep that rushing attack in place and get an even better OC when it comes to the passing attack as well as adding more weapons on the outside and Jackson goes from being really good to MVP level...

If anything the Ravens are a blue print of what we should be doing this offseason.

[refundmytickets]

27 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Ok, but look at Lamar’s stat lines from 2020-22 and tell me they looked significantly different from that of Fields. 

Not sure why we're ignoring Jackson's 2019 season. I'd still say there's a significant difference:

Jackson from 19-22: 956/1485, 64%CMP, 11008YDS, 95TD, 35INT, 7.4YDS/ATT, 203YDS/GM, 98.1RTG
Jackson from 20-22: 691/1084, 64%CMP, 7881YDS, 59TD, 29INT, 7.3YDS/ATT, 202YDS/GM, 92.5RTG
Fields 2023: 227/370, 61.4%CMP, 2562YDS, 16TD, 9INT, 6.9YDS/ATT, 197YDS/GM, 86.3RTG

[Madmike90]

45 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

No matter how we slice this, it’s not a simple evaluation. Those who want to stick with Fields can reasonably justify it. Those who want to move on can justify why they shouldn’t keep Fields. 

I think this really hits the nail on the head and to add to it every one of us regardless of our stance is working with at most 50% of the picture...we see what these guys do on Sundays...we see a little of how they are in front of the press...but no one outside of these organisations get all the information of the person rather than the player and that is a massive part of any projection...as much as some might view these guys as robots you just swap in and out because one throws better than the other or one runs fast that the other it's not madden...the personal relationship these guys with the coaches, their fellow players, the community it all matters more than we every probably give it credit for. 

[beardown3231]

The Bears had 1 touchdown drive in their final 3 road games and it was a 4 play, 1 yard drive

I don't care if Fields' #1 WR was Josh Bellamy and #1 TE was Kellen Davis while being protected by Omiyale and Webb. At some point there has to be some ability to get in the endzone. Don't get me wrong that's not ALL on Fields, not in the least bit, but it's time to **** or get off of the pot