Is Brock Purdy Actually Good?

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

42 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Right, I've already called out Ruiz referencing PFF's TWP stat incorrectly and I was going to check if this guy used the same stat. Because if he did, then TWP =/= turnover worthy passes. It references turnover worthy plays. Even that is questionable as PFF had Brock having one TWP and I just can't recall what the hell they used for that. They had him down for having one last week and even that is pushing it but at least you can somewhat argue it since the DB got his hands on the ball. 

This guy threw a lot of stats out with no context. Isn't that the argument against Purdy being MVP where folks say the numbers look good but his play isn't as good as the numbers? Then he came to conclusion that Purdy is just being asked to not screw it up. I'm sorry, but I just don't take articles like this serious when you make statements like that and incorrectly reference certain stats. Again, run those separation/yac stats for Mahomes from 2022. Let's have a real comparison and see how much different Purdy's numbers are in those two particular areas. 

Saying he is not all that fast of a processor and using the time to throw is something I have NEVER seen before. So was Purdy a fast processor earlier in the season and became a lesser processor once the OL started to play better? 

What exactly am I supposed to take from his article? 

I hate twp stats.  I find them useless and silly.  

Time to throw is good data, but it has nothing to do with processing time.  It takes about five plays of watching Brock's helmet stripe before you recognize his processing ability.  

Guys are open in part because of how well he uses his eyes and feet, and also in part to how quickly he recognizes coverages of all types. This is a positive, not a negative, the fact that this is seen as a negative trait is pure garbage.  If he waited longer to throw like other QB's the guys would be more covered.  How many people won MVP by not throwing to open guys?   

[J-ALL-DAY]

5 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

I hate twp stats.  I find them useless and silly.  

Time to throw is good data, but it has nothing to do with processing time.  It takes about five plays of watching Brock's helmet stripe before you recognize his processing ability.  

Guys are open in part because of how well he uses his eyes and feet, and also in part to how quickly he recognizes coverages of all types. This is a positive, not a negative, the fact that this is seen as a negative trait is pure garbage.  If he waited longer to throw like other QB's the guys would be more covered.  How many people won MVP by not throwing to open guys?   

Again, I need someone to explain this to me...How exactly did Mahomes have 54% of his passing yards come from YAC last season with lesser weapons and how did rank amongst the best in uncontested throws? How does that happen? Did he get penalized for having Andy Reid as his HC? 

And yes, now all throws need to be contested or else it takes away from the QB. Shanny is great but now he's getting credit for the Cardinals being a terrible defensive team and letting CMC go free down the sidelines lol. 

[Forge]

58 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

 

What exactly am I supposed to take from his article? 

Just the data, which you can then use however you wish. Its no different than an article from Lombardi regaling us with statistical reasons why Purdy is the MVP. You can be sure that he wouldn't add any context to his positive stats either. That's just the way it goes. Items such as contested catch rate is good data I didn't have before, though ultimately it doesn't move the needle. 

The funny thing to me is how everyone who writes an argument seems to feel like they have discovered the wheel or something. Everyone knows Purdy has an awesome supporting cast and that his statistics are partially inflated by this. This is not something that should be debated, but anti purdy stances typically treat it like new information or that nobody has ever had this happen before. You don't get to 10 yards an attempt or have an epa that high without both a QB playing well and an awesome team. 

The articles are just noise. Do his statistics overcome the perceived difference in the quality of his teammates compared to his most likely competitors for the award? 

I generally agree with what some have said in Gen that supporting casts haven't largely mattered for MVP voters in the past, however this feels different to me. I feel like Brock Purdy is the breaking point for some people.  If supporting casts mattered previously, I think we would see more wild card level QBs win this award and we don't. You can basically cut down your MVP down to the QB of the 1-2 seed of each conference every year. 

This year though, it feels like there is an anti-purdy agenda for the award. Danny G posted a meme about this which was funny, but also feels truthful. That's not to say that people are pushing back on the idea that Purdy is a good qb (I believe some are, but I Don't think that's the overwhelming consensus), but I think people are highly resistant to give him the MVP. Perfect example: 

CBS has an MVP power ranking that involves Will Brinson and company. Before last week, Dak was #1, Purdy #2, Lamar #5. 

After a game where Dak sucked, Purdy threw 4 TDs against a poor opponent and Lamar was good, but not really special against Jax,  somehow Lamar jumped to #1 on their ranking and Purdy stayed #2. That to me feels like anti purdy mvp agenda. 0 reason for that to happen. That says to me that the care is more about Purdy not being the MVP than it is about Lamar deserving it (to be clear, I have no issues Lamar or Josh Allen as the MVP if the vote goes that way, I'm specifically talking about CBS's change week to week). This is why I think that Purdy ultimately won't win. I think too many people are going to refuse to have him at the top and I think that there are going to be some super big brain people who put CMC in the top 5 and just leave Purdy off completely. 

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

22 minutes ago, Forge said:

Just the data, which you can then use however you wish. Its no different than an article from Lombardi regaling us with statistical reasons why Purdy is the MVP. You can be sure that he wouldn't add any context to his positive stats either. That's just the way it goes. Items such as contested catch rate is good data I didn't have before, though ultimately it doesn't move the needle. 

The funny thing to me is how everyone who writes an argument seems to feel like they have discovered the wheel or something. Everyone knows Purdy has an awesome supporting cast and that his statistics are partially inflated by this. This is not something that should be debated, but anti purdy stances typically treat it like new information or that nobody has ever had this happen before. You don't get to 10 yards an attempt or have an epa that high without both a QB playing well and an awesome team. 

The articles are just noise. Do his statistics overcome the perceived difference in the quality of his teammates compared to his most likely competitors for the award? 

I generally agree with what some have said in Gen that supporting casts haven't largely mattered for MVP voters in the past, however this feels different to me. I feel like Brock Purdy is the breaking point for some people.  If supporting casts mattered previously, I think we would see more wild card level QBs win this award and we don't. You can basically cut down your MVP down to the QB of the 1-2 seed of each conference every year. 

This year though, it feels like there is an anti-purdy agenda for the award. Danny G posted a meme about this which was funny, but also feels truthful. That's not to say that people are pushing back on the idea that Purdy is a good qb (I believe some are, but I Don't think that's the overwhelming consensus), but I think people are highly resistant to give him the MVP. Perfect example: 

CBS has an MVP power ranking that involves Will Brinson and company. Before last week, Dak was #1, Purdy #2, Lamar #5. 

After a game where Dak sucked, Purdy threw 4 TDs against a poor opponent and Lamar was good, but not really special against Jax,  somehow Lamar jumped to #1 on their ranking and Purdy stayed #2. That to me feels like anti purdy mvp agenda. 0 reason for that to happen. That says to me that the care is more about Purdy not being the MVP than it is about Lamar deserving it (to be clear, I have no issues Lamar or Josh Allen as the MVP if the vote goes that way, I'm specifically talking about CBS's change week to week). This is why I think that Purdy ultimately won't win. I think too many people are going to refuse to have him at the top and I think that there are going to be some super big brain people who put CMC in the top 5 and just leave Purdy off completely. 

 

Yes, Lombardi is on the opposite end of the spectrum but I've largely avoided his Purdy articles. We already know what he is going to say and there is going to be hardly any of his actual analysis but him listing every stat that makes Purdy look great. 

The problem I have with this article is the stats are being used incorrectly and his actual opinion here is not reality. There's some REAL analysis out there that can show someone else being the MVP over Purdy. This article just was not one of them. This guy has the same problem as Lombardi. They find stats to support their argument but don't actually know what the stats are really telling. So it's largely meh, even though he thought he found some stats to dispel the myth of Purdy being the MVP. 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

I think the media hate is coming from Big Casino, there must be a lot of +5000 Purdy for MVP tickets floating around out there.  

[J-ALL-DAY]

40 minutes ago, Forge said:

CBS has an MVP power ranking that involves Will Brinson and company. Before last week, Dak was #1, Purdy #2, Lamar #5. 

After a game where Dak sucked, Purdy threw 4 TDs against a poor opponent and Lamar was good, but not really special against Jax,  somehow Lamar jumped to #1 on their ranking and Purdy stayed #2. That to me feels like anti purdy mvp agenda. 0 reason for that to happen. That says to me that the care is more about Purdy not being the MVP than it is about Lamar deserving it (to be clear, I have no issues Lamar or Josh Allen as the MVP if the vote goes that way, I'm specifically talking about CBS's change week to week). This is why I think that Purdy ultimately won't win. I think too many people are going to refuse to have him at the top and I think that there are going to be some super big brain people who put CMC in the top 5 and just leave Purdy off completely. 

 

Forgot to add.....But like Purdy is a huge favorite tight now. Even though there are some folks LOUD in the media about him not being the MVP, he's going to win it as long as he performs how he has been performing on Monday night. If the Niners win and he has another good game? It's his award and the betting odds will reflect that. The loud people in the media aren't all voters. The media has tried its best to push different players for MVP aside from Purdy, true. But eventually you just can't do anything about it lol. Like if he has a good game on Monday night and wins, that will all but knock Lamar out of the race...Hurts is out of the race....Bills have not won enough games....Mahomes has a down statistical year....Dak just had a huge stinker and head to head, Purdy played much better. So that's why recently you have started to hear CMC's name. He's having a great year but just not special enough for a RB to win the MVP. 

[typecast]

Is there a list of the TWPs publicly available?

[typecast]

1 hour ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

I think the media hate is coming from Big Casino, there must be a lot of +5000 Purdy for MVP tickets floating around out there.  

 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

2 minutes ago, typecast said:

 

That is just one, for the line to move that far(currently at -190), there has to be a TON of tickets out there.

Buying media member's opinions is significantly easier than fixing a game.

[Forge]

3 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

That is just one, for the line to move that far(currently at -190), there has to be a TON of tickets out there.

Buying media member's opinions is significantly easier than fixing a game.

Adam Pullen says Purdy is the biggest loser for William Hill / Caesars. They are 7 figures deep, currently.

[Herodreamer79]

Pat Mahomes 2018 MVP season: 
580 passes. 66% comp. 5369 yards. 52 TDs. 12 INTs. 113.8  
Brock Purdy's NFL career. 
545 passes. 69% comp. 5320 yards. 45 TDs. 11 INTs. 115.4

[typecast]

 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

17 minutes ago, typecast said:

 

Like, what even is this?

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420 said:

Like, what even is this?

It's just a graph showing which QBs Steven Ruiz likes and which ones pff likes 

[Steve_DeBerg_Fan_420]

21 minutes ago, Forge said:

It's just a graph showing which QBs Steven Ruiz likes and which ones pff likes 

Nice, makes me want to create a graph of things I like.