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Era Adjusted Passing: The Proper Way to Compare QBs


HerbertGOAT

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On 12/15/2023 at 11:46 AM, MaddHatter said:

That being said, these "era adjusted stats" don't take into consideration weapons (Brady had nobody, Manning had HOFers) 

Randy Moss

Aaron Hernandez

Gronk

Welker / Edelman

and then goes to TB and has

Evans, Godwin, Gronk again

I mean sure he went years with scrubs mainly at the WR2 and beyond position but arguably had the GOAT WR and GOAT TE for much of his prime.

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5 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Randy Moss

Aaron Hernandez

Gronk

Welker / Edelman

and then goes to TB and has

Evans, Godwin, Gronk again

I mean sure he went years with scrubs mainly at the WR2 and beyond position but arguably had the GOAT WR and GOAT TE for much of his prime.

His defenses were loaded.

and he had the only RBs pass catching at the time. Not to mention he also had Cory Dillon. 
 

Ty Law, Rodney Harrison, Junio Seau, Vince Wilfork, Willis McGinest, Teddy Bruschi, Asante Samuel, Lawyer Milloy, Stephon Gilmore, Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich, Trey Flowers, Jerod Mayo, Patrick Chung, Malcom, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrable 

Butler, Devin Mccourty, 

His Oline was always goated. 
Nate Solder

Sebastian Vollmer

Joe Thuney 

David Andrews


Matt light 

Trent Brown. 

 

 

Feels like over 90 probowlers there, countless all pros. Brady played with an insane amount of talent… 

 

 

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8 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Randy Moss

Aaron Hernandez

Gronk

Welker / Edelman

and then goes to TB and has

Evans, Godwin, Gronk again

I mean sure he went years with scrubs mainly at the WR2 and beyond position but arguably had the GOAT WR and GOAT TE for much of his prime.

He played with Moss for 2 seasons. Come on, now.

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10 hours ago, El Ramster said:

I threw up once I saw Goff over Staff. They’re not even in the same planet. One can carry a football team, the other needs to be carried. Reported for this!

Goff started half the seasons of Stafford, and had 4 of his 7 (at the time) eligible seasons with McVay. Stafford threw a ton in DET (hurting his rate) stats and also had terrible coaching and support for most of his career. This stat is definitely not the be-all-end-all, context is still key.

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I did something vaguely similar a while back (haven't updated in about five or so years) as a Hall of Fame predictor. Only looking at QBs who played a sizable chunk of their careers in the Super Bowl era, I took their top 10 qualifying seasons, used 90s (1 standard deviation below the mean) for any seasons fewer than 10 that they had. This rewarded longevity by letting QBs who started for a long time remove any early or late career struggles while also emphasizing peak performance. I also gave bonus points for MVPs and Super Bowl wins.

I can't remember which of Brady, Manning or Montana was leading when I stopped, but I think Brady's last Super Bowl probably would have put him over the top if he wasn't already. Then if I remember correctly it was Unitas, Young, Rodgers and Favre in some order, Starr and Tarkenton, and then Marino, Brees and Staubach.

The big thing, though, was that it correctly placed all but two eligible quarterbacks correctly in or out of the Hall at that time. It had Ken Anderson just a bit behind Marino/Brees/Staubach and Joe Namath nowhere close to the other Hall of Fame QBs. I did have to move the line a bit, though, when Ken Stabler went from the best quarterback by this metric not in the Hall (non-Ken Anderson division) to the worst quarterback by this metric in the Hall (non-Joe Namath division).

Elway fared a little better in this model, although still lower than he would traditionally be placed on all-time lists.

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