pgwingman Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 (edited) 2024 PACKERS MOCK OFFSEASON: VERSION 3.0 (cap updates with Love extension) OK folks, this version 3.0 of Wingman’s mock was originally set to imagine a scenario where Jaire is traded. However, that situation seems to have blown over and my current hope is that a new DC helps mend fences. This mock will deal a some cap updates, including a Jordan Love extension. Cap Situation Spotrac currently lists the Packers with $9m in 2024 cap, with 40 players signed. Green Bay Packers Roster manager | Spotrac (It shows 43, but Nijman, Savage and Nixon are on void year deals that expire). The dead caps from these releases removes $2m.[Cap goes $9m - $2m = $7m] There’s some ERFA who will certainly be resigned for $1m a piece: Dan Whelan, Emmanuel Wilson, Caleb Jones, and Benny Sapp. For simplicity, let's sign Whelan and Wilson. [Cap goes $7m - $2m = $5m, 42 players signed.] Overthecap is predicting $14m for the 2024 draft class (11 total picks: 7 original picks, Jets 2nd round, Bills 3rd, minus 5th rounder, 3 comp picks). NFL Draft Resources and Contract Estimates (overthecap.com) [$5m - $14 = -$9m cap space, 53 players signed]. The team probably needs another $7m going into the season for extensions/signings and $5m for practice squad salaries and inseason elevation. Another $10m in salary increases coming from proven performance escalators and Jordan Love’s contract incentives ($4.5m for Love, $1.5m for Myers, $2m for Royce Newman, $2m for TJ Slaton). [-$9m - $7m - $5m - $10m = -$31m before signings] This is an oversimplification of the offseason. But this gets us pretty close to understanding where the Packers are going into 2024. So what are the options to free up cap space? Well, here’s the candidates: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Player 2024 Cap Hit 2024 Base Salary (Roster Bonus) Avail. via release Dead Cap if Released/ Traded Wingmans “savings estimate” Aaron Jones $18m $11m $5m $12m $5m (pay cut) David Bakhtiari $40m $11m ($10m) $20m $19m $7m (pay cut) Elgton Jenkins $14m $4m ($5m) $0 $14m $5m (restructure) Kenny Clark $27m $15m $3m $24m $6m (extension) Preston Smith $17m $6m ($5m) $3m $14m $6m (restructure) De’Vondre Campbell $14m $7m ($3m) $3m $11m $6m (restructure) Jaire Alexander $24m $7m ($8m) -$3m $27m $10m (restructure) Royce Newman $3m $3m $3m $0m - Darnell Savage (void) ? $1m + $?m - $5m $3m (kinda) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Wingman’s take: I’ve bolded all my proposed moves. With Dillon set to reach UFA, I’d hate to release Jones as well. I’d also hate to restructure him, his dead cap hit is already $12m and this team is done pushing out cap hits. I’d argue his open market value is $6m, so that’s what I’d offer him (his base salary is $11m, so his $6m contract would be a net $5m savings). In the end, you save as much by cutting Jones as you do with a pay cut. [-$31m + $5m =-$26m over the cap, 53 players signed] Bakh is currently on the roster in 2024, scheduled for a $40m cap hit ($19m dead). The Packers will be desperate for his $20m in savings.It’s been a great run, but this is a tough business and an even tougher goodbye. [-$26m + $20m =$6m over the cap, 52 players signed] Jenkins’s restructure makes sense, but we’ll get to that later when Jordan Love is extended. Kenny Clark probably already wants a new deal, and he’s largely worth it. I’ll assume he extends for $20m/year (good for about 6th in the league in terms of annual average value) for another 3 years, allowing GB to convert $8m of his 2024 salary into signing bonus, lowering his 2024 cap hit from $27m to $21m, giving us $6m in savings. Shoring up this contract might be the final step in resolving our “kicking the can” period. [-$6m + $6m =$0m under the cap, 52 players signed] Preston’s play is great, but he’s somewhat redundant with Lukas Van Ness, so I see him as a trade candidate. Cutting him before free agency saves $11m but incurs a $14m dead cap hit. Given his talent and age, he’s probably fairly priced, so not worth more than a very late round pick. For now, I’ll keep him here. Regarding Campbell, I’m hoping a season with a new coordinator does him some good. Cutting him doesn’t do you much good this year, but his play has dipped enough to make me concerned about pushing out cap hits. Jaire is another reasonable move to free up cap space, but we might need it for a Jordan Love extension. Royce Newman is an easy cut for me. Even though he’s under contract for a million, he’s actually due $2m in Proven Performance Escalators, which largely come from his snap counts his rookie year. [$0m + $3m =$3m under the cap, 51 players signed] Darnell Savage is a unique case. He’s had a nice season in a contract year. If he leaves in free agency, he probably sees a short term deal for $6m/year, so he might benefit from a prove-it year in the hopes of landing a larger contract. But here’s the kicker, he would also leave behind a $5m dead cap if he leaves in free agency. If I’m Gute, I’d offer him something like $6m in 2024, with a $1m salary and $5m as a signing bonus. His cap hit would be $2m this year, and the signing bonus would go out on his void years. He fills a team need at safety, and his cap hit would go from $5m to $2m. You would be pushing another $4m out as future dead cap hits, but I’m still holding out hope that a new DC helps Savage realize his first round potential. [$3m+ $3m = $6m under the cap, 52 players signed] SPENDING With my massive $6m free agent budget, I’ll resign AJ Dillon for $5m/year. [$6m - $5m = $1m under the cap, 53 players signed] Then comes Jordan Love’s extension. His cap floor is $12m, plus whatever signing bonus comes in an extension. Using Herber, Jackson and Burrow as examples, Love’s signing bonus on an extension would add between $3m-$14m to the 2024 salary cap. I’ll go with the lower end and assume $5m. This may need to come from that Elgton Jenkins restructure we passed on earlier. For those interested in more spending, recall our remaining options to free up cap space included Preston, Campbell, and Jaire for roughly $22m. I really loathe doing this unless it’s absolutely necessary. Preson DEPARTURES (with anticipated annual value, in case you want to swap out a player) Offense: Jon Runyan($3m), Yosh Nijman, Josiah Deguara, Patrick Taylor Defense: Keisean Nixon($5m), Rudy Ford ($4m), Jonathan Owens ($2m) Special Teams: Robert Rochell, Eric Wilson, Tyler Davis, Corey Ballentine 2024 ROSTER OUTLOOK (Resigned), [Free Agent in 2025], Released Pos. ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 Current Roster Outlook QB 2 2 2 Love, Clifford Great RB 2 3 3 Jones, (Dillon), Wilson Replace Jones in 2025, mid round WR 7 6 6 Watson, Reed, Doubs, Wicks, Melton, Heath none TE 4 4 3 Musgrave, Kraft, Sims ST backup, late round pick. IOL 6 5 3 [Myers],Jenkins, Newman, Rhyan At least an early and a late OT 4 5 3 Bakh, Tom, Walker, Tenuta Several backups DT 6 5 5 Clark, Wyatt, [Slaton], Brooks, Wooden Nothing unless BPA dictates EDGE 5 5 5 Smith, Gary, LVN, Enagbare, Cox Nothing unless BPA dictates ILB 4 5 3 Campbell, Quay, [McDuffie] Backup or two. Mid-late round. CB 5 5 3 Alexander, [Stokes], Valentine Several starters. Early and often S 5 5 3 (Savage), AJJ, Anderson Several starters. Early and often ST 3 3 3 Carlson, Whelan, Orzech none 2024 Current Total = 42 + 11 draft picks NFL DRAFT NFL Draft Resources and Contract Estimates (overthecap.com) A note, Packers have 11 picks and the third most draft capital to use per overthecap, behind the Bears and Cards -Packers receive 4th and two 6th round comp picks, projected by Overthecap -Packer receive the Jets second round pick, Eagles second round pick, Bills 3rd round pick ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ROUND 1, PICK 19 OVERALL: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama Logic: This secondary scares me a bit. Valentine seems like a nice CB3, Stokes is an unknown in a contract year. You can’t have too many DBs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 2, PICK 9, 41 OVERALL: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State Logic: This can be a tricky spot. CBs are available, but no more safeties. We just missed out on Jordan Morgan, Troy Fautanau, and Graham Barton. For now, I’ll just take a free pick on a high upside guy like Chop, who's fallen to us. He displaces Brenton Cox off the roster and probably helps us move on from Preston after next year. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 2, PICK 18, 50 OVERALL: Rod Moore, S, Michigan Logic: Pairs alongside Savage. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 3, PICK 19, 83 OVERALL: Dominick Puni, OT/OG, Kansas Logic: Fits the GB mold of drafting a LT with position versatility (he played a season at LG and LT). Puni becomes the new RG. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 3, PICK 28, 92 OVERALL (from BUF): Javon Bullard, S, Georgia Logic: Depth at safety for now. Has a forced incompletion rate of 26.9%, one of the highest in the nation ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 4, PICK 19, 119 OVERALL: Khyri Jackson, CB, Oregon Logic: Backup CB. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 4, PICK 36, 135 OVERALL (Allen Lazard comp pick): Ray Davis, HB, Kentucky Logic: Third down back. Learns the rope from Jones and takes over next year. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 6, PICK 19, 197 OVERALL: JC Davis, OT, New Mexico Logic: Two year starter at LT who grades well on pass blocking. I’d predict a backup tackle in this slot even if Davis is not the choice. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (remaining picks ignored, but safe to say they go toward minor needs) CONCLUDING THOUGHTS The main purpose of the mock was to mock out the cap constraints Gute faces going into the 2024 season now that some cap adjustments have come in. With a Jordan Love contract on the horizon, I wanted to speculate on his increased cap hit and its ramifications. I've got another $27m available to free up via restructures if Loves signing bonus gets bigger, or I need some free agent spending money via Preston, DeVondre, and Jaire. But for now, I'm happy knowing I haven't pushed out more money into 2025. One item of note, Slaton, McDuffie, and Stokes are the only free agents due money in 2025 when cap situation that should be much healthier. So maybe the next mock we'll examine what that might look like. Comment below with your thoughts. Thank you for reading. P.S. if someone has a nice template for mock drafts that you can copy/paste into this site easily please PM. Google docs doesn't paste well and my microsoft account doesn't paste tables well. thanks. Edited January 13 by pgwingman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tperk Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Thats alot of DBs to draft in the top 120. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 1 hour ago, Tperk said: Thats alot of DBs to draft in the top 120. Yeah I think I agree. Now that I look at what I got, I think I'd rather use the $5m I spent on Dillon to keep Ballentine and Rudy Ford. It would give us a lot more flexibility in the draft. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
landoc88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Once again the Packers spend most of there draft capital on defense. When dose it come to a point about drafting all defense and still can't get it right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Any chance you could make the font a little bit smaller? It's way too big with a magnifying glass! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refugee Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Interesting take and shows why keeping Sul was likely not in the cards next year even if he would have been a good value. I think we get a 5th rd comp for Lazard. I also hope we fortify the OLine more than you have here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eternal Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The white hurts my eyes! (Using dark theme) All the text is using a white background with black font Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, Refugee said: Interesting take and shows why keeping Sul was likely not in the cards next year even if he would have been a good value. I think we get a 5th rd comp for Lazard. I also hope we fortify the OLine more than you have here. Is this based on his production? Every site I've seen has us getting a 4th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, Refugee said: Interesting take and shows why keeping Sul was likely not in the cards next year even if he would have been a good value. I think we get a 5th rd comp for Lazard. I also hope we fortify the OLine more than you have here. Thanks. Yeah, in my first mock I did back in October, when this team was on a losing streak, I couldn't help but notice that Sul was the guy who offered the most cap savings if cut. Getting trade value out of his departure was almost and afterthought. We'll have to see when comp picks come out. I was using PFF's mock draft simulator, which has GB netting a 4th for the Lazard comp pick, but overthecap is projecting a 5th. I'm torn on the Oline fortifications. I think our starting 5 could already be set for next year: Walker, Jenkins, Myers, Rhyan, Tom. So if that's the case, how early do you want to address it? That being said, I also think we could afford to upgrade any single spot on the line if the right player fell to us. So for now, I'm sorta just taking a chance that we can find mid-late rounders who just need a year of development rather than a plug and play starter. But I certainly agree with your point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 15 minutes ago, Eternal said: The white hurts my eyes! (Using dark theme) All the text is using a white background with black font I had no idea this site has a dark mode? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Refugee Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, Old Guy said: Is this based on his production? Every site I've seen has us getting a 4th. Based on the few sites I look at (OTC, Tankathon) I thought we get a 5th. I’m no expert and even they don’t know what sorcery is used to determine comps so I’ll be very happy if we get the 4th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eternal Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 (edited) @pgwingman At the very bottom of site there is a Theme option. I've been using it for years Edited January 14 by Eternal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, Refugee said: Based on the few sites I look at (OTC, Tankathon) I thought we get a 5th. I’m no expert and even they don’t know what sorcery is used to determine comps so I’ll be very happy if we get the 4th. Yep, I was mistaken, you are correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 3 hours ago, Eternal said: @pgwingman At the very bottom of site there is a Theme option. I've been using it for years Oh my this is awesome, thanks for the tip. Yeah, it does make the original post look like crap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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