Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, Towerbridge said: If that were true most coaches would go for it on 4th there. They would kick the field goal. If your field goal kicker is complete crap I could understand The lions kicker is crap, that's kind of the whole point of this. If he were even a 70% guy at that range there would be more of a leg to stand on. Badgely is straight up one of the worst in the league from that range and he converts those kicks less successfully than the Lions convert those 4th down opportunities. Again, that's assuming that Campbell even pays attention to this though. We are assuming "analytics" because he was aggressive, when in truth he could have just been biting kneecaps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Forge said: 3 minutes ago, Forge said: Sure....just tell people how to quantify momentum and it can be added in. What are the figures for momentum? Is a missed field goal worth less momentum to the other side than a 4th down stop? If so, by how much? How much does impact does momentum have on a play? Does momentum juice the team with it, or impair the team withstanding it? Did momentum make Reynolds drop the ball? Yeah, and when you do have all of the momentum as Detroit did before the 4th down try, do you protect it all costs even if it means going against who you are or do you try to maximize it and choke your opponent out? Edited January 30 by Jameson_Neat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Towerbridge said: If that field goal was a 53-55 yarder, I could understand going for it. It was under 50. You kick it. Badgely's career from that range is less than 60% Lions success rate in those situation this year was nearly 80% Why are you kicking? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Towerbridge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Forge said: Badgely's career from that range is less than 60% Lions success rate in those situation this year was nearly 80% Why are you kicking? Still too risky. If it was 4th and 1 maybe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, Towerbridge said: Still too risky. If it was 4th and 1 maybe So even though the numbers actually tell you that it has a higher rate of success, from that distance, than a field goal kick, it's somehow the one that is too risky? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 There are times to wage war on the aggressiveness of analytics. When the "aggressive" go for it call is less risky than the field goal is probably not one of those times. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Towerbridge said: Still too risky. If it was 4th and 1 maybe Detroit's offense had been walking the 49ers defense up and down the field up to that point. They also had three prior short yardage plays in this game and converted all three into first downs. Nothing points to trying the FG here except knowing that the 4th down play wasn't successful. Edited January 30 by Jameson_Neat 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Towerbridge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 minutes ago, Jameson_Neat said: Detroit's offense had been walking the 49ers defense up and down the field up to that point. They also had three prior short yardage plays in this game and converted all three into first downs. Nothing points to trying the FG here except knowing that the 4th down play wasn't successful. And yet by some weird, wild coincidence both 4th down calls didn't work. You kick the FG. It is what it is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Towerbridge said: And yet by some weird, wild coincidence both 4th down calls didn't work. You kick the FG. It is what it is Because they aren't 100%....but weirdly, neither is the field goal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 On 1/29/2024 at 1:16 PM, nicfre2011 said: But don't you have to consider the possible outcomes when you are making the decision? Every decision as a head coach is a calculated risk and the only "good" decisions is the one that help contribute to a favorable outcome. I guess that I really don't get the decision to forego a field goal attempt and add precious points on the second failed 4th down where the 49ers went up by 10, which was the nail in the coffin. If Campbell has zero faith in his kicker then I can understand the decision, but to get within 3 points then and have to roll with the odds of getting an onside kick and then sending out your kicker for a game winning (zero faith in?), seems like you are rolling with horrible odds. When we played the 49ers the week before our HC decided to forgo taking a FG in the first half and those 3 points ended up the difference in the game. The distance was practically a chip shot too. I must be old fashioned. I say take the points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 23 hours ago, Jameson_Neat said: Maybe? We still don't know what Campbell would do with a better kicking game as he's never had one. I'd guess he might move that 43-45 outdoors to 48-50 and still go a lot more than most. Campbell is a gambler. On Thanksgiving he decided to go for it on 4th down on the Packers' 35 yard line but they didn't get it so his aggressiveness in the NFCC game isn't the first time it bit his team in the fanny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 hours ago, Jameson_Neat said: Most treat the FG as automatic points and the 4th down try as a gamble, right? The argument is if you can get to 17 at that point in the game you take it every time. What happens if we treat them as both automatic? Let's say Campbell trots out Badgley and he drills the FG but the 9ers are offsides. Do you keep the points on the board and stay with the 17 point lead or take the first down at the 22 only up 14? There you take the first down and eat up more clock. Then you have a chance to get even closer or score a TD on that drive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forge Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 minute ago, Pugger said: When we played the 49ers the week before our HC decided to forgo taking a FG in the first half and those 3 points ended up the difference in the game. The distance was practically a chip shot too. I must be old fashioned. I say take the points. The thing is that it cuts both ways and that's what the "kick the fg" people don't acknowledge. All people want to do is bash the result when you're aggressive and go and it fails. The fact is, teams lose games because they attempt field goals as well. Analytics is just data to help you streamline decision making. What decision you make is ultimately on you. Why is there so much more passing in the league now? That's analytics. Why was there a 3 point revolution in the NBA? That's analytics. People advocating for kicking the field goal to go up 3 scores? That's honestly just analytics lol. It's not some voodoo scary boogeyman, and to this case specifically, looking at the numbers that have been reported, the idea that I would present to you the odds of two outcomes, one at 59% and the other at 75%, and you would prefer the 59% path because it's "safer" is kind of crazy? If i offered to teach you how to count cards and you were like, "nah, i'm good...it's just common sense", that would just be dumb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jameson_Neat Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, Pugger said: Campbell is a gambler. On Thanksgiving he decided to go for it on 4th down on the Packers' 35 yard line but they didn't get it so his aggressiveness in the NFCC game isn't the first time it bit his team in the fanny. He owned up and said it was the wrong call against the Pack. That type of call definitely was a true against the odds gamble. These 4th down calls are coin flip decisions in which a HC went with his best, most trusted guys and most are burying him for it. Should have went with his unreliable kicker who's last outdoor kick was a missed 41 yarder over a year ago instead. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nagahide13 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Lions having a reliable kicker would have been worth at least 2 extra wins during the season. They'll definitely address it this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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