2023: Super Bowl LVIII vs San Fansisco

[Chiefer]

On 2/13/2024 at 4:28 PM, Jakuvious said:

Our guys are better than yours.

I had a feeling what the gameplan would be after I saw this pre-SB

Myles says to beat the 9ers, you gotta a)play Man Coverage, no easy throws, no YaC. B) DTs have to win, and you have to get interiror pressure 

I was pretty confident the Defense would play very well after I heard that, that’s our bread and butter.

[onejayhawk]

6 hours ago, KC_Guy said:

and I think they got decend depth at those critical positions to start with.

Yes, they need another WR. But Justin Watson, Skye Moore are in the background - at minimum.
Yes, it is hard to replace Chris Jones. Pennel? That unspellable DE? The DL is probably the unit needing most attention with a lot of guys on expiring contracts.
DB - McDuffie, Conner, Cook (back from IR), Reid, Watson, Williams ... there are shabbier units out there.
LB should be fine, RB is plug and play.
TE - another year or more of Kelce with Gray and Fortson in the mix  ...
OL - they need a T other than that  .. fine. Big turnover will happen next year when the whole unit may fall apart. Gotta consider this this year already to maintain continuity!

If I had to choose two big name free agent deals:

Sneed and Jones both on 5 year three digit deals with an out option after three years.
After that: WR.

Keeping Nnadi may be nice if affordable.

And for the draft beef up on (in that order): OL, WR, DL, DB

Where is the money to sign Jones and Sneed supposed to come from? Jones made $19.5 MM plus incentives.  He might get $30 MM on the market. Sneed only made $1 MM but Charvarious Ward signed for $15/year and Sneed is a much better player.

We have Omenihu under contract for a year. Nnadi and Wharton are affordable and that makes a rotation. The draft is a viable option. That said, we need at least another DL. If not Jones, then someone noticeable. Where does FAU fit in?

Gay and Tranquill are both expired. Gay is already saying goodbyes because he understands the cap situation. Bolton and Chenal are a great start but not a whole LB corps. 

Kelce is under conract. Gray, Fortson, etc. are negotiable. 

OL is fine for a year though another OT would be nice. We will see what Wanya Morris has to offer. Next year has some big questions.
 

[onejayhawk]

Another film breakdown of the OT drive. This one has some chops.

 

[Jakuvious]

22 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Where is the money to sign Jones and Sneed supposed to come from? Jones made $19.5 MM plus incentives.  He might get $30 MM on the market. Sneed only made $1 MM but Charvarious Ward signed for $15/year and Sneed is a much better player.

We have Omenihu under contract for a year. Nnadi and Wharton are affordable and that makes a rotation. The draft is a viable option. That said, we need at least another DL. If not Jones, then someone noticeable. Where does FAU fit in?

Gay and Tranquill are both expired. Gay is already saying goodbyes because he understands the cap situation. Bolton and Chenal are a great start but not a whole LB corps. 

Kelce is under conract. Gray, Fortson, etc. are negotiable. 

OL is fine for a year though another OT would be nice. We will see what Wanya Morris has to offer. Next year has some big questions.
 

First years of contracts are typically pretty cheap. Omenihu cost $4M this year. Taylor was $6M. Jones only cost $15M and $8M the first two years of his last deal. You don't need a ton of money immediately to extend both Sneed and Jones. So the bulk of the money would come when we're no longer paying Thuney/Taylor/Kelce. And if you need to this year, you get $12M cutting MVS, and can get up to $35M from the Mahomes restructure. May or may not be worth it, I trust Veach more than myself at this point to figure that out. But it's definitely doable if they want to.

[onejayhawk]

10 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

First years of contracts are typically pretty cheap. Omenihu cost $4M this year. Taylor was $6M. Jones only cost $15M and $8M the first two years of his last deal. You don't need a ton of money immediately to extend both Sneed and Jones. So the bulk of the money would come when we're no longer paying Thuney/Taylor/Kelce. And if you need to this year, you get $12M cutting MVS, and can get up to $35M from the Mahomes restructure. May or may not be worth it, I trust Veach more than myself at this point to figure that out. But it's definitely doable if they want to.

Normally I would agree but in Jones' case, I make an exception. He's worth $25 MM first year.

The one advantage we have is that incentives are more reachable. Chris Jones made a $19.5 MM base but added the following:

• 35% Snaps: $1M (LTBE)
• 50% Snaps: $1M (LTBE)
• 10 Sacks: $1.25M (LTBE)
• 1st Team All-Pro + Super Bowl Appearance: $1M (LTBE)
• Super Bowl Win: $2M (LTBE)

The first few he can get anywhere but the $3 MM for winning the Super Bowl is only realistic with 3-5 teams and we top the list. It matters that the team let him play in game #17, to earn the 10-sack bonus.

[EMAW_KSU]

1 hour ago, onejayhawk said:

Normally I would agree but in Jones' case, I make an exception. He's worth $25 MM first year.

The one advantage we have is that incentives are more reachable. Chris Jones made a $19.5 MM base but added the following:

• 35% Snaps: $1M (LTBE)
• 50% Snaps: $1M (LTBE)
• 10 Sacks: $1.25M (LTBE)
• 1st Team All-Pro + Super Bowl Appearance: $1M (LTBE)
• Super Bowl Win: $2M (LTBE)

The first few he can get anywhere but the $3 MM for winning the Super Bowl is only realistic with 3-5 teams and we top the list. It matters that the team let him play in game #17, to earn the 10-sack bonus.

It absolutely matters, I agree, and Beach went as far as to say they focused in doing things to mend bridges from last off-season.  I love Sneed but I think Jones is harder to replace, as you said though, I think with him you might be looking at a 2-3 year deal where he may play 2.  Less space to spread and or bury contract money.  Sneed is a 5 year contract for me all day long.

Tranquil seems to love KC, and if that means he’ll stay team friendly it’s a no brainier.  Willie, the truth is, we can’t re-sign everyone.  He’ll get more on the market and I think everyone knows that.  Would guess he’s always welcomed back here.  Kind of hoping GB signs him. Someone not mentioned that was certainly a weapon in some tight games this year is Townsend. Not going to demand a big number, but it’s still dollars.

[Jakuvious]

2 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Normally I would agree but in Jones' case, I make an exception. He's worth $25 MM first year.

It's not about worth though, and more just about how contracts are structured. He'll get more than $25M in the first year in terms of cash flow, because there will be a signing bonus. His cap hit won't be that though. Like, Tyreek signed a 4 year $120M deal, but his cap hit this year was only $13M. He got $52M guaranteed and a $25.5M signing bonus, so he got plenty of cash up front, but these deals are always backloaded. It makes no sense not to. Signing bonus gets the player their year one money, but you spread the cap hit to future years where the cap will be higher. Or look at any of the DT deals signed last year. Lawrence, Payne, Williams, Hargrave. All had like $6M - $8M cap hit this year, first year of the deal. Signing bonus got them money up front, so cash flow is balanced for the player, but cap hits are pushed to where the cap is higher. Sneed and Jones combined will probably be signed for like $45M - $50M per year, but their combined cap hits in 2024, wherever they sign, will probably be less than $20M. It's really not a question of if they can be afforded this year. It's a question of if they're worth it down the line.

[Chiefs_5627]

Nick Bolton got fine 8k for a horse collar tackle on Purdy, apparently. Pretty weak imo, especially considering he didn't even take him down 🤷

[EMAW_KSU]

7 hours ago, Jakuvious said:

It's not about worth though, and more just about how contracts are structured. He'll get more than $25M in the first year in terms of cash flow, because there will be a signing bonus. His cap hit won't be that though. Like, Tyreek signed a 4 year $120M deal, but his cap hit this year was only $13M. He got $52M guaranteed and a $25.5M signing bonus, so he got plenty of cash up front, but these deals are always backloaded. It makes no sense not to. Signing bonus gets the player their year one money, but you spread the cap hit to future years where the cap will be higher. Or look at any of the DT deals signed last year. Lawrence, Payne, Williams, Hargrave. All had like $6M - $8M cap hit this year, first year of the deal. Signing bonus got them money up front, so cash flow is balanced for the player, but cap hits are pushed to where the cap is higher. Sneed and Jones combined will probably be signed for like $45M - $50M per year, but their combined cap hits in 2024, wherever they sign, will probably be less than $20M. It's really not a question of if they can be afforded this year. It's a question of if they're worth it down the line.

The challenge with Jones’ contract is that it’s unlikely to be a long contract so less years to break up signing bonus.  He could also ask for full guarantee, which is risky after 30, not that’s he’s really shown any decline.

[Jakuvious]

45 minutes ago, EMAW_KSU said:

The challenge with Jones’ contract is that it’s unlikely to be a long contract so less years to break up signing bonus.  He could also ask for full guarantee, which is risky after 30, not that’s he’s really shown any decline.

What makes you think it will be a shorter deal? For Jones this is likely his last pay day, so I doubt he would want it to be. Hargrave just signed a 4 year deal at 30 last year. I would expect a 4 year deal where the last year is very unlikely to actually be played out. The dummy year inflates the numbers for the agent/player, spreads out the cap for the team. Also not unlike the Tyreek Hill deal, actually. Or the deals that we've given recently to guys like MVS, Jawaan Taylor (I'm immensely doubtful he earns that 2026 salary, might not even get the 2025 one), or even Kelce's deal, honestly.

Even if one side for some reason is adamant on a shorter deal, they could do void years. They don't like to, but they could.