Bears Officially Select Caleb Williams at 1.1

[dll2000]

6 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

The bye seems like a good time for a statistical checkpoint. After 6 games, Williams’ current pace:

65.3% comp., 3731 yards, 27 TD, 14 INT, 88.7 QB rating 

This would be one of the most prolific passing seasons in Bears history.

Removing game 1 (first game nerves) season pace:

68.2% comp., 4162 yards, 31 TD, 17 INT, 94.5 QB rating 

This would be the most prolific passing season in Bears history in terms of yards, TD passes and completion percentage (amongst full season starters).

Fellas… 

Leaving stats out of it. Just watching him play. 

Give him time in pocket (like last two games) and he will kill you.  That's what talented QBs do.  People who can't see that he is talented, I don't know what they are looking at.  

I don't know if we will always get that this year.  I think our Oline is still susceptible to bullrush in many spots.  So I think in high pressure rate games we will see some bad outings still.  But that is most QBs.  

He has a strong arm.  He has had good games in high wind.   Yes he has missed a lot of deep throws, but that isn't due to arm strength.  He just missed.  It happens.  

We know from HS and college and preseason and training camp and even in season this year he CAN throw the deep ball accurately.

His improvement is visible.  He learns from mistakes.  When asked questions he talks through problems and what he is seeing (I don't think he does that through his whole career with reporters).    But it shows he sees and thinks the game through.

I think we got a good one.  

To me his one major flaw is he isn't tall enough.  Going to be some batted balls in his career that could have been big plays due to his height.

But overall I am not regretting the pick one bit.  He is as advertised. 

 

 

 

 

[dll2000]

I think drunk Greg Braggs made a really good point on CHGO.

Caleb gives you margin of error.

In past we would whine forever about a missed deep throw or this other missed opportunity. 

 Remember all the Trubisky missed ones to Anthony Miller back in day? Pretty much torched both their career trajectories.

Good QBs can miss throws, they all do, because they make so many other ones.  You don't live and die with a few plays in a game.

Or talk endlessly about one missed TD opportunity.

 

 

[beardown3231]

I think when that murderers row begins November 24 of Minnesota-Detroit-SF + things will come back to earth but it's easy to see how talented he is. It's been obvious for years. What's impressive is how quickly and easily he went from a "bad teammate" to someone everyone loves

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, beardown3231 said:

I think when that murderers row begins November 24 of Minnesota-Detroit-SF + things will come back to earth but it's easy to see how talented he is. It's been obvious for years. What's impressive is how quickly and easily he went from a "bad teammate" to someone everyone loves

It’ll be interesting for sure to see what “back to earth” looks like for sure. 

[beardown3231]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

It’ll be interesting for sure to see what “back to earth” looks like for sure. 

He isn't going to be consistently having 110+ QB ratings against Detroit and Minnesota. I think he'll be a lot better than he was week 1 though

[AZBearsFan]

52 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

He isn't going to be consistently having 110+ QB ratings against Detroit and Minnesota. I think he'll be a lot better than he was week 1 though

I certainly don’t expect 110+ - not even the very top guys are 110+ consistently against top defenses… but I won’t say that him being in the 100 range is unrealistic either. 20/30 for 225 yds, 2 TD and 1 INT is a 97.2 rating. Is that in any way an unrealistic expectation for Caleb against Detroit? I sure don’t think so. 

[beardown3231]

7 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I certainly don’t expect 110+ - not even the very top guys are 110+ consistently against top defenses… but I won’t say that him being in the 100 range is unrealistic either. 20/30 for 225 yds, 2 TD and 1 INT is a 97.2 rating. Is that in any way an unrealistic expectation for Caleb against Detroit? I sure don’t think so. 

I don't think so either. I also think that's realistic and "back to earth" in comparison to 124+

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

On 10/15/2024 at 7:57 AM, AZBearsFan said:

The bye seems like a good time for a statistical checkpoint. After 6 games, Williams’ current pace:

65.3% comp., 3731 yards, 27 TD, 14 INT, 88.7 QB rating 

This would be one of the most prolific passing seasons in Bears history.

Removing game 1 (first game nerves) season pace:

68.2% comp., 4162 yards, 31 TD, 17 INT, 94.5 QB rating 

This would be the most prolific passing season in Bears history in terms of yards, TD passes and completion percentage (amongst full season starters).

Fellas… 

It's amazing.  I imagine this is what getting a chronic ailment cured feels like.  Truly strange and wonderful to have your QB in a high pressure situation and you're assuming he'll make it.  

I think sometimes the shadow tells the shape of the thing, and in this case the criticisms of Caleb (at least from people actually watching) are telling the story of a guy who has things to work on, but it's a short list and getting shorter every week.

The eye test is great.  He is handling the operation like a vet. He seems super certain when he makes changes, and while we don't know if the calls are correct at least heisn't afraid to do it.  Some of the balls look almost like crazy mistakes taht work out as they're so precise through traffic, but he keeps making em work. I LOVE the way he scrambles to keep the play alive and seems annoyed if he actually has to run, preferring instead to wait for someone to get open.  I think if you're an eleigible receiver you can't ever slow down even late in the play. 

Everyone seems prepared for some regression and I think that's rational, but the way he's playing is suggesting that that may just be to a more average level which is really encouraging. I'm excited to see him play better defenses instead of scared. 

[dll2000]

16 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

I think when that murderers row begins November 24 of Minnesota-Detroit-SF + things will come back to earth but it's easy to see how talented he is. It's been obvious for years. What's impressive is how quickly and easily he went from a "bad teammate" to someone everyone loves

I had a back and forth with some guy in general about that. Saying he is arrogant and selfish and all that.  

Same thread where many were basically calling him a bust because of start.  

I forget name of it.   Something about Caleb.  

Edited Wednesday at 02:04 PM by dll2000

[dll2000]

16 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

I think when that murderers row begins November 24 of Minnesota-Detroit-SF + things will come back to earth but it's easy to see how talented he is. It's been obvious for years. What's impressive is how quickly and easily he went from a "bad teammate" to someone everyone loves

Teams with top DLs are going to be problems for us this year.  

MN is a problem because their DC is so aggressive.  

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

Teams with top DLs are going to be problems for us this year.  

MN is a problem because their DC is so aggressive.  

I've actually found myself watching Vikings games just to watch Brian Flores' game plans. It's crazy and risky and it also seems to work a lot.  I think the lack of a strong Bears running game is going to play right into his hands to be honest.  It's really going to put a lot of pressure on Caleb. There are going to be looks that he's never ever seen before,  and probably a lot of post snap rearranging to complicate matters further.  The best thing going is that Flus blitzed and pressured Caleb a lot in the summer. 

The two Vikings' games are going to be extremely interesting for assessing Caleb.  Both how he handles the D and also how much he learns between the two games.  If we're able to win either I'll be very happy. 

[dll2000]

13 minutes ago, BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW said:

I've actually found myself watching Vikings games just to watch Brian Flores' game plans. It's crazy and risky and it also seems to work a lot.  I think the lack of a strong Bears running game is going to play right into his hands to be honest.  It's really going to put a lot of pressure on Caleb. There are going to be looks that he's never ever seen before,  and probably a lot of post snap rearranging to complicate matters further.  The best thing going is that Flus blitzed and pressured Caleb a lot in the summer. 

The two Vikings' games are going to be extremely interesting for assessing Caleb.  Both how he handles the D and also how much he learns between the two games.  If we're able to win either I'll be very happy. 

Yes.  He is effective because he gambles to extremes.

He will do 0 blitzes OR drop 8 alternatively on many downs.  He will stack box on run plays and play prevent at end of half or game. 

This philosophy, while it may occasionally give up a big play, will result in a lot of 3 and outs.  Or shorter drives for offenses.  

It also can be extremely frustrating when it is working.  And that snowballs as well.  

It is 180 degrees from most of NFL at moment who is playing bend but don't break.  Playing for turnovers or penalty at some point on drive and not giving up any explosive plays or quick scores by letting players get behind you.   

IMO he has least amount of talent on defense in NFCN, but may have best defense.  He gets 90% of credit.  They were terrible before he got there.  

A lot of coaches who do this are good early and bad late.  Especially at HS and youth levels of football.  I think because they use it as a crutch and don't focus on details or fundamentals.  I don't think that is case with Flores.

One good thing is Bears have been preparing Caleb for this.  They blitzed the crap out of him in training camp.  

I think Caleb will eventually get really good at anticipating blitzes, but no QB can play good if team gives up quick pressure with one on one match ups.

But Flores will always kill a Justin Fields and it showed last year in a terrible way for us.  If you have a limitation, he is going to exploit it.   This guy has even completely shut down Lamar Jackson several times in past.

Flores is the reason we needed to draft Caleb IMO. 

 

 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

Yes.  He is effective because he gambles to extremes.

He will do 0 blitzes OR drop 8 alternatively on many downs.  He will stack box on run plays and play prevent at end of half or game. 

This philosophy, while it may occasionally give up a big play, will result in a lot of 3 and outs.  Or shorter drives for offenses.  

Flores... the AntiFlus? They are literally two extremes.  If they were both coaches on the same team they'd drive each other crazy. 

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

 

IMO he has least amount of talent on defense in NFCN, but may have best defense.  He gets 90% of credit.  They were terrible before he got there.  

A lot of coaches who do this are good early and bad late.  Especially at HS and youth levels of football.  I think because they use it as a crutch and don't focus on details or fundamentals.  I don't think that is case with Flores.

Let's hope it's partly true, at least for the Bears' sake.  Also kind of hoping they play some teams that expose the weaknesses and put a playbook out there. Like Fangio for the 2018 Rams.

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

One good thing is Bears have been preparing Caleb for this.  They blitzed the crap out of him in training camp.  

I think Caleb will eventually get really good at anticipating blitzes, but no QB can play good if team gives up quick pressure with one on one match ups.

That's the scary thing abotu that matchup,  we are REALLY not prepared to sustain while the QB takes a half second extra to figure it out.  The Vikings D is an awful matchup for an OL that can get pushed around and in.

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

But Flores will always kill a Justin Fields and it showed last year in a terrible way for us.  If you have a limitation, he is going to exploit it.   This guy has even completely shut down Lamar Jackson several times in past.

Flores is the reason we needed to draft Caleb IMO. 

 

 

I feel football smarter when we're on the same page. 

[dll2000]

9 minutes ago, BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW said:

 

I feel football smarter when we're on the same page. 

LOL.  But I am wrong so much.  But at least I am wrong with good reasoning I tell myself.  I blame a lot of my being wrong on being a Bears fan.  

I used to be smarter when I was coaching, but when I was coaching I didn't pay a ton of attention to NFL as coaching takes so much time.  

Farther I get away from coaching more things I forget.  I was at a huge party in August where a lot of parents and coaches of old teams were attending.   They were really pumping me up.  Saying very flattering things I don't know that I deserve. 

Honestly if I had to coach this year I think I would be terrible.  I can't remember my schemes or anything off hand.  I would have to relearn everything and probably make a lot of mistakes I learned not to make over years.  

My brain only holds so much info apparently.  It gets replaced by other things as I go.

 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

LOL.  But I am wrong so much.  But at least I am wrong with good reasoning I tell myself.  I blame a lot of my being wrong on being a Bears fan.  

I used to be smarter when I was coaching, but when I was coaching I didn't pay a ton of attention to NFL as coaching takes so much time.  

Farther I get away from coaching more things I forget.  I was at a huge party in August where a lot of parents and coaches of old teams were attending.   They were really pumping me up.  Saying very flattering things I don't know that I deserve. 

Honestly if I had to coach this year I think I would be terrible.  I can't remember my schemes or anything off hand.  I would have to relearn everything and probably make a lot of mistakes I learned not to make over years.  

My brain only holds so much info apparently.  It gets replaced by other things as I go.

 

It sounds like you had a research advantage when you were coaching, which was probably a lot harder even a decade ago.  You've talked a lot about going to clinics and cold calling coaches which seems like it's probably more than what most do. It seems like there are far more resources now so if someone wanted to they could really educate themselves and steal concepts easier.  Of course with more saturation it's tougher to tell what to do!  Lol to the thought of being in the first 3 years of a business and trying to do that now.