Jared Goff signed for additional 4 years/$212 Million

[Karnage84]

9 hours ago, idoubtit said:

In 2026, when your percentage of the three goes way up, either Sewell or SB could be released and we would save a huge amount of cap space. I'm not saying we would or should do that. It just points to how much flexibility we have. We could easily hang on if we thought we were right there or we could have a cap casualty and reload. We should be able to sustain if we keep drafting well.

We probably won't even have to do that. You can restructure deals, convert base salary to bonuses and reduce cap hit, etc. Keep in mind my projections are showing a modest 6.1% increase in the cap. It's probably closer to the 10-12%... So that's even more room. 

When Frank and Taylor retire, that's about $30M of cap room just right there. 

[idoubtit]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

We probably won't even have to do that. You can restructure deals, convert base salary to bonuses and reduce cap hit, etc. Keep in mind my projections are showing a modest 6.1% increase in the cap. It's probably closer to the 10-12%... So that's even more room. 

When Frank and Taylor retire, that's about $30M of cap room just right there. 

For sure. I'm just pointing out the flexibility.

[Karnage84]

11 hours ago, idoubtit said:

For sure. I'm just pointing out the flexibility.

Flexibility definitely doesn't hurt. 

[idoubtit]

OTC had put it the details on Goffs contract. https://overthecap.com/player/jared-goff/4714

2026 it's going to be interesting. The 2024 cap hit is a little less than I expected as is 2025. We now have over $30m space right now and $47m next year which could go up due to carryover.

[detfan782004]

4 hours ago, idoubtit said:

OTC had put it the details on Goffs contract. https://overthecap.com/player/jared-goff/4714

2026 it's going to be interesting. The 2024 cap hit is a little less than I expected as is 2025. We now have over $30m space right now and $47m next year which could go up due to carryover.

That's actually structured really well for roster makeup 

[Karnage84]

2 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

That's actually structured really well for roster makeup 

				Goff	St Brown	Sewell	TOTAL	% of Cap
0	2024	$255,400,000		$27,211,832	$4,862,315	$8,167,885	$40,242,032	15.8%
1	2025	$286,048,000		$32,600,000	$13,910,000	$9,540,000	$56,050,000	19.6%
2	2026	$320,373,760		$69,600,000	$33,110,000	$28,000,000	$130,710,000	40.8%
3	2027	$358,818,611		$54,600,000	$28,980,000	$32,000,000	$115,580,000	32.2%
4	2028	$401,876,845		$61,600,000	$26,010,000	$34,000,000	$121,610,000	30.3%
	2029	$450,102,066			$16,700,000	$27,000,000	$43,700,000	9.7%
	2030	$504,114,314			Void	Void	$0
	2031	$564,608,031			Void		$0
				Hurts	AJ Brown	L Johnson	TOTAL
0	2024	$255,400,000		$  13,558,800	$  11,878,894	$  15,865,000	$   41,302,694	16.2%
1	2025	$286,048,000		$  21,769,800	$  17,639,894	$  17,412,000	$   56,821,694	19.9%
2	2026	$320,373,760		$  31,771,800	$  23,509,895	$  18,699,000	$   73,980,695	23.1%
3	2027	$358,818,611		$  41,832,800	$  22,741,000	$  16,514,000	$   81,087,800	22.6%
4	2028	$401,876,845		$  47,149,000	$  27,624,000	$  22,476,000	$   97,249,000	24.2%
	2029	$450,102,066		$  97,553,000	$  29,307,000		$ 126,860,000	28.2%
	2030	$504,114,314		Void	$  53,520,000		$   53,520,000	10.6%
	2031	$564,608,031		Void	Void		$                       -
	2032				Void		$                       -
	2033				Void		$                       -

[detfan782004]

3 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

				Goff	St Brown	Sewell	TOTAL	% of Cap
0	2024	$255,400,000		$27,211,832	$4,862,315	$8,167,885	$40,242,032	15.8%
1	2025	$286,048,000		$32,600,000	$13,910,000	$9,540,000	$56,050,000	19.6%
2	2026	$320,373,760		$69,600,000	$33,110,000	$28,000,000	$130,710,000	40.8%
3	2027	$358,818,611		$54,600,000	$28,980,000	$32,000,000	$115,580,000	32.2%
4	2028	$401,876,845		$61,600,000	$26,010,000	$34,000,000	$121,610,000	30.3%
	2029	$450,102,066			$16,700,000	$27,000,000	$43,700,000	9.7%
	2030	$504,114,314			Void	Void	$0
	2031	$564,608,031			Void		$0
				Hurts	AJ Brown	L Johnson	TOTAL
0	2024	$255,400,000		$  13,558,800	$  11,878,894	$  15,865,000	$   41,302,694	16.2%
1	2025	$286,048,000		$  21,769,800	$  17,639,894	$  17,412,000	$   56,821,694	19.9%
2	2026	$320,373,760		$  31,771,800	$  23,509,895	$  18,699,000	$   73,980,695	23.1%
3	2027	$358,818,611		$  41,832,800	$  22,741,000	$  16,514,000	$   81,087,800	22.6%
4	2028	$401,876,845		$  47,149,000	$  27,624,000	$  22,476,000	$   97,249,000	24.2%
	2029	$450,102,066		$  97,553,000	$  29,307,000		$ 126,860,000	28.2%
	2030	$504,114,314		Void	$  53,520,000		$   53,520,000	10.6%
	2031	$564,608,031		Void	Void		$                       -
	2032				Void		$                       -
	2033				Void		$                       -

Yea but honestly imo there is a tax to play in Detroit. At least until there is longer term success. 

[Karnage84]

Just now, Karnage84 said:

				Goff	St Brown	Sewell	TOTAL	% of Cap
0	2024	$255,400,000		$27,211,832	$4,862,315	$8,167,885	$40,242,032	15.8%
1	2025	$286,048,000		$32,600,000	$13,910,000	$9,540,000	$56,050,000	19.6%
2	2026	$320,373,760		$69,600,000	$33,110,000	$28,000,000	$130,710,000	40.8%
3	2027	$358,818,611		$54,600,000	$28,980,000	$32,000,000	$115,580,000	32.2%
4	2028	$401,876,845		$61,600,000	$26,010,000	$34,000,000	$121,610,000	30.3%
	2029	$450,102,066			$16,700,000	$27,000,000	$43,700,000	9.7%
	2030	$504,114,314			Void	Void	$0
	2031	$564,608,031			Void		$0
				Hurts	AJ Brown	L Johnson	TOTAL
0	2024	$255,400,000		$  13,558,800	$  11,878,894	$  15,865,000	$   41,302,694	16.2%
1	2025	$286,048,000		$  21,769,800	$  17,639,894	$  17,412,000	$   56,821,694	19.9%
2	2026	$320,373,760		$  31,771,800	$  23,509,895	$  18,699,000	$   73,980,695	23.1%
3	2027	$358,818,611		$  41,832,800	$  22,741,000	$  16,514,000	$   81,087,800	22.6%
4	2028	$401,876,845		$  47,149,000	$  27,624,000	$  22,476,000	$   97,249,000	24.2%
	2029	$450,102,066		$  97,553,000	$  29,307,000		$ 126,860,000	28.2%
	2030	$504,114,314		Void	$  53,520,000		$   53,520,000	10.6%
	2031	$564,608,031		Void	Void		$                       -
	2032				Void		$                       -
	2033				Void		$                       -

I was taking a look at a couple of the teams the Lions are competing with to see how things compare. 

Eagles: The Eagles have recently done a number of re-signings themselves. One thing that I've noticed is that they tend to kick the can FAR down the road. 

Jared Goff has a pretty significant hit in 2026 ($69M) which is 'probably' going to be reduced with a restructure. Jalen Hurts has lower/more reasonable cap hits until 2029 along with a few void years tacked on to spread out some bonus money. In 2029, Hurts is going to have nearly a $100M cap hit. 

The Eagles also seem to have really low ($1M+) base salaries with the bulk of the money being tied up in bonuses. This creates short-term flexibility but would create big problems in the event that a player is cut. 

 

[Karnage84]

4 minutes ago, detfan782004 said:

Yea but honestly imo there is a tax to play in Detroit. At least until there is longer term success. 

This would have been true 3 years ago. This isn't the case any longer. 

I'm not as familiar with the Michigan tax rates/tax system and how it compares to Pennsylvania, California, Missouri/Kansas, etc. Living in Detroit and raising a family there could also be a question mark depending on the player and their situation. However, I don't think this 'tax' is relevant when it comes to people playing for the Lions as a standalone item under Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes. 

[detfan782004]

42 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

This would have been true 3 years ago. This isn't the case any longer. 

I'm not as familiar with the Michigan tax rates/tax system and how it compares to Pennsylvania, California, Missouri/Kansas, etc. Living in Detroit and raising a family there could also be a question mark depending on the player and their situation. However, I don't think this 'tax' is relevant when it comes to people playing for the Lions as a standalone item under Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes. 

Not talking real tax. Talking like players coming or staying in Detroit tax. It's not a premier location. Not that Philly is but Philly is more liked by pro athletes.

 

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, detfan782004 said:

Not talking real tax. Talking like players coming or staying in Detroit tax. It's not a premier location. Not that Philly is but Philly is more liked by pro athletes.

 

The types of players that the Lions want are guys that want to win. The guy that just wants to get paid is unlikely to fit into the corporate culture they've created. 

The team is in a position to be one of the best 3 teams in the NFC. This means that they have a 1 in 3 chance at getting to the Super Bowl. That's a great opportunity. 

[detfan782004]

4 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

The types of players that the Lions want are guys that want to win. The guy that just wants to get paid is unlikely to fit into the corporate culture they've created. 

The team is in a position to be one of the best 3 teams in the NFC. This means that they have a 1 in 3 chance at getting to the Super Bowl. That's a great opportunity. 

They are building it in that direction for sure. Another solid year or two more guys will want to come as well 

[idoubtit]

It's a strong contract for Goff and the Lions didn't really win anything other than keeping their QB. We probably slightly overpaid but not enough to worry about. 

[Sllim Pickens]

3 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

This would have been true 3 years ago. This isn't the case any longer. 

I'm not as familiar with the Michigan tax rates/tax system and how it compares to Pennsylvania, California, Missouri/Kansas, etc. Living in Detroit and raising a family there could also be a question mark depending on the player and their situation. However, I don't think this 'tax' is relevant when it comes to people playing for the Lions as a standalone item under Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes. 

The Eagles are going to be the Saints in a few years.  Its fun now, but the void years are going to kill them.  Having 4 and 5 void years is great for reducing hits now but its an all or nothing method that isn't sustainable.  At some point, you can't pay guys that much and will have to eat huge losses.  The nice thing about the deals we have signed with Goff is he currently has no void years.  ARSB has 3 which hurts for sure and Sewell has 1.  We can always add them on later if needed but it will get us into that pickle of having a huge dead cap hit for a year or two.  And currently with ARSB's structure, his 3 void years are only extending out $16M of salary where as pushing out 97M (that year is his void year so it is all dead money) and AJ Brown is pushing out $55M.  They also have Devonta Smith with 4 void years with a cap hit of 36M in 2029 in bonus being pushed out.  So the Eagles will have $130M in dead cap in 2029 and at least 55M in 2030.  

If we need the cap space we will add void years and convert cash to bonus and spread it out but I think our method gives us a lot more ability to manipulate it in the future and allows us actually have it hit our cap in years where we have fewer big contracts along the way. 

[Nnivolcm]

3 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

Yea but honestly imo there is a tax to play in Detroit. At least until there is longer term success. 

You're living in the Quintricia Era. Detroit is a FA destination now.