Better QB Right Now: Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen

[Jakuvious]

23 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Chiefs Lamar actually did deliver late, Zay Flowers just fumbled the game away.

That was the first play of the 4th quarter. A huge play, for sure, but framing the narrative of that game this way just feels like a deliberately dishonest way to ignore the INT Lamar threw on the next drive. Flowers doesn't fumble, it's still only 17-10 or 17-14 in the Chiefs favor. Plenty of chances for Baltimore to still lose. With him fumbling, they still had 14:52 left in a 2 score game. Plenty of time to comeback. That fumble by no means decided the game. The INT probably did put the nail in the coffin, though. Wasn't enough time/drives left to come back at that point.

Like, criticize Flowers, by all means, but to say he fumbled the game away to deflect from Jackson's INT later on in the same game is just unfair.

Hell, the Chiefs ended the game in FG range. If Flowers scores and everything else plays out the same, KC just kicks a game winning field goal as time expires, instead of kneeling it out. Lamar still needed to score a TD after that, and failed.

[AngusMcFife]

17 minutes ago, Soko said:

Not to be a jerk, but the evidence we have of Allen performing in the playoffs “with the ball in his hands” vs that of Lamar’s, isn’t particularly close IMO. I don’t really have a desire to dive into that aspect of this, because I think the only retort is dismissing the sample size.  What we’ve actually seen from Josh throwing it vs Lamar throwing it in the playoffs isn’t something I really view as close.

True, although both are 2-2 in their last 4 games. Lamar is clearly having better playoff performances as his career advances, while Allen hasn't been quite as good as he was in 2020-2021. Who knows how these trajectories will continue?

Quote

No defense likes being threatened with both the pass and the run, that’s trouble for them. But that seems to be a near-kill shot for the Ravens/Lamar offenses, and I haven’t really ever seen that said quite so much about Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Peyton, Brees, or the elite passers.

Obviously having a strong run game isn’t a bad thing. But when you have an elite quarterback, it doesn’t really sit well with me that the headline after a playoff loss is “we couldn’t/didn’t run it, so the offense sputtered”. It’s admittedly subjective, not trying to say that that’s the way everyone needs to look at it. 

But offenses led other elite QBs have been shut down and have had bad performances in the playoffs, right?

Are Brady, Brees, and Manning all that great if their offenses can be shut down by an active and effective 4-man pass rush? It's just a question if the defense has the personnel and scheme to pull it off.

[Soko]

18 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

True, although both are 2-2 in their last 4 games. Lamar is clearly having better playoff performances as his career advances, while Allen hasn't been quite as good as he was in 2020-2021. Who knows how these trajectories will continue?

Correct, who knows, but at the end of the day, you have to lend more credence to something we’ve seen before vs something we haven’t. It’s not that he can’t, won’t, or never will, it’s just that he hasn’t yet, and he’s being compared to someone who largely has in some capacity.

Like, if I fully envelop myself into “past performance has no impact on future results”, then Jacoby Brissett has as good a shot of leading the Patriots to the Super Bowl as anyone (maybe, you have a point…).

18 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

But offenses led other elite QBs have been shut down and have had bad performances in the playoffs, right?

Are Brady, Brees, and Manning all that great if their offenses can be shut down by an active and effective 4-man pass rush? It's just a question if the defense has the personnel and scheme to pull it off.

They have been shut down, absolutely (especially you, Peyton). But they’ve also shown up and shown out, to varying degrees. Once Lamar does that in a big way, I’ll definitely change up my views on him vs Josh.

EDIT: It’s a big reason why I’ve always had Brady>Peyton, fwiw. Obviously two all-timers, but in direct comparisons, one was just an outright better playoff performer than the other.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, Jakuvious said:

That was the first play of the 4th quarter. A huge play, for sure, but framing the narrative of that game this way just feels like a deliberately dishonest way to ignore the INT Lamar threw on the next drive. Flowers doesn't fumble, it's still only 17-10 or 17-14 in the Chiefs favor. Plenty of ones for Baltimore to still lose. With him fumbling, they still had 14:52 left in a 2 score game. Plenty of time to comeback. That fumble by no means decided the game. The INT probably did put the nail in the coffin, though. Wasn't enough time/drives left to come back at that point.

Like, criticize Flowers, by all means, but to say he fumbled the game away to deflect from Jackson's INT later on in the same game is just unfair.

Hell, the Chiefs ended the game in FG range. If Flowers scores and everything else plays out the same, KC just kicks a game winning field goal as time expires, instead of kneeling it out. Lamar still needed to score a TD after that, and failed.

The INT he threw where Isaiah Likely was literally tackled on a perfectly thrown ball? I mean context matters but I do undrestand what you're saying and generally I agree with your statement that in late games I never feel like Lamar is going to deliver. Whether that's based in reality or just my feeling having watched Ravens games is up to interpretation.

But again I do agree that Josh Allen scares me more in late-game clutch moments than Lamar does.

[Soko]

10 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The INT he threw where Isaiah Likely was literally tackled on a perfectly thrown ball?

Come on, man. You’re still doing it.

It was second down, the pocket was totally clean, and the ball was floated into triple coverage. There was contact, but Likely had absolutely zero chance on that ball. It was under thrown, and again, straight into triple coverage. It was a bad throw and an even worse decision. There is no universe where this throw can be described as “perfect”, other than “perfectly thrown ball to the defense”.

10 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

context matters

 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

6 minutes ago, Soko said:

Come on, man. You’re still doing it.

It was second down, the pocket was totally clean, and the ball was floated into triple coverage. There was contact, but Likely had absolutely zero chance on that ball. It was under thrown, and again, straight into triple coverage. It was a bad throw and an even worse decision. There is no universe where this throw can be described as “perfect”, other than “perfectly thrown ball to the defense”.

 

you do realize the guy on the far left is tackling Likely in this picture while he's trying to fight for the ball haha

But it doesn't matter. I agree with the general point you guys are making.

[The BILLievers]

Josh Allen but I'm not objective lol. 

The most frustrating part of Allen's career arc so far is a) he's going up Mahomes in the playoffs aka the best QB ever when it's all said and done (like MJ vs the eastern conference),  and b) the Bills D being BOOTY when it matters most in playoffs. I've never left a playoff game thinking wow the bills lost that because of JA. Time and time again the defense lets them down when he plays great (last years KC game and the 13 seconds game).

Edited August 14 by The BILLievers

[Soko]

7 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

you do realize the guy on the far left is tackling Likely in this picture while he's trying to fight for the ball haha

But it doesn't matter. I agree with the general point you guys are making.

There was contact. Likely was also nowhere near the ball. With or without contact, he has zero chance at it, because it was a line drive into three defenders. It’s not like he was thrown to the ground and then the ball got there. Click the link, it was god awful. 

 

Remove 27 and the contact from the picture, then it’s only a line drive to an underneath defender in double coverage. Bad throw, horrific decision. 

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, Soko said:

Correct, who knows, but at the end of the day, you have to lend more credence to something we’ve seen before vs something we haven’t. It’s not that he can’t, won’t, or never will, it’s just that he hasn’t yet, and he’s being compared to someone who largely has in some capacity.

Like, if I fully envelop myself into “past performance has no impact on future results”, then Jacoby Brissett has as good a shot of leading the Patriots to the Super Bowl as anyone (maybe, you have a point…).

They have been shut down, absolutely (especially you, Peyton). But they’ve also shown up and shown out, to varying degrees. Once Lamar does that in a big way, I’ll definitely change up my views on him vs Josh.

EDIT: It’s a big reason why I’ve always had Brady>Peyton, fwiw. Obviously two all-timers, but in direct comparisons, one was just an outright better playoff performer than the other.

Agree with most here, but I do think regular season performance over several years can be fairly predictive.

I'm just not sure about playoff performance. Foles is super clutch one year, not the next. Eli is a playoff god one year, and gets bounced and performs horribly the next. Is there a pattern of who is able to maintain "clutchness" over time?

[Jakuvious]

30 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

The INT he threw where Isaiah Likely was literally tackled on a perfectly thrown ball? I mean context matters but I do undrestand what you're saying and generally I agree with your statement that in late games I never feel like Lamar is going to deliver. Whether that's based in reality or just my feeling having watched Ravens games is up to interpretation.

But again I do agree that Josh Allen scares me more in late-game clutch moments than Lamar does.

Lmao what? This is such an inaccurate description of that play. Contact occurred because the ball was short and too far to Lamar's right, so Likely had to attempt to stop his route unexpectedly to get to the ball. A "perfectly thrown ball" would've been like 10 yards deeper to the back of the end zone and several yards ahead of Likely, not short and behind him.

And even if you think that contact was illegal (it wasn't, and it certainly wasn't a tackle), none of that would've impacted the defender who was several yards in front of Likely who wound up picking off the pass.

 

Likely's route (at 19 seconds in): 

 

[Soko]

4 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Agree with most here, but I do think regular season performance over several years can be fairly predictive.

I'm just not sure about playoff performance. Foles is super clutch one year, not the next. Eli is a playoff god one year, and gets bounced and performs horribly the next. Is there a pattern of who is able to maintain "clutchness" over time?

Yes, but if there was a postseason game, and it was Nick Foles vs another similar caliber QB (Fitzpatrick? Bortles? Doesn’t actually matter) who didn’t have Foles’ playoff resume: wouldn’t you be much more wary of Foles vs the other guy? 

My loose belief of it is, you have guys who are incredibly reliable in the postseason, home run types. The Brady, Rodgers, Montanas. Not many of them. Almost forces of nature in the postseason. Obviously not impossible for them to have bad or so-so games, but let’s not over complicate it: they’re money in the playoffs.

You have guys who generally perform pretty well more often than they don’t. That, to me, is a guy like Drew Brees or Josh Allen. Aaron Rodgers. There’ll always be some stinkers, but usually they’re their same old selves when the playoffs come around.

You also have guys who might be really good/elite QBs, but generally lower their level of play when the postseason rolls around, for whatever reason. There are good games sprinkled in there, of course. But looking at their body of work, you wonder why they didn’t play even better. Peyton’s in here, and I think, for now, that’s where Lamar’s gotta be too.

The lightning in a bottle QBs like Eli or Foles are kinda strange. Clearly not as consistently good as you’d expect, having watched their SB runs, but sometimes things just click, I guess.

Those aren’t the only tiers, I suppose we could get more specific and look into guys like Big Ben or Rivers or Ryan. It’s just a loose, not too specific way of looking at some of these QBs. And none of it is static either. Matt Stafford’s a guy who I’d put into the third category for most of his career (generally disappointing), but since joining the Rams has shown to be someone in that second group (pretty high level of postseason play). I think in his case you could clearly point to the situation improving, but in others it might be less obvious.

Maybe it’s an oversimplification. There are certainly people who’d say I’m putting too much stock into a limited sample size of games. 

[AngusMcFife]

58 minutes ago, Soko said:

Yes, but if there was a postseason game, and it was Nick Foles vs another similar caliber QB (Fitzpatrick? Bortles? Doesn’t actually matter) who didn’t have Foles’ playoff resume: wouldn’t you be much more wary of Foles vs the other guy? 

My loose belief of it is, you have guys who are incredibly reliable in the postseason, home run types. The Brady, Rodgers, Montanas. Not many of them. Almost forces of nature in the postseason. Obviously not impossible for them to have bad or so-so games, but let’s not over complicate it: they’re money in the playoffs.

You have guys who generally perform pretty well more often than they don’t. That, to me, is a guy like Drew Brees or Josh Allen. Aaron Rodgers. There’ll always be some stinkers, but usually they’re their same old selves when the playoffs come around.

You also have guys who might be really good/elite QBs, but generally lower their level of play when the postseason rolls around, for whatever reason. There are good games sprinkled in there, of course. But looking at their body of work, you wonder why they didn’t play even better. Peyton’s in here, and I think, for now, that’s where Lamar’s gotta be too.

The lightning in a bottle QBs like Eli or Foles are kinda strange. Clearly not as consistently good as you’d expect, having watched their SB runs, but sometimes things just click, I guess.

Those aren’t the only tiers, I suppose we could get more specific and look into guys like Big Ben or Rivers or Ryan. It’s just a loose, not too specific way of looking at some of these QBs. And none of it is static either. Matt Stafford’s a guy who I’d put into the third category for most of his career (generally disappointing), but since joining the Rams has shown to be someone in that second group (pretty high level of postseason play). I think in his case you could clearly point to the situation improving, but in others it might be less obvious.

Maybe it’s an oversimplification. There are certainly people who’d say I’m putting too much stock into a limited sample size of games. 

Yes, although I think there should maybe be a tier of "he first struggled in the playoffs, but then got more experience and played well more consistently."

I would put Flacco and Peyton in that category. 

The other factor to consider is age. Peyton, Brees, Steve Young didn't have playoff success until age 30. Lamar by contrast is the youngest QB to ever start a postseason game, and was 0-2 in the playoffs after his age-22 season. Plenty of QBs don't even enter the league until 23. In a sense, Lamar's postseason reputation is tarnished because he made the playoffs so early in his career, while other QBs couldn't even make the NFL, start, or make the playoffs at that age. If Lamar entered the league at age 23 and was 2-2 in the playoffs, I don't think the narrative is the same.

[bigbadbuff]

I’ll take the guy who has the most touchdowns in the entire league in the last 4 years.

[Soggust]

10 hours ago, Soko said:

Yes, but if there was a postseason game, and it was Nick Foles vs another similar caliber QB (Fitzpatrick? Bortles? Doesn’t actually matter) who didn’t have Foles’ playoff resume: wouldn’t you be much more [less?] wary of Foles vs the other guy? 

Nope!

If the guy is X level of talent, then he is X level of talent. 

5 blacks in a row doesn't mean the next spin is red. 

 

10 hours ago, Soko said:

Maybe it’s an oversimplification. There are certainly people who’d say I’m putting too much stock into a limited sample size of games. 

🙋‍♂️

But I do acknowledge that WAY more people would agree with your perspective than mine, lol.

[Soko]

5 hours ago, Soggust said:

Nope!

If the guy is X level of talent, then he is X level of talent. 

5 blacks in a row doesn't mean the next spin is red. 

 

🙋‍♂️

But I do acknowledge that WAY more people would agree with your perspective than mine, lol.

Are performances of NFL QBs completely random, with zero connectivity or consistency (like casino numbers/colors)? If that were the case, wouldn’t Sam Darnold and Lamar Jackson have the same MVP odds? Wouldn’t Patrick Mahomes and Justin Fields be equally as likely to be playoff performers?

It’s not really a talent question and I don’t know why that’s even brought up. Yes, X level of talent is X level of talent (although how we perceive that talent can change). It’s about performance. Why would I treat someone who has done XYZ, maybe several times, the same exact way I treat someone who never has? 

Can’t really wrap my head around that idea. To each their own, I guess.