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1st overall Pick: Jackson or Barkley


kingomi87

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On 3/19/2018 at 2:59 PM, kingomi87 said:

Do you think Barkley will have 2k yards a season or something?  I can see him avg between 1100 and 1300yds a season and thats including recieving yards.  Sprinkle in 8-10 tds.  

If anything, i think Barkley is the once in a lifetime prospect.  In my oppinion, he has the highest cieling of all the qbs in this draft and quite frankly is also the best rb in the draft.  

 

If jackson avgs 1k yards running a season and anything over 3k passing, he will be a fantasy pt machine that no other rb would ever be able to emulate.  He just needs to be put into thw right system.  

AVERAGES 1,000 yards rushing per year? The all-time career rushing record for a QB is 4,928. You're saying he'd break that in like five years. That sounds a little outlandish to me in any system.

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58 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said:

AVERAGES 1,000 yards rushing per year? The all-time career rushing record for a QB is 4,928. You're saying he'd break that in like five years. That sounds a little outlandish to me in any system.

Believe it or not LJ avg 80yds per game in 2015, 120yds in 2016 and 123yds in 2017.  Keep in mind that to get to 1k yds he would only need to avg roughly 60yds a game give or take over a 16 game season.  Lets assume these numbers will take a hit by 50% in the NFL, counting only the 2016 and 2017 seasons.  He is still floating around 60-62yds per game avg which would put him at exactly 1k yards a season if he can remain healthy.  I don't think this is outlandish at all.  I would say this would be outlandish if someone were to say that a qb like Mariota or Cam newton would do this as they are not as good of a runner as LJ is in the open field.  Cam is a beast at short yardage though and I don't think there will be a qb like him for a long time.  

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There is some merit to the fact that if you can find a star QB, you could be set for the next 15+ years at that position. However, I think there is way too much uncertainty for these prospects early in their careers to depend on them right out of the gate, if they even see the field as rookies.

You're basically conceding that your team is going to suck for 2-3 years, and even then you are still hoping that you picked the right QB.

That's far too much uncertainty for me. RBs don't have the longterm shelf life of QBs, but you can get higher production at a quicker rate than QBs.

You've brought up the RBs that have failed (Bush, Richardson, etc), but as for your Jackson stat projections, that basically gives you someone between Cam Newton and Tyrod Taylor. So in 6-point passing TD leagues, you've only got between the 5th and 19th QB from last year. Cam Newton was drafted in the 8th round in my league last year, and probably won't be drafted much higher next year. So you're drafting a mid-round value at best as the 1.1 in a rookie draft, and might not see him on the field for a year or two. Barkley will start right away, and you will get immediate production from him.

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