Offseason Trade Targets

[CP3MVP]

12 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

I would not. Maybe one of the second round picks because he has potential but a history of getting injured and his contract is up after 2018. This draft is so good I'd rather ser the Patriots manuever around tthe first few rounds than pulp off another trade for player like last year.

1.)He’s played 13,14 and 16 games the last 3 seasons. I think the injury thing is slightly overblown. 

 

2.) NE traded the #32 pick for a young talented player getting paid peanuts last year  and it worked out brilliantly.  And Our need on The Front 7 is much higher than the need for A WR was at the same  time last year. 

[Soko]

I’d do #31 for Clowney. 

He doesn’t fix the pass rush on his own as he’s still developing as a pass rusher but he’s one of the best run defenders in the league. 

NE would have to play with the cap to keep him long term, though. I think we’re around 23M at the moment with the recent moves (Branch, Bennett, fodder). 

EDIT: I do like some of the players late in the first, but as the offseason goes I think it’s less and less likely some of them fall that far. At this rate, it doesn’t look like Edmunds, Roquan, LVE, or Evans will be there at #31. Landry would help too but again, not optimistic he’ll be around. The elite DT prospects will likely be gone (Vea, Bryan, Hurst, Payne). After watching more of Key, I doubt he’s a fit. 

You never know with the draft and if any of the top DTs or LBs are there, they’re great picks at that point, but even then you’re only hoping they get to the level Clowney’s pretty much at already.

[DoleINGout]

51 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

1.)He’s played 13,14 and 16 games the last 3 seasons. I think the injury thing is slightly overblown. 

 

2.) NE traded the #32 pick for a young talented player getting paid peanuts last year  and it worked out brilliantly.  And Our need on The Front 7 is much higher than the need for A WR was at the same  time last year. 

1. The main reason I would rather see a draft pick is that Clowney is on an expiring contract. For how much he will be paid, I'd rather he not come with any "injury thing" attached to him, overblown or otherwise. Trade the late second round pick but don't give up 31 or 43 overall.

 

2. Brilliantly? You call a third consecutive season of declining production for a limited offensive player brilliant? Please refer to my earlier post that no one seemed to respond to - I'm not sure if it went unnoticed or people just didn't want to respond. The history of production for first year receivers on the Patriots since Bill Belichick became head coach is matches with what they got from a more athletic, younger player like Brandin Cooks. Certainly, characterizing Cooks' first season with the Patriots as working out "brilliantly" is on overstatement. Cheap contract for a thousand yard receiever? Absolutely, and Cooks was worth the money in 2017. Did Cooks have a brilliant season and transform the Patriots offense into a brilliant one after what we saw a season prior in 2016? No. Brandin Cooks, for the several votes of support he has reveived in this forum already, didn't have move than 129 yards receiving than Brandon LaFell had in his first season on the Pats. LaFell even had one more touchdown than Cooks. Both were welcome additions on good contracts but I do not feel as strongly as you do about their impacts. Randy Moss and Wes Welker worked out brilliantly. Cooks, LaFell, Brandon Lloyd, Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens and even Chris Hogan all worked out well.

On 2/22/2018 at 11:20 AM, DoleINGout said:

By the way, this idea that first year receivers struggle being productive for the Patriots is not supported by statistics. Many players in their first season during Belichick's tenure have broken out at receiver. 2000, Troy Brown is 29 years old and posts 944 yards/4 touchdowns. Previously he was a pigeon holed as a special teams player and middling receiver at best. Brown's previous season high in receiving prior to his first year under Belichick? 1997 when he was 26 years old playing for first time NFL head coach Pete Carroll, 607 yards/6 touchdowns. Troy Brown's second year under Belichick? Pro Bowl selection, 1199 yards/5 touchdowns and career year at 30 years old with a rookie season Tom Brady at quarterback. Also in his first season playing under Bill Belichick was the late Terry Glenn who posted 963 yards/6 touchdowns. It was Glenn's third most productive season from the time he was drafted until nine years into his career when he was rejuvenated at age 31 with the Cowboys.

 

Additional first year receivers with the Patriots under head coach Bill Belichick:

 

2001: David Patten, 749 yards/4 touchdowns, 28 years old-6 year NFL veteran-career season at the time. Went on to have to have the most productive season of his career the following year in 2002.

 

2002: Deion Branch, rookie, 489 yards/2 touchdowns in only 7 starts/13 games active. Branch's second season in only 12 starts, 803 yards/3 touchdowns.

 

David Givens didn't start until his second season. By 2004 after 17 starts at age 24, Givens accumulated 1476 yards/10 touchdowns.

 

2003 & 2004: no new starters

 

2005: Tim Dwight, one season, one start, fourth on the receiver depth chart on an offense with Ben Watson, Daniel Graham, Kevin Faulk, Patrick Pass and Corey Dillon running the ball. 332 yards/3 touchdowns/17.5 yards per catch. For comparison, Ben Watson in his second season in 9 starts had 441 yards/4 touchdowns and Troy Brown in his sixth season under Belichick had 466 yards/2 touchdowns/11.9 YPR in 3 starts.

 

2006: Reche Caldwell, 760 yards/4 touchdowns 14 starts, first and last season with Patriots. Previous four seasons only had 14 career starts combined for 950 yards/7 touchdowns all with the Chargers.

 

This where is gets good. Remember these are only the people in their first season.

 

2007: Randy Moss, 1493 yards/NFL record 23 touchdowns.

Wes Welker, 1175 yards, 26 years old, 8 touchdowns.

Donte Stallworth, 697 yards/3 touchdowns. 9 starts.

Jabar Gaffney, 449 yards/5 touchdowns. 7 starts.

 

2008: no new starters

 

2009: Julian Edelman, rookie college quarterback converted to receiver, 7 starts in only 11 games played on a depth chart with Wes Welker, Randy Moss, and beating out long tenured veteran wide receivers Sam Aiken and Joey Galloway through the course of training camp and the entire season. 359 yards/1 touchdown.

 

2010: Deion Branch first year back is second on the team with 706 yards/5 touchdowns in only 9 starts. You also had rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and the late Aaron Hernandez contribute a lot as receivers, (both over 500 yards/6 touchdowns, neither started more than 11 games).

 

Brandon Tate misses nearly entire rookie season in 2009, starts 10 games when healthy and manages to post 432 yards/3 touchdowns.

 

2011: Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Deion Branch all return as starters. Chad Johnson is signed and starts in 3 games, 271 yards/1 touchdown.

 

2012: Brandon Lloyd, 911 yards/4 touchdowns. (14 games of career played with Josh McDaniels in Denver prior to NE, Lloyd posted 1565 yards/11 touchdowns. Two highest producing years of his career where in his first seasons starting in McDaniels offense's).

 

2013: Danny Amendola, 633 yards/2 touchdowns in 12 games/6 starts.

 

Kenbrell Thompkins, rookie undrafted free agent signing, 466 yards/4 touchdowns. 12 games/8 starts.

 

Aaron Dobson, rookie third round draft pick, 519 yards/4 touchdowns. 12 games/9 starts.

 

*Julian Edelman, first season starting at least half a season, 1056 yards/6 touchdowns.

 

2014: Brandon LaFell, 953 yards/7 touchdowns. In four seasons with Carolina since being drafted his average was 600 yards a season. LaFell's two seasons with the Panthers prior to signing with the Patriots at 27 years old, 12 and 16 games started. With the Patriots his first season he started 13 games.

 

2015: no new starters

 

2016: Chris Hogan, 680 yards/4 touchdowns. 15 games/14 starts.

 

Malcolm Mitchell, rookie, 401 yards/4 touchdowns. 14 games/6 starts.

 

2017: Brandin Cooks, 1082 yards/6 touchdowns. Actually down in yards and touchdowns for the second consecutive season of his career. 2015, second year with Saints: 13 starts. 2016: 12 starts. 2017: 15 starts. Bad trend. Never the less, it was a productive first season in New England for yet another first year receiver. The average mid tier (salary cap) receiver the Patriots start at least 7 games in their first season with the team is (not including outlier Randy Moss's '07 or even Brandon Lloyd's '12):

 

10,539 yards/67 touchdowns/15 players

4 out of 15 are rookies (Branch, Thompkins, Dobson, Mitchell)

4 out of remaining 11 were starters for a previous team (Glenn, Stallworth, LaFell, Cooks)

The remaining 7 players did not start for their previous teams (Brown, Patten, Caldwell, Welker, Gaffney, Amendola, Hogan)

 

This group averaged 703 yards and 4.5 touchdowns in their first season with the Patriots. Again, that's not counting Randy Moss or Brandon Lloyd in their first seasons, although there really is no reason not to add in Moss's numbers. If you average it all out just adding Moss's 2007 season in there then the average first year starting wide receiver with the New England Patriots gets 752 yards and 6 touchdowns. Put Lloyd's first season in there and the true average is 761 yards and 5.5 touchdowns.

 

[Soko]

@DoleINGout

Appreciate that second page stretcher...

We phone users thank you.

[DoleINGout]

2 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

@DoleINGout

Appreciate that second page stretcher...

We phone users thank you.

Hey thanks Yin-Yang. Way to keep it to the actual football conversation.

[DoleINGout]

13 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I’d do #31 for Clowney. 

He doesn’t fix the pass rush on his own as he’s still developing as a pass rusher but he’s one of the best run defenders in the league. 

NE would have to play with the cap to keep him long term, though. I think we’re around 23M at the moment with the recent moves (Branch, Bennett, fodder). 

EDIT: I do like some of the players late in the first, but as the offseason goes I think it’s less and less likely some of them fall that far. At this rate, it doesn’t look like Edmunds, Roquan, LVE, or Evans will be there at #31. Landry would help too but again, not optimistic he’ll be around. The elite DT prospects will likely be gone (Vea, Bryan, Hurst, Payne). After watching more of Key, I doubt he’s a fit. 

You never know with the draft and if any of the top DTs or LBs are there, they’re great picks at that point, but even then you’re only hoping they get to the level Clowney’s pretty much at already.

I like Maurice Hurst as a defensive tackle but I doubt he's drafted in the first two rounds let alone being available at 31 overall. His heart condition needs to be evaluated by other teams but the Saints flagged Hurst at the combine as having the same issure they found in Nick Fairley. Fairly is one of the top free agent talents avilable this year but might not get signed because of his medical diagnosis. All of those other prospects I agree will be unavailable at 31 except for maybe Tavon Bryan. There are some good offensive tackles and corner backs as well as nose guard Harrison Phillips who would make solid picks that late. Right now I see the Patriots trading up to select Mason Rudolph in the first round.

[Soko]

Just now, DoleINGout said:

I like Maurice Hurst as a defensive tackle but I doubt he's drafted in the first two rounds let alone being available at 31 overall. His heart condition needs to be evaluated by other teams but the Saints flagged Hurst at the combine as having the same issure they found in Nick Fairley. Fairly is one of the top free agent talents avilable this year but might not get signed because of his medical diagnosis. All of those other prospects I agree will be unavailable at 31 except for maybe Tavon Bryan. There are some good offensive tackles and corner backs as well as nose guard Harrison Phillips who would make solid picks that late. Right now I see the Patriots trading up to select Mason Rudolph in the first round.

Forgot about his heart condition. 

I’m hoping the Pats don’t need to take an OT early because they re-sign Solder...but yeah, the value there will probably be good. Helps that they seem to be testing pretty badly to this point, not sure how that’d effect Belichick’s/Scar’s opinions though. 

Corner too potentially, I just believe this draft has solid depth at CB and a smaller top end group. Ward’s the only one I really like and he won’t be there unless he Tunsil’s it or something. 

It’s interesting to see where Belichick’s going to go this year. I’m probably just overly hyped after last year’s snooze fest as far as Patriots-draft hype goes.

[DoleINGout]

1 minute ago, Yin-Yang said:

Forgot about his heart condition. 

I’m hoping the Pats don’t need to take an OT early because they re-sign Solder...but yeah, the value there will probably be good. Helps that they seem to be testing pretty badly to this point, not sure how that’d effect Belichick’s/Scar’s opinions though. 

Corner too potentially, I just believe this draft has solid depth at CB and a smaller top end group. Ward’s the only one I really like and he won’t be there unless he Tunsil’s it or something. 

It’s interesting to see where Belichick’s going to go this year. I’m probably just overly hyped after last year’s snooze fest as far as Patriots-draft hype goes.

I think Nate Solder will end up re-signing but you never know if it will be a short term contract and they opt to draft a future left tackle at 31, (assuming they didn't trade up or out). I agree with you about the corners being great on day two but day one there is really only Denzel Ward and he I have getting selected thirteenth overall by the Redskins. Before the combine I thought he'd be there at the end of the first but he tore it up. Now if yoj want him you have to target him in a trade scenario.

[CP3MVP]

8 hours ago, DoleINGout said:

1. The main reason I would rather see a draft pick is that Clowney is on an expiring contract. For how much he will be paid, I'd rather he not come with any "injury thing" attached to him, overblown or otherwise. Trade the late second round pick but don't give up 31 or 43 overall.

 

2. Brilliantly? You call a third consecutive season of declining production for a limited offensive player brilliant? Please refer to my earlier post that no one seemed to respond to - I'm not sure if it went unnoticed or people just didn't want to respond. The history of production for first year receivers on the Patriots since Bill Belichick became head coach is matches with what they got from a more athletic, younger player like Brandin Cooks. Certainly, characterizing Cooks' first season with the Patriots as working out "brilliantly" is on overstatement. Cheap contract for a thousand yard receiever? Absolutely, and Cooks was worth the money in 2017. Did Cooks have a brilliant season and transform the Patriots offense into a brilliant one after what we saw a season prior in 2016? No. Brandin Cooks, for the several votes of support he has reveived in this forum already, didn't have move than 129 yards receiving than Brandon LaFell had in his first season on the Pats. LaFell even had one more touchdown than Cooks. Both were welcome additions on good contracts but I do not feel as strongly as you do about their impacts. Randy Moss and Wes Welker worked out brilliantly. Cooks, LaFell, Brandon Lloyd, Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens and even Chris Hogan all worked out well.

 

I say Brilliantly because

A.)I will always trade a late first round draft pick for one of the better younger WRs  in football getting paid peanuts. In a year when you factor  in Edelman’s and hogans injury and Amendola being on limited snaps. This season would’ve been a disaster in regards to the WR Corps. Philip Dorset would be the number 1 outside WR heading into Pittsburg. Think about that for a second. As for Lafell, When Edelman went down Lafell disappeared in 2015 and was a no show in the afc title game. Cooks on the other hand with no Edelman torched the Jags elite  defense and was a key factor in getting to the SB. Look at the way the jags defense had to play him. Lafell never got that attention from defenses. It’s not just the raw numbers with cooks, he scares the crap out of teams because of his ability to burn them deep at any moment,

 

B.)The Patriots since B.B. got here have been absolute trash at drafting WRs. There’s a reason why they have to sign and trade for guys like Amendola/Moss/Welker/Cooks. Your initial argument in this thread was for trading cooks for a defensive chess piece like A Marcus peters I would agree with that. But just trading him for picks when this team has shown no real evidence of drafting guys on his level is laughable especially with your 41 year old QB in win now mode. Edelman is the only wr BB has drafted with a 1000 yard season in almost 20 years. We have a good young WR for the first time of this regime and people want to trade him for unknown draft picks. 

[CP3MVP]

And  the funny thing about Edelman’s 1st 1000 yard season in 2013 it was kinda by accident and desperation. The top 2 WRs from the previous year left,  Amendola was average and missed 4 games , Tompkins flopped, Dobson sucked and only started 9 games. My god that offense was horrible.

[ashnathan]

49ers have an offer on the table for Sherman. New England yet to even make contact. If they have Rowe lined up opposite Gilmore as our number 2 cancel the season, we'll need to put up 50pts a game.

Edit: 3 year deal. That's it. We aint getting Sherman. I dont know what to think.

Edit 2: Now official. Sherman is a 49er.

[Spooky]

On 3/8/2018 at 1:02 AM, CP3MVP said:

I’m 99% sure one of the two will be on the roster. I don’t have a problem with Talib

that 1% is a rough one

 

Thought there was a good shot at getting Sherman after he was released, 49ers moved in quickly. I do like the Shelton trade tho. Fills a need and also got an additional draft pick this year

[Spooky]

14 hours ago, ashnathan said:

49ers have an offer on the table for Sherman. New England yet to even make contact. If they have Rowe lined up opposite Gilmore as our number 2 cancel the season, we'll need to put up 50pts a game.

Edit: 3 year deal. That's it. We aint getting Sherman. I dont know what to think.

Edit 2: Now official. Sherman is a 49er.

Cancel the season? C'mon man. What makes you think having Rowe on the opposite side of Gilmore is so bad? Because he let up a touchdown to Alshon Jeffrey in the Super Bowl that was an amazing throw/catch? Did you watch the plays where Rowe was on Jones against the Falcons in that Super Bowl? Rowe was right there every time Jones just made some ridiculous catches. Do people remember when we had Edelman lining up as a corner in the playoffs? I think the Rowe hate is unwarranted, not saying he's the best corner, and I definitely think we need to add someone through FA or the draft but definitely believe Rowe is serviceable for next year. 

[ashnathan]

4 hours ago, Spooky said:

Cancel the season? C'mon man. What makes you think having Rowe on the opposite side of Gilmore is so bad? Because he let up a touchdown to Alshon Jeffrey in the Super Bowl that was an amazing throw/catch? Did you watch the plays where Rowe was on Jones against the Falcons in that Super Bowl? Rowe was right there every time Jones just made some ridiculous catches. Do people remember when we had Edelman lining up as a corner in the playoffs? I think the Rowe hate is unwarranted, not saying he's the best corner, and I definitely think we need to add someone through FA or the draft but definitely believe Rowe is serviceable for next year. 

I have watched Rowe especially close last season, I knew before the superbowl he’d blow chunks and give up brutal plays, but I thought the Pats would at least hold Phily to under 30. But during the season he routinely gave up 3rd downs, missed tackles. Hell, he actully made a tackle on 3rd down short of the sticks in one game and instead of holding the guy up or just tackling him out if bounds he dragged him over the first down marker to complete his tackl, absolutely blew my mind. He gets burnt with speed and isn’t smart enough to use his body to make up for his lack of foot speed. He made a good play at the end of the Pittsburgh game with the bat away, but he was straight up brutal in that game too.

 

Im fine with him as your number 3 in the slot but he’ll kill the Pats if hes your number 2. I dont wanna be negative nancy but he scares the hell outta me

[Elky]

The main reason why Rowe struggled in SB52 was because his assignment was changed at the last minute due to the Butler benching.

With that said, however, I'd feel most comfortable if Rowe was primarily in the nickel and is only on the outside if it's the right match-up.