2018 MLB GDT IT’S HEREEEEE

[beekay414]

6 minutes ago, mission27 said:

This is bull****. 

425 foot homers in YS are not fly outs in other parks.  Doesnt matter how you want to caveat it.

He probably hits better at home because he can sleep in his own bed instead of his feet hanging way off the end at some hotel

Tell yourself whatever you want to. Doesn't change the fact that he's a career .244 hitter on the road.

[playmaker8267]

4 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Lets see...

He's the biggest, hits the ball the hardest and furthest, and has the best arm this generation.

But sure, he's not a generational talent.

And a .300 hitter who walks, hits for absurd power, plays good defense, can steal bases, and has the best arm in baseball is clearly not a five tool player.

He's the biggest. Yippee! He's tall! Wow!

Stanton hits the ball the furthest and hardest, weird point to make.

Best arm is Cespedes.

For your last point, aside from the arm which I've mentioned, you can't pretend Judge is stealing bases left and right. He has 17 career stolen base attempts.

[mission27]

1 minute ago, playmaker8267 said:

He's the biggest. Yippee! He's tall! Wow!

Stanton hits the ball the furthest and hardest, weird point to make.

Best arm is Cespedes.

For your last point, aside from the arm which I've mentioned, you can't pretend Judge is stealing bases left and right. He has 17 career stolen base attempts.

The great thing about stupid posts like this is they are so easily disproved.

He's big, bigness is an important physical attribute in sports. 

His size / athleticism is completely unparalleled in baseball history.  He's a Rob Gronkowski or Lebron James type freak.  Completely breaks the mold.  It allows him to do stuff like this:

That's my favorite one, although he's probably robbed at least 10 home runs already in his career, which really isn't properly reflected in his WAR.  But I like this one the best because it showcases his speed which is well above average.  I'd put at least a 60 on it, but could justify higher.  Its hard not to have plus speed when your legs are twice as long as the average player. 

As far as his power vs. Stantons, again, the facts are pretty clear and you are way off base.  Judge has the hardest hit home run of all time, the hardest hit of 2017, and 4 of the 5 hardest hit of 2017.  He also had the highest average exit velocity by a full MPH last year.  The numbers speak for themselves.  Their performance in the HRD is also telling.  As a Yankees fan I'm an objective observer here, Stanton does not have the same kind of power as Judge.  People think he does because he was an overhyped prospect, is a completely overrated player, and got overpaid. 

Judge has the best arm in baseball, statistically, but if you need some evidence here you go... 

The difference between Judge and other guys is the ease he throws with.  He routinely throws 98,99,100 mph from the outfield with ease and could clearly throw much harder but is holding back.  He's also got probably the most accurate arm in baseball.  

Anyway, this is a stupid conversation.  Judge is clearly a five tool stud.  Not worth debating.  The debate was, whatever skill set you want to say he has or had last year, could he repeat 2017.  And the Judge has ruled.

[playmaker8267]

Ah, yes, the old "you said my guy isn't the best, so I'm going to pretend you said he's not good" approach. I said Cespedes has the best arm, not that Judge doesn't have a good arm. You have a weird persecution complex when it comes to Judge and I genuinely don't get it.

[mission27]

5 minutes ago, playmaker8267 said:

Ah, yes, the old "you said my guy isn't the best, so I'm going to pretend you said he's not good" approach. I said Cespedes has the best arm, not that Judge doesn't have a good arm. You have a weird persecution complex when it comes to Judge and I genuinely don't get it.

The argument is not is he good or not.  Its how good?  Is he a top-5 player in baseball and on the level of anybody not named Trout?  Or is he just your run of the mill 4-5 WAR all star whose going to settle into a mid-.200s batting average, lots of home runs and walks, and basically be Adam Dunn with some defense. 

Either way he's good, very good, but its a question that interests me, because people seem to have taken a very strong position on this despite the evidence pointing in the other direction, mostly (I would guess) because of very strong priors linked to his prospect ranking and how unusual he is.

What evidence do we have here?

1. Aaron Judge has some of the best physical tools in baseball and his full skill set, including yes his size, is something we've never seen in MLB before.  When someone falls outside the range of players we've seen in a meaningful way, it seems kinda foolish to make assumptions about what that player can and cannot do... especially when those assumptions differ from what that player IS doing... like,who do you think the yellow dot is?

2. Statistically he is right up there with anyone since becoming a full time starter,

[mission27]

What gets me with Judge is, he does amazing **** on a pretty regular basis that if, say, Shohei Ohtani did, you would all collectively lose your ****.

But because its Judge the reaction is basically 'this is unsustainable, he can't repeat last season.'  Or you just keep quiet until he strikes out and say how horrible he looked at the plate and that he can't repeat last season. 

Its not like anyone says "Shohei Ohtani is great, but he can't be both a successful hitter and pitcher at this level, nobody has done that so its not sustainable."  But with Judge is always "nobody at his size / who strikes out that much has ever been this good, he can't keep this up."

[mission27]

3 minutes ago, mission27 said:

The argument is not is he good or not.  Its how good?  Is he a top-5 player in baseball and on the level of anybody not named Trout?  Or is he just your run of the mill 4-5 WAR all star whose going to settle into a mid-.200s batting average, lots of home runs and walks, and basically be Adam Dunn with some defense. 

Either way he's good, very good, but its a question that interests me, because people seem to have taken a very strong position on this despite the evidence pointing in the other direction, mostly (I would guess) because of very strong priors linked to his prospect ranking and how unusual he is.

What evidence do we have here?

1. Aaron Judge has some of the best physical tools in baseball and his full skill set, including yes his size, is something we've never seen in MLB before.  When someone falls outside the range of players we've seen in a meaningful way, it seems kinda foolish to make assumptions about what that player can and cannot do... especially when those assumptions differ from what that player IS doing... like,who do you think the yellow dot is?

2. Statistically he is right up there with anyone since becoming a full time starter,

By the way for those of you who can't do a linear regression in your head, that graph means that Judge should've had a higher wOBA last year based on his strikeout rate and contact profile.  But I'm sure you all figured that out.

[TENINCH]

Shohei Ohtani has much better teeth.

[mission27]

1 minute ago, mission27 said:

Its not like anyone says "Shohei Ohtani is great, but he can't be both a successful hitter and pitcher at this level, nobody has done that so its not sustainable."  But with Judge is always "nobody at his size / who strikes out that much has ever been this good, he can't keep this up."

The key thing here is...

There are very very few players in baseball history who have been able to both hit and pitch at a high level.  Ohtani is a unique generational talent. 

There are very very few players with the size, athleticism, and bat speed / strength of Aaron Judge.  Judge is also a unique generational talent.

One guy gets you all happy, the other guy you continue to doubt.  I'm not sure why but it is silly.  Why cant you just enjoy Judge and accept that the Yankees lucked into an amazing player, media darling, who is going to destroy you or the next 15 years?

[mission27]

3 minutes ago, TENINCH said:

Shohei Ohtani has much better teeth.

Thats fair. 

[playmaker8267]

Ohtani insecurity is the root of the problem, I see.

..Are you trying to tell us that ESPN wasn't covering every bowel movement Judge had from April-July of last year? He was shoved down our collective throats, just like Ohtani is now. The newest, shiniest thing is covered the most. Trout was put on a pedestal when he first broke through, now what he's doing is expected. Judge is entering that phase now. When Ohtani settles in and consistently performs at a certain level, he won't be shoved down our throats. By that time, the next guy will have the stage. You have to know that by now.

If Stanton were poking home runs left and right, he'd be getting a massive amount of coverage, but he's not.

[mission27]

10 minutes ago, playmaker8267 said:

Ohtani insecurity is the root of the problem, I see.

..Are you trying to tell us that ESPN wasn't covering every bowel movement Judge had from April-July of last year? He was shoved down our collective throats, just like Ohtani is now. The newest, shiniest thing is covered the most. Trout was put on a pedestal when he first broke through, now what he's doing is expected. Judge is entering that phase now. When Ohtani settles in and consistently performs at a certain level, he won't be shoved down our throats. By that time, the next guy will have the stage. You have to know that by now.

If Stanton were poking home runs left and right, he'd be getting a massive amount of coverage, but he's not.

I’m not talking about ESPN I’m talking about FF.  ESPN loves Judge.  Will never claim otherwise or that he doesn’t get enough attention.  Certain posters on here have been very skeptical of a Judge repeat and are gonna look silly.

[playmaker8267]

So find the comments, quote them (with dates), and post them alongside some good Judge stats. So much more effective than blanket statements.

[mission27]

You can’t deny that there’s a difference between how people on here think about Judge and how they viewed Trout when he came up, or Strasbourg, or Ohtani.

Those guys were instant stars and everyone said “the sky is the limit.”  Judge was an instant star and everyone said “he can’t do it again.”

[mission27]

1 minute ago, playmaker8267 said:

So find the comments, quote them (with dates), and post them alongside some good Judge stats. So much more effective than blanket statements.

That’s what I’ve been doing tbh