The Baker Mayfield Conundrum

[bomont]

56 minutes ago, VanS said:

With regard to Lamar Jackson, he might not be the "pocket passer" those other guys are.  But he is a million times better as an athlete.  And his running ability alone will make him one of the most dangerious QBs in the NFL.

No it won't.  That's ridiculous.  THE most important things in a QB are accuracy and intangibles.  Not how well they can run (not saying that doesn't matter though).  NFL history is littered with "athletic" QBs for whom the same was said and they didn't cut it.  PS not saying that will be Jackson.  It might.  Just that how well he throws is what will determine his success in the end.  (PS those who point to Allen's weaker competition might want to check Jackson's schedule)

Some interesting conversation and good points several of you have had on this thread though.  Should be very interesting to see where he goes and how it works out.

[KingOfNewYork]

22 minutes ago, VanS said:

I don't care about the stats.  I just watch the tape.  And from what I saw in the complete games I watched (i.e. Iowa, Boise State, etc.) I saw no accuracy issues.  I saw a guy who was making throws down the field that were for the most part accurate.  Some were dropped, other were just high degree of difficulty throws that even the best NFL QBs sometimes missed.  Josh Allen's offensive line didn't help him at all as he was always under constant pressure.  Also his scheme was not conducive for a high completion percentage.   Wyoming did not have many easy throws for Josh Allen to pad his stats.  He wasn't throwing 5-10 swing routes and screen passes every game like Mayfield.  He was throwing the ball down the field.  Almost everyone of them going at least 10 yards.  You can continue to harp on the numbers.  I'll trust what I saw from watching his tape.  I saw a guy with no issues at all with his accuracy.  PERIOD.

With regard to Lamar Jackson, it is true that I am basing a large part of my grade on his athletic ability.  I'm doing that because its so extraordinary.  The reason other mobile QBs haven't succeeded is because they were not sublime athletes like Michael Vick.  Lamar Jackson is the only guy we've seen since Michael Vick with that level of athleticism.  That is why I'm grading him the way I am.  Its because I expect him to have that same impact as a runner that Vick had.  But in addition to his running, I believe his passing is better than Vick.  Unlike Vick who always wanted to run, Lamar actually wants to stay in the pocket, work through his progressions, and throw the ball down the field.  He's not looking to run as a first option.  Its a last resort for him.  And as a passer, he has better accuracy than Vick.  While he is streaky, when he gets it going, Lamar can spin the ball very well.  I think you'll be surprised by how good of a passer he turns out to be in the NFL. 

 

I have the same exact assessment of Allen. Guys use his completion percentage to judge his accuracy but he was throwing most of his pass 5 yards or less I'm sure he would have thrown 65%+

Allen was making difficult throws all over the field and should be ready to test NFL secondaries with his arm.

[bomont]

PS those freaking about Mayfield's attitude/etc, I think SO much attention has been given to that and the comparisons to Manziel and so on that he's going be more aware of it and work more at keeping himself in check.  He saw what happened to Manziel and knows the talk and comparisons going on.  Whatever he is, stupid isn't one of them.

 

 

[KingOfNewYork]

1 minute ago, bomont said:

PS those freaking about Mayfield's attitude/etc, I think SO much attention has been given to that and the comparisons to Manziel and so on that he's going be more aware of it and work more at keeping himself in check.  He saw what happened to Manziel and knows the talk and comparisons going on.  Whatever he is, stupid isn't one of them.

 

 

He should have studied the playbook.

[bomont]

You're right.  The Chargers should not move up to draft him.

 

[VanS]

1 hour ago, bomont said:

No it won't.  That's ridiculous.  THE most important things in a QB are accuracy and intangibles.  Not how well they can run (not saying that doesn't matter though).  NFL history is littered with "athletic" QBs for whom the same was said and they didn't cut it.  PS not saying that will be Jackson.  It might.  Just that how well he throws is what will determine his success in the end.  (PS those who point to Allen's weaker competition might want to check Jackson's schedule)

Some interesting conversation and good points several of you have had on this thread though.  Should be very interesting to see where he goes and how it works out.

In general you are right. QBs that rely mostly on their athleticism don't have much success in the NFL.  However, Lamar Jackson isn't just an "athletic" QB.  He's arguably the most athletic we've ever seen.  In fact he's so athletic that the only comparison people can come up with is Michael Vick (the sole outlier in this rule that you can't have success in the NFL as a primarily running QB).  Michael Vick for all his flaws was still a very successful starting QB in the NFL for a very long time.  In fact, his greatest team success happened early on in his career when his passing had not developed as led a not so talented Falcons team to the NFC Championship Game. 

Lamar Jackson is the most freakish athlete we've seen at the position since Michael Vick.  And I believe he can have just as much (if not more success) than Vick did in the NFL.  Remember, when Vick was dominating in the early 2000s, the NFL was still largely a 12 personnel under center league.   Now its largely an 11 personnel shotgun league.  This works in Lamar's favor.  So does all the RPOs and designed runs.  And in my opinion, Lamar has even better passer instincts and ability than Michael Vick showed coming out of college.  While Vick had a penchant to want to run at the first sign of pressure, Lamar likes to hang in the pocket and make throws down the field rather than running as a first option.

I think you'll be surprised by how successful he becomes in the NFL.  With the right coaching staff, he could be the most dangerous player in the NFL for many years.

[barnaby8787]

 

2 hours ago, KingOfTheDot said:

I have the same exact assessment of Allen. Guys use his completion percentage to judge his accuracy but he was throwing most of his pass 5 yards or less I'm sure he would have thrown 65%+

Allen was making difficult throws all over the field and should be ready to test NFL secondaries with his arm.

Allen actually led the top four QB's in passes attempted between 0-5 yards.  30% of his passes traveled less than 5 yards in the air.

[barnaby8787]

3 hours ago, VanS said:

I don't care about the stats.  I just watch the tape.  And from what I saw in the complete games I watched (i.e. Iowa, Boise State, etc.) I saw no accuracy issues.  I saw a guy who was making throws down the field that were for the most part accurate.  Some were dropped, other were just high degree of difficulty throws that even the best NFL QBs sometimes missed.  Josh Allen's offensive line didn't help him at all as he was always under constant pressure.  Also his scheme was not conducive for a high completion percentage.   Wyoming did not have many easy throws for Josh Allen to pad his stats.  He wasn't throwing 5-10 swing routes and screen passes every game like Mayfield.  He was throwing the ball down the field.  Almost everyone of them going at least 10 yards.  You can continue to harp on the numbers.  I'll trust what I saw from watching his tape.  I saw a guy with no issues at all with his accuracy.  PERIOD.

With regard to Lamar Jackson, it is true that I am basing a large part of my grade on his athletic ability.  I'm doing that because its so extraordinary.  The reason other mobile QBs haven't succeeded is because they were not sublime athletes like Michael Vick.  Lamar Jackson is the only guy we've seen since Michael Vick with that level of athleticism.  That is why I'm grading him the way I am.  Its because I expect him to have that same impact as a runner that Vick had.  But in addition to his running, I believe his passing is better than Vick.  Unlike Vick who always wanted to run, Lamar actually wants to stay in the pocket, work through his progressions, and throw the ball down the field.  He's not looking to run as a first option.  Its a last resort for him.  And as a passer, he has better accuracy than Vick.  While he is streaky, when he gets it going, Lamar can spin the ball very well.  I think you'll be surprised by how good of a passer he turns out to be in the NFL. 

 

He was actually throwing the ball shorter distances.

 

@evansilva

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A popular defense of Josh Allen's low completion % is that he didn't throw screen passes. However, Allen threw a higher rate of passes 0-5 yards from the line of scrimmage (30%) than Darnold, Rosen & Mayfield

[barnaby8787]

Also, Mayfield threw the ball downfield this year (20+ yards) 19.3% of the time.  Allen threw the ball downfield 15.5% of the time.

[KingOfNewYork]

6 minutes ago, barnaby8787 said:

 

Allen actually led the top four QB's in passes attempted between 0-5 yards.  30% of his passes traveled less than 5 yards in the air.

Hmm good stat. Were they at the LOS(bubble screens, smoke screens) or more like slants and quick outs?

[KingOfNewYork]

1 minute ago, barnaby8787 said:

Also, Mayfield threw the ball downfield this year (20+ yards) 19.3% of the time.  Allen threw the ball downfield 15.5% of the time.

Mayfield was throwing to open targets more often than not. The film shows that. 

[barnaby8787]

Just now, KingOfTheDot said:

Hmm good stat. Were they at the LOS(bubble screens, smoke screens) or more like slants and quick outs?

That I can't tell you, but it's noteworthy for those that defend his accuracy given that his completion percentage should rise dramatically from those short plays as long as Tebow isn't lined up at receiver.  I think his biggest downfall honestly with his accuracy is his deepball accuracy.  It's just horrific.  His other accuracy numbers aren't great, but they're respectable.  If you take away the deep passes, he's at about 61%.

[barnaby8787]

1 minute ago, KingOfTheDot said:

Mayfield was throwing to open targets more often than not. The film shows that. 

I won't argue that

[bomont]

1 hour ago, VanS said:

In general you are right. QBs that rely mostly on their athleticism don't have much success in the NFL.  However, Lamar Jackson isn't just an "athletic" QB.  He's arguably the most athletic we've ever seen.

I don't care if he's the most athletic human being in the history of the world, my point stands. Vick barely passed for more TDs than INTs most years.  Let's not pretend that didn't matter, and all his scrambling/running could only make up for that so much.  Newton has similar issues.

A QB must above all be a smart, accurate PASSER.  Being able to run is icing on the cake.  You need the cake first.

As for Jackson, can't say.  tbh I haven't seen enough of him to know much past the stats. 

[barnaby8787]

2 minutes ago, bomont said:

I don't care if he's the most athletic human being in the history of the world, my point stands. Vick barely passed for more TDs than INTs most years.  Let's not pretend that didn't matter, and all his scrambling/running could only make up for that so much.  Newton has similar issues.

A QB must above all be a smart, accurate PASSER.  Being able to run is icing on the cake.  You need the cake first.

As for Jackson, can't say.  tbh I haven't seen enough of him to know much past the stats. 

Lamar's accuracy issues are overblown.  His adjusted accuracy percentage for drops is over 67%.  His receivers were brutal on him this year.