Duck's Big Board

[Da_Ducktator]

Everything is updated as far as position rankings (as well as the Big Board included there) in Duck's Draft Central. Final Mock Draft will be coming tomorrow afternoon.

Any questions regarding the board, feel free to ask/critic. I think this is a really solid draft class and ultimately gave out 25 1st round grades (LVE being the last because in the end, the guy has an insane athletic profile even if his tape is solid, but rarely 'wows').

	Player	School	Position	Grade	NFL Comp
1	Quenton Nelson	Notre Dame	OG	Elite	Zack Martin
2	Saquon Barkley	Penn State	RB/KR	Elite	LaDainian Tomlinson
3	Denzel Ward	Ohio State	CB	Elite	Champ Bailey
4	Minkah Fitzpatrick	Alabama	S/CB	Elite	Tyrann Mathieu
5	Sam Darnold	USC	QB	Top 10	Philip Rivers
6	Bradley Chubb	North Carolina State	EDGE	Top 10	Chris Long
7	Vita Vea	Washington	DT	Top 10	Dontari Poe
8	Harold Landry III	Boston College	EDGE	Top 15	Vic Beasley
9	Derwin James	Florida State	S/LB	Top 15	Reshad Jones
10	Tremaine Edmunds	Virginia Tech	LB	Top 15	Julian Peterson
11	Roquan Smith	Georgia	WLB	Top 15	Lavonte David
12	Frank Ragnow	Arkansas	C/OG	Top 15	Travis Frederick
13	Will Hernandez	UTEP	OG	Top 20	Trai Turner
14	Derrius Guice	LSU	RB/KR	Top 20	Jordan Howard
15	Da'Ron Payne	Alabama	DT	Top 20	Marcel Darues
16	Josh Sweat	Florida State	EDGE	Top 20	Robert Quinn
17	Taven Bryan	Florida	DT	Top 20	Derek Wolfe
18	Jaire Alexander	Louisville	CB	Top 20	Leon Hall
19	Lamar Jackson	Louisville	QB/ATH	Late 1st	Kordell Stewart
20	Brian O'Neill	Pittsburgh	OT	Late 1st	Terron Armstead
21	Connor Williams	Texas	OG/OT	Late 1st	Robert Gallery
22	Courtland Sutton	SMU	WR	Late 1st	Dez Bryant
23	Mike Gesicki	Penn State	TE	Late 1st	Jimmy Graham
24	Josh Jackson	Iowa	CB/FS	Late 1st	Antrel Rolle
25	Leighton Vander Esch	Boise State	ILB/SLB	Late 1st	Keith Bulluck
26	Mike Hughes	Central Florida	CB/KR/PR	Early 2nd	Desmond King
27	Austin Corbett	Nevada	IOL/OT	Early 2nd	Forrest Lamp
28	James Daniels	Iowa	C	Early 2nd	Jason Kelce
29	Isaiah Wynn	Georgia	IOL/OT	Early 2nd	T.J. Lang
30	Mike McGlinchey Jr.	Notre Dame	OT	Early 2nd	Doug Free
31	Marcus Davenport	UTSA	EDGE	Early 2nd	Kyle Vanden Bosch
32	Isaiah Oliver	Colorado	CB	Early 2nd	Nnamdi Asomugha
33	Lorenzo Carter	Georgia	OLB/EDGE	Early 2nd	Leonard Floyd
34	Rashaan Evans	Alabama	LB/EDGE	Early 2nd	Navorro Bowman
35	Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	QB	Early 2nd	Case Keenum
36	Josh Allen	Wyoming	QB	Early 2nd	Aaron Brooks
37	Ronnie Harrison	Alabama	S	Early 2nd	Ken Hamlin
38	Ronald Jones III	USC	RB	Early 2nd	Brian Westbrook
39	Sony Michel	Georgia	RB	Early 2nd	LeSean McCoy
40	Josh Adams	Notre Dame	RB	Early 2nd	DeMarco Murray
41	Dallas Goedert	South Dakota State	TE	Early 2nd	Tyler Eifert
42	D.J. Moore	Maryland	WR	Early 2nd	Randall Cobb
43	B.J. Hill	North Carolina State	DT	Early 2nd	Sheldon Rankins
44	Harrison Phillips	Stanford	DT	Mid 2nd	Darnell Dockett
45	Dane Cruikshank	Arizona	SS/FS	Mid 2nd	Michael Huff
46	Fred Warner	BYU	OLB	Mid 2nd	Eric Kendricks
47	Anthony Miller	Memphis	WR	Mid 2nd	Victor Cruz
48	Rashaad Penny	San Diego State	RB/KR	Mid 2nd	Michael Turner
49	Josh Rosen	UCLA	QB	Mid 2nd	Jimmy Clausen
50	Nick Chubb	Georgia	RB	Mid 2nd	Jonathan Stewart
51	Billy Price	Ohio State	C	Mid 2nd	LeCharles Bentley
52	Uchenna Nwosu	USC	EDGE/OLB	Mid 2nd	Anthony Barr
53	Quenton Meeks	Stanford	CB	Mid 2nd	Kayvon Webster
54	Tarvarius Moore	Southern Miss	FS	Mid 2nd	Damarious Randall
55	Kevin Toliver II	LSU	CB	Late 2nd	Trae Waynes
56	Donte' Jackson	LSU	CB/KR/PR	Late 2nd	Devin Hester
57	Nathan Shepherd	Fort Hays State	DT	Late 2nd	John Thornton
58	Martinas Rankin	Mississippi State	IOL/OT	Late 2nd	Andy Levitre
59	Brandon Parker	North Carolina A&T	OT	Late 2nd	Eugene Monroe
60	Kolton Miller	UCLA	OT	Late 2nd	Jared Veldheer
61	Kemoko Turay	Rutgers	EDGE/OLB	Late 2nd	Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila
62	Genard Avery	Memphis	LB/EDGE	Late 2nd	Haason Reddick
63	Duke Ejiofor	Wake Forest	EDGE	Late 2nd	Derrick Morgan
64	Rasheem Green	USC	EDGE/DT	Late 2nd	Cory Redding

[AlNFL19]

Looks pretty good but no really overly interesting takes in here, no offense. I've seen almost all of these guys similarly placed before.

What are your thoughts on Mark Walton, RB, Miami?

[Da_Ducktator]

17 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said:

Looks pretty good but no really overly interesting takes in here, no offense. I've seen almost all of these guys similarly placed before.

What are your thoughts on Mark Walton, RB, Miami?

Frank Ragnow 12th

Will Hernandez 13th

Josh Sweat 16th

Brian O'Neill 20th

Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen as 2nd rounders.

But you've seen this before? I'm not even going for shock value (which sounds like all you care about), just going by what I see. 

Mark Walton is James White 2.0. He'll be a good change of pace back who can provide value on 3rd downs.

Let me guess, you're one of the people that has Walton as a top 10 prospect though?

[AlNFL19]

2 hours ago, Da_Ducktator said:

Frank Ragnow 12th

Will Hernandez 13th

Josh Sweat 16th

Brian O'Neill 20th

Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen as 2nd rounders.

But you've seen this before? I'm not even going for shock value (which sounds like all you care about), just going by what I see. - Except O’Neill, yup.

Mark Walton is James White 2.0. He'll be a good change of pace back who can provide value on 3rd downs. - Not really.

Let me guess, you're one of the people that has Walton as a top 10 prospect though? - Indeed lol

 

[Da_Ducktator]

40 minutes ago, AlNFL19 said:

 

Good to know somebody who doesn't post all year comes and posts one-liners with a few splash rankings to grabs people attention.

Love for you to show me all these people that supposedly have Ragnow and Hernandez top 15, three of the "big five" QBs as 2nd's, with Austin Corbett as high as I do or Josh Adams for that matter. And that's not even mentioning Cruik, Oren Burks, Cichy, Natrell Jamerson, or Shaquem Griffin all top 100 (last three I all have as 3rds in my position ranking).

Or just drop some desperate plea for attention like Mark Walton is a franchise saving running back...

[AlNFL19]

7 hours ago, Da_Ducktator said:

Good to know somebody who doesn't post all year comes and posts one-liners with a few splash rankings to grabs people attention.

This is my first year on this site I literally registered a couple months ago... And I already put out a thread with my Rankings and stuff. Sorry I don’t have a time machine to go back and post stuff earlier. 

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, Da_Ducktator said:

Good to know somebody who doesn't post all year comes and posts one-liners with a few splash rankings to grabs people attention.

Love for you to show me all these people that supposedly have Ragnow and Hernandez top 15, three of the "big five" QBs as 2nd's, with Austin Corbett as high as I do or Josh Adams for that matter. And that's not even mentioning Cruik, Oren Burks, Cichy, Natrell Jamerson, or Shaquem Griffin all top 100 (last three I all have as 3rds in my position ranking).

Or just drop some desperate plea for attention like Mark Walton is a franchise saving running back...

 

2 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

This is my first year on this site I literally registered a couple months ago... And I already put out a thread with my Rankings and stuff. Sorry I don’t have a time machine to go back and post stuff earlier. 

To be fair, @AlNFL19 did put up a thread.   And he's tried to put counter analysis in the other posts, not just one-liners here.    No need to go after how long he's posted here.   People have to start somewhere. 

I like how you broke down the Big Board into tiers - keep doing that.   It's nice to see you underfill the tiers, too.  It helps contextualize if you think the draft is deep or not.   And not pull a Jon Gruden and put 100 guys in a top 25 list lol.     What might help in future ranks that's a simple thing to do - I think if you had separated lines between the top 30 ranks where you see a big talent gap (as top 10 and top 15 and top 20 isn't necessarily easy to conceptualize a talent gap, other than numerically), it would likely look even more different than CW - not that you have to be different than CW, but it heightens the picks you put in, like Ward as a top 3 talent over say Chubb.  That's a non-CW opinion, or at least, an opinion you'd get a lot of dissent on.   I think the top 10/top 15/top 20 made it hard to see much separation at work, if you see a gap there. 

It's a ton of work to do these ranks, we have a big board, and people stop at 5 with us at 1.5.  I went to 20-25 just because we might get to 1.12 and 1.22, and it's a ton of work, and a 2-round big board even more so.    So much respect there.  Don't take critique as criticism, the ensuing discussion is really how we learn, even if the critique doesn't hold. 

The Ward, Vea, Sweat and Warner takes are very aggressive.  I like the boldness there.   I do think you're underselling Rosen by a fair amount, unless the injury risk is what's driving the rank down.

 

[Da_Ducktator]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I like how you broke down the Big Board into tiers - keep doing that.   It's nice to see you underfill the tiers, too.  It helps contextualize if you think the draft is deep or not.   And not pull a Jon Gruden and put 100 guys in a top 25 list lol.     What might help in future ranks that's a simple thing to do - I think if you had separated lines between the top 30 ranks where you see a big talent gap (as top 10 and top 15 and top 20 isn't necessarily easy to conceptualize a talent gap, other than numerically), it would like different than CW - not that you have to be different than CW, but it heightens the picks you put in, like Ward as a top 3 talent over say Chubb.  That's a non-CW opinion, or at least, an opinion you'd get a lot of dissent on.   I think the top 10/top 15/top 20 made it hard to see much separation at work, if you see a gap there. 

It's a ton of work to do these ranks, we have a big board, and people stop at 5 with us at 1.5.  I went to 20-25 just because we might get to 1.12 and 1.22, and it's a ton of work, and a 2-round big board even more so.    So much respect there.  Don't take critique as criticism, the ensuing discussion is really how we learn, even if the critique doesn't hold. 

The Ward, Vea, Sweat and Warner takes are very aggressive.  I like the boldness there.   I do think you're underselling Rosen by a fair amount, unless the injury risk is what's driving the rank down.

 

Appreciate the notes and get where you're coming from on separating the top 1st round tiers as well.

Denzel is an elite athlete at the position and honestly, the guy doesn't come with much in terms of flaws. Is he a little undersized? Sure, but he meets the 5'10" threshold (5107), with elite athleticism, 31 1/4" arms, fluid hips and willingness to step up against the run and play special teams as well. Add-in he is a stand-up guy off the field and well-spoken, I have a hard-time believing he isn't going to have an awesome career. The Champ Bailey comparison was more-so in terms of body type and athleticism. I think they are a bit different on the field (Champ would let opposing receivers get slightly open to bait QB's to throw it whereas Ward just sticks his man and doesn't allow separation). I know Chris Harris' comps get thrown around a lot for Ward and I just didn't think that did justice in terms of his athleticism.

I haven't understand hate on Vea so much. Okay, the "stats" aren't great. But all you have to do is turn on Washington tape to see a nearly 350 lbs. man eating double teams, creating pressure when he isn't doubled, and running sideline-to-sideline to get involved on plays. The raw ability is insane with him. It is hard for me to see Vea not carving out a career that at least resembles Dontari's Poe. 

I think Josh Sweat doesn't get the love he deserves because of the previous knee injuries. They are a bit scary, but his medicals have been cleared and he was an absolute force last year. It would be nice if he was used more in a role like Robert Quinn was in at UNC, lining up in a Wide 9 technique and just being unleashed. But, that's not what the Seminoles decided to do and he still managed 12.5 TFL. Sweat even topped Quinn in every athletic testing category. Sweat is an absolute freak who should be a better pro than college pro. The other thing people don't seem to mention on him; 34 5/8" arms that top every EDGE player I have a draftable grade on except for Duke Ejiofor.

Fred Warner will at least be an awesome coverage linebacker. BYU gave him a lot of responsibility and he possesses the range and fluidness of a safety. Not easy to find in a 236 lbs. man. Eric Kendricks is known largely due to his great coverage ability and I truly think Warner profiles similarly on the field and testing-wise.

I talked in-depth on Rosen before. To sum up, he falls into a grouping that has 14 previous QB's to go in the first four rounds with a sub 37% conversion rate on 3rd downs in their final collegiate year. Derek Carr is the only starter of that group. He has the second-worst QB rating in the red zone in his final year in college of QB's to be drafted in the first two rounds (if you got rid of Tim Tebow, Rosen would be last). The only other names with a sub 160 QB rating in the RZ on last year are Josh Freeman, Jimmy Clausen, Brock Osweiler, Christian Hackenberg, and Blaine Gabbert. And it was not strictly the final year; as a sophomore Rosen completed just six of 22 passes (27.3%) in the red zone.

A lot is made of how pro-ready Rosen is due to the silky smooth mechanics and the off-field "concerns" seem to overshadow the simple fact that he has an average arm for the NFL game. He reminds me so much of Clausen. A previously uberly-hyped recruit who were never able to win at their schools, generally looks clean mechanically on the field, but struggles to throw deep, mightily struggles against pressure and when forced to throw from a different launch point, and ultimately have average arms for the next level. There is a reason the NFL is willing to take chances on a DeShone Kizer or Joe Flacco or Josh Allen; having a cannon arm provides more potential. The Eli Manning and Matt Ryan comparisons are too much for my taste with Rosen. They both, clearly, had NFL arms. Ryan played too much hero ball at BC but the arm talent was there. Eli had/has plenty of arm too.

When you 'play it safe' with your QB's, overlooking an average arm and statistical concerns (which point to a lack of arm talent as well), that's how you end up with guys like Christian Ponder, Clausen, Brian Brohm. For the sack of NFL franchises, only Ponder went 1st round. But Brohm and Clausen were hyped as 1st rounders and potential franchise guys by nearly everybody. Why? Clean mechanics, big names, and saying the arm was "good enough."

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, Da_Ducktator said:

Appreciate the notes and get where you're coming from on separating the top 1st round tiers as well.

Denzel is an elite athlete at the position and honestly, the guy doesn't come with much in terms of flaws. Is he a little undersized? Sure, but he meets the 5'10" threshold (5107), with elite athleticism, 31 1/4" arms, fluid hips and willingness to step up against the run and play special teams as well. Add-in he is a stand-up guy off the field and well-spoken, I have a hard-time believing he isn't going to have an awesome career. The Champ Bailey comparison was more-so in terms of body type and athleticism. I think they are a bit different on the field (Champ would let opposing receivers get slightly open to bait QB's to throw it whereas Ward just sticks his man and doesn't allow separation). I know Chris Harris' comps get thrown around a lot for Ward and I just didn't think that did justice in terms of his athleticism.

I haven't understand hate on Vea so much. Okay, the "stats" aren't great. But all you have to do is turn on Washington tape to see a nearly 350 lbs. man eating double teams, creating pressure when he isn't doubled, and running sideline-to-sideline to get involved on plays. The raw ability is insane with him. It is hard for me to see Vea not carving out a career that at least resembles Dontari's Poe. 

I think Josh Sweat doesn't get the love he deserves because of the previous knee injuries. They are a bit scary, but his medicals have been cleared and he was an absolute force last year. It would be nice if he was used more in a role like Robert Quinn was in at UNC, lining up in a Wide 9 technique and just being unleashed. But, that's not what the Seminoles decided to do and he still managed 12.5 TFL. Sweat even topped Quinn in every athletic testing category. Sweat is an absolute freak who should be a better pro than college pro. The other thing people don't seem to mention on him; 34 5/8" arms that top every EDGE player I have a draftable grade on except for Duke Ejiofor.

Fred Warner will at least be an awesome coverage linebacker. BYU gave him a lot of responsibility and he possesses the range and fluidness of a safety. Not easy to find in a 236 lbs. man. Eric Kendricks is known largely due to his great coverage ability and I truly think Warner profiles similarly on the field and testing-wise.

I talked in-depth on Rosen before. To sum up, he falls into a grouping that has 14 previous QB's to go in the first four rounds with a sub 37% conversion rate on 3rd downs in their final collegiate year. Derek Carr is the only starter of that group. He has the second-worst QB rating in the red zone in his final year in college of QB's to be drafted in the first two rounds (if you got rid of Tim Tebow, Rosen would be last). The only other names with a sub 160 QB rating in the RZ on last year are Josh Freeman, Jimmy Clausen, Brock Osweiler, Christian Hackenberg, and Blaine Gabbert. And it was not strictly the final year; as a sophomore Rosen completed just six of 22 passes (27.3%) in the red zone.

A lot is made of how pro-ready Rosen is due to the silky smooth mechanics and the off-field "concerns" seem to overshadow the simple fact that he has an average arm for the NFL game. He reminds me so much of Clausen. A previously uberly-hyped recruit who were never able to win at their schools, generally looks clean mechanically on the field, but struggles to throw deep, mightily struggles against pressure and when forced to throw from a different launch point, and ultimately have average arms for the next level. There is a reason the NFL is willing to take chances on a DeShone Kizer or Joe Flacco or Josh Allen; having a cannon arm provides more potential. The Eli Manning and Matt Ryan comparisons are too much for my taste with Rosen. They both, clearly, had NFL arms. Ryan played too much hero ball at BC but the arm talent was there. Eli had/has plenty of arm too.

When you 'play it safe' with your QB's, overlooking an average arm and statistical concerns (which point to a lack of arm talent as well), that's how you end up with guys like Christian Ponder, Clausen, Brian Brohm. For the sack of NFL franchises, only Ponder went 1st round. But Brohm and Clausen were hyped as 1st rounders and potential franchise guys by nearly everybody. Why? Clean mechanics, big names, and saying the arm was "good enough."

You've covered Rosen in-depth, and I respect that.  Just think a 2nd round grade is way too harsh, that's all.  His strengths are the most pro-ready, I get if you worry his arm isn't enough to get there, I see the anticipation / timing / read progression as being so good it won't be an issue (and didn't see his arm as a major flag, although not a cannon like Allen's, few are lol).   I respect the take, though, just I think the strengths are more than where your assessment is at.  Orlovsky's recent take is a good example of this:

 Either way, though, all good.   Props for the board, it's tough work.

[Da_Ducktator]

5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

You've covered Rosen in-depth, and I respect that.  Just think a 2nd round grade is way too harsh, that's all.  His strengths are the most pro-ready, I get if you worry his arm isn't enough to get there, I see the anticipation / timing as being so good it won't be an issue (and didn't see his arm as a major flag, although not a cannon like Allen's, few are lol).

To each their own. Plenty like Rosen, so we'll see how it pans out.

I just view Rosen as a good back-up who could make spot starts in the right system. I think with the flaws he shows on tape, he would have to be in an awesome situation to have sustained success in the NFL. Think Matt Cassel the year he was good in New England. And honestly, they are kind of reminiscent of each other too in terms of skill-set. Clean mechanically that covers up an average arm (that's the other thing about clean mechanics, it can make an average arm look better than it is, that's why I've noted multiple times and pulled up clips of when Rosen has to throw on the move and when his body is not in sync, a la when it comes down strictly to arm talent, and how he struggles mightily in those areas) and falters when dealing with pressure and having to move from the launch point. Sure, Cassel was solid for one season in New England playing with an amazing squad and solid for one year in Kansas City had a really good surrounding cast (Jamaal Charles, good Dwayne Bowe, really solid O-Line anchored by Brian Waters, and a solid defense). But nothing of Cassel was sustainable because ultimately he had the average arm and was bad when forced to throw on the move (again, a glaring problem on Rosen's tape).

[tom cody]

Thanks for sharing this. Will be interesting to see tonight how the rankings all go down.