Which WR is/was greater? Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald

[footbull3196]

7 hours ago, theuntouchable said:

That’s my point though, I don’t think you could say a 9 point, or even 14 point deficit towards the beginning of the fourth quarter would deem garbage time. Especially if that team is already in the midst of a drive or score soon after the beginning of the quarter and push it to a one score game. Is it an uphill battle? Sure but it’s not something that is going to take crazy luck to come back from. Especially an offense that features players like Stafford and Calvin. 

But we don’t actually know if that figure would be above the average because we don’t know the average. The 11% average was given on the authors original meaning of garbage time, which was being down by 14 or more points at any point in a game. In that context of garbage time Calvin was actually below the average at 8%. Without knowing the average of the new parameters, we cannot determine if he is above the average and how far he would be. I just used the 11% as a baseline because it was the only average given. I don’t think it’s far fetched to see that average increase given the parameters of being down 9 points or more instead of being down 14 points or more. 

I can understand the titans game being arguable towards garbage time given the context of the game. I was being facetious in my attempt to point out how the context within the context can change the scope of the parameters. 

Wes Walker had 1737 yards on 196 targets in the year you mentioned. (3 more games than calvin)

Fitz had 1977 yards on 196 targets (4 more games than Calvin and a crazy performance in the playoffs that was above his average)

that year, yes Marshall was the only one close. He had 12 fewer targets and 400 less yards. Outside of that year, several players have been pretty close to that amount and a few even over that amount. None of them have the record or even had the record. Out of the top 25 targets in a season of all time, Calvin is listed once and that was 2012. 

Well, yeah, he wouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath. Myers had nearly 40% of his yards accrued in garbage time. Nearly three times as much as Calvin but that was my point. The only other person listed, had a crazy amount of his yards in garbage time. 

Same year, same parameters. Team down by 8 points in the 4th quarter. 

Larry Fitzgerald - 109 yards of his 798 yards. 13.65%

I say go ahead and include when the lions were up by 9, it wasn’t very often at all that season, one game Lol. The other WRs not being available should clue you in more on how much attention he received that season. Even with that, he was still able to catch 60% of his targets and get over 16 yards per catch. You could even go as far as to look at yards per target and Calvin would likely still trump all of them. 

Well, yeah, you’re best player is obviously going to see more targets when the team is struggling but he still had to face heavy resistance and do well. Which he did. 

And it’s not like he had some crazy never before seen numbers for targets, heck there was two people that year that were basically within 10. One within 9 and one within 12. He had 600 more yards than the guy who had 195 targets (Reggie Wayne) and 400 more yards than the guy who has 192 targets (Brandon Marshall). That’s a pretty significant difference in production output with minimal increase in targets. 

Did he have some garbage time then? absolutely the lions were bad that year. They didn’t have a consistent run game and had no other consistent threats. He still did it regardless of that. Did he have enough of it to say a large chunk of his yards? No, especially compared to his peers.

I would still argue though, that garbage time should be more like in the 8 minute mark and being down 8 points or more because a full quarter is a lot of football. If you wanted to include the entire 4th quarter because time could be difficult to follow with a change in context, then I would say the point differential should be 15+ for the beginning of the 4th

Ok, I finally understand the point you're trying to make here.  Even though Calvin benefitted from a large number of targets, he still accumulated those yards at a higher rate than the majority of the rest of the league regardless of context. I can admit that's probably the case, even if some of these situations were in question (most particularly, the Falcons game where he set the record in the first place)

I still think that the garbage time narrative can be applied to his season with some legitimacy.  But I'm at the point now where I can see why people would agree to disagree on this.  Your last post made me rethink this topic a bit and I can't argue the disparity in yards between Calvin and the next closest competitor

Hopefully a topic like this helps put into perspective some other players who are actually garbage time players (for example it's crystal clear now that Blake bortles' 2015 season with 35 TDs was almost purely garbage time stats, especially if we use the definition that I went by for this topic)

[theuntouchable]

1 hour ago, footbull3196 said:

Ok, I finally understand the point you're trying to make here.  Even though Calvin benefitted from a large number of targets, he still accumulated those yards at a higher rate than the majority of the rest of the league regardless of context. I can admit that's probably the case, even if some of these situations were in question (most particularly, the Falcons game where he set the record in the first place)

I still think that the garbage time narrative can be applied to his season with some legitimacy.  But I'm at the point now where I can see why people would agree to disagree on this.  Your last post made me rethink this topic a bit and I can't argue the disparity in yards between Calvin and the next closest competitor

Hopefully a topic like this helps put into perspective some other players who are actually garbage time players (for example it's crystal clear now that Blake bortles' 2015 season with 35 TDs was almost purely garbage time stats, especially if we use the definition that I went by for this topic)

I wasn’t saying there was no legitimate argument towards some garbage time stats, just that it was a bit less than it may have been perceived. There was absolutely some that season as the Lions were not a very good team. Their defense had a hard time stopping anybody and Calvin was really the only threat on offense.

Basically, I just feel like the amount of garbage time stats wasn’t enough to try and include an asterisk next to the milestone he hit. Sure he had some stats padded but he was also the only viable weapon on a team that played horribly and faced a good amount of attention and still produced at a very good rate. 

[Nnivolcm]

16 hours ago, footbull3196 said:

My definition of garbage time is the same one that ive been using from my original quote. 

I've found the problem. You're definition of garbage time is a bad one. 

[Bobikus]

2 hours ago, Nnivolcm said:

I've found the problem. You're definition of garbage time is a bad one. 

Which definition is this?  The "trailing by 8+ in 4th Q?"  If so, yeah, that's a poor definition, way too much football left to make a cutoff there, there's still a good 5-6% chance of winning if you enter the 4th Q down 8+, so it's not like the game is entirely over yet.

 

imo it's not garbage time until you're down to like, <3% win probability.

[Duluther]

I'll take Larry every time.