MVP Race

[Nabbs4u]

Somewhere Gurley and Goff are hoping for Co-MVP's for both Mahomes and Brees.

This way neither Win the SB!!! 🍺😎

[Raves]

 

52 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

Not only odds, statistics too.

Rams had 13 drives sans the one-play drives at the end of each half. They scored touchdowns on 38.5% (5/13). So on the 5 turnovers - that’s two TDs.

EDIT: Although, statistics are odds too, I guess. But that’s just them fleshed out a little.

Well for them to score exactly 2 TDs based on those 5 turnovers it would've been a 34.48% based on the 38.5% you provided, so that's not a great chance.  Now if you change it to scoring at least 2 TDs over those 5 turnovers using that 38.5% then it jumps to 63.66% which isn't bad but still not too high, though granted where the ball was turned over at would play into increasing or decreasing the chances due to field position.  Though since we know what happened on the other 3 drives, it's cheating to double dip again in regards to the 2 turnovers that were returned for TDs without the Rams offense stepping onto the field.  The chance of the Rams converting both turnovers into touchdowns based on their 38.5% of TDs on drives drops drastically to 14.82% chance to score a touchdown on both drives.  Once against field position would adjust the odds again, but math doesn't really back up your argument.

31 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

I want to apologize to you. I’ve been saying your posts have been hypocritical this whole time, but I don’t think you know what it means. 

See when you laud Brees for TDs/yards/completion percentage in a loss, but don’t do so for Mahomes (then go on to say he’s the reason they lost) - that’s hypocorsy. 

When you want to give context to Brees’ shortcomings, but not Mahomes’ - that’s hypocrisy. 

Me saying JJSS needs to be more consistent in order to be a top 10 receiver and then later saying that I’d take Mahomes over Brees in a toss up for MVP, isn’t hypocrisy unless the MVP award only accounts for whomever is most consistent.

Personal rankings =/= NFL awards, bud. I didn’t think Matt Ryan was #1 in the league when he won MVP, even though he deserved to win it. Same with Cam. 

Keep up the quality posts.

No, you are completely removing context from the equation when discussing the two.  If Brees had the turnovers to be added into his stats for the losses then they would be added, but they aren't there.  With Mahomes those turnovers are there and directly led to points.  Look at the stats above to show how it affected the game and the chances that the Rams would've still gotten the points had those 5 turnovers happened, specifically the 2 that ended up being 100% chance of scoring.  So it's fair to use Brees stats to show what he did in his loss and how it was better than what Mahomes did in his loss.  I mean outside of those turnovers Mahomes would still be the frontrunner for the MVP.

[jrry32]

1 hour ago, Mid Iowa said:

Well the Rams won all of their other road games.

I can't help anything about the refs. Maybe your team should have figured out how to score more. I know the refs play good offense, huh? Did any penalties put the ball in the endzone, or even close? Continue a dead drive? Nope!!

I'll stop shorting Mahomes when he stops turning the ball over in losses!!!!!!

You guys make more excuses than my kids.

It sounds like somebody conveniently forgot about the bad call that took points off the board for the Rams at a crucial moment in the game.

[Mid Iowa]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

It sounds like somebody conveniently forgot about the bad call that took points off the board for the Rams at a crucial moment in the game.

You still lost by 10, probably should have been 17.

Next!

[jrry32]

5 minutes ago, Mid Iowa said:

You still lost by 10, probably should have been 17.

Next!

And Drew Brees has thrown 8 less TDs and for 500 less yards than the true MVP.

Next!

[Jlowe22]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

And Drew Brees has thrown 8 less TDs and for 500 less yards than the true MVP.

Next!

8 TDs fine, but since when has yards mattered? 

[jrry32]

Just now, Jlowe22 said:

8 TDs fine, but since when has yards mattered? 

Since I decided to just post nonsensical crap to have the last word.

[Jlowe22]

1 minute ago, jrry32 said:

Since I decided to just post nonsensical crap to have the last word.

Fair enough.

[Mid Iowa]

Just now, jrry32 said:

Since I decided to just post nonsensical crap to have the last word.

Yeah, you trolled the Saints forum until your team lost, then poof! Gone. So I suppose this is your runner up trolling prize.

You lost.

[Mid Iowa]

1 hour ago, Yin-Yang said:

Framing a guy one way using one brush and discrediting his opponent with a different brush is hypocritical. That’s all. 

No, not really. If you wish to look at it that way, it's more of a double standard, but not hypocritical. I won't expect you to understand after I already gave you the definition, so I'll assume many of your other comments are mislead/misleading, too.

[jrry32]

4 minutes ago, Mid Iowa said:

Yeah, you trolled the Saints forum until your team lost, then poof! Gone. So I suppose this is your runner up trolling prize.

You lost.

Here's the Rams-Saints thread from the Saints forum:

Feel free to post the "troll" comments I made. Or, if it's not in there, point us to the thread and comments where I was trolling before the game. I'll wait.

[Soko]

1 hour ago, Raves said:

 

Well for them to score exactly 2 TDs based on those 5 turnovers it would've been a 34.48% based on the 38.5% you provided, so that's not a great chance.  Now if you change it to scoring at least 2 TDs over those 5 turnovers using that 38.5% then it jumps to 63.66% which isn't bad but still not too high, though granted where the ball was turned over at would play into increasing or decreasing the chances due to field position.  Though since we know what happened on the other 3 drives, it's cheating to double dip again in regards to the 2 turnovers that were returned for TDs without the Rams offense stepping onto the field.  The chance of the Rams converting both turnovers into touchdowns based on their 38.5% of TDs on drives drops drastically to 14.82% chance to score a touchdown on both drives.  Once against field position would adjust the odds again, but math doesn't really back up your argument.

Can you explain? You lost me quite a bit here. 

1 hour ago, Raves said:

No, you are completely removing context from the equation when discussing the two.  If Brees had the turnovers to be added into his stats for the losses then they would be added, but they aren't there.  With Mahomes those turnovers are there and directly led to points.  Look at the stats above to show how it affected the game and the chances that the Rams would've still gotten the points had those 5 turnovers happened, specifically the 2 that ended up being 100% chance of scoring.  So it's fair to use Brees stats to show what he did in his loss and how it was better than what Mahomes did in his loss.  I mean outside of those turnovers Mahomes would still be the frontrunner for the MVP.

It’s fair to laud Brees for his yards/completions/TDs in a loss. It’s fair to criticize Mahomes’ turnovers in a loss. What’s not fair, is to forego Mahomes’ superior numbers because he had turnovers.

If you actually read everything, you’d see that, for the 100th time, I’m not debating Mahomes and Brees right now with any of you Saints fans. 

1 hour ago, Raves said:

So it's fair to use Brees stats to show what he did in his loss and how it was better than what Mahomes did in his loss.  

Would you compare two players performances like that? You would say, “Player A player better than Player B, because Player A had a few TDs/yards and Player B had 3 picks”? Or would you look at the complete picture?

[Soko]

43 minutes ago, Mid Iowa said:

No, not really. If you wish to look at it that way, it's more of a double standard, but not hypocritical. I won't expect you to understand after I already gave you the definition, so I'll assume many of your other comments are mislead/misleading, too.

I’ll send you your google-know-how degree in the mail. 

All I ask in return is fair comparisons from now on. Why not post all stats from losses? Why not provide context for all players being compared? 

I wonder if it has anything at all to do with the uniforms being worn. 

[Raves]

1 minute ago, Yin-Yang said:

Can you explain? You lost me quite a bit here. 

It’s fair to laud Brees for his yards/completions/TDs in a loss. It’s fair to criticize Mahomes’ turnovers in a loss. What’s not fair, is to forego Mahomes’ superior numbers because he had turnovers.

If you actually read everything, you’d see that, for the 100th time, I’m not debating Mahomes and Brees right now with any of you Saints fans. 

Would you compare two players performances like that? You would say, “Player A player better than Player B, because Player A had a few TDs/yards and Player B had 3 picks”? Or would you look at the complete picture?

Ok, based on the 38.5% chances of scoring a TD on a drive provided.

Probability to score exactly 2 TDs in 5 attempts (number of turnovers) = 34.48%

Probability to score at least 2 TDs in 5 attempts = 63.66%

Since we know the results of the other 3 turnovers though, we only need to look at the probability of the Rams scoring a TD on the 2 turnovers that were returned for a TD by the defense.

Probability of scoring 2 TDs in those 2 possessions = 14.82%

The field position of where the turnover/punt will adjust numbers as well.

[Soko]

4 minutes ago, Raves said:

Ok, based on the 38.5% chances of scoring a TD on a drive provided.

You misread, homie. I said the Rams scored TDs in 38.5% of their drives (minus the two drives to end each half). I didn’t say that was the scoring probability. It’s the TD rate.

If they were scoring TDs at a 38.5% clip, then out of 5, that’s about 2 TDs.