How good is Jared Goff?

[jrry32]

13 minutes ago, pwny said:

Because they're mediocre at best QBs. If guys who barely crack the top 20 or so are coming extremely close to striking distance, and doing so at a much higher rate than ever previously, the stat doesn't mean anything anymore. And yes, they haven't done it yet, but Mahomes and Mayfield are about guaranteed to both hit the target next year. This isn't an elite club anymore. It's going to be a new benchmark for good vs bad QBs at all.

Mahomes will almost certainly do it, but that's not undermining my point. Mayfield is far from guaranteed to do it. The fact is that those guys you named didn't do it.

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Okay. Let's compare to some other restricted milestones. Show me the RBs that got really close to 2k yards that weren't actually good RBs. Only three QBs have also hit 50 TDs; the same number who have hit your stat for Goff. Show me the ones that got really close that were actually mediocre. 

I have Goff somewhere between 5 and 8 based on the last two seasons. But this stat isn't indicative of anything.

 

Okay, let's talk leading your team to a Super Bowl. In the past decade, Mark Sanchez, Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Jay Cutler have almost led their teams to the Super Bowl. But hey, a QB leading his team to the Super Bowl is no big deal, right? Further, Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton have almost won it. Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, and Nick Foles have actually won it. That must mean that a QB leading his team to a Super Bowl is no big deal, right?

As for your 2k yard question, Jamal Lewis and Chris Johnson actually topped 2000 yards. And then you add these guys to the list:

Ahman Green - 1883 rushing yards

Shaun Alexander - 1880 rushing yards

Ricky Williams - 1853 rushing yards

Jamal Anderson - 1846 rushing yards

DeMarco Murray - 1845 rushing yards

Larry Johnson - 1789 rushing yards

Larry Johnson - 1750 rushing yards (1351 of which came in 9 games)

[pwny]

Among QBs that have played at least 17 games the last two seasons, Goff is:

4th in TDs
5th in TD%
8th in INT%
6th in passer rating
3rd in YPA
3rd in AY/A
3rd in ANY/A
6th in YPG

This does include Mahomes, for those wondering.

For those below, I can't get a combined rate, so I'm going to post 17, followed by 18 rankings

DYAR: 6th, 7th
YAR: 8th, 6th
DVOA: 5th, 6th
VOA: 6th, 5th
QBR: 18th, 11th
EYds: 9th, 6th
ALEX: 30th, 30th

The only real knock on him is his ALEX; that he routinely throws behind the sticks on third down.

[jrry32]

19 minutes ago, pwny said:

Among QBs that have played at least 17 games the last two seasons, Goff is:

4th in TDs
5th in TD%
8th in INT%
6th in passer rating
3rd in YPA
3rd in AY/A
3rd in ANY/A
6th in YPG

This does include Mahomes, for those wondering.

For those below, I can't get a combined rate, so I'm going to post 17, followed by 18 rankings

DYAR: 6th, 7th
YAR: 8th, 6th
DVOA: 5th, 6th
VOA: 6th, 5th
QBR: 18th, 11th
EYds: 9th, 6th
ALEX: 30th, 30th

The only real knock on him is his ALEX; that he routinely throws behind the sticks on third down.

Other teams might want to try that. Rams were 5th in 3rd Down Conversion Rate this year and 9th last year. 

[pwny]

12 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Okay, let's talk leading your team to a Super Bowl. In the past decade, Mark Sanchez, Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, and Jay Cutler have almost led their teams to the Super Bowl. But hey, a QB leading his team to the Super Bowl is no big deal, right? Further, Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton have almost won it. Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, and Nick Foles have actually won it. That must mean that a QB leading his team to a Super Bowl is no big deal, right?

Are you suggesting that only great QBs lead their teams to a Super Bowl? Or are you admitting that mediocre ones can win?

13 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

As for your 2k yard question, Jamal Lewis and Chris Johnson actually topped 2000 yards. And then you add these guys to the list:

Jamal Lewis is 24th all time in rushing yards. Chris Johnson is 35th.

14 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Ahman Green - 1883 rushing yards - 4 time Pro Bowler, who averaged 1370 yards over his 5 season prime

Shaun Alexander - 1880 rushing yards - 3 time Pro Bowler who averaged 1500 yards over his 5 year prime

Ricky Williams - 1853 rushing yards - averaged 1368 yards per game the four seasons before he left football to be a pot head

Jamal Anderson - 1846 rushing yards - I’ll give you this one

DeMarco Murray - 1845 rushing yards - and this one

Larry Johnson - 1789 rushing yards

Larry Johnson - 1750 rushing yards (1351 of which came in 9 games) - doing this in back to back years, before getting injured is a big deal  

 

[pwny]

5 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Other teams might want to try that. Rams were 5th in 3rd Down Conversion Rate this year and 9th last year. 

Or maybe having Gurley as a safety blanket is something others don’t get the luxury of. We can assume he’d probably be better if he didn’t have that luxury, but how can one know?

[El Ramster]

So with what @pwny has said and posted. He’s pro Goff just not pro pro goff. Which goes back to what LBC said. He’s better than what most think yet not as good what Jerry thinks. 

[pwny]

1 minute ago, El ramster said:

So with what @pwny has said and posted. He’s pro Goff just not pro pro goff. Which goes back to what LBC said. He’s better than what most think yet not as good what Jerry thinks. 

P much. Mostly, I just think that *stat* pointed to is an awful measure because of how many players, many mediocre, have come to hitting the threshold. It’s not an achievement now the way it was 6 or so years ago.

[jrry32]

3 minutes ago, pwny said:

Or maybe having Gurley as a safety blanket is something others don’t get the luxury of. We can assume he’d probably be better if he didn’t have that luxury, but how can one know?

Have you checked Gurley's splits? He had a total of 4 receptions for 20 yards on 3rd downs this year. My bet is that Goff's numbers are deflated because McVay loves to run quick WR screens on 3rd down (which were surprisingly effective).

5 minutes ago, pwny said:

Are you suggesting that only great QBs lead their teams to a Super Bowl? Or are you admitting that mediocre ones can win?

I'm suggesting that everybody sees winning the Super Bowl as a major accomplishment for a QB. True or false?

[Blackstar12]

On 1/25/2019 at 8:06 AM, BStanRamFan said:

I do. I can't put Goff over luck yet. Luck has done more with less since the beginning of his career. He is a once in a generation talent to me and I think with the amount of cap space/picks the Colts have next year they will be the dominant team in the AFC for the 5-7 years barring injury to Luck.

So excited for the future of the Colts this was a fun season. Another thing that's nice is the AFC isn't really that strong as a whole.

[pwny]

1 hour ago, jrry32 said:

I'm suggesting that everybody sees winning the Super Bowl as a major accomplishment for a QB. True or false?

I think people spent a decade discrediting Brady on the basis of winning Super Bowls because Brad Johnson won one. I think you spent years arguing Manning > Brady (even when the total was 3-0) because you never viewed Super Bowl wins as some defining characteristic that meant a player was better. 

Winning or going to a Super Bowl is an accomplishment, sure. It’s not an accomplishment that necessarily correlates to individual player skill.

[jrry32]

1 minute ago, pwny said:

I think people spent a decade discrediting Brady on the basis of winning Super Bowls because Brad Johnson won one. I think you spent years arguing Manning > Brady (even when the total was 3-0) because you never viewed Super Bowl wins as some defining characteristic that meant a player was better. 

Winning or going to a Super Bowl is an accomplishment, sure. It’s not an accomplishment that necessarily correlates to individual player skill.

There are few accomplishments in football that necessarily correlates to individual player skill. You can always find exceptions. And I'm not talking about how I regard it. You already made clear that how I regard something doesn't matter to this conversation. I am asking you how it is generally regarded by football fans.

[pwny]

8 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

I am asking you how it is generally regarded by football fans.

I mean I already gave you the Brad Johnson example. I already explained how Brady was discredited for a decade because at least half of people believed he didn’t earned those titles. 

We can go further if you want - Dan Marino is widely considered the second best QB of his generation, and top 6-10 all time. John Elway played his entire career alongside Marino, went to 5 Super Bowls (from the same conference as Marino) and won two, and no one would ever dare even think about them in the same tier. 

Eli Manning won two - and is a part of two of the biggest moments in Super Bowl history - and no one has ever even viewed him as a top 10 QB for more than a year or so. Philip Rivers came into the league at the same time as Eli, never even made the Super Bowl, and virtually everyone would call him a far, far, superior player. The only people that think Eli should go in the hall before Rivers do so not on Eli’s accomplishments, but the fact that those two Super Bowl wins are a part of the NFL story and can’t be left out. 

 “Is Joe Flacco elite” became a meme that transcended sports because no one bought into him being worth the contract he got after winning that title. 

No team was even interested in trading for Nick Foles after he won the title.

The only people who view Super Bowl wins as some grand QB accomplishment that elevates a player over another without any context applied are casuals. And we aren’t casuals discussing Goff here, so let’s cut the nonsense about casual views meaning anything.

[jrry32]

3 minutes ago, pwny said:

I mean I already gave you the Brad Johnson example. I already explained how Brady was discredited for a decade because at least half of people believed he didn’t earned those titles. 

We can go further if you want - Dan Marino is widely considered the second best QB of his generation, and top 6-10 all time. John Elway played his entire career alongside Marino, went to 5 Super Bowls (from the same conference as Marino) and won two, and no one would ever dare even think about them in the same tier. 

Eli Manning won two - and is a part of two of the biggest moments in Super Bowl history - and no one has ever even viewed him as a top 10 QB for more than a year or so. Philip Rivers came into the league at the same time as Eli, never even made the Super Bowl, and virtually everyone would call him a far, far, superior player. The only people that think Eli should go in the hall before Rivers do so not on Eli’s accomplishments, but the fact that those two Super Bowl wins are a part of the NFL story and can’t be left out. 

 “Is Joe Flacco elite” became a meme that transcended sports because no one bought into him being worth the contract he got after winning that title. 

No team was even interested in trading for Nick Foles after he won the title.

The only people who view Super Bowl wins as some grand QB accomplishment that elevates a player over another without any context applied are casuals. And we aren’t casuals discussing Goff here, so let’s cut the nonsense about casual views meaning anything.

Let's see, Marino isn't close to the GOAT discussion because he never won a Super Bowl. Eli was bandied about as a HOFer for a time despite all his issues because of those two playoff runs. We all know about Playoff Flacco. And there were teams interested in trading for Foles after he won the title (that's just blatantly untrue statement). People on this site fall prey to the Super Bowl hype. We aren't casuals discussing Goff. And as not casuals, we can both recognize the significance of Goff's combination of bulk and efficiency production, which undermines you dragging people like Dalton and Bortles into this discussion.

[jrry32]

Frankly, iPwn, I can't even figure out what point you're trying to make at this juncture. You eliminated the majority of my post to go off on some weird tangent. I noted how impressive Goff's bulk production is for a QB of his age while also qualifying that with my discussion about this era. I then added his efficiency numbers to give further context to the point I made (that his numbers are really freaking good). I'm not sure why you chose to delete all that discussion to harp on a point that I'm not sure I ever made (because I'm not sure what the point was).

[bzane]

31 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Frankly, iPwn, I can't even figure out what point you're trying to make at this juncture. You eliminated the majority of my post to go off on some weird tangent. I noted how impressive Goff's bulk production is for a QB of his age while also qualifying that with my discussion about this era. I then added his efficiency numbers to give further context to the point I made (that his numbers are really freaking good). I'm not sure why you chose to delete all that discussion to harp on a point that I'm not sure I ever made (because I'm not sure what the point was).

It is a little baffling, @jrry32. Best guess, it maaay have something to do with the fact that this discussion is about how good Jared Goff is, rather than another once-cherished quarterback hopeful: