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Iron_man

Other Games Thread week 13

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Its week 13 of the NFL season. This week's TNF game has the saints going into Dallas. Dallas has a pretty good defense but will they be over run by the saints high powered offense? Probably. Who ya got and are their any other games you are gonna watch this sunday/monday?

I think the saints take it. The chargers at the steelers looks to be an interesting game as well.

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Not that anyone cares, but here are my model's Week 13 game projections:

New Orleans (57%) 34-31 Dallas

Baltimore (50.2%) 31-30 Atlanta

Denver (60%) 33-29 Cincinnati

Los Angeles Rams (74%) 39-28 Detroit Lions

Green Bay (76%) 33-21 Arizona

Miami (60%) 23-18 Buffalo

Chicago (68%) 28-20 New York Giants

Carolina (70%) 40-31 Tampa Bay

Indianapolis (60%) 29-25 Jacksonville

Houston (59%) 27-22 Cleveland

New York Jets (53%) 27-26 Tennessee

Kansas City (68%) 38-30 Oakland

**New England Patriots (56%) 23-20 Minnesota Vikings

Seattle (70%) 31-21 San Francisco

Los Angeles Chargers (53%) 34-33 Pittsburgh

Washington (50.48%) 28-27 Philadelphia

Pretty high scoring, I'm still working on it a bit.

Model's current record (since Week 7): 57-27 (67.85%) - 10-5 last week.

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So who had the cowboys shutting out the saints for the whole first half? Nobody? Okay lol.

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That was a good defensive fight there, but imagine if the Cowboys had a better QB. Heck I think Ty Rod would run that offense much better than Dak can.

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On 29/11/2018 at 11:54 PM, AlNFL19 said:

Not that anyone cares, but here are my model's Week 13 game projections:

New Orleans (57%) 34-31 Dallas

Baltimore (50.2%) 31-30 Atlanta

Denver (60%) 33-29 Cincinnati

Los Angeles Rams (74%) 39-28 Detroit Lions

Green Bay (76%) 33-21 Arizona

Miami (60%) 23-18 Buffalo

Chicago (68%) 28-20 New York Giants

Carolina (70%) 40-31 Tampa Bay

Indianapolis (60%) 29-25 Jacksonville

Houston (59%) 27-22 Cleveland

New York Jets (53%) 27-26 Tennessee

Kansas City (68%) 38-30 Oakland

**New England Patriots (56%) 23-20 Minnesota Vikings

Seattle (70%) 31-21 San Francisco

Los Angeles Chargers (53%) 34-33 Pittsburgh

Washington (50.48%) 28-27 Philadelphia

Pretty high scoring, I'm still working on it a bit.

Model's current record (since Week 7): 57-27 (67.85%) - 10-5 last week.

What is this model? I like most of the results, but the scores are too close. Interesting, regardless.

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I think PIT will easily handle LAC at home, with LAC missing Denzel and Gordon. 

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4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I think PIT will easily handle LAC at home, with LAC missing Denzel and Gordon. 

Indeed. I think it will be an up hill battle for LAC.

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7 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

What is this model? I like most of the results, but the scores are too close. Interesting, regardless.

The model does tend to err on the side of caution. It also is a little handicapped in that there's no real way to adjust for injuries like those to Alex Smith and Melvin Gordon, or for this whole Hunt ordeal.

Basically, what it does is compares a bunch of rate stats, like ANY/A, to every team over the last three years in order to assign a percent value over average. It then averages out these percentages, which are weighted by roughly how closely correlated they are to winning. To find the result of a game, you simply find the difference of the two team's total percentages and add half to either team's percent chance of winning.

For example, Team A ranks at +10% and Team B is at +0%. On a neutral field (there is an adjustment for home-field advantage), Team A would win 55% of the time. This can then be roughly converted to a spread for the game, while scores are determined through the comparison of the two team's offenses and defenses.

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16 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

The model does tend to err on the side of caution. It also is a little handicapped in that there's no real way to adjust for injuries like those to Alex Smith and Melvin Gordon, or for this whole Hunt ordeal.

Basically, what it does is compares a bunch of rate stats, like ANY/A, to every team over the last three years in order to assign a percent value over average. It then averages out these percentages, which are weighted by roughly how closely correlated they are to winning. To find the result of a game, you simply find the difference of the two team's total percentages and add half to either team's percent chance of winning.

For example, Team A ranks at +10% and Team B is at +0%. On a neutral field (there is an adjustment for home-field advantage), Team A would win 55% of the time. This can then be roughly converted to a spread for the game, while scores are determined through the comparison of the two team's offenses and defenses.

Nice. I wonder if adding a higher % to the winning team, only say, 11 or 12%, or if you were to take away something from the other team, you'd get scores more like 31-20 instead of 27-26?

Does it also take random events into account? I know there's no real way of modelling random events (for example I'd call fumbles quite random), but would be interesting if it could. Giveaways are pretty indicative of losing a game, but not sure how to model that.

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6 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Nice. I wonder if adding a higher % to the winning team, only say, 11 or 12%, or if you were to take away something from the other team, you'd get scores more like 31-20 instead of 27-26?

Does it also take random events into account? I know there's no real way of modelling random events (for example I'd call fumbles quite random), but would be interesting if it could. Giveaways are pretty indicative of losing a game, but not sure how to model that.

It's not great at modeling "random" events but the ones, like fumbles or interceptions or whatnot, that have a relatively consistent probability (fumble % or INT %, etc.) are accounted for. 

 

A lot of scores this week were 1-3 point favorites because there were a lot of favorites between like 50% and 55%, but I am still working a bit on the scoreline function.

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Watching Hicks do so well in Chicago is grating. Possibly the biggest under-the-radar BB mistake was letting him go.

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1 hour ago, ChazStandard said:

Watching Hicks do so well in Chicago is grating. Possibly the biggest under-the-radar BB mistake was letting him go.

Iirc he was reportedly unhappy in New England and didn't want to stay anyway. But yeah, would've solved a lot of problems.

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3 hours ago, ChazStandard said:

Watching Hicks do so well in Chicago is grating. Possibly the biggest under-the-radar BB mistake was letting him go.

Hicks has been elite this year, top 3 interior DL

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Well LAC did us a huge favour there, it means we have a tie-break over Houston for the 2 seed, and a 1.5 game lead on PIT.  Obviously need to win out and hope KC lose one to get the 1 seed, but very much in the driving seat for the 2nd seed now.

In some ways LAC are the scariest AFC team to me, with Bosa back they have elite talents at spots on both sides of the ball.

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13 minutes ago, ChazStandard said:

Well LAC did us a huge favour there, it means we have a tie-break over Houston for the 2 seed, and a 1.5 game lead on PIT.  Obviously need to win out and hope KC lose one to get the 1 seed, but very much in the driving seat for the 2nd seed now.

In some ways LAC are the scariest AFC team to me, with Bosa back they have elite talents at spots on both sides of the ball.

what happens if Hou, Ne, LAC and KC all finish 13-3?

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