Iron_man Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Its week 13 of the NFL season. This week's TNF game has the saints going into Dallas. Dallas has a pretty good defense but will they be over run by the saints high powered offense? Probably. Who ya got and are their any other games you are gonna watch this sunday/monday? I think the saints take it. The chargers at the steelers looks to be an interesting game as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Not that anyone cares, but here are my model's Week 13 game projections: New Orleans (57%) 34-31 Dallas Baltimore (50.2%) 31-30 Atlanta Denver (60%) 33-29 Cincinnati Los Angeles Rams (74%) 39-28 Detroit Lions Green Bay (76%) 33-21 Arizona Miami (60%) 23-18 Buffalo Chicago (68%) 28-20 New York Giants Carolina (70%) 40-31 Tampa Bay Indianapolis (60%) 29-25 Jacksonville Houston (59%) 27-22 Cleveland New York Jets (53%) 27-26 Tennessee Kansas City (68%) 38-30 Oakland **New England Patriots (56%) 23-20 Minnesota Vikings Seattle (70%) 31-21 San Francisco Los Angeles Chargers (53%) 34-33 Pittsburgh Washington (50.48%) 28-27 Philadelphia Pretty high scoring, I'm still working on it a bit. Model's current record (since Week 7): 57-27 (67.85%) - 10-5 last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iron_man Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 So who had the cowboys shutting out the saints for the whole first half? Nobody? Okay lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iron_man Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 That was a good defensive fight there, but imagine if the Cowboys had a better QB. Heck I think Ty Rod would run that offense much better than Dak can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 On 29/11/2018 at 11:54 PM, AlNFL19 said: Not that anyone cares, but here are my model's Week 13 game projections: New Orleans (57%) 34-31 Dallas Baltimore (50.2%) 31-30 Atlanta Denver (60%) 33-29 Cincinnati Los Angeles Rams (74%) 39-28 Detroit Lions Green Bay (76%) 33-21 Arizona Miami (60%) 23-18 Buffalo Chicago (68%) 28-20 New York Giants Carolina (70%) 40-31 Tampa Bay Indianapolis (60%) 29-25 Jacksonville Houston (59%) 27-22 Cleveland New York Jets (53%) 27-26 Tennessee Kansas City (68%) 38-30 Oakland **New England Patriots (56%) 23-20 Minnesota Vikings Seattle (70%) 31-21 San Francisco Los Angeles Chargers (53%) 34-33 Pittsburgh Washington (50.48%) 28-27 Philadelphia Pretty high scoring, I'm still working on it a bit. Model's current record (since Week 7): 57-27 (67.85%) - 10-5 last week. What is this model? I like most of the results, but the scores are too close. Interesting, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I think PIT will easily handle LAC at home, with LAC missing Denzel and Gordon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iron_man Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said: I think PIT will easily handle LAC at home, with LAC missing Denzel and Gordon. Indeed. I think it will be an up hill battle for LAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 7 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said: What is this model? I like most of the results, but the scores are too close. Interesting, regardless. The model does tend to err on the side of caution. It also is a little handicapped in that there's no real way to adjust for injuries like those to Alex Smith and Melvin Gordon, or for this whole Hunt ordeal. Basically, what it does is compares a bunch of rate stats, like ANY/A, to every team over the last three years in order to assign a percent value over average. It then averages out these percentages, which are weighted by roughly how closely correlated they are to winning. To find the result of a game, you simply find the difference of the two team's total percentages and add half to either team's percent chance of winning. For example, Team A ranks at +10% and Team B is at +0%. On a neutral field (there is an adjustment for home-field advantage), Team A would win 55% of the time. This can then be roughly converted to a spread for the game, while scores are determined through the comparison of the two team's offenses and defenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 16 hours ago, AlNFL19 said: The model does tend to err on the side of caution. It also is a little handicapped in that there's no real way to adjust for injuries like those to Alex Smith and Melvin Gordon, or for this whole Hunt ordeal. Basically, what it does is compares a bunch of rate stats, like ANY/A, to every team over the last three years in order to assign a percent value over average. It then averages out these percentages, which are weighted by roughly how closely correlated they are to winning. To find the result of a game, you simply find the difference of the two team's total percentages and add half to either team's percent chance of winning. For example, Team A ranks at +10% and Team B is at +0%. On a neutral field (there is an adjustment for home-field advantage), Team A would win 55% of the time. This can then be roughly converted to a spread for the game, while scores are determined through the comparison of the two team's offenses and defenses. Nice. I wonder if adding a higher % to the winning team, only say, 11 or 12%, or if you were to take away something from the other team, you'd get scores more like 31-20 instead of 27-26? Does it also take random events into account? I know there's no real way of modelling random events (for example I'd call fumbles quite random), but would be interesting if it could. Giveaways are pretty indicative of losing a game, but not sure how to model that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlNFL19 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said: Nice. I wonder if adding a higher % to the winning team, only say, 11 or 12%, or if you were to take away something from the other team, you'd get scores more like 31-20 instead of 27-26? Does it also take random events into account? I know there's no real way of modelling random events (for example I'd call fumbles quite random), but would be interesting if it could. Giveaways are pretty indicative of losing a game, but not sure how to model that. It's not great at modeling "random" events but the ones, like fumbles or interceptions or whatnot, that have a relatively consistent probability (fumble % or INT %, etc.) are accounted for. A lot of scores this week were 1-3 point favorites because there were a lot of favorites between like 50% and 55%, but I am still working a bit on the scoreline function. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChazStandard Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Watching Hicks do so well in Chicago is grating. Possibly the biggest under-the-radar BB mistake was letting him go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LD696 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 hour ago, ChazStandard said: Watching Hicks do so well in Chicago is grating. Possibly the biggest under-the-radar BB mistake was letting him go. Iirc he was reportedly unhappy in New England and didn't want to stay anyway. But yeah, would've solved a lot of problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 hours ago, ChazStandard said: Watching Hicks do so well in Chicago is grating. Possibly the biggest under-the-radar BB mistake was letting him go. Hicks has been elite this year, top 3 interior DL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChazStandard Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Well LAC did us a huge favour there, it means we have a tie-break over Houston for the 2 seed, and a 1.5 game lead on PIT. Obviously need to win out and hope KC lose one to get the 1 seed, but very much in the driving seat for the 2nd seed now. In some ways LAC are the scariest AFC team to me, with Bosa back they have elite talents at spots on both sides of the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, ChazStandard said: Well LAC did us a huge favour there, it means we have a tie-break over Houston for the 2 seed, and a 1.5 game lead on PIT. Obviously need to win out and hope KC lose one to get the 1 seed, but very much in the driving seat for the 2nd seed now. In some ways LAC are the scariest AFC team to me, with Bosa back they have elite talents at spots on both sides of the ball. what happens if Hou, Ne, LAC and KC all finish 13-3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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