SP6488 Mock Draft (12/8)

[sp6488]

I've done very little research at this point, other than watching CFB this season, so this is not the most informed mock I've ever done by any stretch.  This is more about identifying potential target positions and value rather than the players themselves at this point (obviously there's a lot of movement to happen).  Looking forward to hearing what I did wrong

A couple of assumptions going into this mock:

• I think we ultimately resign Mosley, re-sign Suggs, re-sign one of Williams/Boyle (letting the other walk), let Z. Smith walk, let Montgonery & Allen walk, let J. Brown walk, let Urban walk. Griffin depends on what happens with Flacco.
• It gets a bit tricky as to what we do with Flacco/J. Smith/Carr.  I think we cut/trade some combination of them.  If Flacco comes back and looks like he did to start the year (taking us to at least one win in the playoffs), I wouldn't be shocked if he's back for 2019.  Similarly, Smith and Carr have both been playing well and may not NEED to be cut.  These guys represent additional potential firepower for this draft as they could all bring back something in trade (e.g. Jimmy's cap number is bad for us, but wouldn't impact another team in the same way; they could value getting a good starting corner). QB doesn't really affect this mock too much (other than potential picks), but I am going to gloss over the CBs, which would more likely affect targets.
• Tender all RFAs (Jean-Baptiste, Collins, and Peanut).
• Extend Stanley and Pierce.
• Relying on these projections of comp picks: https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

1. Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama - Making up for passing on James last year, De Costa makes Thompson his first round one pick as the Ravens GM.  Total package of size, speed and playmaking instincts. Could start day-one if we decide to part ways with Jefferson, but could also provide a long-term replacement to Weddle at FS when he hangs up the cleats.

3. Collin Johnson, WR, Texas - Massive target (6-5, 220lbs) with good speed for his size (4.55).  Not as dominant as he should be, but still productive.  A bit of a project, but good value in the third round.

4. Joe Jackson, EDGE, Miami - Edge defender who looks the part, but didn't always win his matchups in college.  Great length and will be a solid addition to an edge rotation losing Zadarius Smith.

4(comp). Derwin Gray, OT/G, Maryland - Played LT for the duration of his career at Maryland, but projects as a RT/G in the NFL.  Adds depth to the line and provides someone who can be an emergency LT given his collegiate experience.  Elite pedigree as a HS recruit. Will compete with Eluemenor and Lewis (and possibly Hurst) day one for a roster spot.

5. Joe Bachie, ILB, Michigan State - May not last this long, but would make a good addition to the LB corps.  Solid all-around player with adequate size and slightly above-average speed at the position.  Will add to the depth at the position and contribute on ST.

6(from Tenn). Ty Johnson, RB/KR, Maryland - Solidly-built (albeit slightly undersized) RB with nearly 8 YPC during his college career.  Perhaps more impressive, he never fumbled even once in his college career, despite being #4 all-time in all-purpose yards for MD. Possesses track speed and has experience moving all around the formation, which will aid him as a replacement to what Ty Montgomery has brought to the offense.  I've thought he would be best as a one-cut back as he is limited when he is expected to create something on his own.  Decent catching the ball.  Has had some injury issues and has never been a full-time back.  Even if he doesn't work as a RB, he can contribute as a returner and on ST.  I think he is better than this spot, but have not been seeing him show up in any mocks.

6. Youhanna Ghaifan, DT, Wyoming - Athletic small school tackle who flashed with 15.5 TFL last season.  Will be a bit of a project, but could inject some interior pass rush ability to the DLine rotation.  

7. Nick Fitzgerald, QB, Mississippi State - Physically-gifted developmental QB.  Likely practice squad candidate and camp arm.

7(comp). Lamar Jackson, CB, Nebraska - Not sure he'll even come out if he's projected this late (underclassman), but wanted to have some fun with the very last pick here.  Ultimately I wanted this pick to be a depth CB who will fight to make the roster, but likely end up on PS. 

With 9 likely picks, and the ability to add more by trading away (rather than cutting) positive assets with large cap impacts (Flacco, Smith, Carr), this is a draft I would like to see us use some later round capital to move around in the earlier rounds.  I think it would be a stretch for 9 picks to make this team.  I said that last year, though, and we saw what happened in that draft.

[diamondbull424]

Good stuff. My criticisms are just from a preference standpoint. I’m not a fan of Thompson. I think he’s very much overrated. I see a mid to late second round talent that is able to take advantage of great Alabama defensive pressure and poor QB throws to make plays. When I saw Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James, I knew they were absolutely special. They combined elite athleticism with elite instincts. Thompson has good instincts and above average athleticism. He’s not a great tackler, he does a lot of diving at the feet of ball carriers to trip them up, which is fine when you play for Bama and the players around you are all of top 3 round quality, but in the pros he’s going to be asked to be the last line of defense and he doesn’t have the physicality to be relied upon. He’s also not possessed of the kind of athleticism needed to be a cover one type of safety. So you’re talking about a guy whose neither a cover one nor an elite tackler. That’s not someone I think we should spend a first round pick on, probably not even our second round pick on. But that’s just my opinion. As you can probably tell from this rant, I’m not a fan of Thompson.😆

Beyond that I think everything else is quite solid. Collin Johnson adds a receiver that’s kind of a cross between what we have in Lasley and what we have in Jaleel Scott. I definitely think you’re right that Brown won’t be back. I think Crabtree, Snead, and Moore is a solid WR core. For all the flack Crabtree gets (much of it deserved), he does a good job getting himself separation on his routes.

Kind of wish you would’ve upgraded the center position in your mock. I watched Ghaifan’s tape and came away unimpressed by his athleticism. Though perhaps he just had a bad game from what I watched. But you could definitely do a lot worse than getting a developmental option like him for the squad.

Yeah, I don’t think Lamar Jackson will be coming out either, but I definitely thought the coincidence of a draft where we could potentially see Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson drafted in back to back years was too good to pass up.

[sp6488]

52 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

Good stuff. My criticisms are just from a preference standpoint. I’m not a fan of Thompson. I think he’s very much overrated. I see a mid to late second round talent that is able to take advantage of great Alabama defensive pressure and poor QB throws to make plays. When I saw Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James, I knew they were absolutely special. They combined elite athleticism with elite instincts. Thompson has good instincts and above average athleticism. He’s not a great tackler, he does a lot of diving at the feet of ball carriers to trip them up, which is fine when you play for Bama and the players around you are all of top 3 round quality, but in the pros he’s going to be asked to be the last line of defense and he doesn’t have the physicality to be relied upon. He’s also not possessed of the kind of athleticism needed to be a cover one type of safety. So you’re talking about a guy whose neither a cover one nor an elite tackler. That’s not someone I think we should spend a first round pick on, probably not even our second round pick on. But that’s just my opinion. As you can probably tell from this rant, I’m not a fan of Thompson.😆

Fair points.  I think we are going to be picking fairly far back in the draft by virtue of making the playoffs, so I doubt that a player of those guys' profiles will be available anyway.  It was a shock that James lasted as long as he did.  And I definitely get the vibe regarding where you stand on Thompson 

Beyond that I think everything else is quite solid. Collin Johnson adds a receiver that’s kind of a cross between what we have in Lasley and what we have in Jaleel Scott. I definitely think you’re right that Brown won’t be back. I think Crabtree, Snead, and Moore is a solid WR core. For all the flack Crabtree gets (much of it deserved), he does a good job getting himself separation on his routes.

Brown is a guy I really like, but (1) he doesn't seem to gel that well with Lamar's style and (2) he seems like an 80-20 guy where we can get 80% of the production at 20% (or less) of the salary he's going to command.  Ultimately, I think foregoing a deal him will help with re-signing Mosley, Stanley and Pierce (although Mosley and Stanley's 2019 cap numbers will actually be lower if we get LT deals in place due to cap mechanics).  I think Moore and Lasley should be given a shot to take on the Brown role in 2019.  IMO Collin Johnson would slot in at the X behind Crabtree, along with Scott potentially.  Then Snead would remain as the primary slot option.

Kind of wish you would’ve upgraded the center position in your mock.

Yea, that was something I thought about in the 3/4th rounds.  The board got away from us.  That's a position I would really like to see us target in the 2nd if we're able to add additional picks through trade (i.e. Flacco, Smith or Carr).

I watched Ghaifan’s tape and came away unimpressed by his athleticism. Though perhaps he just had a bad game from what I watched. But you could definitely do a lot worse than getting a developmental option like him for the squad.

Yea, I get that.  At the same time, there are no perfect prospects in the 6th.

Yeah, I don’t think Lamar Jackson will be coming out either, but I definitely thought the coincidence of a draft where we could potentially see Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson drafted in back to back years was too good to pass up.

Still not as good as us drafting two James Smiths back-to-back in 2011 IMO 

 

[Danand]

I am still firmly entrenched in the "we need a center" and we need him early. Every position can be found later in the draft, but I would rather want the best center than the 4th best dline. If we could then get a safety with that 2. round pick Flacco could net us, I would very much like that as I think we move on from Weddle either after the season or the season after that and Tony Jefferson could very well be substituted with one of our younger guys.

Wide receivers are exciting, but I don't think we need one. Especially with Lamar we have enough depth with a John Brown, Willie Snead, Crabtree, Chris Moore, Jordan Lasley, Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews.

If we get an impact player on OC and FS, I believe we only need additional pieces and role players to field a great team next year.

[RavensTillIDie]

Sooo what are the chances Devin Bush falls to our pick towards the end of the first?

[diamondbull424]

10 hours ago, RavensTillIDie said:

Sooo what are the chances Devin Bush falls to our pick towards the end of the first?

Very high chance that he would fall. He’s an undersized linebacker and so that’ll cause many teams to gamble on lesser talents that fit their prototypical ideals more, Devin White for example. I’ve always been highly impressed of Devin Bush, but unless he demolished the combine, I’m sure he could easily be had late 1st, heck I’ve seen some mock sites that have had him listed as a late day two ranking.