Worst Case Scenario at 12:

[Fl0nkerton]

15 minutes ago, JaireAlex said:

I agree with Dorsey. There are only 15 first round prospects in this draft. I think that number is fewer for GB first round prospects. Really bad year for a high pick, but I see a lot of second round picks.

 

Anyways, it will make a very interesting draft.

Trading back from 12 and only picking up a 3rd is poor compensation no matter how you slice it though.

[PossibleCabbage]

13 minutes ago, Fl0nkerton said:

Trading back from 12 and only picking up a 3rd is poor compensation no matter how you slice it though.

I mean, if we're projecting trades, moving from 12 to 15 is worth a 3rd, 12 to 17 is worth a 2, and 12 to 32 would probably net a 2 and a future first.

[Pilprin]

I'd move to 17 with a high #2

[Fl0nkerton]

5 minutes ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I mean, if we're projecting trades, moving from 12 to 15 is worth a 3rd, 12 to 17 is worth a 2, and 12 to 32 would probably net a 2 and a future first.

Ah, yeah I should have detailed the *trading from 12 to 32 and getting only a third* scenario was what I was referring to. 

[JaireAlex]

16 minutes ago, Fl0nkerton said:

Trading back from 12 and only picking up a 3rd is poor compensation no matter how you slice it though.

LIS far above, it was in jest.

 

My dream draft is to move back to 25-32 and pick up a 2&3. Given the weakness of the top that seems realistic. Also, we are at the end of a tier. We might get a few takers.

 

If the GB FO doesn't like Burns, Oliver, Wilkins, I think we move back. I have serious concerns about all three for such a high pick. And my concerns will not be answered by draft day.

 

That's realistic imo. My "worst case scenario" was just exaggeration to highlight my concern in the draft. I only started looking at the draft a week ago and have been trying to get a feel for it. This is a very weird class imo. No first round talent (that is no first round DL, OT, EDGE, CB), but a deep second and third round. It will be very unpredictable who goes where imo.

 

But we have never had such an empty roster in my memory.

[PossibleCabbage]

But I mean, the constraints of the hypothetical is that no one will give you more for #12 than the Miami Dolphins, so you pick #13th and all the same people (plus Haskins) are off the board.  So maybe you have the Dolphins 2nd and 3rd and a future first, but you still have to pick here.

[Fl0nkerton]

1 minute ago, JaireAlex said:

LIS far above, it was in jest.

 

My dream draft is to move back to 25-32 and pick up a 2&3. Given the weakness of the top that seems realistic. Also, we are at the end of a tier. We might get a few takers.

 

If the GB FO doesn't like Burns, Oliver, Wilkins, I think we move back. I have serious concerns about all three for such a high pick. And my concerns will not be answered by draft day.

 

That's realistic imo. My "worst case scenario" was just exaggeration to highlight my concern in the draft. I only started looking at the draft a week ago and have been trying to get a feel for it. This is a very weird class imo. No first round talent (that is no first round DL, OT, EDGE, CB), but a deep second and third round. It will be very unpredictable who goes where imo.

 

But we have never had such an empty roster in my memory.

Ah, my fault. I missed that part lol.

I agree the middle rounds are chock full of talent and grabbing some with the BPA strategy would be ideal.

[JaireAlex]

1 hour ago, PossibleCabbage said:

But I mean, the constraints of the hypothetical is that no one will give you more for #12 than the Miami Dolphins, so you pick #13th and all the same people (plus Haskins) are off the board.  So maybe you have the Dolphins 2nd and 3rd and a future first, but you still have to pick here.

The Dolphins won't give more than a 3. 

And my response to having to pick was: "no, because some team WILL move up for a measly three." It's the worst 1st round class I remember. Whatever we draft will be a major overpay.

I am not sold on the value of any pick here.

And I have a worse worst case actually.  A number of your picks are off my board.

 

I only have twelve round one Packers grades and that is stretching it a looooot. That's for the top 50.

 

It includes Hock, Fant, CGJ, Adderley who are not round one on a normal year Packers Board. I have questions/big concerns about Wilkins, Oliver, Burns, and Dillard. I am not sure they are as high on the Pack board as some fans think (esp Burns -- even more with Pettine than Capers). That makes four legit round one prospects. GB drafts LT, DL, CB, Edge in round one*. Of course QBs will push some down and I don't have the Pack taking one. 

Anyways I have 4 solid picks with round one grades and another 4 with questions. Another four talents that don't get a round one grade because of positional value (and depth at these positions in this draft). I would take Watt (with bad meds and all) at 12 over Burns, Wilkins, and Oliver (from what I limitedly know of Oliver -- he's a character red flag for me and fit concern. I prefer Saunders in two).

*One exception. When we drafted HaHa that was the only non premium position the Packers drafted in the TT era. (I know they were open to drafting blue Chip WR in round one.) We never had that opportunity. The only exception was HaHa and that was for several reasons:

 

1) He was the last in that tier

2) safeties were over valued a couple years and there was a huge shortage too

3) we were still in the PNCSD (Post Nick Collins Stress Disorder) era

4) Capers....

5) we let go Woodson and Hyde (see 4).

Also Hawk was a blue Chip and before the ilb position was downgraded. Bulaga was drafted as LT.

(Finally Ferrell is out of first round unless he tests. I have him round two.)

[CWood21]

On 3/21/2019 at 2:44 PM, JaireAlex said:

I'm just doing a realistic move down in this draft. With this worst case scenario, my picks are Omenihu, Wilkins, Bradbury, Lindstrom given the rest of the draft. I should also say Ferrell might be in the mix at 12. I just am not sure there. The last two are not Packer first round OL. I have only one GB first round OL in this draft.

 Not sure there is any historical evidence that a 3rd round pick gets a team to jump up ~20 spots in the first round.  The last time we saw a team make that kind of jump that didn't involve a QB was the Julio Jones trade back in 2011 when the Falcons gave up their FRP and SRP that year, their FRP the next year and a pair of 4ths.  The next closest comparable trade would be the Ryan Matthews trade when the Chargers dealt their SRP (mid 2nd round) and swap 4ths with the Dolphins.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, JaireAlex said:

I agree with Dorsey. There are only 15 first round prospects in this draft. I think that number is fewer for GB first round prospects. Really bad year for a high pick, but I see a lot of second round picks.

 

Anyways, it will make a very interesting draft.

Only 15?  Unless you're putting all of your prospects through the blender, there's more than 15 first round prospect.  But even more reason that the 12th pick should be used, not dealt away.  You're moving down from a guaranteed first round prospect to a possible 2nd round prospect.  Just looking through the class these are the guys that I figure to be relatively uniformly graded out as first round prospects (in no particular order): Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, DK Metcalf, TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, Jawann Taylor, Jonah Williams, Andre Dillard, Dalton Risner, Garrett Bradbury, Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Brian Burns, Clelin Ferrell, Montez Sweat, Devin White, Devin Bush, Greedy Williams, CGJ, and Nasir Adderly.  Naturally, they're not all going to be viewed as first round pick but I'd venture a guess that at least 90% of them will be given first round grades.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, JaireAlex said:

If the GB FO doesn't like Burns, Oliver, Wilkins, I think we move back. I have serious concerns about all three for such a high pick. And my concerns will not be answered by draft day.

I believe Gute has already said that he's comfortable with where he's picking, and while that might just be lipservice but you have to take his word for it.  Even if he isn't.  There figures to be some reasonable trade down options.  Maybe not no-brainers, but enough that makes him consider it.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

But I mean, the constraints of the hypothetical is that no one will give you more for #12 than the Miami Dolphins, so you pick #13th and all the same people (plus Haskins) are off the board.  So maybe you have the Dolphins 2nd and 3rd and a future first, but you still have to pick here.

You have to weight how far you're willing to move down.  Are you willing to move down into the late teens and potentially miss out on the top EDGE and Oliver?  I'm not sure that's something Gute is going to want to do, unless the value is tremendous.  And I'm not sure I see any obvious market deficiencies like we did last year with the Seahawks missing their SRP.

[JaireAlex]

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I believe Gute has already said that he's comfortable with where he's picking, and while that might just be lipservice but you have to take his word for it.  Even if he isn't.  There figures to be some reasonable trade down options.  Maybe not no-brainers, but enough that makes him consider it.

Yeah, I did hear about Gute being happy at 12. I assumed it was smoke, but if they stay, they have a pick they really like there.

 

I am confident, a few teams would want to move up in that tier. So, I guess it's a good spot actually.

[JaireAlex]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Only 15?  Unless you're putting all of your prospects through the blender, there's more than 15 first round prospect.  But even more reason that the 12th pick should be used, not dealt away.  You're moving down from a guaranteed first round prospect to a possible 2nd round prospect.  Just looking through the class these are the guys that I figure to be relatively uniformly graded out as first round prospects (in no particular order): Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, DK Metcalf, TJ Hockenson, Noah Fant, Jawann Taylor, Jonah Williams, Andre Dillard, Dalton Risner, Garrett Bradbury, Quinnen Williams, Ed Oliver, Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Brian Burns, Clelin Ferrell, Montez Sweat, Devin White, Devin Bush, Greedy Williams, CGJ, and Nasir Adderly.  Naturally, they're not all going to be viewed as first round pick but I'd venture a guess that at least 90% of them will be given first round grades.

I mean GB first round picks. See above. We draft only premier positions in round one. That is good draft philosophy. Other teams can overdraft but that just brings us players  like Clark. Except TE, I don't see blue Chip in anyone but maybe guard this year. And I don't have Jonah Williams or Risner as GB prospects.

 

But Like you said, GB seems content. They must have a pick they value at 12. I'm fine if they like Oliver or Dillard there (not so much Floyd 2.0).

[squire12]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

I believe Gute has already said that he's comfortable with where he's picking, and while that might just be lipservice but you have to take his word for it.  Even if he isn't.  There figures to be some reasonable trade down options.  Maybe not no-brainers, but enough that makes him consider it.

So are you taking his word for it, or is it lip service?  You seem to be wanting to play both sides of that coin here.