The Run Game doesnt matter

[Matts4313]

Just now, DaBoys said:

Thread title = dumb

The thread title was trollbait.

I actually put in the main one "named the title this way to decipher who would get mad and who was smart enough to understand the OP".

Which did you end up being? 3 months later and you still dont understand the thread. 

[DaBoys]

3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

The thread title was trollbait.

I actually put in the main one "named the title this way to decipher who would get mad and who was smart enough to understand the OP".

Which did you end up being? 3 months later and you still dont understand the thread. 

But....

No one ever questioned that QBs were more important than RBs. If they weren't more important then we wouldn't have been 3-5 last year with Zeke killing it. We ALL realize the importance of QBs, if we didn't we wouldn't ever get upset at Dak, because it wouldn't matter.

 

But we also all understand the importance of a run game.

 

Nobody ever tried to say QBs don't matter. This thread needs to fall off the 1st page.

Edited September 14, 2019 by DaBoys

[Matts4313]

3 minutes ago, DaBoys said:

But....

No one ever questioned that QBs were more important than RBs. If they weren't more important then we wouldn't have been 3-5 last year with Zeke killing it. We ALL realize the importance of QBs, if we didn't we wouldn't ever get upset at Dak, because it wouldn't matter.

 

But we also all understand the importance of a run game.

 

Nobody ever tried to say QBs don't matter. This thread needs to fall off the 1st page.

This still isnt the crux of the argument. 

[Matts4313]

Here, I will try to explain the thread in silly @DaBoys anecdotal pot-shots.

In the MINNY v ATL game:

Kirk: 11.8 AY/A (Adjust yards/attempt)

Cook: 111 yard rushing attempts

V

Ryan: 5.52 AY/A

Freeman: 19 yards

Vikings Win 28-12

Dallas v NYG:

Eli: 7.4 ay/a

Barkely: 120 yards

V

Dak: 15.2 ay/a

Zeke: 56 yards

Cowboys win 35-17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now Daboys, can you see how **RUSHING PRODUCTION** is non-correlated to winning; yet the team that has the more efficient QB wins the vast majority of the time?

 

Do you understand correlation now? You can run the ball extremely well and win (Vikings). You can run the ball extremely well and lose (Giants). Because rushing performance is 50/50 (low correlation) to winning.

But the team that passes more efficiently than the other team almost **always** wins. Because passing efficiency is highly correlated to winning.

 

---------------------------------------------------------

 

The Cowboys strategy for the past 5 years has been "Running a lot will make our QB more efficient" 

Other teams have the strategy "we make our QB more efficient and run situationally to supplement"

 

They are both strategies that are viable. But the key is **NOT** the running game. Its the efficient QB part. 

 

PS: This is not an opinion. This is 25 years of NFL analytics. So you may think differently, but you are wrong. Just like a flat-earther. 

Edited September 14, 2019 by Matts4313

[Matts4313]

 

From an NFL coach:

"After looking at all the research and talking with experts in the field, it seems clear the hard-line philosophy of the importance of establishing the run is outdated and disproven."

[The_Slamman]

So we know know that over the history of the nfl, the team that wins the run battle wins over 70% of the time.  Of the 15 teams to win week 1, 11 of the 15 won the rush battle.  That’s a cool 80%.  But yeah, run game doesn’t matter.

[resilient part 2]

6 hours ago, DaBoys said:

Oh but it's magic when Matts and I team up in a rival forum.

Is that Even theoretically psychologically , .. genetically, philosophically, and whatever other Cali possible

[The_Slamman]

In week 2, 12 or the 16 teams who won the game won the run battle during the game. So, in week 2, the team that outrushed the other team won 75% of the time.

 

week 1:  80%

week 2:  75%

[resilient part 2]

44 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

In week 2, 12 or the 16 teams who won the game won the run battle during the game. So, in week 2, the team that outrushed the other team won 75% of the time.

 

week 1:  80%

week 2:  75%

sometimes this can be the most misleading and inaccurate stat. If a team gets an early lead, especially a big one, they will tend to try to run out the clock vs the losing teams abandoning the run all together. 

[The_Slamman]

3 hours ago, resilient part 2 said:

sometimes this can be the most misleading and inaccurate stat. If a team gets an early lead, especially a big one, they will tend to try to run out the clock vs the losing teams abandoning the run all together. 

So, what you are really saying is that the run game does matter...teams that have the ability to run out the clock tend to win.  Keep in mind that in the nfl most games are within a touchdown.  The margin of victory/defeat is narrow.  That’s why over the entire history of the nfl, winning the rushing battle gives the team a 75% chance of winning.

[Matts4313]

2 hours ago, The_Slamman said:

So, what you are really saying is that the run game does matter...teams that have the ability to run out the clock tend to win.  Keep in mind that in the nfl most games are within a touchdown.  The margin of victory/defeat is narrow.  That’s why over the entire history of the nfl, winning the rushing battle gives the team a 75% chance of winning.

This is literally in the OP

[Matts4313]

On 6/7/2019 at 12:41 PM, Matts4313 said:

I want to separate this from the Dak thread. Ive gotten this stigma that I hate Zeke because I think he is a jerk. I dont hate Zeke. In fact, as a player, he is probably the second best position excluded (behind Martin) on our whole team. And this past year, he helped make himself much more valuable. Not because his rushing. That doesnt matter. Its because he grew a ton in the pass game. The only thing that matters. Here are some facts that are irrefutable the past 25 years (or 5, 10, 15 - any time frame).

Point 1: The team that has a better ANY/A (adjusted net yards per an attempt => an advanced passing stat) in any given game wins the vast majority of the time. 

• Your goal should be to have an efficient passing game (High completion, low sacks and turn overs). 
• Bulk passing does not matter.
• Defensively you need to make the other team inefficient. 

Point 2: Despite "common knowledge" there is no evidence that running the ball helps passing

• Running efficiently (YPC) doent make you win more or pass better
• Bulk running (YPG) doesnt make you win more or pass better
• Attempts doesnt make you win more or pass better.
• Running the ball does not set up Play Action Passing. 

Point 3: That doesnt mean that running or running backs arent useful.

• Running short yardage is useful
• RBs who help in the pass game are useful

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Supporting facts for the above statements:

 

Maybe it wasnt, but point 3 was to single out situational running. That is important. 

[The_Slamman]

13 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Maybe it wasnt, but point 3 was to single out situational running. That is important. 

Actually, your point 2 is just dead wrong.  YPG does help you win more.  75% of the time when you outrush the other team, you will win.  I was the one pointed this out in the thread and I’m just following through now to show that it still rings true.  

[Matts4313]

6 minutes ago, The_Slamman said:

Actually, your point 2 is just dead wrong.  YPG does help you win more.  75% of the time when you outrush the other team, you will win.  I was the one pointed this out in the thread and I’m just following through now to show that it still rings true.  

Nope 

https://thepowerrank.com/2018/09/24/the-surprising-truth-about-passing-and-rushing-in-the-nfl/

[DaBoys]

9 hours ago, resilient part 2 said:

sometimes this can be the most misleading and inaccurate stat. If a team gets an early lead, especially a big one, they will tend to try to run out the clock vs the losing teams abandoning the run all together. 

So you think 75-80% of games are blowouts? What NFL do you watch?