Who to draft

[sammymvpknight]

I would love to hear your opinion. I pick 6th and 12th in a keeper league (0.5 PPR). My keepers are Kamara, JSS, Conner, and Moore. 

Who should I take at my 6th pick amongst: Gurley, Ertz, Beckham, or D Williams

Who should I take at my 12th pick amongst: Jacobs, Watson, A Jones, Fournette, Gordon, Evans, or A Brown

id love to see the players ranked

[Runaway Jim]

I think OBJ is the easy choice at 6.  12 is a harder choice, but would probably go with Jacobs.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

6 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

I would love to hear your opinion. I pick 6th and 12th in a keeper league (0.5 PPR). My keepers are Kamara, JSS, Conner, and Moore. 

Who should I take at my 6th pick amongst: Gurley, Ertz, Beckham, or D Williams

Who should I take at my 12th pick amongst: Jacobs, Watson, A Jones, Fournette, Gordon, Evans, or A Brown

id love to see the players ranked

I feel dumb for not realizing JSS is Juju haha

Of those 4 I'd take Beckham, BUT I like Mike Evans so much I'd consider him at 6, like him MUCH more than any option you had at 12 and he would easily be my guy there. You do have 2 1st round RBs so you don't need to reach on a RB like Jacobs

[Forge]

It appears that I'm the oddball in this scenario. I'm probably going Ertz  and then Evans. The anticipated net gain on Ertz / Kittle / Kelce over the tight ends after is considerable and hard to ignore. Beckham at 6 is a non starter for me if I have Evans (and to a lesser extent, Brown) available at 12. There's just not a big enough difference there, and I wouldnt' be completely shocked if both of those guys outscored OBJ either. 

Quarterback is position that gets tricky by league, so I'm going to omit Watson for that reason, though depending on your league set up, that could be a viable option, though I highly doubt it. 

[Soggust]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

It appears that I'm the oddball in this scenario. I'm probably going Ertz  and then Evans. The anticipated net gain on Ertz / Kittle / Kelce over the tight ends after is considerable and hard to ignore. Beckham at 6 is a non starter for me if I have Evans (and to a lesser extent, Brown) available at 12. There's just not a big enough difference there, and I wouldnt' be completely shocked if both of those guys outscored Brown either. 

Quarterback is position that gets tricky by league, so I'm going to omit Watson for that reason, though depending on your league set up, that could be a viable option, though I highly doubt it. 

The problem with Ertz is that it is extremely unlikely he repeats last year. The thought is that with the addition of Miles Sanders, Desean Jackson, Whiteside, and the development of Goedart - it's likely he loses some targets this year. Granted, he probably won't need to break the record to be productive, but the reality is that even in his record breaking year, he wasn't as big of an edge as you might think. I guess what I'm saying is that there isn't much difference between getting Mike Evans (15.1 PPG - ADP 22)  and O.J. Howard (10.4 PPG ADP 56) vs Zach Ertz (13.9 PPG ADP 27) and Tyler Boyd (13.1 PPG ADP 54). This is just finding people at similiar ADPs. Obviously 1.5 PPG isn't negligible, but remember we are basing this on a career year for Ertz.

Look at his career stats: 

Fantastic, reliable production, a great player and you really can't go too wrong taking him. But I think it's reasonable to temper expectations going into next year considering how much of an outlier last year was. 

 

On 8/28/2019 at 11:06 AM, sammymvpknight said:

I would love to hear your opinion. I pick 6th and 12th in a keeper league (0.5 PPR). My keepers are Kamara, JSS, Conner, and Moore. 

Who should I take at my 6th pick amongst: Gurley, Ertz, Beckham, or D Williams

Who should I take at my 12th pick amongst: Jacobs, Watson, A Jones, Fournette, Gordon, Evans, or A Brown

id love to see the players ranked

 

6th Pick:

1 - Beckham : I'm not a big Beckham fan, but having two legit WR1s feels better and more well-rounded than stacking RB/FLX imo. 
2a - Gurley : You have the RBs to gamble on Gurley. This is an interesting option considering the upside.
2b - Ertz : Like Beckham, I feel like this rounds out your roster nicely. I just feel like #6 is a bit high, even in a keeper league. 
4 - Williams : Williams feels like fools gold to me this year and I'm a Chiefs fan. If you do go this route, make sure to protect yourself by scooping Thompson later on.

12th Pick:

1a - Evans : Fantastic production and the Bucs should be throwing the ball a lot this year. I love Mike Evans here and, again, a WR will balance your team a bit. Can't go wrong with either him or Brown here.
1b - Brown : Can't argue with the production. He might be unstable, but he's an unstable genius. At the end of the day I want as many shares as I can of Brown as possible at his current ADP, especially playing the Chiefs secondary twice a year. 
3 - A Jones : 5.5 YPC two years in a row. I'm high on Jones this year, especially in a Lefleur system. I almost went 3a 3b with him and Jacobs as there is some workload risk here worst-case, but I hate the Raiders so Jacobs got bumped.
4 - Jacobs : Kind of an unknown. Obviously RB is an easy transition and he should be a good player, but I personally value proven production over potential unless it's a Saquon / Zeke situation.
5 - Watson : Great player, only hurt by positional value and the fact that Houston's offensive line issues scare me. 12 feels high for him, even in a keeper league.
6 - Gordon : Way too much risk. I want no piece of him. Looking more and more likely he will miss the majority of the season.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Soggust

[Forge]

3 minutes ago, Soggust said:

The problem with Ertz is that it is extremely unlikely he repeats last year. The thought is that with the addition of Miles Sanders, Desean Jackson, Whiteside, and the development of Goedart - it's likely he loses some targets this year. Granted, he probably won't need to break the record to be productive, but the reality is that even in his record breaking year, he wasn't as big of an edge as you might think. I guess what I'm saying is that there isn't much difference between getting Mike Evans (15.1 PPG - ADP 22)  and O.J. Howard (10.4 PPG ADP 56) vs Zach Ertz (13.9 PPG ADP 27) and Tyler Boyd (13.1 PPG ADP 54). This is just finding people at similiar ADPs. Obviously 1.5 PPG isn't negligible, but remember we are basing this on a career year for Ertz.

 

Don't know that it's extremely unlikely, but there should be some backslide for sure (I expect the same thing from Kittle, which is why I'm not going to go that route in the first three rounds as well). My biggest concern with the stats you posted isn't so much the surge in the production- it's mostly the catch rate. I think that's a statistic that would be likely to regress regardless, so even if he picks up similar opportunity with regards to target share, you should see a slight downtick. And normally, I do agree. I don't like drafting tight ends this high regardless (kelce is a bit of an exception this season given the consistency and the high octane nature of that offense). I have a ton of shares of Howard and Henry this year. Those are my guys. Personally, I just view Ertz as the number one receiver on the team, and that's what makes me think that the production will still be there. Will he get 116 / 1200 (not going to mention touchdowns because those are so volatile)? I don't know about that. But could he still nab 100 / 1050? I think that is likely. Now, if he scores only 6 touchdowns, that becomes an issue. If he scores 10, the difference in receptions / yards really doesn't even matter, and if he has the same, then he's probably in line with acceptable variances with all other players. 

I actually agree with a lot of what you are saying in your post though - I think that Ertz largely just gives you a great, well rounded roster, and like you, I don't "love" OBJ. Gurley is the tricky one there (he would be the no brainer based on production, but it's really hard to gauge that risk. You can make the case for almost any of them except Williams (I think he'll be fine, but I just don't know how you'd justify him on speculation over the other players) and Watson (as I mentioned in my post, this is really tricky because a lot depends on structure). We are in lock step on the second pick though - I think it's Evans without question. 

 

[Soggust]

12 minutes ago, Forge said:

Don't know that it's extremely unlikely, but there should be some backslide for sure (I expect the same thing from Kittle, which is why I'm not going to go that route in the first three rounds as well). My biggest concern with the stats you posted isn't so much the surge in the production- it's mostly the catch rate. I think that's a statistic that would be likely to regress regardless, so even if he picks up similar opportunity with regards to target share, you should see a slight downtick. And normally, I do agree. I don't like drafting tight ends this high regardless (kelce is a bit of an exception this season given the consistency and the high octane nature of that offense). I have a ton of shares of Howard and Henry this year. Those are my guys. Personally, I just view Ertz as the number one receiver on the team, and that's what makes me think that the production will still be there. Will he get 116 / 1200 (not going to mention touchdowns because those are so volatile)? I don't know about that. But could he still nab 100 / 1050? I think that is likely. Now, if he scores only 6 touchdowns, that becomes an issue. If he scores 10, the difference in receptions / yards really doesn't even matter, and if he has the same, then he's probably in line with acceptable variances with all other players. 

I actually agree with a lot of what you are saying in your post though - I think that Ertz largely just gives you a great, well rounded roster, and like you, I don't "love" OBJ. Gurley is the tricky one there (he would be the no brainer based on production, but it's really hard to gauge that risk. You can make the case for almost any of them except Williams (I think he'll be fine, but I just don't know how you'd justify him on speculation over the other players) and Watson (as I mentioned in my post, this is really tricky because a lot depends on structure). We are in lock step on the second pick though - I think it's Evans without question. 

 

Id truly be the most sold on Evans / OBJ / AB / Gurley at 6 and then Ertz at 12, which seems reasonable given the players available at 12. 

[Forge]

Just now, Soggust said:

Id truly be the most sold on Evans / OBJ / AB / Gurley at 6 and then Ertz at 12, which seems reasonable given the players available at 12. 

I will admit that it's curious that Evans would be available at 12 but not Ertz. 

[BillSabre]

16 hours ago, Forge said:

It appears that I'm the oddball in this scenario. I'm probably going Ertz  and then Evans. The anticipated net gain on Ertz / Kittle / Kelce over the tight ends after is considerable and hard to ignore. Beckham at 6 is a non starter for me if I have Evans (and to a lesser extent, Brown) available at 12. There's just not a big enough difference there, and I wouldnt' be completely shocked if both of those guys outscored OBJ either. 

Quarterback is position that gets tricky by league, so I'm going to omit Watson for that reason, though depending on your league set up, that could be a viable option, though I highly doubt it. 

Given his keepers, this was my thought as well.  Ertz, then Evans.  I would not risk Ertz falling if you’re league has 4 keepers each.  I can’t believe he’s even available with that many keepers.  How many teams are in this league? 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

20 hours ago, Forge said:

I will admit that it's curious that Evans would be available at 12 but not Ertz. 

Agreed. Love me some Evans