sammymvpknight Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 (edited) That math you did in high school wasn't a complete waste time. Now is the time that it will all be worth it. Who am I? I'm a fantasy footballer with a strong background in sports injury and statistics. It has given me an unique perspective on fantasy football and has allowed me to get quite good over my almost 20 years of playing. My combined win percentage is 0.650 in spite of playing five competitive leagues yearly, and I have missed the playoff once in the past five seasons. I am consistently competitive largely based on my understanding of player risk, statistics, and to a lesser extent being a decent scout of talent. Why do players get drafted where they are selected? It's not magic, but it is incredibly complex. You have to understand the different forces that come into play. Let's simply break it down this way. Why is Barkley going to be draft #1 overall in just about every fantasy league this year? Among the biggest reasons included: his previous point output, his prospective point output, his average draft position (ADP), his ranking on a number of "expert opinion polls", and his ranking on a number of popular league drafting websites. There are a number of factors, but among the biggest reason for his ADP is this assumed consensus opinion or groupthink. But if I had everyone actually project statistics for each player, I'd have a high suspicion that Barkley wouldn't be drafted #1 overall in 99% of drafts. Recognizing that groupthink is the biggest driving force for a player's average draft position is the first step to recognizing how to exploit this common fantasy football error of strategy. Knowing how your opinion differs from the consensus is one of the many ways to build a successful big board when comparing players of the same position. I've now gone about three paragraphs without mentioning value based drafting...what a rip off. Well it here comes. Value based drafting wouldn't matter if your league only allowed running backs. Value based drafting is a strategy that is used to compare players of different positions. And considering that just about all leagues use multiple positions it is a very important concept to recognize and understand. Again, it is important to understand the factors that go into where players of certain positions are drafted. Positions are typically weighted one of two ways: subjectively or objectively. When I ask someone, "why should I draft a RB in the first round." The most common answers I get are something along the lines of "because they score the most points" or "because that is where they are drafted". But they don't score the most points. QB's score the most point. Shoot...many kickers score more points than running backs, but they are relegated to last round of your draft. Yes, RB's are drafted early but it is important to understand why they are drafted early to ensure that you aren't making a mistake simply by following the crowd. The answer to why RB's get drafted early is INCREDIBLY complex. The biggest reason is historical trends, so in truth, the "because that is where they are drafted" isn't completely off based. But it is an incomplete answer. The reason why RB's get drafted early is that they have a very high cost over a replacement in a later round. What does that mean? It means that if you project points for first round running backs and compare them to 7th round running backs, there will very likely be a bigger drop off when compared to the QB position. That is why Barkley is going before Mahomes, even though Mahomes may put up 100 more points than Barkley over the course of the season. But recognize that is not universally true, and I'll get to an example in a little bit. There are a number of different strategies that "experts" use to compare players of different positions, but all will have some sort of adjustment factor to account for scarcity and league trends. When you look at Yahoo's rankings, you will see that their top 10 for a 0.5 PPR league is: Barkley, Kamara, McCaffrey, Chubb, Elliott, Hopkins, Johnson, Adams, Conner, and Jones. But their point projections don't create the same order, largely because they have a statistical calculation that accounts for positional difference. Some will use "tiers" and decide subjectively where players compare of different positions. Some use very complicated statistical analysis and rudimentary calculations to adjust for different positions. Good luck finding a user-friendly equation to put into your excel spreadsheet. If someone has a good formula, they aren't sharing it with you. They are using it to take your money. I have my own strategy that works very well for me. It makes sense to me, I understand it's limitations, and I have done my best to modify and validate it over the years. Likewise, I'm not sharing my strategy, but I will say that it includes detailed players projections, mildly-to-moderate complex statistics, and each league's historical trends. And there is noticeable variability between leagues, based on both drafting trends and league settings, so one size does not fit all. I will leave by saying that in one of my PPR leagues with pretty typical settings (though it's tough to comment of the drafting pattern in comparison to the rest), I have Travis Kelce as my #4 overall pick and DeAndre Hopkins as my #5 overall pick. Why? Because I think that both players are that much better than their peers, and that is what my data tells me. So when someone takes Kelce at #9 overall, I wouldn't laugh at him or her...they very likely know what they are doing. Edited August 29, 2019 by sammymvpknight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJM217 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 Great read. Look forward to more. Also don’t be afraid to dig deep into the number. I love some good statistics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KellChippy Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 In one of my leagues, we have idps with some interesting scoring. Long story short, the most valuable player ever was JJ Watt in his second and fourth years. Someone took him in the third round before his fourth season, and everyone ripped into him. I chimed I’m on the surface, but internally, was filled with dread and admiration. He was worth first overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted August 31, 2019 Share Posted August 31, 2019 3 hours ago, TJM217 said: Great read. Look forward to more. Also don’t be afraid to dig deep into the number. I love some good statistics He wont do it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted September 2, 2019 Share Posted September 2, 2019 Zagging while others are zigging is an age old strategy. You havent actually given us anything though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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