Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I'm also eyeing teasing the Colts, Lions, and Dolphins in another one. 

@N4L So I mentioned these. Would currently be Colts -2, Lions +14, and Dolphins +10.5. 

Beyond the ones you mentioned, I'm also eyeing U59 in the Cardinals/Cowboys game. The Cardinals offense looks broken without Nuk and 59 is A LOT of points to have to overcome. My only concern here is that the Cardinals defense looks similarly broken, and the Cowboys can cook. 

Also considering Patriots despite the huge line. The Jaguars are just overmatched in every area and have now lost their best offensive player. This should be a statement game for the Patriots after two tough losses. 

 

EDIT: In light of the Wentz news, I'll obviously wait to see how hard the line is adjusted with Sam Ehlinger expected to start for Indy. Tbh, I'll probably still look to Tease the Colts since they're the better coached team, better defensive team, and are far less mistaken prone on offense. 

Edited December 28, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

12 hours ago, N4L said:

Atlanta's defense is going to get torched by diggs and Allen. Buffalo will score at will for chunks of the game. Atlanta is a very bad football team that gets blown out by good teams. I am not sure I want to lay 14.5 right now, but I am trying to figure out how ATL will score in this game and I can't seem to figure it out. So I think I will use the bills -8 (buying 7.5 points) as a teaser leg, tease the over of the game down to 38 (buying 6 points) and put them on different teasers with my other teaser legs mixed and matched. I feel very confident that either one of two things will happen, either the bills cover the 8 handily, or the falcons will score enough to push the over 38. It's very possible both happens. Unlikely that the bills lose a low scoring game imo considering the falcons defense has some major holes and the bills are the bills. I am taking the over 30 bills team total as well 

I was trying to recall why I initially loved this play and then marked it as "stay away", and I just remembered. Always have to look ahead on the forecast this time of year with any game outside in the northern half of the country. Buffalo is expecting sub 20 degree temperatures with winds reaching 20mph. The Falcons offense might be completely neutered, so I don't hate the Bills -8 play, but I would be wary of any Overs in that contest. 

[SmittyBacall]

Last night might have been one of the worst starting QB performances I’ve seen in recent memory. Tough to watch.

Needed Kamara over 24.5 receiving yards, and Miami just sat on the checkdown all night. Not to mention Kamara looked completely checked out by the second half. Tough break.

[SaveOurSonics]

3 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Last night might have been one of the worst starting QB performances I’ve seen in recent memory. Tough to watch.

Needed Kamara over 24.5 receiving yards, and Miami just sat on the checkdown all night. Not to mention Kamara looked completely checked out by the second half. Tough break.

It was truthfully one of the worst I've ever seen. He was failing to make the easiest of reads and didn't resemble someone who was anywhere near this level of competition. It didn't help that his OLine put in one of the worst collective performances I've seen in some time as well. The only credit I can give Book is for his toughness. 

It had to be frustrating for Kamara to see the game plan + Mark Ingram was averaging 5 YPC at halftime but the Saints just refused to get him on the field. I was shocked that Payton wasn't giving Book Kamara as a passing option and Ingram as the between the tackles runner. Book had as many pass attempts as Kamara had touches in the 1H. That's unacceptable. 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

@N4L So I mentioned these. Would currently be Colts -2, Lions +14, and Dolphins +10.5. 

Beyond the ones you mentioned, I'm also eyeing U59 in the Cardinals/Cowboys game. The Cardinals offense looks broken without Nuk and 59 is A LOT of points to have to overcome. My only concern here is that the Cardinals defense looks similarly broken, and the Cowboys can cook. 

Also considering Patriots despite the huge line. The Jaguars are just overmatched in every area and have now lost their best offensive player. This should be a statement game for the Patriots after two tough losses. 

 

EDIT: In light of the Wentz news, I'll obviously wait to see how hard the line is adjusted with Sam Ehlinger expected to start for Indy. Tbh, I'll probably still look to Tease the Colts since they're the better coached team, better defensive team, and are far less mistaken prone on offense. 

That -2 line assumes Wentz is out.  It was -8.5 before.  I’d take that now tbh.  Waiting for book to reopen this lol. 

[SaveOurSonics]

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

That -2 line assumes Wentz is out.  It was -8.5 before.  I’d take that now tbh.  Waiting for book to reopen this lol. 

Sorry, all of those lines were through the lens of a 7-point Teaser (Colts actually would've been -1 at the time of that post). You'll notice Lions and Dolphins spreads are also quite a bit off haha. 

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Sorry, all of those lines were through the lens of a 7-point Teaser (Colts actually would've been -1 at the time of that post). You'll notice Lions and Dolphins spreads are also quite a bit off haha. 

Right caught that after lol.  The line is now -6.5.  Reasonable to include for sure.  

[Broncofan]

FWIW I see 4 dogs with a legit chance at winning barring COVID issues - CIN, CLE, DET & I guess NYG (but not touching that game).   DEN in theory but on principle alone I can’t back.  But those all make excellent ATS picks too.    More on the matchups later.  

Edited December 28, 2021 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

4 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

It was truthfully one of the worst I've ever seen. He was failing to make the easiest of reads and didn't resemble someone who was anywhere near this level of competition. It didn't help that his OLine put in one of the worst collective performances I've seen in some time as well. The only credit I can give Book is for his toughness. 

It was brutal. I also recall him running out of bounds for a 6 yard loss instead of throwing the ball away on a 2nd down, and then throwing the ball away on 4th down late in the 4th.

Lesson learned. Rookie, third-string QBs in their first start are not to be trusted.

[SmittyBacall]

On 12/27/2021 at 4:57 PM, SmittyBacall said:

If Travis Kelce’s receiving line comes in around 75, I will be all over it.

Whether it’s Kittle or Andrews, the Bengals have been terrorized by TE’s. Our corners and safety play has been pretty good, but there is so much to expose over the middle in Anarumo’s scheme. Kelce will be unstoppable.

Germaine Pratt, while not moving the needle in coverage, is out Sunday. If this isn’t a position group for Andy Reid to target, I don’t know what is. 

I would imagine we see Vonn Bell fill a lot of those LB snaps, and see a lot of Kelce, which just isn’t going to work. 

Edited December 29, 2021 by SmittyBacall

[Broncofan]

DEN is about to get a wave of Covid's coming in - and with new protocol, still leaves them out until Monday.  Meanwhile, LAC is getting all their key players they missed last week, PLUS all the players who tested postive on Monday/Tuesday AM, are ok to play Sunday if they don't have symptoms (no tests required).

So take DEN +6 off the board (I think it was @SmittyBacall who asked, but this applies to anyone), and void any DEN ML plays (which I wouldn't have done).  I'm locking in LAC -6 6U right now, and I expect at WORST, I can void the bet as I expect the line is only going to go up.   If the line goes crazy like MIA-NO, I might even get a nice offer to cash out at profit, which I'd certainly almost do, given it's not a +money bet lol.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

12 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

DEN is about to get a wave of Covid's coming in - and with new protocol, still leaves them out until Monday.  Meanwhile, LAC is getting all their key players they missed last week, PLUS all the players who tested postive on Monday/Tuesday AM, are ok to play Sunday if they don't have symptoms (no tests required).

So take DEN +6 off the board (I think it was @SmittyBacall who asked, but this applies to anyone), and void any DEN ML plays (which I wouldn't have done).  I'm locking in LAC -6 4U right now, and I expect at WORST, I can void the bet as I expect the line is only going to go up.

Who do you anticipate being out?

[Broncofan]

9 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Who do you anticipate being out?

We've just lost RT Calvin Anderson, WR Tim Patrick, S Caden Sterns (who's vital in our nickel/dime packages) and a backup.    Those 3 are big losses, ESPECIALLY Anderson (Massie has been abused at RT - this was week Anderson might have returned).   CB Ronald Darby is also in concussion protocol, and this isn't his first...so yeah, bad news for DEN backers.

 The issue is if they tested positive - more are coming.   We've not had the big wave.   Colorado is experiencing a community surge like most cities in US, so this all fits for a high-risk scenario - and now no one who tests positive gets cleared, vs a team that's just had their wave, so everyone except Herbert & Allen are all safe.

 

 

Even if you're still on DEN +6.5 (already moved lol) - I think you'd wait, because if a massive Covid spike happens, then we could see a 4-5 pt shift - and given LAC had their wave, it's only happening 1 way.    It's why I took LAC -6 6U - I'm not counting on actually playing 6U, I'm hoping my book will offer a cash out at 1.25x - the LV-CLE offer was literally a 30-40 percent offer, same with MIA-NO.    I'll cash 4U for guaranteed profit, and play 2U -6.   If your book doesn't allow cashouts/voids, then just wait.

Even if you still like DEN, you can get a much better line if you wait IMO.

Edited December 29, 2021 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

On 12/28/2021 at 2:43 AM, N4L said:

over 46 LAR/BAL - Ravens secondary is so bad right now and kupp is gonna absolutely wreck them. Obj and van Jefferson round out a good trio. I'm banking on Lamar or Huntley coming back a bit with this one but I love the way the Rams will force Baltimore to push the pace of this game.

Tough to imagine Lamar starting with this coming out today:

https://twitter.com/jamisonhensley/status/1476262609733267463?s=20

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Tough to imagine Lamar starting with this coming out today:

https://twitter.com/jamisonhensley/status/1476262609733267463?s=20

I'll be honest. As far as Teasing the Over to 39 or 40 or whatever, I don't care who's starting at QB for the Ravens between their 3 options. I see the Rams putting up 27+ on that defense, which means we only need 13+ from the Ravens offense. I think Huntley, in particular, is more than capable of achieving that. 

EDIT: My only major concern is that the east coast is forecasted to get hit with some major winds this weekend. Baltimore is of course amongst that, with forecasted winds as high as 20mph. That's the type of variable that can really neuter the offensive game plan. 

Edited December 29, 2021 by SaveOurSonics