Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

The Browns / Bills game is one to monitor. Apparently Buffalo is bracing for 3-6 feet of snow and super high winds this weekend so they'll either be playing in terrible conditions or the league may have to move the game to a new location. High winds and bad weather would obviously favor the Browns especially considering Allen's injury and now there are also reports that there's a major flu bug going around in the Bills locker room.

Moved to Detroit. Anyone who took over 43 must feel like it’s free $. 

[NYRaider]

5 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Moved to Detroit. Anyone who took over 43 must feel like it’s free $. 

Not sure when the official lines will come out but some I've seen and like as well as guys I'll be monitoring:

• Darius Slayton O44.5 receiving yards: Slayton has 58+ receiving yards in 4/5 games and has started to emerge as the Giants only consistent option in the passing game. The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the league and it looks like Wan'Dale Robinson is going to miss the game, setting up to be a smash spot.

• Tyler Higbee O43.5 receiving yards: Higbee looked good and was effective last week after dealing with an injury. He caught 8/8 targets for 73 yards with Kupp playing for most of the game and was clearly Stafford's second favorite target early on in the year. With Kupp out and the Rams total and complete inability to run the ball I think this is the type of game we could see him get 10-12+ targets. 

• DJ Moore U53.5 receiving yards: Moore has only hit O 54 receiving yards in 1/6 games with Baker Mayfield under center. The Ravens pass defense has been criticized but they've been better as of late giving up 201, 190, 155, 223, 305, and 195 through the air over the last 6 weeks. Baker wasn't great against the Ravens last year and with Darnold/Walker also in the mix, it could get ugly for them on Sunday. 

• Parris Campbell O receiving yards: Over the last three weeks that Campbell has played with Ryan under center he has put up: 7 catches/76 yards/1 TD, 10 catches/70 yards/1 TD, and 7 catches/57 yards/1 TD. Over that span he has a 25% target share and has been Ryan's go to guy and security blanket. The Eagles have one of the best pass rushes and outside CB duos in the league and are favored to blow the Colts out. So Campbell should be playing in a game with a positive game script since the Colts should have to throw the ball a ton and matches up well as I'm sure they'll emphasize getting the ball out quickly and trying to avoid targeting Bradberry/Slay. 

• Donovan Peoples Jones O receiving yards: Amari Cooper has been great during every home game and absolutely terrible on the road this year. DPJ is also coming off of 6 straight games with 50+ receiving yards (70+ in 5/6) and has become a favorite for Brissett. The Bills are expected to blow the Browns out this week which should lead to a positive game script where the Browns are forced to throw the ball to stay in the game. The fact that the game will now be in Detroit where they'll avoid any type of wind or weather also really benefits DPJ, imo.

[Broncofan]

43 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Not sure when the official lines will come out but some I've seen and like as well as guys I'll be monitoring:

• Darius Slayton O44.5 receiving yards: Slayton has 58+ receiving yards in 4/5 games and has started to emerge as the Giants only consistent option in the passing game. The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the league and it looks like Wan'Dale Robinson is going to miss the game, setting up to be a smash spot.

• Tyler Higbee O43.5 receiving yards: Higbee looked good and was effective last week after dealing with an injury. He caught 8/8 targets for 73 yards with Kupp playing for most of the game and was clearly Stafford's second favorite target early on in the year. With Kupp out and the Rams total and complete inability to run the ball I think this is the type of game we could see him get 10-12+ targets. 

• DJ Moore U53.5 receiving yards: Moore has only hit O 54 receiving yards in 1/6 games with Baker Mayfield under center. The Ravens pass defense has been criticized but they've been better as of late giving up 201, 190, 155, 223, 305, and 195 through the air over the last 6 weeks. Baker wasn't great against the Ravens last year and with Darnold/Walker also in the mix, it could get ugly for them on Sunday. 

• Parris Campbell O receiving yards: Over the last three weeks that Campbell has played with Ryan under center he has put up: 7 catches/76 yards/1 TD, 10 catches/70 yards/1 TD, and 7 catches/57 yards/1 TD. Over that span he has a 25% target share and has been Ryan's go to guy and security blanket. The Eagles have one of the best pass rushes and outside CB duos in the league and are favored to blow the Colts out. So Campbell should be playing in a game with a positive game script since the Colts should have to throw the ball a ton and matches up well as I'm sure they'll emphasize getting the ball out quickly and trying to avoid targeting Bradberry/Slay. 

• Donovan Peoples Jones O receiving yards: Amari Cooper has been great during every home game and absolutely terrible on the road this year. DPJ is also coming off of 6 straight games with 50+ receiving yards (70+ in 5/6) and has become a favorite for Brissett. The Bills are expected to blow the Browns out this week which should lead to a positive game script where the Browns are forced to throw the ball to stay in the game. The fact that the game will now be in Detroit where they'll avoid any type of wind or weather also really benefits DPJ, imo.

The only one I’m unsure about is DPJ.   Because BUF zone D is very good.   Gotta see the number there.   Slayton and Campbell going into my DFS so I’m with you there.  

[Broncofan]

The GB Wr props came out and I have to add Allen Lazard o48.5 Rec yds / 70+ Rec yds +240 FD 0.5U.    With Watson breakout and Cobb back there will be more spread attention - and A-Rod still trusts Lazard.    Given the pass funnel D that’s too low.   Added the A-Rod +1000 TD prop too lol.  

[NYRaider]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The only one I’m unsure about is DPJ.   Because BUF zone D is very good.   Gotta see the number there.   Slayton and Campbell going into my DFS so I’m with you there.  

The Bills actually rank 24th in the league in terms of YPG allowed to WR. 

[Broncofan]

FD craziness last 30 mins - Geoff Swaim up to +2300 - 0.5U.  

[NYRaider]

19 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

FD craziness last 30 mins - Geoff Swaim up to +2300 - 0.5U.  

Man I had a feeling on Hilliard anytime TD, smh

[NYRaider]

On 11/15/2022 at 5:58 PM, Broncofan said:

Austin Hooper +600 1U - their main receiving TE have to take a shot with no Campbell there  

Are you from the future?

[adamq]

11 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

I hear you on Hooper - I have ZERO other props on him lol.   Just he's the snap count guy, and until Okongkwo takes over the job, well, +600 is tough to overlook.

Great call. I've been burned with Hooper one too many times before so I skipped it 😂

[Broncofan]

On 11/15/2022 at 8:58 PM, Broncofan said:

For the TNF game I have 3 TD plays and 1 player prop: 

Treylon Burks o34.5 Rec yds - he ran just as many routes as Westbrook-Ikhine - but he drew Surtain Island for a large part of the game.   Jaire Alexander doesn’t follow in the zone scheme so I like the low #.   
 

Treylon Burks +480 / +5000 FD 1.2U / 0.3U - see above. 
 

Austin Hooper +600 1U - their main receiving TE have to take a shot with no Campbell there  

Chigoziem Okongkwo +1200 FD 0.5U   - the other guy.  
 

That’s it for now - few to no Packer props because of their WR uncertainty.   So looking to get Week 11 off to a good start!    

 

 

On 11/16/2022 at 11:02 PM, Broncofan said:

1 ATS pick, 1 player prop and 2 more TD props to add (this time on GB's side, have no idea what FD is doing), but I have to add on here:

TEN +3.5 - I follow the Titans rule and it's served me well - fade/pass on them as faves, but take them as dogs...especially home dogs.   I hope Jeffrey Simmons plays, but even if he doesn't, with the GB D reeling (no Devondre Campbell and no Gary really hurts them in a massive way), I'm ok with the 3.5.

Aaron Jones o23.5 Rec yds & 50+ +360 0.5U should be the way to get him  involved - because TEN’s top rated run D really funnels pass work to the RB’s short.  

Samori Toure +1600 FD 0.5U - I know, Cobb could be back.   And maybe Toure doesn't play at all - but he's also the only other vertical threat besides Watson.   And you have Sammy Watkins a play away from getting hurt.   That alone makes +1600 worth a stab.

Mercedes Lewis +1600 FD 0.5U - TEN is absolute NAILS vs. the run, top D by DVOA.   So if GB O gets it close....you know play action is alway at play, and Lewis is their best blocking TE - which is why he's always a longshot to score, but at +1600, also well above his actual probability vs. pass funnel D's like TEN's. 

As a contrast - DK has both of the guys above at +650 (which seems about right, so obv I'll go FD).

Also took 1 alt line for Burks +240 at 50+ yds for 0.5U to the main prop.  So that’s 8U on for TNF that’s definitely enough lol. 

BOL!

 

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

DK boosted Derrick Henry anytime TD to +100 that’s an auto-bet vs bad run D’s - max 2U.  

 

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The GB Wr props came out and I have to add Allen Lazard o48.5 Rec yds / 70+ Rec yds +240 FD 0.5U.    With Watson breakout and Cobb back there will be more spread attention - and A-Rod still trusts Lazard.    Given the pass funnel D that’s too low.   Added the A-Rod +1000 TD 0.5U prop (EDIT: & late Swaim +2300 0.5U props) too lol.  

So a nice night to start off Week 11, I'll take it - just wish Aaron Jones didn't get ignored again in the pass game, otherwise would have been a massive sweep night (but still a very good night).

ATS - 1-0, +1.0U - like I said, pass/fade TEN as a fave, but take them as a dog.   I totally forgot it was at Lambeau - didn't matter lol.

PLAYER PROPS - 2-1, +1.2U and frankly, the 1 loss was AWFUL luck, as Aaron Jones should have had at least 2 more catches but for A-Rod's terrible throws, and another 3-4x he was the clear read but A-Rod ignored him.    And worse, the Pack decided they'd try and run on the #1 run D by DVOA.   SMH.   

TD PROPS - 2-6, +4.0U - the Henry boosted prop for 2U +100 was nice, and Hooper +600 1U was sweet - it's a shame, Burks was ALL over the RZ, but couldn't score (and Swaim / Okongkwo were out there on all the plays inside the 5).   Still, it's a profit, won't complain.

If Jones hits, then it's even better, but I won't complain with a neat +6.2U profit.   Feels good after some of the disasters the past 2 weeks.

 

 

WEEK 11 TNF 

ATS/ ML & RACE

25-20-1 ATS, 9-14 ML/RACE, BALANCE +0.6U. (+1.0U Week 11 TNF).                                                                                                   .                      
PLAYER PROPS

70-74  BALANCE  +42.4U (+1.2U Week 11 TNF) - Now 33-31 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Week 10 Kmet huge payoff, Week 11 TNF Burks )

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-69, BALANCE +106.7U (+6.0U Week 11 TNF - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Week 10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300 & Week 11 TNF Austin Hooper +600).    
 

TOTAL:  +149.7U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +6.2U)

 

Edited November 18, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, NYRaider said:

The game is in Green Bay though sir, lol.

Shhh don't kill the narrative (total brain cramp...lol)

[Broncofan]

On 11/17/2022 at 5:15 PM, NYRaider said:

Not sure when the official lines will come out but some I've seen and like as well as guys I'll be monitoring:

• Darius Slayton O44.5 receiving yards: Slayton has 58+ receiving yards in 4/5 games and has started to emerge as the Giants only consistent option in the passing game. The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the league and it looks like Wan'Dale Robinson is going to miss the game, setting up to be a smash spot.

• Tyler Higbee O43.5 receiving yards: Higbee looked good and was effective last week after dealing with an injury. He caught 8/8 targets for 73 yards with Kupp playing for most of the game and was clearly Stafford's second favorite target early on in the year. With Kupp out and the Rams total and complete inability to run the ball I think this is the type of game we could see him get 10-12+ targets. 

• DJ Moore U53.5 receiving yards: Moore has only hit O 54 receiving yards in 1/6 games with Baker Mayfield under center. The Ravens pass defense has been criticized but they've been better as of late giving up 201, 190, 155, 223, 305, and 195 through the air over the last 6 weeks. Baker wasn't great against the Ravens last year and with Darnold/Walker also in the mix, it could get ugly for them on Sunday. 

• Parris Campbell O receiving yards: Over the last three weeks that Campbell has played with Ryan under center he has put up: 7 catches/76 yards/1 TD, 10 catches/70 yards/1 TD, and 7 catches/57 yards/1 TD. Over that span he has a 25% target share and has been Ryan's go to guy and security blanket. The Eagles have one of the best pass rushes and outside CB duos in the league and are favored to blow the Colts out. So Campbell should be playing in a game with a positive game script since the Colts should have to throw the ball a ton and matches up well as I'm sure they'll emphasize getting the ball out quickly and trying to avoid targeting Bradberry/Slay. 

• Donovan Peoples Jones O receiving yards: Amari Cooper has been great during every home game and absolutely terrible on the road this year. DPJ is also coming off of 6 straight games with 50+ receiving yards (70+ in 5/6) and has become a favorite for Brissett. The Bills are expected to blow the Browns out this week which should lead to a positive game script where the Browns are forced to throw the ball to stay in the game. The fact that the game will now be in Detroit where they'll avoid any type of wind or weather also really benefits DPJ, imo.

Full credit on the Slayton / Parris Campbell calls & under on DJ Moore.   The one other caution - NO's the top rated D vs. TE by DVOA.  And the boxscores show it, and watching about 4-5 games with heavy Kamara action - I'd avoid.   It's too bad, the real gold mine is RB and WR - but good luck figuring out if it's A-Rob or not.

Anyways, my early card:

ATS/ML

EARLY

DET +3 @ NYG - this is a reflection not on my belief in the Lions - but more that NYG is winning close games, AND the Lions pass D is actually improving.  The run D is still an issue, but with Evan Neal out 1 more week, and more importantly, the Lions getting Swift healthy, and likely DJ Chark back, I think they can hang with the G-men. 

CHI +3 @ ATL - I definitely think the wrong team is favored here.   As long as ATL is playing Mariota at QB, I'm just fading ATL outright ESPECIALLY as a favorite.

LATE

MIN +110 ML vs. DAL - I honestly don't get this - I know the DAL D can present a lot of trouble for MIN - but the MIN OL has improved dramatically in pass pro, and both Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson pose HUGE problems for the D.  On the flip side, I get that the DAL O can create problems for a D that's given up big plays and points - but DAL's O has also been very mistake prone.   HFA, the better coached team - give me MIN here.

SNF

LAC +6.5 (now +4.5 lol) - the line came out at +7 and I should have grabbed it then, but I did get +6.5 and I'm ok with it - OT insurance!   I'd always rather back Justin Herbert and big points.   I think 4.5 is fair, but 6+ was a no-brainer.

I'm also leaning LAR +3.5 @ NO even with Cooper Kupp out - because as long as Andy Dalton is the NO QB and Matt Stafford is the LAR QB, I think the TO matchup moves in LA's favor, especially with Lattimore, Davenport & Werner all out on D, and the OL still missing key guys (which makes life miserable with Aaron Donald there).   

I had a free FD parley, so I already won the 1st leg with TEN +3.5, but I took all 5 plays above (but haven't single-bet LAR +3 yet), for a 0.4U free play worth +5200.    For now, that's 4U in play.

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Danny Jones O34.5 rush yds 2U (no alt lines on FD, unfortunately) - With DET's pass D being much improved, run D still a big issue.   Every mobile QB has 50+ yards  (Hurts 90, Geno 49 <ok not 50 lol>, Fields monster game - but even A-Rod got 40).  Worth a play at both O34.5 & 50+ alt lines...

Devin Singletary O49.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +260, 90+ +600 0.5U FD -  CLE run D still a major problem, still have BUF winning, and protecting Josh Allen = more Singletary.  My  #2 play

Darius Slayton O45.5 rec yds (no alt lines on FD) - Top guy vs. bad pass rush, while DET pass D has improved, he benefit the most from longer developing plays.    Being heavy on run game with Saquon / Danny Jones is main reason I'm not going heavy here.       
 

David Njoku O35.5 rec yds 2U, 50+                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               +180, 70+ +460 FD 0.5U - late Sunday addition as he’s confirmed active.  
 

 

Nico Collins O40.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ +220, 60+ +480 O.5U FD - it's not Brandin Cooks, it's Nico's who the top target, and vs. WAS pass D, the guy to target.  My number #4 play.

Rhamondre Stephenson O20.5 rec yds 2U (no alt lines on FD) -  RB & TE are how you attack the Jets pass D.   Stephenson went 7/70 last time, I have to go full confidence, so 2U play, and I'd hit B365 props if they're there.  My #1 play

LATE

Matt Ryan O2.5 rush yds +100 (no alt line, consider if you have B365) - not going to get greedy, but if I had a 10+ prop, I'd do it. 

Parris Campbell O36.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +240 & 80+ rec yds +520 0.5U alt lines  - top slot guy, slot & RB is how you attack PHI pass D.  My #3 play

Greg Dulcich O37.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +240 & 80+ rec yds +520 0.5U alt lines - yeah, it's scary with Hackett & Russ Wilson.  But the Raiders are the worst TE D by DVOA, on average giving up 6+ catches and 65+ yds per game, so I have to go here.  #5 play.

That's 20U in plays, pending David Njoku rec yd & Dalton Schultz catch props (still not out yet)

 

TD PROPS

LONGSHOT TD PROPS
 

EARLY

David Njoku +400 / +4500 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - he's back, and vs. BUF's zone D, gotta take a shot at those odds.  Can't wait to see what the yardage props are, very high chance with those odds for TD that the yard targets are going to warrant a high-confidence 3.5U play.

Cole Kmet +280 / +3000 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - NYG is quite vulnerable to the TE in the RZ - so even though it's below +300, still value IMO.  

Damiere Byrd +800 FD 0.5U - I think CHI wins so I see ATL having to throw.  +800 is too good to pass up for a guy who's in the top 3 rotation.

Khadarel Hodge +1800 FD 0.5U - I get it, he's the 4th WR, and he scored in garbage time last time.  But as I have CHI winning, I have to play both Byrd & Hodge at those #'s. 

Stephen Sullivan +3000 FD 0.5U - Who?  The CAR backup TE, and the guy who was open on 1 flag route for a possible +2200 TD on TNF vs. ATL.   Again, the likelihood is low - but at +3000, for a guy who does get on the field, and is more of a pass-catcher, I'll go here.  ESP with a gamescript where BAL is likely ahead, I'll go here.

Juwan Johnson +380 / +4000 2+ FD (0.8U/0.2U) - LAR has a tougher D vs. TE's than PIT without Minkah - but as long as they keep throwing out near +400 odds, I have to keep taking my TD boy.

 

LATE

Pat Friermuth +350 / +3500 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - can't take the player props as ILB Wilson and S Bates are excellent overall - but at those TD odds, have to take a combined 1U stab.   

Peyton Hendershot +950 & Jason Ferguson +1500 FD 0.5U each - I know, I'm interested in Schultz props - but 'Boys are using plenty of 2-TE sets in the RZ with their WR corps not being that strong.   The other sites have the backups near the +600 range, so the FD props, have to take a 0.5U shot.

That's 6.5U in TD props - so for now, likely 32U in play for Sunday, pending Njoku/Schultz action.  BOL!

EDIT SAT PM:   Almost certainly going to add 2 more longshot 0.5U plays from the DEN game - WR Brandon Johnson +1000 and Jalen Vigil +700.   Only reason I won't now is FD has been increasing the odds in the last hour before gametime, and in this case, the WR's missing the game are well known (Jeudy/Hamler confirmed out).

 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Broncofan
Singletary rush props & TD props added, revised list with fewer alt lines available, still waiting on Njoku rec yds / Schultz catch props & waiting for longshot DEN TD props until just b4 gametime

[Broncofan]

OK some TD props are now out, and there's only 2-3 really crazy longshots with some value, but the +300 TE range has value this week, so here's my TD card:

LONGSHOT TD PROPS
 

EARLY

David Njoku +400 / +4500 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - he's back, and vs. BUF's zone D, gotta take a shot at those odds.  Can't wait to see what the yardage props are, very high chance with those odds for TD that the yard targets are going to warrant a high-confidence 3.5U play.

Cole Kmet +280 / +3000 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - NYG is quite vulnerable to the TE in the RZ - so even though it's below +300, still value IMO.  

Damiere Byrd +800 FD 0.5U - I think CHI wins so I see ATL having to throw.  +800 is too good to pass up for a guy who's in the top 3 rotation.

Khadarel Hodge +1800 FD 0.5U - I get it, he's the 4th WR, and he scored in garbage time last time.  But as I have CHI winning, I have to play both Byrd & Hodge at those #'s. 

Stephen Sullivan +3000 FD 0.5U - Who?  The CAR backup TE, and the guy who was open on 1 flag route for a possible +2200 TD on TNF vs. ATL.   Again, the likelihood is low - but at +3000, for a guy who does get on the field, and is more of a pass-catcher, I'll go here.  ESP with a gamescript where BAL is likely ahead, I'll go here.

Juwan Johnson +380 / +4000 2+ FD (0.8U/0.2U) - LAR has a tougher D vs. TE's than PIT without Minkah - but as long as they keep throwing out near +400 odds, I have to keep taking my TD boy.

 

LATE

Pat Friermuth +350 / +3500 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - can't take the player props as ILB Wilson and S Bates are excellent overall - but at those TD odds, have to take a combined 1U stab.   

Peyton Hendershot +950 & Jason Ferguson +1500 FD 0.5U each - I know, I'm interested in Schultz props - but 'Boys are using plenty of 2-TE sets in the RZ with their WR corps not being that strong.   The other sites have the backups near the +600 range, so the FD props, have to take a 0.5U shot.

 

That's 6.5U in TD props - so for now, 29U in play for Sunday, pending Njoku/Schultz action.  BOL!

 

EDIT SAT PM:   Almost certainly going to add 2 more longshot 0.5U plays from the DEN game - WR Brandon Johnson +1000 and Jalen Vigil +700.   Only reason I won't now is FD has been increasing the odds in the last hour before gametime, and in this case, the WR's missing the game are well known (Jeudy/Hamler confirmed out).

Edited November 20, 2022 by Broncofan
Sat additions added to the list, and DEN late additions b4 gametime

[Broncofan]

Adding Peyton Hendershot +950 / Jason Ferguson +1500 on FD  0.5U each.  
 

Sadly there are no alt lines on Stephenson Rec props or Jones rush props on FD or DK  (as it’s a secondary prop not the main one) - if you can get them on B365 I’d go there but just a 2U play for both.   Strangely enough Slayton props are off the board on FD and no one has Njoku Rec yds or Schultz Rec props.    
 

Campbell & Dulcich do have alt lines for 60-80 so I’m taking both.  

Edited November 19, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

With the BUF game looking like it will still happen - they've released the lines, and there's one that stands out to me - Devin Singletary O49.5 rush yds 2U, with 70+ +260 and 90+ for +600 0.5U on FD - CLE still has huge issues in their run D, and BUF will want to lean on Singletary more in trying to keep Allen out of harm's way.    This could go sideways if CLE gets ahead, or can play keep-away with TOP using their run game, but I do think the BUF D will do a good enough job to keep the Bills ahead, which then leads to more Singletary work.  

Also have one more super-longshot TD play for 0.5U:

Stephen Sullivan +3000 FD 0.5U - Who?  The CAR backup TE, and the guy who was open on 1 flag route for a possible +2200 TD on TNF vs. ATL.   Again, the likelihood is low - but at +3000, for a guy who does get on the field, and is more of a pass-catcher, I'll go here.  ESP with a gamescript where BAL is likely ahead, I'll go here.

 

Edited November 19, 2022 by Broncofan