Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

I'm really surprised the line's staying at PHI -3, I have a LOT of belief Hurts is playing.   Increased my PHI -3 stake to 4U.

 

One of the few times though where going early hurts the lines - they've all dropped like a rock - Metcalf to 57.5, Lockett to 48.5, Devonta Smith to 55.5.  Oh well.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Broncofan

[General Tso]

50 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I'm really surprised the line's staying at PHI -3, I have a LOT of belief Hurts is playing.   Increased my PHI -3 stake to 4U.

 

One of the few times though where going early hurts the lines - they've all dropped like a rock - Metcalf to 57.5, Lockett to 48.5, Devonta Smith to 55.5.  Oh well.

Would you lock in the under of 45 pts before Hurts is confirmed to play or not?

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, General Tso said:

Would you lock in the under of 45 pts before Hurts is confirmed to play or not?

Not really.   Neither D can cover.  I’m just avoiding that line altogether.   

[Broncofan]

OK Pete Carroll is a total d***, but I added Drew Lock +700 / +9500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U on FD - BOL ppl!

[thebestever6]

22 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

OK Pete Carroll is a total d***, but I added Drew Lock +700 / +9500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U on FD - BOL ppl!

damn there goes my daily fantasy lineup 

[thebestever6]

locked in noah fant to score +1100 at half and Dallas Goedert +800.

[Broncofan]

Well, that MNF was a heartbreaker....

MNF RECAP

ATS/ML - 0-1, -4U (ouch) Jalen Hurts literally made 4 decisions to give away the game (not recognizing a crosser for D-Smith for 30+ so they punted, the bomb on 1st down to Quez Watkins of all ppl - picked, leaving the pocket early to his right with all the receives going to the left on the 3rd down, and then not deciding to take throws over the middle in the last 25 secs with 3 TO's left)...OMG a perfect storm.  That was a 8U swing.....ugh. 

PLAYER PROPS - 1-2, -6.5U - DK Metcalf got his late, but Devonta Smith was the crusher - literally would have hit 80+ and main/1st alt line but for Hurts awful recognition....ugh.   Tyler Lockett was a bad call (although to be air, I took Lockett when Geno Smith returned to practice, with DK couldn't refund the plays when their totals went way down with the Geno news)

TD props - 0-2, -1U - not much in the way of opps.

So that hurts -11.5U - in reality, if we had the Geno news earlier, I would have only played Devonta Smith and DK, still would have lost, but not as much.   But literally Jalen Hurts just makes one different decision out of 5 bonehead ones......man, that 8U swing hurts, NGL.

An amazing 45U+ TNF/Sat slate comes crashing down to "only" +24.1U for the week......can't really get that upset, it's gambling...just stings tonight.   Still, taking player props early has served us well with amazing value....just tonight, it bit us hard.   Way it goes, let's get on the right track for WK16 (and yes, there are value plays already on the board).   

 

WEEK 15 FINAL

ATS/ML: 35-35-1, -0.7U (WK 15 - 4-3, -2U)

PLAYER PROPS: 134-119, +130.6U  (WK 15 TO MNF - 12-6, +16.3U)

LONGSHOT TD: 30-226- +10.7U  (WK 15 TO MNF - 5-21, +9.8U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000)

TOTAL - +140.6U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; 1126U stake so far)

 

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK, no rest for the weary, as FD & DK & TheScore already released....

WEEK 16 TNF

ATS/ML

LAR TT O25.5 +110 - since Matthew Stafford returned, LAR's hit this total except vs. the top 5 CLE D.  Don't let the NYG game fool you - NO is vulnerable to the run and pass game (esp on slot D) - just Tommy D's weaknesses were laid bare.  The Rams at home are a totally different animal.  I hate the -4 though, so I'd rather attack the total that I feel most confident about.  It's set at 24.5, but 25 is such a weird number, that I'll take a little juice on O25.5 (and yes, if they score 25 on the button, I'll feel pretty dumb lol).  

 

PLAYER PROPS

Alvin Kamara O49.5 rush yds 2U DK, 70+ rush yds +220 1U @ LAR - I'm pretty baffled by how low this number is, as NO's commitment to the run is pretty steadfast, and LAR isn't stout, being 19th in DVOA, allowing 85+ yds a game.    I know the OL hasn't thrived, but it's just such a low #.  Given that Kamara has only hit 80+ yards once, I'm likely only taking 1 alt line here. 

Cooper Kupp O69.5 rec yds 2U DK, 90+ rec yds +200, 110+ rec yds +400 0.5U vs. NO - NGL, I'm pretty shocked by it staying at 70 range.  Why?  I touched on this last week - but NO is awful in slot coverage these days, and their pass D is a lot more vulnerable vs. decent O's without Marshawn Lattimore.   Lattimore can return this week - but he doesn't travel to the slot.   So yeah, I'm ok with Kupp, and will likely take 2 alt lines here.  

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Chris Olave O51.5 rec yds FD 2U, alt lines pending (will take 2) @ LAR - Derek Carr could absolutely sabotage this, but LAR's pass D is so vulnerable to the alpha WR - we saw what Terry Mclaurin did last week.   At this total, I have to take it given the guaranteed volume he should see.

 

NEW ADDED WED PM - Juwan Johnson O21.5 rec yds 2U; 40+ rec yds +300 1U, 60+ rec yds +800 0.5U @ LAR - NGL trusting Derek Carr is so tough.   But Johnson’s the top matchup vs a bottom 3 TE yardage D.    It’s what makes his & Graham’s opening TD lines crazy IMO.   Sadly no 2nd alt line posted so have to go with X+ lines.   Out of the 5 plays I'm making for TNF, this is far and away my favorite (#2 is Olave at 51.5, but the inability to leverage alt lines with that number, drops it to #2).
 

NEW ADDED WED PM - Rasheed Shaheed O30.5 rec yds 2U; 45+ rec yds +210 1U, 62+ rec yds +500 0.5U @ LAR - NGL, this is my least favorite of my receiving props, but on principle alone, I have to play it.   On the off chance that Olave doesn't get past 50-60 yards, or Johnson doesn't get past 25-30, then the only guy with reliable game-breaking talent on NO's WR corps is Shaheed.   And to be clear, my projections are more in the low-mid 40's, which is a >25 percent discrepancy, which is why it's an auto-play.

So I'm probably going with 15.5U in 5 player props, unless the totals are inflated. 

 

LONGSHOT TD

Juwan Johnson +600 TheScore (+450 DK, +500 FD) / +6500 FD 0.8U / 0.2U @ LAR - TheScore thinks Jimmy Graham is a better TD bet, and they may be right.   But this is a LAR D that's given up 7 TD's to TE, and only DEN has given up more.   I'm going to go for the gusto here and take a full-stake play with Juwan getting the trust of Carr & coaches after a miserable Week 14 where he dropped 3 passes and got benched, he's back on track between the 20's and also still gets a fair number of RZ snaps.  Still, I'd be crazy to take Juwan and not take... 

Jimmy Graham +900 / +12000 2+ DK (+850 dropped to +600 FD, +500 TheScore lol) 0.8U / 0.2U @ LAR - the line movement in the last 30 mins since I started typing is already insane.   Same logic with Juwan applies to Jimmy Graham even more so - he's got 6 catches, and 4 for TD's lol.   If you can "only" get +500 - +600 / +10000 range, start thinking about a half-stake play instead (as the value dictates I go full stake just like I did with Juwan).

So in all likelihood, I'm likley at 18U for TNF I may sprinkle another TD prop if the opp looks right, but for now, that's it - you know who to look out for now.    Let's see if we can right the ship after SNF/MNF's misery.  BOL!

 

WEEK 16 TNF 

ATS/ML: 36-35-1, +0.4U (WK 16 TNF - 1-0, +1.1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 137-121, +137.2U  (WK 16 TNF - 3-2, +6.6U)

LONGSHOT TD: 31-228- +14.9U  (WK 16 TNF - 1-1, +4.2U, +9.8U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600)

TOTAL - +152.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 TNF - +11.9U; 1144U stake so far)

Edited December 22, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

While we wait for some pretty tasty TNF props......Sat props started trickling in, so there's one no-brainer, and already 4 tasty TD props, so let's dive in....

WEEK 16 SAT SLATE 

ATS/ML

BUF TT O27.5 2U - I'm not really sure how the total can be this low after what we just witnessed last TNF.   The thing is, I know that BUF -11 looks like a gift, but I think this is an even easier total to attack.   It doesn't rely on LAC scoring, and I think getting to 30+ happens if Josh Allen doesn't turn it over more than 1x (and it goes up if LAC turns it over vs. the BUF D)

 

I have zero feel for CIN-PIT TBH (although O37 does appeal to me), so I'm leaving that for now.    So it's a 2U stake.

 

PLAYER PROPS

 

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Tee Higgins O59.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 58.5 DOH), 79+ rec yds +210 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ PIT - we've seen what Higgins does when Chase is out - he gets #1 target volume.   Joey Porter Jr. is an upgrade, but he still gives up yardage.   Easy call at this #, esp as PIT's run D will likely have far more success in controlling the CIN run game (IND gashed them, but that's a top 3-5 run game - CIN is nowhere close). 

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Tyler Boyd O3.5 catches +110 TheScore (WED PM - now +100 DK) @ PIT - with all the vacated Chase targets, I expect Boyd to get an uptick, this is pretty good.  If I had B365 or US FD, I'd consider 5-6 (but no higher).  

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Diontae Johnson O40.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 44.5), 58+ rec yds +210 1U, 77+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. CIN - MIN's D is predicated on pressure and confusing the QB - but they still give up yards to the WR's.   Given the press surrounding Pickens and his lack of effort, and Mason Rudolph's history with Diontae, I'm happy to go here.    The crazy part - Rudolph's IMO a better passer (but little to no mobility, and has slow progressions - but he won't miss open guys as much as Trubisky does).   He's not this big upgrade, there's a reason why he's the 3rd stringer, but like Mullens, he isn't totally useless, either.    NGL, this is actually my 2nd favorite play for SAT, and I'm seriously considering 3rd alt line. 

NEW ADDED WED PM - Pat Freirmuth O24.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 26.5), 40+ rec yds +210 1U, 55+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK vs. CIN - again, I know this is Mason Rudolph starting, but consider this - in their last 8 games, CIN has given up 70+ yards to the TE all but 2x - once they gave up 60 yards, and the other time Mark Andrews had 2/23 in the first drive, and then left the game.  That's it.   and PIT knows this too, having targeted Freirmuth for 8-100+ last time.   So gotta take the 4U 3-alt line play here.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Tanner Hudson o27.5 rec yds 2U, 42+ rec yds +210 1U DK @ PIT - No Minkah makes a huge diff; with no Chase everyone gets a little more (and Higgins gets a lot more).  Sadly  I don’t have alt lines on catches so this seems decent.   

 

James Cook O69.5 rush yds DK (FRI PM - now 57.5 DOH) 2U, 90+ rush yds +200 1U @ LAC - I'm pretty tempted by the rec yds total as well, but I think this is much easier to attack.   Because the total is high, I may only go to 1 alt line, we'll see.   But the Bills new OC Joe Brady has shown he'll take what's there, and if the Chargers play back to limit the Bills D - the Bills will lean on the run.   

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Joshua Palmer o38.5 rec yds 2U / 60+ rec yds +280 1U / 80+ rec yds +900 0.5U -  No 2nd alt line but if they haven’t added it likely won’t until close to game time odds advantage drops if main line goes up, so taking it now.   Palmer's even healthier and has a full week of practice to get integrated with Eason Stick, so I love the line just as much as last week.   

I'm now waiting on LAC TE props.   That's 22.5U for 7 players so far.


LONGSHOT TD

Andre Iosivas +950 / +12000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U @ PIT - DK has Iosivas set at same odds as Trenton Irwin, but again, Iosivas saw more RZ looks when Chase or Higgins were out before.   I want to see the FD line before I take this, but if you don't have FD, DK already has decent value 

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Calvin Austin III +1900 / 16000 2+ TD DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CIN - Austin gets the actual receiving WR3 work now (Allen Robinson is the blocking slot WR) - and gets anywhere from 8-15+ snaps.   He's been missed a couple of times on deep balls (and scored on 1).   But the real reason I'm taking him now - that line is super-high, and the negative PR campaign on George Pickens' lack of effort, there's mounting pressure to bench PIckens, even if it's only a series or 2.   If it happens, Austin's the beneficiary.   At +1900, it's probably worth it alone given usage, but I have to take this with the Pickens story gaining steam (Peter King brought this to national limelight today).    Still, nothing is locked in, so it's only a half-stake play.

 

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Diontae Johnson +320 FD / +3000 2+ (wait until 330-4 PM ET) 0.8U / 0.2U vs. CIN  - the top WR in close as he separates.   Scored in last 3 games, worth the look vs. a leaky CIN secondary.   Still given it’s on FD it’s worthwhile to wait until closer to Gametime   

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Pat Freirmuth +440 FD / +4800 2+ (wait until 330 PM ET) 0.8U / 0.2U vs.  CIN** - frankly an even stronger play than Diontae given CIN’s coverage woes.  Will also wait but take closer to Gametime. 

NEW ADDED SAT PM LATE - Tanner Hudson +500 / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ PIT  - I was holding off but then Irv Smith GD inactive and PIT missing 4 safeties including Minkah Fitzpatrick so I have to take the half-stake shot.  

Donald Parham +1100 FD (+950 DK) / +11000 DK 0.8U / 0.2U  vs. BUF - with Allen out, Parham was out there more in the RZ last week, just didn't hit.    Thing is, even when Allen does play, #89 gets his share of RZ snaps.  This is an overreaction to the DAL game - I strongly believe BUF was the far better team, but DAL IMO was sick as a team (multiple players had the flu bug), and in bad weather they were flat.  I dont' think LAC wins the game - but I do think they have some success and could score 2 TD's.   I get the feeling Allen will play, but in the event he doesn't, this line craters, so I'll lock in +1100 / +11000 2+ now   In which case...

Alex Erickson +1600 / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1.U vs. BUF - the books think Keenan Allen plays, and that's reasonable.  But here's the thing - even if Allen does play, Erickson is the next best WR at creating separation in the RZ (even better than Palmer IMO).   Basically, I want every option who's going to be out on the field who creates mismatches, and who's +400 or better - and to me, that's Palmer (but not yet +400), Parham & Erickson.   Because Allen would greatly reduce their 1st-look opps, it's only a half-stake play for now. 

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Josh Palmer +360 FD / +3800 2+ (wait until 330 PM ET) 0.8U / 0.2U vs.  BUF  - basically taking the 3 top separators in the RZ for LAC as I already have Erickson & Parham .  Will also wait but take closer to Gametime. 
 

That’s 6U committed for TD’s on 8 players.    

I think Cook's rush line is going to soar, so getting on-board with some now (while I def think we can wait on Iosivas).  That’s 30.5U  for now on the Sat card.  BOL!

 

WEEK 16 TNF 

ATS/ML: 36-35-1, +0.4U (WK 16 TNF - 1-0, +1.1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 137-121, +137.2U  (WK 16 TNF - 3-2, +6.6U)

LONGSHOT TD: 31-228- +14.9U  (WK 16 TNF - 1-1, +4.2U, +9.8U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600)

TOTAL - +152.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 TNF - +11.9U; 1144U stake so far)

Edited December 23, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

A couple of smash spots jump out this early in the week....

 

Chuba Hubbard Over Rushing - The Packers have been miserable against the ground & this game is in Carolina. Should setup for a heavy workload. 

Garrett Wilson Over Receiving - Regardless of who's at QB, this number should be low enough to bite against a miserable Washington secondary. 

Joe Flacco Over Passing - If Stroud plays, Flacco is gonna make it 3 straight 300+ yard games. Houston is stout against the run, particularly at home, but are incredibly weak on the backend. 

Amari Cooper Over Receiving - Cooper is the deep target for Flacco, so I want him here. 

David Njoku Over Receiving - Houston stinks against TEs & Njoku has awoken recently as a YAC monster. 

David Montgomery Under Rushing - Minnesota might be the best run defense in the league when playing at home. Gibbs might get his, but I don't expect DMont to see much room here. 

Derrick Henry Over Rushing - Seattle has seriously struggled to stop the run & Henry should be in for a big bounce back game after what he called the worst game of his career. 

Baker Mayfield Over Passing - I'll likely choose a TB WR to bet on as well, but this sets up as another heavy Baker game as the Jags defend the run well but bleed on the back end. 

Zeke Elliott Over Rushing - Against the leagues worst run defense, volume should be heavy here. I'd expect this to open in the 70's. 

Raiders Over Rushing - Whoever is the RB here I want the Rushing Over. Chiefs are miserable on the ground. 

 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

A couple of smash spots jump out this early in the week....

 

Chuba Hubbard Over Rushing - The Packers have been miserable against the ground & this game is in Carolina. Should setup for a heavy workload. 

Garrett Wilson Over Receiving - Regardless of who's at QB, this number should be low enough to bite against a miserable Washington secondary. 

Joe Flacco Over Passing - If Stroud plays, Flacco is gonna make it 3 straight 300+ yard games. Houston is stout against the run, particularly at home, but are incredibly weak on the backend. 

Amari Cooper Over Receiving - Cooper is the deep target for Flacco, so I want him here. 

David Njoku Over Receiving - Houston stinks against TEs & Njoku has awoken recently as a YAC monster. 

David Montgomery Under Rushing - Minnesota might be the best run defense in the league when playing at home. Gibbs might get his, but I don't expect DMont to see much room here. 

Derrick Henry Over Rushing - Seattle has seriously struggled to stop the run & Henry should be in for a big bounce back game after what he called the worst game of his career. 

Baker Mayfield Over Passing - I'll likely choose a TB WR to bet on as well, but this sets up as another heavy Baker game as the Jags defend the run well but bleed on the back end. 

Zeke Elliott Over Rushing - Against the leagues worst run defense, volume should be heavy here. I'd expect this to open in the 70's. 

Raiders Over Rushing - Whoever is the RB here I want the Rushing Over. Chiefs are miserable on the ground. 

 

2 notes on player matchups that aren't as tasty as they seem - Derek Stingley Jr. has turned into a shutdown cornerback against big-body, box-out & post-up WR's (quick-twitch guys still give him problems).     If HOU puts him on Cooper, Cooper does struggle vs. good to great CB's.     Cooper's day vs. CHI was all against the CB's other than Jaylon Johnson.    When Cooper doesn't face a shutdown corner, he thrives - but shadow vs. good to great CB's is a problem, especially if his line increases knowing it's a top 5 pass yardage D.     Jaylon Johnson only allowed 2 catches for 15 yards with Cooper (his big play TD was against the other guy).   And it's only been 3 game since he returned from injury, but Stingley shows he can matchup against big body WR's.   

Since returning from injury, this is what Stingley has done:
 

Courtland Sutton 0-0 (4 targets), Jerry Jeudy & Marvin Mims - 6-87 - 4 PBU's, 2 INT's.

Garrett Wilson - explosion

Nuk Hopkins 2-12, 11 targets. 

 

While I think Cooper is a better WR than Jeudy has been this year (duh), it's the player type that matters - quick-twitch, sudden guys give Stingley fits because he bites on their moves.   It's why Garrett Wilson abused him.   But the post-up, big-body, non-elite twitch guys, he eats up.  That’s Cooper nowadays.    For that reason, Njoku is an even bigger play IMO.   Elijah Moore might have big value if his yardage prop is depressed.

The other play to be cautious on is Derek Henry.   TEN's OL is just that bad right now.    They are literally the worst OL in the league.    Then there's gamescript - if SEA gets ahead, then TEN's usage of Tyjae Spears goes way up.   TEN was leading and so they could give Henry 20+ touches.  That's not a given vs. SEA.    On a team that's looking for the future, there's a fair amount of risk with going with the vet who's not part of their future plans.

The others are sound, but as always it depends on the posted #'s.   Hubbard & Njoku in particular are smash spots.   

Edited December 19, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Mixing it up with hoops and an under - Ja Morant U25.5 TheScore 2U. 

First game back, supposed to be on limited minutes.   Worth the play.

 

 

[Broncofan]

Well, that's why I stick to football as my main game lol.

OK, added a few plays for TNF / Saturday:

 

WEEK 16 TNF

PLAYER PROPS

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Chris Olave O51.5 rec yds FD 2U, alt lines pending (will take 2) @ LAR - Derek Carr could absolutely sabotage this, but LAR's pass D is so vulnerable to the alpha WR - we saw what Terry Mclaurin did last week.   At this total, I have to take it given the guaranteed volume he should see.

 

WEEK 16 SAT

PLAYER PROPS

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Diontae Johnson O41.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (only X+ out, will take 2) vs. CIN - MIN's D is predicated on pressure and confusing the QB - but they still give up yards to the WR's.   Given the press surrounding Pickens and his lack of effort, and Mason Rudolph's history with Diontae, I'm happy to go here.    The crazy part - Rudolph's IMO a better passer (but little to no mobility, and has slow progressions - but he won't miss open guys as much as Trubisky does).   He's not this big upgrade, there's a reason why he's the 3rd stringer, but like Mullens, he isn't totally useless, either.    So I'm definitely taking this, and 1 other play (not out yet).

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Tee Higgins O59.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (only X= out, will take 2) @ PIT - we've seen what Higgins does when Chase is out - he gets #1 target volume.   Joey Porter Jr. is an upgrade, but he still gives up yardage.   Easy call at this #, esp as PIT's run D will likely have far more success in controlling the CIN run game (IND gashed them, but that's a top 3-5 run game - CIN is nowhere close)

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Tyler Boyd O3.5 catches +110 TheScore (-110 DK) @ PIT - with all the vacated Chase targets, I expect Boyd to get an uptick, this is pretty good.  If I had B365 or US FD, I'd consider 5-6 (but no higher).  

 

LONGSHOT TD

NEW ADDED TUES PM - Calvin Austin III +1900 / ?? 2+ TD DK 0.4U (taken) / 0.1U (waiting) vs. CIN - Austin gets the actual receiving WR3 work now (Allen Robinson is the blocking slot WR) - and gets anywhere from 8-15+ snaps.   He's been missed a couple of times on deep balls (and scored on 1).   But the real reason I'm taking him now - that line is super-high, and the negative PR campaign on George Pickens' lack of effort, there's mounting pressure to bench PIckens, even if it's only a series or 2.   If it happens, Austin's the beneficiary.   At +1900, it's probably worth it alone given usage, but I have to take this with the Pickens story gaining steam (Peter King brought this to national limelight today).    Still, nothing is locked in, so it's only a half-stake play.

 

That's it for now, still a couple of NO-LAR props I'd love to take (but not offered), and a couple of CIN-PIT & LAR-BUF props still not out yet, either.   So that's enough for now....

Edited December 22, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

they must of only had olave up as a test run can't find him anywhere.

[thebestever6]

Kevin Stefanski +1400 coach of the year? They're on their 4th string qb oline is decimated yet there is still a path for them to get to 12-5 ? Sign me up Jk I know this is a kiss of death just been really impressed with that coaching job this year.

and they lost nick chubb and they're in one of the toughest division in football. 

Edited December 20, 2023 by thebestever6