Karnage84 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Sitting at #7, and missing out on Brown, Okudah and Simmons, who else would you take there? We wouldn't miss out on those guys. That's my point and I think what CWood is also saying. 1 - CIN - Burrow 2 - WSH - Young 3 - CAR - Tua 4 - NYG - Jeudy 5 - MIA - Herbert 6 - LAC - Simmons Even in this scenario we would still have Brown and Okudah to pick from. Based on the trade value chart, a trade down to #7 would look like: 2020 1st (#7), 2020 2nd, 2020 4th + 2021 3rd. Keep in mind that the Panthers still have Cam under contract and could recoup some of that value in a trade for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: We wouldn't miss out on those guys. That's my point and I think what CWood is also saying. 1 - CIN - Burrow 2 - WSH - Young 3 - CAR - Tua 4 - NYG - Jeudy 5 - MIA - Herbert 6 - LAC - Simmons Even in this scenario we would still have Brown and Okudah to pick from. Based on the trade value chart, a trade down to #7 would look like: 2020 1st (#7), 2020 2nd, 2020 4th + 2021 3rd. Keep in mind that the Panthers still have Cam under contract and could recoup some of that value in a trade for him. I'm suggesting a scenario where Herbert is not selected before pick #7, and Brown, Simmons and Okudah are gone. If that's the case, what do you think the Lions' would consider? (There have been many early trades that show significantly more value. A 2nd and future 1st isn't unreasonable.) Edited January 15, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: I'm suggesting a scenario where Herbert is not selected before pick #7. If that's the case, what do you think the Lions' would consider? (There have been many early trades that show significantly more value. A 2nd and future 1st isn't unreasonable.) The trade down value for Herbert vs losing out on one of the blue chip guys isn't worth it to me. I'd let the Jags or any other team take him after we selected Brown or Okudah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) This is the part of draft discussion that always makes me scratch my head. It's January. Some have already determined that certain players will absolutely be drafted by certain teams, or wont fall past a certain point. That, if you suggest a hypothetical or ask a question that involves any other set of circumstances, you're somehow illogical, or going against reason. In January. Before free agency, before the combine, before trades, and when pertaining to something as unpredictable as the NFL Draft, which is months away. If that's the case, what's the point of discussing anything related to the draft? Edited January 15, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Karnage84 said: The trade down value for Herbert vs losing out on one of the blue chip guys isn't worth it to me. I'd let the Jags or any other team take him after we selected Brown or Okudah. In this suggestion, Brown, Okudah and Simmons are all off the board. As I said before, this would be somewhat "worst-case scenario" for our trade down. If that were the case, who would you draft at #7? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: This is the part of draft discussion that always makes me scratch my head. It's January. Some have already determined that certain players will absolutely be drafted by certain teams, or wont fall past a certain point. That, if you suggest a hypothetical or ask a question that involves any other set of circumstances, you're somehow illogical, or going against reason. In January. Before free agency, before the combine, before trades, and when pertaining to something as unpredictable as the NFL Draft, months away If that's the case, what's the point of discussing anything related to the draft? We can always have the conversation. I just have my own opinion on it. There are 7 blue chip guys at this point in the draft process for me right now. Burrow, Young, Tua, Simmons, Jeudy, Brown, Okudah. I'm not 100% sold on SImmons although I fully acknowledge he's a good player. Once you get past that, there's a greater chance that we'll wind up with a Jarrad Davis as opposed to a guy that will step in and be someone you can rely on Day 1. If we're trading down from #3 we have already accumulated extra picks. You can only have so many rookies on your roster and still be effective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) Answered. Edited January 15, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: In this suggestion, Brown, Okudah and Simmons are all off the board. As I said before, this would be somewhat "worst-case scenario" for our trade down. If that were the case, who would you draft at #7? So Burrow, Young, Tua, Brown, Okudah and Simmons are taken? That still leaves us with Jeudy at #7. We've already accumulated extra picks. I'd probably just take Jeudy there as BPA. WR isn't a major need but to say we couldn't use him and replace Marvin Jones is inaccurate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: I completely get that. So, if we were at #7, and Jeudy was the only of those players available, would you take him? Probably, yes. If we really didn't want to go that route I would look at Epenesa or one of the OT's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: So Burrow, Young, Tua, Brown, Okudah and Simmons are taken? That still leaves us with Jeudy at #7. We've already accumulated extra picks. I'd probably just take Jeudy there as BPA. WR isn't a major need but to say we couldn't use him and replace Marvin Jones is inaccurate. Interesting. And I'm not against Jeudy at all, under the right circumstances. If it fell that way, and a team called and offered a 2nd and future 1st to move down to the middle of the 1st round, I'd absolutely consider it if it meant still adding an edge rusher in the mid 1st round. Edited January 15, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Interesting. And I'm not against Jeudy at all, under the right circumstances. If it fell that way, and a team called and offered a 2nd and future 1st to move down to the middle of the 1st round, I'd absolutely consider it if it meant still adding an edge rusher in the mid 1st round. This is clearly SO early but I just don't see it happening for Herbert. He's either going to be in the mix in the top 7 or he's going to slip to LV, Indy or TB. I don't know if the Jaguars should move off of Minshew after last years showing. They definitely don't need to invest in a 1st round guy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Karnage84 said: This is clearly SO early but I just don't see it happening for Herbert. He's either going to be in the mix in the top 7 or he's going to slip to LV, Indy or TB. I don't know if the Jaguars should move off of Minshew after last years showing. They definitely don't need to invest in a 1st round guy. I think that's interesting though. Some feel that, if Tua goes #3, Herbert is a lock to go in the top 6. If he doesn't, couldn't a team want to move back up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: If the Lions moved down to #7 under the belief that either Brown, Okudah or Simmons would be available, and each of those players were taken, and someone called with a trade with good value in return, would they listen? Sure. They'd be doing themselves a disservice by not listening. But realistically, what kind of package is it going to take to get Quinn to bypass his second tier? Does a SRP get him to go from saying Okudah/Simmons to Fulton/Murray? Depends on how big a gap there is. The reality is that teams are more and more reluctant to part ways with picks. Probably moreso than pre-rookie salary cap era. Last year, we saw only ONE draft day trade (PIT-DEN) that involved top 20 pick(s) that didn't involve a QB. In 2018, we saw 3 draft day trades (NO-GB, GB-SEA, and BUF-BAL) involving top 20 picks that weren't for QBs. In 20156, we saw 2 draft day trades (TEN-CLE, CHI-TB) that involved top 20 pick(s) that didn't involve a QB. Teams usually aren't willing to trade down unless value is overwhelming, and teams are less and less reluctant to move up because of that premium. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: I have not been operating under the assumption, at any point, that Herbert is taken before #7. You think the Lions should take Wirfs or Thomas at #7? IF Tua goes 3rd overall, the premium on Herbert goes up. But even Herbert isn't taken, you've got 3 teams between the Lions' original pick and the theoretically acquired 7th overall pick. If Okudah, Brown, AND Simmons go off the board between those picks, what do the Lions do if they can't find a suitable trade package? That's where the Lions' premium gets applied. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 hours ago, Karnage84 said: Based on the trade value chart, a trade down to #7 would look like: 2020 1st (#7), 2020 2nd, 2020 4th + 2021 3rd. Keep in mind that the Panthers still have Cam under contract and could recoup some of that value in a trade for him. It'd take more than that IMO to get the Lions to move down. I think the Panthers would need to include either their '21 FRP or SRP to be honest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.