WindyCity Posted March 6, 2020 Author Share Posted March 6, 2020 23 minutes ago, abstract_thought said: What incentive is there for Hooper to take a backloaded deal when another team with more cap room can offer him the same AAV and give him his non-guaranteed salary immediately? What incentive is there for Hooper to come play with Mitch when he can play with Aaron Rodgers? The deal would not be backloaded, although most are, it would have a low year 1 salary. The Bears are flush in 2021. There is no incentive to come and play with Mitch over Rodgers, other than Rodgers being a massive *******, that is why you will have to pay more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 6, 2020 Author Share Posted March 6, 2020 How I sell Hooper 1. Green Bay sucks and Chicago is a massive market with off field opportunities 2. You will get more targets in Chicago then you will elsewhere 3. More money 4. Mitch will be better or he will be gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 4 hours ago, dll2000 said: Paying 15 million to Hooper instead of using that money to radically improve the OL is wrong move IMO. I'd call it insane especially when the top TE deals top out at $10 mil and that's Graham whom GB overpaid for out of desperation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, abstract_thought said: What incentive is there for Hooper to take a backloaded deal when another team with more cap room can offer him the same AAV and give him his non-guaranteed salary immediately? What incentive is there for Hooper to come play with Mitch when he can play with Aaron Rodgers? I'm in no way justifying paying Hooper that kind of money but you can back load deal pretty easily while giving the gtd $$$ upfront and in year two so by year 3 your deal cap has all but disappeared or it's far less than the players year three salary. For example: You agree to 4 yr deal with a $20 mil SB that for cap reasons only spread out over 4 years at $5 mil per yr. Your first year salary is a vet minimum of say $850k. So despite having gotten $20.85 mil total cash for the year your cap hit is only $5.85 mil. If there is more gtd $$$ due in the second year a roster bonus and/or a salary guarantee cover that. In year three the team is left with $10 mil in unamortized SB which they'll evaluate compared to your salary which is now $15 mil. If you're earning that $15 mil you're golden but if not you could be asked to take a salary reduction or be released saving the team the $5 mil difference between you salary and the dead cap they'll eat. I look at back loaded deals as any contract where significantly more than 50% of the total is due after year two. Edited March 6, 2020 by soulman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 1 hour ago, soulman said: I'd call it insane especially when the top TE deals top out at $10 mil and that's Graham whom GB overpaid for out of desperation. That’s going to change significantly with new Kittle and Kelce deals. My biggest issue with paying Hooper like that isn’t in his production as it compares to his soon-to-be contract peers. My biggest issue with it is that Kelce, Ertz and Kittle are the best receivers on their team and doing work with coverage focused on them where Hooper has had Julio and to a lesser extent Ridley drawing a lot of coverage away from him. ARob is a stud, but he’s not Julio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 Just now, AZBearsFan said: That’s going to change significantly with new Kittle and Kelce deals. My biggest issue with paying Hooper like that isn’t in his production as it compares to his soon-to-be contract peers. My biggest issue with it is that Kelce, Ertz and Kittle are the best receivers on their team and doing work with coverage focused on them where Hooper has had Julio and to a lesser extent Ridley drawing a lot of coverage away from him. ARob is a stud, but he’s not Julio. In that light, if it’s Hooper for $14M or Ebron for $7-8M Ebron probably makes more sense. That $5-6M difference is a good starter elsewhere, and both solve the immediate problem. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 7, 2020 Author Share Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) 4 hours ago, soulman said: I'd call it insane especially when the top TE deals top out at $10 mil and that's Graham whom GB overpaid for out of desperation. The past. Top TEs are about to blow that number out of the water. The number is artificially low because Kelce and Ertz signed before they were free agents 3 years ago. Edited March 7, 2020 by WindyCity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 7, 2020 Author Share Posted March 7, 2020 2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: In that light, if it’s Hooper for $14M or Ebron for $7-8M Ebron probably makes more sense. That $5-6M difference is a good starter elsewhere, and both solve the immediate problem. That will be the debate. But Pace has missed so many times at TE you have to be wary of the risks with Ebron. I have no issue if they just spend the money and stop the problem. I also do not have an issue if they spread the money around more. You almost need to land 1 of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 7, 2020 Author Share Posted March 7, 2020 4 hours ago, soulman said: I'm in no way justifying paying Hooper that kind of money but you can back load deal pretty easily while giving the gtd $$$ upfront and in year two so by year 3 your deal cap has all but disappeared or it's far less than the players year three salary. For example: You agree to 4 yr deal with a $20 mil SB that for cap reasons only spread out over 4 years at $5 mil per yr. Your first year salary is a vet minimum of say $850k. So despite having gotten $20.85 mil total cash for the year your cap hit is only $5.85 mil. If there is more gtd $$$ due in the second year a roster bonus and/or a salary guarantee cover that. In year three the team is left with $10 mil in unamortized SB which they'll evaluate compared to your salary which is now $15 mil. If you're earning that $15 mil you're golden but if not you could be asked to take a salary reduction or be released saving the team the $5 mil difference between you salary and the dead cap they'll eat. I look at back loaded deals as any contract where significantly more than 50% of the total is due after year two. All true. Players care about cash payment not cap hit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 3 hours ago, WindyCity said: That will be the debate. But Pace has missed so many times at TE you have to be wary of the risks with Ebron. I have no issue if they just spend the money and stop the problem. I also do not have an issue if they spread the money around more. You almost need to land 1 of them. You could very easily argue that Hooper at $14M and probably 3 years in guarantees is as much if not more significant of a risk than Ebron at $7-8M who also likely only significant guarantees into year 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abstract_thought Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 15 hours ago, soulman said: I'm in no way justifying paying Hooper that kind of money but you can back load deal pretty easily while giving the gtd $$$ upfront and in year two so by year 3 your deal cap has all but disappeared or it's far less than the players year three salary. For example: You agree to 4 yr deal with a $20 mil SB that for cap reasons only spread out over 4 years at $5 mil per yr. Your first year salary is a vet minimum of say $850k. So despite having gotten $20.85 mil total cash for the year your cap hit is only $5.85 mil. If there is more gtd $$$ due in the second year a roster bonus and/or a salary guarantee cover that. In year three the team is left with $10 mil in unamortized SB which they'll evaluate compared to your salary which is now $15 mil. If you're earning that $15 mil you're golden but if not you could be asked to take a salary reduction or be released saving the team the $5 mil difference between you salary and the dead cap they'll eat. I look at back loaded deals as any contract where significantly more than 50% of the total is due after year two. And what’s to stop another team from giving him the big signing bonus along with a realistic salary in year 1? What about the risks of putting large guarantees into his contract? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 7, 2020 Author Share Posted March 7, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: You could very easily argue that Hooper at $14M and probably 3 years in guarantees is as much if not more significant of a risk than Ebron at $7-8M who also likely only significant guarantees into year 2. Financial risk. Not on field risk. I am fine with a financial risk at TE, I am not longer interested in an on field risk. The financials do not worry me as we are about to see a massive cap spike and the Bears are 95% not going to have to pay a QB next year. Edited March 7, 2020 by WindyCity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 7, 2020 Author Share Posted March 7, 2020 17 minutes ago, abstract_thought said: And what’s to stop another team from giving him the big signing bonus along with a realistic salary in year 1? What about the risks of putting large guarantees into his contract? The first 3 years of the deal are going to be guaranteed. Does it matter if year 1 or 2 is a big number? Or even 3 for that matter. He won’t see significant unguaranteed money till year 4 in any deal he signs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted March 7, 2020 Share Posted March 7, 2020 3 hours ago, abstract_thought said: And what’s to stop another team from giving him the big signing bonus along with a realistic salary in year 1? What about the risks of putting large guarantees into his contract? There’s always a way someone could pay more money, but everyone will put a limit on it. If someone wants to pay Hooper $30M in 2020 just because they can then we can’t compete with that... but nobody is going to do that. Most big contracts are looked at in terms of guarantees and money in the first 3 years. We can match up with anything anyone will offer in either regard for Hooper. Our biggest concern IMO re: signability as it pertains to Hooper isn’t money - it’s that GB and NE (if Brady is back) are probably better situations on the field for him at least for 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted March 7, 2020 Author Share Posted March 7, 2020 Just now, AZBearsFan said: There’s always a way someone could pay more money, but everyone will put a limit on it. If someone wants to pay Hooper $30M in 2020 just because they can then we can’t compete with that... but nobody is going to do that. Most big contracts are looked at in terms of guarantees and money in the first 3 years. We can match up with anything anyone will offer in either regard for Hooper. Our biggest concern IMO re: signability as it pertains to Hooper isn’t money - it’s that GB and NE (if Brady is back) are probably better situations on the field for him at least for 2020. NE with Brady would concern me because they can offer him a big role in the offense. I am not sure there cap would allow it with Brady back. There is a pretty big exodus coming in NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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