AZ’s pre-combine mock offseason

[AZBearsFan]

Start $14M cap space 

RELEASE

CB Amukamara +9M

WR Gabriel +4.5M

TE Shaheen +1.3M

TE Braunecker +1.5M

$30.3M cap space 

EXTEND

WR Allen Robinson 5/80M extension thru 2025 (6/95 total). Per my precious thread. 2020 cap hit: $10M (+5M)

DT Akiem Hicks 3/$38M extension thru 2024 (total new contract 5/$58.6M). $26.2M in new guarantees. I converted $7M of the existing $10.2M 2020 salary to a signing bonus with the remaining $3.2M salary fully guaranteed for a 2020 cap number of just $5.2M (amortization of remaining SB + new SB = $2M/yr). 2021 base salary is $10M and fully guaranteed. In 2022 $6M of base salary is fully guaranteed. No guarantees 2023 or 2024. No roster/workout bonuses in deal. Salaries 2022-2024: $10M, $12M, $16.4M

Cap hits: 

2020: $5.2M

2021: $12M 

2022: $12M ($12M dead cap on release)

2023: $14M ($4M dead cap on release)

2024: $18.4M ($2M dead cap on release)

(+6.6M)

($61.6M collective cap charge over duration accounts for carryover of the $3M in prior SB yet to be accrued against the cap)

Effectively I guaranteed what’s due to him through the rest of his current contract + ~$5M more in guarantees in exchange for adding what essentially amounts to team options for 2023-24 with reasonable outs for the team at pro bowl player money for his age 33 and 34 seasons. Since we’d realize a $0 cap savings to cut him in 2022 essentially this is effectively a completely new 3-year guarantee of $30.2M allowing us to buy a bargain year for cap relief in 2020. Hicks loses no essentially money in his pocket over 2020-21 with the new deal (< $500k) in exchange for $6M more fully guaranteed in 2022 and $10M more effectively guaranteed. We get what’s probably a slight market discount overall in exchange for essentially a complete 3-year guaranteed salary in line with what he’s already set to make. (You could adjust the 2024 salary he’s unlikely to ever play under if you’d like to change the AAV of the deal but it’s the guarantee that matters). Pace likes to reward his own and it’d be hard to argue there’s a more deserving candidate for this than Hicks. 

$41.9M cap space 

RE-SIGN

ILB Kevin Pierre-Louis 2/$8M, $3M guaranteed, including a $2M SB (2.25/5.75) 

Pressed into service due to injury he performed well enough to earn a shot at a full time gig IMO. Here we’re giving him what amounts to a prove it deal where, if he does, he earns a solid pay bump in year 2 before FA again at 28.

LS Patrick Scales 2/$2.5M (1.2/1.3)

Solid long snapper. We need one, so we keep him. 

DL Roy Robertson-Harris 1/$2.2M (original round RFA tender)

RRH remains a solid rotation player for us who flashes impact ability. It may be prudent to give him the 2nd round tender to virtually assure he doesn’t draw an offer elsewhere. I didn’t do that here but left cap room to either change my mind or for us to match any offer he might reasonably draw. He’s in an ideal spot here sharing the defense with a healthy Mack and Hicks to again show out and earn a significant pay day in 2021. 

TE JP Holtz ERFA 1/$610k

Adequate in many roles but a master of none, Holtz is solid depth at a bargain price. This was a no-brained for me. 

CB Sherrick McManis 1/$1.75M, $500k guaranteed 

Longest tenured Bear remains a ST standout and provides some depth versatility on defense 

OLB Isaiah Irving 1/$1M 

Irving has shown to be just a guy on defense but an adequate ST player. Here he’s end of the roster experienced depth who will need to continue to show ST value to be active on Sundays 

S DeAndre Houston-Carson 1/$1M

See Isaiah Irving above

$31.89M cap space 

FREE AGENCY

SS Karl Joseph 4/$24M, $12M guaranteed, including a $6M SB (cap hits 4.5/5.5/6/8)

We saw in 2019 that Eddie Jackson is at his most impactful for us when he’s backed off the LOS and allowed to make instinctive plays on the ball. HHCD was solid last year but didn’t excel near the LOS which miscast EJ and limited his effectiveness. Joseph is the opposite - he is strong in the box and brings some intimidation to the secondary that was lacking in 2019. In what essentially amounts to a 2/$12M deal here the former 1st rounder provides both stability and also some upside on the back end. 

TE Vance McDonald 4/$22M, $8M guaranteed, including a $4M SB (3.5/5/6/7.5)

McDonald has always been somewhat of a tease. He has flashed the skill set to be a difference maker in the passing game but hasn’t produced consistently at the peak of his potential. With that, he brings a reasonably high floor to the position at average production with potential for more with the increased usage he may see in the Nagy scheme. With comparable targets in 2018 he and Burton put up similar numbers. Replicating that here as our TE1 (or TE1a if Burton is healthy) is something this offense was sorely missing in 2019. 

QB Marcus Mariota 1/$5M, fully guaranteed, plus $3M in performance escalators:

$100k per game started up to $1M max 

2,250 Pass Yards: $500k

2,750 Pass Yards: $250k

3,000 Pass Yards: $250k

$250k each for 18. 20, 23, 25 TD Passes

We need a vet QB and Mariota needs a home. I don’t see him finding a starting gig on the FA market as there are better FA options and at least 2 rookie QBs I expect to start week 1, and with the seemingly tenuous nature of Mitch’s grasp on QB1 Chicago may be the next best thing for him. I structured this deal essentially the same as the 2019 Tannehill deal in terms of incentives but with a higher base salary. Ideally this is a high priced insurance policy we never need to use, but if called upon hopefully lowered expectations and a fresh start is just what Mariota needs to jumpstart his career. 

DL A’Shawn Robinson 2/$5M, $2M guaranteed (cap hits 2.25/2.75) 

Robinson is an established 2-down run stuffer and space eater along the DL. Here he’s a quality depth and rotational player. 

SS Miles Killebrew 1/$1.5M

I’ve been a fan of Killebrew going back to the 2016 draft, though he’s never established himself as more than SS depth and a ST contributor. That’s the role he’s cast in here behind Joseph. 

OG Steven Wisniewski 1/$1.5M

Wiz brings 100+ career starts and experience the precious 4 seasons working under Doug Peterson and Andy Reid. He’s veteran depth with versatility to fill in at all 3 interior spots. 

FB Derek Watt 2/$3M (1.25/1.75) 

I’m hoping here that Matt Nagy realizes through self scouting the value a true FB can add in the run game after seeing Montgomery’s success in the I-formation and our repeated failures on 3rd and short. Watt is just that and also is a standout ST contributor.  

OLB Jeremiah Attaochu 1/$1M

In this scenario Floyd remains under the 5th year option. Attaochu is a career backup who’s showed a bit of pass rush ability in a limited role. That’s where he’s cast in here. 

RB Bilal Powell 1/$1M

We presently don’t have anyone who can handle a full starter workload should injury occur to Montgomery. Powell is quality depth in that he’s a viable asset on all 3 downs (3 separate seasons with 30+ catches) and has shown the ability to handle a significant amount of carries with sustained success. 

$10.39M cap space ($7.39M if Mariota were to hit all escalators)

DRAFT

2- WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State

Matt Nagy wants to run the Chiefs offense, and to do that we need SPEED. Aiyuk has speed in spades, is great after the catch and has legitimate size (6-1 206) to play outside. He’s also an experienced KR/PR and here Patterson and Cohen are both out of contract after 2020.  Him being a product of my alma mater is just a consolation prize to me - I have he, Reagor and Hamler all rated comparably with similar skill sets, with Aiyuk having the best size. 

2- OG Damien Lewis, LSU 

RG was a gaping hole for us last year, and Lewis is a powerful blocker who excelled at the highest level of college football at LSU and then was a standout at the Senior Bowl. He should be able to step right in at RG as a fixture for the Bears out of the gate. 

4- LB Logan Wilson, Wyoming

Former safety is a tackle machine who is strong in coverage (9 INT) and is a high motor player despite some athletic limitations. Here he competes with KPL for a role next to Roquan in replacing DT and Kwiatkowski. 

5- OT Trey Adams, Washington 

Washington is huge at 6-8 315 and was regarded as one of the top OT prospects for the 2019 draft before returning after a pretty significant back injury. I think he’s available here because he has medical red flags but he has straightforward starter potential if healthy which is why he may not be here despite the red flags. 

5- S JR Reed, Georgia 

Reed is a box safety prospect who excels with the play in front of him. With Jackson and Joseph in the fold in this scenario he’s a depth/developmental player and likely candidate for 4-phase ST work where his athletic profile suggests he should thrive. 

6- TE Devin Asiasi, UCLA

Asiasi made strides in 2019 as a receiver with 641 yards receiving and 4 TD and from everything I can find on him is a pretty solid blocker at 6-3 279. Here he’s competing for TE3 work in 2020 with Holtz, Horsted and Raymond with an eye toward an expanded role in 2021. 

7- DL Bravvion Roy, Baylor

He had a good showing at the Shrine Bowl and being honest I’m just connecting need for a body to replace Nick Williams on the DL at this point. 

7- EDGE Tipa Gileai, Utah State 

Projection edge player who has speed and not a whole lot else at this juncture. Here he’s depth with upside after he develops NFL hand usage and counter moves to his speed. 

DEPTH

QB Trubisky, Mariota 

RB Montgomery, Cohen, Powell, Watt

WR Robinson, Miller, Aiyuk, Ridley, Wims, Patterson

TE McDonald, Burton, Asiasi, Holtz 

OL Leno, Whitehair, Daniels, Lewis, Massie, Wisniewski, Adams, Coward  

 

DL Hicks, Goldman, Nichols, RRH, Robinson, (Roy to PS)

EDGE Mack, Floyd, Attaochu, Irving, Gileai 

ILB Smith, KPL, Wilson, Iggy, Woods

CB Fuller, Toliver, Roberson, Skrine, Shelley, McManis

S Jackson, Joseph, Killebrew, Reed, DHC (McManis)

 

K Pineiro 

P O’Donnell 

LS Scales 

NOTES

-I opted not to mess with Floyd’s option in an effort to create cap space at this point since I’m not ready to commit big money to him beyond this year. Hicks is a star, and a similar cap gain was able to be made adding to his deal. Being able to attempt to find a long term deal on him after the season without the option number overhanging the negotiation and without compromising the ability to fully address FA this year was key to me. I wanted all options open on Floyd looking beyond 2020. 

-In an ideal world most or all of the depth signings I outlined in FA come after the cutoff date for the comp pick formula. In this scenario I have us losing DT, Kwiatkowski, HHCD to FA as clear starters elsewhere, Williams and Bush as potential starters elsewhere and Daniel, Lucas and maybe Larsen as backups elsewhere. I’d probably keep Bush over signing Killebrew if the $ was the same (and would also help with the comp pick formula) but I think he’ll fetch a bit more. Beyond Joseph/McDonald/Mariota the rest of the FA I have us signing are just guys and as far as I’m concerned we can find them or comparable talents in June just as easily as March with the benefit being extra draft pick(s) if everything falls right for our guys signing elsewhere. I think Pace will be (or should be) aggressively targeted at the outset of FA in hitting our key needs, and then really patient.

[JAF-N72EX]

I don't have time to read through all of this but a couple of things that stick out to me....

I like the extensions but are you not bringing back Trevathan?

15 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

WR Allen Robinson 5/80M extension thru 2025 (6/95 total). Per my precious thread. 2020 cap hit: $10M (+5M)

What about Super Bowl incentives? 

18 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

TE Vance McDonald

While this would be nice. He has already said that he wants a chance to play with Ben next year so I wouldn't get my hopes up. Believe me, he was my mid-season pick as well.

 

[AZBearsFan]

13 hours ago, JustAnotherFan said:

I don't have time to read through all of this but a couple of things that stick out to me....

I like the extensions but are you not bringing back Trevathan?

What about Super Bowl incentives? 

While this would be nice. He has already said that he wants a chance to play with Ben next year so I wouldn't get my hopes up. Believe me, he was my mid-season pick as well.

 

Not bringing DT back here. Opted for Joseph with that $. Definitely the hardest FA for me to not bring back. McDonald may want to play with Ben but it’s ultimately a club option so not his call. 

[dll2000]

I think that Mariota contract is very wishful thinking, but if that is deal I would take it in a heartbeat.

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I think that Mariota contract is very wishful thinking, but if that is deal I would take it in a heartbeat.

It’s certainly dependent on how FA shakes out, but if he’s not getting a stronger starting shot elsewhere he’s almost certainly looking at pretty typical experienced veteran backup money with incentives. Outside of his draft status what does he really have to hang his hat on to justify a better deal? He just got rightfully benched for a guy who was himself a reclamation project, and he has pedestrian passing numbers the past 3 seasons. I’m not super convinced he’s a better backup option than Daniel tbh but I think his athletic profile makes more sense, plus we need a change in the QB room and MM can only be helped by a change of scenery. 

[GOGRIESE]

Are you rolling with KPL as the starting ILB next to Roquan with this mock AZ? If so I quite like that idea. Certainly the cheaper option and I think adds another pass rushing element. 

[AZBearsFan]

39 minutes ago, GOGRIESE said:

Are you rolling with KPL as the starting ILB next to Roquan with this mock AZ? If so I quite like that idea. Certainly the cheaper option and I think adds another pass rushing element. 

He’s gotta hold off Wilson here (who I like quite a bit), but yeah. He impressed me this year.