Matts4313 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 (edited) So I want to address 2 prevailing myths: That QB contracts are getting out of control That paying your QB hurts your chance at winning --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Point 1: QB contracts are the same as they always have been. Yes, sometimes QBs have really high cap years. But on average, top QBs are still getting paid roughly ~15% of cap the year they sign. 2020: Goff is the highest hit at 17%. But by the time you get to #5, Matt Ryan, you are down to 11%. Remember, Ryan was the largest contract just a few years ago. 2019: Rodgers at 15%; 5th is Rivers is 12% 2018: Stafford at 14%; 5th is Brees at 13% Peyton Mannings largest cap hit? 16% in 2009 - a decade ago Bradys largest was 14% - - in 2006 Steve young in 1993, in a MVP Superbowl year.... 16% of the cap. Marino was 15% in 98. Aikman was 13% in a superbowl year. Elway also peaked around 13%. Favre hit 14%. As you can see, for the entire existence of the cap, QBs have signed a contract that hit ~15%. And obviously with the way the cap works, 15% 1 year, becomes ~13% the next, ~10-11% the year after that. Its just the nature of the beast. Even Goff, who is 17% this year, drops to 14% in 2021. By 2022? He is under 10%. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Point 2: You can win with QBs on 2nd contracts. Virtually every QB just listed made or won a Superbowl after signing a contract that put them at 15% of the cap. Those QBs have like, what, 25 superbowl appearances and over a dozen wins between them? Bradys made 4-5 after a second contract, Manning, Aikman, Favre, Elway, Young, Brees *ALL* made superbowls after second contracts. Big Ben, Jimmy G and Bledsoe as well. Many of them made it after becoming (or close to) the highest paid player in the NFL at some point in their career. What people are suffering from is the recency bias of a few stellar rookie contract QBs. But even that doesnt have legs. Of the playoff QBs this year, Watson, Mahomes and Jackson were the only rookie contracts. Thats true for most years. More teams with QBs on second contracts make the playoffs. So, the big take away: All good QBs get a contract where they are roughly 15% of the cap. That % of the cap will decrease every year. Having one of those QBs does not hurt your chances of making the playoffs. Once you are in the playoffs, anything can happen. There have been HOF careers made with a QB who was at one point the highest paid player in the NFL. Edited February 4, 2020 by Matts4313 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 And before anyone ask. Yes, I did make this entire post to prove @Outpost31 and @Yin-Yang wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Matts4313 said: And before anyone ask. Yes, I did make this entire post to prove @Outpost31 and @Yin-Yang wrong. At me when a QB wins a Super Bowl at that 13% rate when they don't cheat the salary cap. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/1/2/18164980/nfl-playoffs-quarterbacks-salary-cap-kirk-cousins-patrick-mahomes This article takes a good amount of time telling you how wrong you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Outpost31 said: At me when a QB wins a Super Bowl at that 13% rate when they don't cheat the salary cap. https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/1/2/18164980/nfl-playoffs-quarterbacks-salary-cap-kirk-cousins-patrick-mahomes This article takes a good amount of time telling you how wrong you are. Well, I mean, I did list QBs that did it in my post. But secondly, you are missing the point. They may not have won it the *year* they were at 13%. But they won it with a contract that paid them ~15% at some point in the contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Matts4313 said: Well, I mean, I did list QBs that did it in my post. But secondly, you are missing the point. They may not have won it the *year* they were at 13%. But they won it with a contract that paid them ~15% at some point in the contract. Lol. This means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: Lol. This means nothing. It means everything. You are completely missing the point. Ill try to paint it another way: QB Signs a deal at 15%. 5 year deal. After cap manipulation, the actual hits by year are: 8% 15% 10% 11% 9% If that QB won the superbowl in every single year except year 2 - - by your logic (and that of the article) it was a bad contract. See how dumb that is? Edited February 4, 2020 by Matts4313 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soko Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 This “proves” about as much as the other thread that “proved” that the run game is irrelevant, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Matts4313 said: It means everything. You are completely missing the point. Ill try to paint it another way: QB Signs a deal at 15%. 5 year deal. After cap manipulation, the actual hits by year are: 8% 15% 10% 11% 9% If that QB won the superbowl in every single year except year 2 - - by your logic (and that of the article) it was a bad contract. See how dumb that is? Well let's see here... 25 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 13% of the cap. 24 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 12% of the cap. 22 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 11% of the cap. 19 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 10% of the cap. 17 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 9% of the cap. 15 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 8% of the cap. 15 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 7% of the cap. 11 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 6% of the cap. 9 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 5% of the cap. Re-crunch your numbers and get back to me when you think it's a good idea to pay your QB over 10% of the cap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: Well let's see here... 25 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 13% of the cap. 24 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 12% of the cap. 22 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 11% of the cap. 19 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 10% of the cap. 17 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 9% of the cap. 15 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 8% of the cap. 15 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 7% of the cap. 11 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 6% of the cap. 9 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 5% of the cap. Re-crunch your numbers and get back to me when you think it's a good idea to pay your QB over 10% of the cap. So the answer is to either have Andy Dalton, or re-draft your QB every 5 years? Head bending stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 Here is a real life example. Brady from his 05 exentions. Cap hits: 10% 14 7 13 12 uncapped During that extension, he made 2 superbowls and won 1. Manning after 04: 10 10 8 17 16 During that time, he made 2 superbowls and won 1. Manning again: 15 14 13 12 Made 2 superbowls and won 1 Eli during the mid 2009's 11 uncapped 12 8 17 5 Made and won a superbowl. Big Ben: 11 Uncapped 9 7 11 14 Won a superbowl Most of these QBs didnt win the superbowl in their highest capped year. But they all won superbowls on some of the biggest contracts in the NFL And this doesnt even include all the QBs who made it to a superbowl on big contracts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said: This “proves” about as much as the other thread that “proved” that the run game is irrelevant, lol. That you dont read thoroughly when you dont agree with the thread title? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Also, you're going by Overthecap it looks like. Matt Ryan is making 24 million next year. Cap is 200 million. 24/200 = .12 12%, not 11%. And yeah, Ryan is only going to have 12% hit this year. Look at next year. It jumps right back to 39 million. Are you honestly going to sit there and act like it's easy to build a team when your QB goes from 15 million to 24 million to 39 million? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, theJ said: So the answer is to either have Andy Dalton, or re-draft your QB every 5 years? Head bending stuff. Or, try to deflect most of the cap hit into one year and basically tank that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: Well let's see here... 25 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 13% of the cap. 24 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 12% of the cap. 22 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 11% of the cap. 19 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 10% of the cap. 17 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 9% of the cap. 15 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 8% of the cap. 15 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 7% of the cap. 11 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 6% of the cap. 9 of the last 25 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were paid under 5% of the cap. Re-crunch your numbers and get back to me when you think it's a good idea to pay your QB over 10% of the cap. The point Your head Reread the post I just made and try again. **ITS NOT THAT THEY WON THE YEAR THEY HAD A BIG CAP HIT** ITS THAT THEY SIGNED A HUGE CONTRACT, AND WON ON THAT CONTRACT. How can I state this in any other way that is more clear?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matts4313 Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Outpost31 said: Also, you're going by Overthecap it looks like. Matt Ryan is making 24 million next year. Cap is 200 million. 24/200 = .12 12%, not 11%. And yeah, Ryan is only going to have 12% hit this year. Look at next year. It jumps right back to 39 million. Are you honestly going to sit there and act like it's easy to build a team when your QB goes from 15 million to 24 million to 39 million? Does this make any sense as to why you are missing the point? And yes, over the cap. 3 minutes ago, Matts4313 said: Here is a real life example. Brady from his 05 exentions. Cap hits: 10% 14 7 13 12 uncapped During that extension, he made 2 superbowls and won 1. Manning after 04: 10 10 8 17 16 During that time, he made 2 superbowls and won 1. Manning again: 15 14 13 12 Made 2 superbowls and won 1 Eli during the mid 2009's 11 uncapped 12 8 17 5 Made and won a superbowl. Big Ben: 11 Uncapped 9 7 11 14 Won a superbowl Most of these QBs didnt win the superbowl in their highest capped year. But they all won superbowls on some of the biggest contracts in the NFL And this doesnt even include all the QBs who made it to a superbowl on big contracts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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