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Top 10 Statistical QBs 2019-20


HoboRocket

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59 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Well that's the problem. There really isnt a formula. Its all subjective. It's grading based off what they watch and accrediting different scales of value to different aspects. Its much like PFF's grading. But unlike QBR, PFF grading more routinely correlates to what the mass sees when watching the qbs play. QBR, really doesnt. It's a mess.

No its not. Its based on EPA, advanced analytics. You are completely wrong about this. I dont think you even read the articles you posted. And once again, its the second highest correlated stat to winning.

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1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

No its not. Its based on EPA, advanced analytics. You are completely wrong about this. I dont think you even read the articles you posted. And once again, its the second highest correlated stat to winning.

I dont think you read the articles. It looks at passing, rushing, fumbles, it looks at distance and down, air yards.. all of it absolutely contextually subjective, with no trace of any type of standardized baseline formula. It correlates to winning because it uses outcomes in it's grading. It says that much in the articles. Sorry fam, you're 110% wrong on this. It is a garbage stat and always has been and always will be. It doesnt correlate to actual quality of qb play.... almost at all.

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33 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

I dont think you read the articles. It looks at passing, rushing, fumbles, it looks at distance and down, air yards.. all of it absolutely contextually subjective, with no trace of any type of standardized baseline formula. It correlates to winning because it uses outcomes in it's grading. It says that much in the articles. Sorry fam, you're 110% wrong on this. It is a garbage stat and always has been and always will be. It doesnt correlate to actual quality of qb play.... almost at all.

You cant say at all. For the most part it does reflect the quality of play. Is it flawed yes. But can you look at it can and tell if a QB played good? 99% of the time yes. It also matches the eye test.

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1 hour ago, Bearerofnews said:

all of it absolutely contextually subjective, with no trace of any type of standardized baseline formula. 

I don’t care for EPA or QBR as much as some do (especially here) but there is certainly some standard ESPN uses to calculate QBR. They weight stuff in regards to competition and all of that, but the numbers are largely based on EPA. Their “formula”, which directly leads to the QBR number, is actually unspectacular and only slightly differs from QB EPA.

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7 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

I dont think you read the articles. It looks at passing, rushing, fumbles, it looks at distance and down, air yards.. all of it absolutely contextually subjective, with no trace of any type of standardized baseline formula.

None of those things are subjective. And it does have a formula.

7 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

It correlates to winning because it uses outcomes in it's grading. It says that much in the articles.

It does not use W/L in its grading. This is completely false.

7 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

Sorry fam, you're 110% wrong on this. It is a garbage stat and always has been and always will be. It doesnt correlate to actual quality of qb play.... almost at all.

lol

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8 hours ago, Bearerofnews said:

It looks at passing, rushing, fumbles, it looks at distance and down, air yards.. all of it absolutely contextually subjective.

Since when were any of these stats considered subjective?

 

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16 hours ago, MrnastiesNO said:

You cant say at all. For the most part it does reflect the quality of play. Is it flawed yes. But can you look at it can and tell if a QB played good? 99% of the time yes. It also matches the eye test.

If you took qbr and put it again PR, DVOA, and PFF's grade. I'd bet that the biggest disparity was between QBR vs the others.

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16 hours ago, Yin-Yang said:

I don’t care for EPA or QBR as much as some do (especially here) but there is certainly some standard ESPN uses to calculate QBR. They weight stuff in regards to competition and all of that, but the numbers are largely based on EPA. Their “formula”, which directly leads to the QBR number, is actually unspectacular and only slightly differs from QB EPA.

But its subjective, look at the articles i linked. They accredit EPA subjectively based on their opinion. It's a grading system. Grading systems are typically always subjective credit being appointed to different criterias. Why can no one post a numeric formula for QBR? Because it doesnt exist. Not from anything ive seen. Regardless ill never put any credit into QBR. Ive tracked its results and its the single stat that has the lowest correlation to the other major qb stats. 

They discount stats in "garbage time" (what they perceive as garbage time) or credit wr's for yds or 1st downs, or punish qbs for sacks or fumbles.  I dont see how they can have any type of formula that regulates that weighted credit.

I might be wrong, if so, someone provide the formula. I will never change my mind based off the track record of QBR. Worst stat ive seen for QBs. 

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10 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

None of those things are subjective. And it does have a formula.

So what is the formula?

 

Straight from ESPN.

 

ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

 

that's subjective. 

10 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

It does not use W/L in its grading. This is completely false.

Yes it does, i just posted it from their mouths.

 

"it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties."

 

10 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

lol

This is the hill you want to die on, QBR? 

Just last year had Fitz as 8th best, most others had 19 to 20

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/passing.htm

Keenum 2, Dak 4, Goff 21? In 2017. No stat, that ive ever seen for football, has a bigger disparity sprinkled all over the board. Sure for majority it aligns just about with other stats. But it by far has the biggest head scratchers and no one can explain how.... sounds like a great stat to me.  

Someone break it down for me. What is the formula. If your answer is you dont know, it sucks.

 

Rk Player Tm Age Pos G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR
Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD
1 Carson Wentz* PHI 25 QB 13 13 11-2-0 265 440 60.2 3296 33 7.5 7 1.6 161 72 7.5 8.3 12.4 253.5 101.9 77.2 28 162 6.70 7.43 6.0 1 1
2 Case Keenum MIN 29 QB 15 14 11-3-0 325 481 67.6 3547 22 4.6 7 1.5 180 65 7.4 7.6 10.9 236.5 98.3 74.3 22 136 6.78 7.03 4.4 1 3
3 Tom Brady*+ NWE 40 QB 16 16 13-3-0 385 581 66.3 4577 32 5.5 8 1.4 230 64 7.9 8.4 11.9 286.1 102.8 73.2 35 201 7.10 7.56 5.7 2 2
4 Dak Prescott DAL 24 QB 16 16 9-7-0 308 490 62.9 3324 22 4.5 13 2.7 162 81 6.8 6.5 10.8 207.8 86.6 69.5 32 185 6.01 5.74 6.1 0 4
5 Matt Ryan ATL 32 QB 16 16 10-6-0 342 529 64.7 4095 20 3.8 12 2.3 199 88 7.7 7.5 12.0 255.9 91.4 68.3 24 156 7.12 6.87 4.3 2 3
6 Alex Smith* KAN 33 QB 15 15 9-6-0 341 505 67.5 4042 26 5.1 5 1.0 182 79 8.0 8.6 11.9 269.5 104.7 67.0 35 207 7.10 7.65 6.5 1 3
7 Ben Roethlisberger* PIT 35 QB 15 15 12-3-0 360 561 64.2 4251 28 5.0 14 2.5 203 97 7.6 7.5 11.8 283.4 93.4 66.3 21 139 7.07 6.95 3.6 3 4
8 Matthew Stafford DET 29 QB 16 16 9-7-0 371 565 65.7 4446 29 5.1 10 1.8 210 71 7.9 8.1 12.0 277.9 99.3 65.3 47 287 6.80 7.01 7.7 1 4
9 Drew Brees* NOR 38 QB 16 16 11-5-0 386 536 72.0 4334 23 4.3 8 1.5 203 54 8.1 8.3 11.2 270.9 103.9 64.6 20 145 7.53 7.71 3.6 2 2
10 Aaron Rodgers GNB 34 qb 7 7 4-3-0 154 238 64.7 1675 16 6.7 6 2.5 86 72 7.0 7.2 10.9 239.3 97.2 64.4 22 168 5.80 5.99 8.5 2 2
11 Philip Rivers* LAC 36 QB 16 16 9-7-0 360 575 62.6 4515 28 4.9 10 1.7 217 75 7.9 8.0 12.5 282.2 96.0 64.1 18 120 7.41 7.60 3.0 2 2
12 Russell Wilson* SEA 29 QB 16 16 9-7-0 339 553 61.3 3983 34 6.1 11 2.0 189 74 7.2 7.5 11.7 248.9 95.4 61.7 43 322 6.14 6.45 7.2 2 2
13 Tyrod Taylor BUF 28 QB 15 14 8-6-0 263 420 62.6 2799 14 3.3 4 1.0 133 47 6.7 6.9 10.6 186.6 89.2 60.0 46 256 5.46 5.67 9.9 1 2
14 Josh McCown NYJ 38 QB 13 13 5-8-0 267 397 67.3 2926 18 4.5 9 2.3 137 69 7.4 7.3 11.0 225.1 94.5 60.0 39 264 6.11 6.00 8.9 1 2
15 Blake Bortles JAX 25 QB 16 16 10-6-0 315 523 60.2 3687 21 4.0 13 2.5 195 75 7.0 6.7 11.7 230.4 84.7 59.2 24 123 6.52 6.21 4.4 1 1
16 Marcus Mariota TEN 24 QB 15 15 9-6-0 281 453 62.0 3232 13 2.9 15 3.3 149 75 7.1 6.2 11.5 215.5 79.3 58.8 27 173 6.37 5.51 5.6 3 4
17 Kirk Cousins WAS 29 QB 16 16 7-9-0 347 540 64.3 4093 27 5.0 13 2.4 194 74 7.6 7.5 11.8 255.8 93.9 54.2 41 342 6.46 6.38 7.1 1 4
18 Jameis Winston TAM 23 QB 13 13 3-10-0 282 442 63.8 3504 19 4.3 11 2.5 185 70 7.9 7.7 12.4 269.5 92.2 54.0 33 207 6.94 6.70 6.9 2 2
19 Cam Newton CAR 28 QB 16 16 11-5-0 291 492 59.1 3302 22 4.5 16 3.3 167 64 6.7 6.1 11.3 206.4 80.7 53.3 35 242 5.81 5.28 6.6 1 3
20 Carson Palmer ARI 38 qb 7 7 3-4-0 164 267 61.4 1978 9 3.4 7 2.6 95 46 7.4 6.9 12.1 282.6 84.4 52.5 22 150 6.33 5.86 7.6 2 2
21 Jared Goff* LAR 23 QB 15 15 11-4-0 296 477 62.1 3804 28 5.9 7 1.5 177 94 8.0 8.5 12.9 253.6 100.5 52.1 25 172 7.24 7.72 5.0 1 1
22 Derek Carr* OAK 26 QB 15 15 6-9-0 323 515 62.7 3496 22 4.3 13 2.5 168 87 6.8 6.5 10.8 233.1 86.4 51.0 20 101 6.35 6.07 3.7 1 1
23 Joe Flacco BAL 32 QB 16 16 9-7-0 352 549 64.1 3141 18 3.3 13 2.4 163 66 5.7 5.3 8.9 196.3 80.4 49.8 27
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3 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

So what is the formula?

Are you not reading anything I have posted???????

NO ONE KNOWS THE FORMULA. THEY HAVE NEVER MADE IT PUBLIC

3 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Straight from ESPN.

 

ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency.

 

that's subjective. 

No, its not. Its a measurement of a QBs play relative to how likely it is to contribute to a teams win. So throwing for 9 years on 3rd and 10 is worth less than rushing for 5 on 3rd and 4. 

3 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Yes it does, i just posted it from their mouths.

You are misinterpreting what is stated. I cant tell if its on purpose or you just dont understand what that sentence means.

3 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

"it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties."

I suggest you read it again.

3 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

This is the hill you want to die on, QBR? 

Just last year had Fitz as 8th best, most others had 19 to 20

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/passing.htm

Keenum 2, Dak 4, Goff 21? In 2017. No stat, that ive ever seen for football, has a bigger disparity sprinkled all over the board. Sure for majority it aligns just about with other stats. But it by far has the biggest head scratchers and no one can explain how.... sounds like a great stat to me.  

Someone break it down for me. What is the formula. If your answer is you dont know, it sucks.

 

Rk Player Tm Age Pos G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% 1D Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR
Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD
1 Carson Wentz* PHI 25 QB 13 13 11-2-0 265 440 60.2 3296 33 7.5 7 1.6 161 72 7.5 8.3 12.4 253.5 101.9 77.2 28 162 6.70 7.43 6.0 1 1
2 Case Keenum MIN 29 QB 15 14 11-3-0 325 481 67.6 3547 22 4.6 7 1.5 180 65 7.4 7.6 10.9 236.5 98.3 74.3 22 136 6.78 7.03 4.4 1 3
3 Tom Brady*+ NWE 40 QB 16 16 13-3-0 385 581 66.3 4577 32 5.5 8 1.4 230 64 7.9 8.4 11.9 286.1 102.8 73.2 35 201 7.10 7.56 5.7 2 2
4 Dak Prescott DAL 24 QB 16 16 9-7-0 308 490 62.9 3324 22 4.5 13 2.7 162 81 6.8 6.5 10.8 207.8 86.6 69.5 32 185 6.01 5.74 6.1 0 4
5 Matt Ryan ATL 32 QB 16 16 10-6-0 342 529 64.7 4095 20 3.8 12 2.3 199 88 7.7 7.5 12.0 255.9 91.4 68.3 24 156 7.12 6.87 4.3 2 3
6 Alex Smith* KAN 33 QB 15 15 9-6-0 341 505 67.5 4042 26 5.1 5 1.0 182 79 8.0 8.6 11.9 269.5 104.7 67.0 35 207 7.10 7.65 6.5 1 3
7 Ben Roethlisberger* PIT 35 QB 15 15 12-3-0 360 561 64.2 4251 28 5.0 14 2.5 203 97 7.6 7.5 11.8 283.4 93.4 66.3 21 139 7.07 6.95 3.6 3 4
8 Matthew Stafford DET 29 QB 16 16 9-7-0 371 565 65.7 4446 29 5.1 10 1.8 210 71 7.9 8.1 12.0 277.9 99.3 65.3 47 287 6.80 7.01 7.7 1 4
9 Drew Brees* NOR 38 QB 16 16 11-5-0 386 536 72.0 4334 23 4.3 8 1.5 203 54 8.1 8.3 11.2 270.9 103.9 64.6 20 145 7.53 7.71 3.6 2 2
10 Aaron Rodgers GNB 34 qb 7 7 4-3-0 154 238 64.7 1675 16 6.7 6 2.5 86 72 7.0 7.2 10.9 239.3 97.2 64.4 22 168 5.80 5.99 8.5 2 2
11 Philip Rivers* LAC 36 QB 16 16 9-7-0 360 575 62.6 4515 28 4.9 10 1.7 217 75 7.9 8.0 12.5 282.2 96.0 64.1 18 120 7.41 7.60 3.0 2 2
12 Russell Wilson* SEA 29 QB 16 16 9-7-0 339 553 61.3 3983 34 6.1 11 2.0 189 74 7.2 7.5 11.7 248.9 95.4 61.7 43 322 6.14 6.45 7.2 2 2
13 Tyrod Taylor BUF 28 QB 15 14 8-6-0 263 420 62.6 2799 14 3.3 4 1.0 133 47 6.7 6.9 10.6 186.6 89.2 60.0 46 256 5.46 5.67 9.9 1 2
14 Josh McCown NYJ 38 QB 13 13 5-8-0 267 397 67.3 2926 18 4.5 9 2.3 137 69 7.4 7.3 11.0 225.1 94.5 60.0 39 264 6.11 6.00 8.9 1 2
15 Blake Bortles JAX 25 QB 16 16 10-6-0 315 523 60.2 3687 21 4.0 13 2.5 195 75 7.0 6.7 11.7 230.4 84.7 59.2 24 123 6.52 6.21 4.4 1 1
16 Marcus Mariota TEN 24 QB 15 15 9-6-0 281 453 62.0 3232 13 2.9 15 3.3 149 75 7.1 6.2 11.5 215.5 79.3 58.8 27 173 6.37 5.51 5.6 3 4
17 Kirk Cousins WAS 29 QB 16 16 7-9-0 347 540 64.3 4093 27 5.0 13 2.4 194 74 7.6 7.5 11.8 255.8 93.9 54.2 41 342 6.46 6.38 7.1 1 4
18 Jameis Winston TAM 23 QB 13 13 3-10-0 282 442 63.8 3504 19 4.3 11 2.5 185 70 7.9 7.7 12.4 269.5 92.2 54.0 33 207 6.94 6.70 6.9 2 2
19 Cam Newton CAR 28 QB 16 16 11-5-0 291 492 59.1 3302 22 4.5 16 3.3 167 64 6.7 6.1 11.3 206.4 80.7 53.3 35 242 5.81 5.28 6.6 1 3
20 Carson Palmer ARI 38 qb 7 7 3-4-0 164 267 61.4 1978 9 3.4 7 2.6 95 46 7.4 6.9 12.1 282.6 84.4 52.5 22 150 6.33 5.86 7.6 2 2
21 Jared Goff* LAR 23 QB 15 15 11-4-0 296 477 62.1 3804 28 5.9 7 1.5 177 94 8.0 8.5 12.9 253.6 100.5 52.1 25 172 7.24 7.72 5.0 1 1
22 Derek Carr* OAK 26 QB 15 15 6-9-0 323 515 62.7 3496 22 4.3 13 2.5 168 87 6.8 6.5 10.8 233.1 86.4 51.0 20 101 6.35 6.07 3.7 1 1
23 Joe Flacco BAL 32 QB 16 16 9-7-0 352 549 64.1 3141 18 3.3 13 2.4 163 66 5.7 5.3 8.9 196.3 80.4 49.8 27

This entire post reads as you are purposely going into this close minded and hard headed. So I will leave it at this:

You are wrong. 

The end. 

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4 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Are you not reading anything I have posted???????

NO ONE KNOWS THE FORMULA. THEY HAVE NEVER MADE IT PUBLIC

So..... then there is no formula.

4 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

No, its not. Its a measurement of a QBs play relative to how likely it is to contribute to a teams win. So throwing for 9 years on 3rd and 10 is worth less than rushing for 5 on 3rd and 4. 

And how do you measure "how likely" a probability is with numbers. How do you measure who gets credit for a 30 yd pass. How do you distribute credit for whos fault a fumble is; oline or qb, or a sack. They give more credit for a 5 yd run in the 4th qtr for a td from a qb than a 45 yd air pass for 1st down in the 1st qtr. This..... is..... wait for it. SUBJECTIVE. Id love to see the formula that does that 🤣 and i swear if anyone on here tells me the formula does that im rioting.

4 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

You are misinterpreting what is stated. I cant tell if its on purpose or you just dont understand what that sentence means.

I suggest you read it again.

Nope, you are. I dont think you read it.

4 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

This entire post reads as you are purposely going into this close minded and hard headed. So I will leave it at this:

You are wrong. 

The end. 

The entire post reads you saying "nope you are wrong" but ignoring their own words, not providing any evidence of a numeric based formula, etc.

Plain and simple, the stat sucks and should be the last stat used for judging qbs.  When it's skip bayless go to stat, ya know it sucks.

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36 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

But its subjective, look at the articles i linked. They accredit EPA subjectively based on their opinion. It's a grading system. Grading systems are typically always subjective credit being appointed to different criterias. Why can no one post a numeric formula for QBR? Because it doesnt exist. Not from anything ive seen. Regardless ill never put any credit into QBR. Ive tracked its results and its the single stat that has the lowest correlation to the other major qb stats. 

They discount stats in "garbage time" (what they perceive as garbage time) or credit wr's for yds or 1st downs, or punish qbs for sacks or fumbles.  I dont see how they can have any type of formula that regulates that weighted credit.

I might be wrong, if so, someone provide the formula. I will never change my mind based off the track record of QBR. Worst stat ive seen for QBs. 

They don’t attribute is subjectively. They use EPA across the board, but do use other subjective terms to weight their numbers (positively or negatively). So in that sense, yes, it’s subjective what they do, but the way they use EPA is not subjective at all.  That’s the only point I was making in response to your comment that said “no trace of a standardized formula”. There’s certainly some standard value that they use in there. 

I don’t care for it anymore than I do PFF grades. I’m not defending it as the best number you can put out there for a QB. Just saying it A) does have a semblance of a standard, and B) is pretty much just EPA.

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43 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

So..... then there is no formula.

I have a client from England. Brilliant. He was recruited by Apple. It took 6 months for each security level access upgrade. Over 2 years before he was able to do the job he was hired for. Companies go to extreme lengths to keep their secrets.... secret.

Just because we dont know the formula doesnt meant there isnt one. 

43 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

And how do you measure "how likely" a probability is with numbers. How do you measure who gets credit for a 30 yd pass. How do you distribute credit for whos fault a fumble is; oline or qb, or a sack. They give more credit for a 5 yd run in the 4th qtr for a td from a qb than a 45 yd air pass for 1st down in the 1st qtr. This..... is..... wait for it. SUBJECTIVE. Id love to see the formula that does that 🤣 and i swear if anyone on here tells me the formula does that im rioting.

Nope. This is all wrong. 

43 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

Nope, you are. I dont think you read it.

You need to read more thoroughly.Contribution to winning =/= Winning

43 minutes ago, Bearerofnews said:

The entire post reads you saying "nope you are wrong" but ignoring their own words, not providing any evidence of a numeric based formula, etc.

Plain and simple, the stat sucks and should be the last stat used for judging qbs.  When it's skip bayless go to stat, ya know it sucks.

In your own example you had to reach the 14th QB before there was a losing record. Dude you are just wrong. 

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5 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

I have a client from England. Brilliant. He was recruited by Apple. It took 6 months for each security level access upgrade. Over 2 years before he was able to do the job he was hired for. Companies go to extreme lengths to keep their secrets.... secret.

Just because we dont know the formula doesnt meant there isnt one. 

Nope. This is all wrong. 

You need to read more thoroughly.Contribution to winning =/= Winning

In your own example you had to reach the 14th QB before there was a losing record. Dude you are just wrong. 

You're right, QBR is a good accurate stat..... that you'll never reference when rating seasonal qb performances.. but, yup you are right. In the spirit of social distancing, imma have to walk away.

(ps you're wrong, i am right)

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