Draft clouds

[Epyon]

It's early, and we haven't even had the senior bowl yet, but looking at the draft right now my cloud for our first pick is:

27ish+ If he fell this far, I start looking to try and trade up for Linderbaum-C...... It's not completely impossible, as even if he's the best C prospect in a decade, being drafted top 15 makes him a top 5 paid Center as an unproven rookie, so I'm still not convinced he goes that early.... That said, it's still a massive gap from 15+ all the way down to 39, and even if he was available, I doubt we have the capital to go get him regardless...... Mostly a pipe dream, but worth mentioning.... I don't have any other players on my board I see worth trading up for yet.


2.39 Right now my current cloud of players goes something like Pickens-WR = Jahan Dotson-WR > Daniele Faalele-RT > Burks-WR > Elam-CB > Dean-MLB

In the BPA world, Dean would probably be the top guy, but we gotta get weapons for Fields. Pickens and Dotson I think are both gonna be good, but they're different types of WR so a bit depends on what we can do in FA and/or what kind of scheme/personnel we want to run...

Pickens-WR has the acl to check on, but he played well in the nat championship game and is the bigger body guy but still fast and a good route runner. He's a more traditional WR.... and kind of a middle ground between what we have now in Mooney and what we had when ARob actually cared.

Dotson-WR I see as similar to Mooney, but shiftier, a poor man's tyreek hill maybe?... A bit on the smaller side, but he has great hands, legitimate track speed, and probably soaks up the manufactured touches that Cohen used to get in the WR screen/reverse game. I think this kid can be a star, but already having a smaller guy with Mooney, Dotson might be harder to utilize.

Faalele-RT This guy is gargantuan, and I actually wanted him last year, then he returned to school. 6ft8in 380-400lbs, but moves better than most guys who are 300lbs. Samoan freak of nature. He's a one trick pony at RT, however, so it will require some line shifting. Borom/Jenkins can fight over LT and the loser will kick into guard for the starting OL (while being the swing tackle backup), I'm pushing either Daniels or Whitehair to Center, but will draft competition for the spot as well.. Mustipher simply sucks too much to be allowed to stay on the field. As for Faalele, good lord if this guy puts his hands on you, you are done. And he's got fairly ludicrous strength and mass to push with.

Burks-WR.... I don't think he drops this far, but I also think he's being kind of overrated right now.... He's a poor man's DK Metcalf/Chase Claypool both of which went later in the draft..... a giant freak of nature receiver who has no business being anywhere near athletic/fast he is at the size he is.... That said, I value WR who can run routes, and Pickens and Dotson are both really damn good route runners. I think Burks is a lot more limited in that regard, while not being quite the freak of nature that Claypool/Metcalf where.


Elam-CB and Dean-MLB are just defensive positions of need, and both really talented guys.... Dean will almost assuredly be off the board, but him and Roquan would lock down the inside for a generation. Elam, otoh checks all the boxes at corner, and we need someone who doesn't suck opposite Johnson. They're both still at the bottom of my cloud because my priority is fixing the offense this season, and getting the tools to properly gauge what we have in Fields requires that we eliminate any excuses he might have regarding weapons and/or OL play.

 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Epyon

[beardown3231]

There's already a draft thread

Dean will be gone in the top 20. I like London or Pickens at 39

[AZBearsFan]

4 hours ago, Epyon said:

Dotson-WR I see as similar to Mooney, but shiftier, a poor man's tyreek hill maybe?... A bit on the smaller side, but he has great hands, legitimate track speed, and probably soaks up the manufactured touches that Cohen used to get in the WR screen/reverse game. I think this kid can be a star, but already having a smaller guy with Mooney, Dotson might be harder to utilize.

I want to see true measurements on all of these guys. Dotson is listed at 5”11” 184. That’s pretty average size-wise, but I don’t see him being not a big guy making him “harder to utilize”. There are teams that don’t have a traditional “big” WR as a primary guy any more. BUF’s biggest WR in their top 3 is Diggs (6’0” 191). In KC they have Hill and Hardman who are both 5’10” or smaller. Pringle and Robinson are both listed at 6’1” 200 which isn’t “big” per se. They have some size elsewhere, but so do we. 

I would also prefer to have a little more size in our top 3 WR but really what is needed IMO isn’t so much for the WR to be freakishly large or tall so much as physical at the point of attack. Having a “bigger” WR doesn’t necessarily mean they play big. DJ Chark and Marques Valdes-Scantling for instance are both 6’4” and I wouldn’t say either plays like a big WR. (I like both, in very different tiers, as potential adds for us in a vertical based passing attack btw).

My thoughts about size aren’t specifically about Dotson, though I do like him quite a bit. As to Treylon Burks, I agree he’s a less refined product than some of the other top WRs, but he’s a weapon. You made comps to DK and Claypool for him which I think are fair, and even a few years in neither of those guys gives you everything you’d want route running wise, but both are big time weapons that would absolutely enhance our passing game. I think Claypool will absolutely take off next year once he can get away from the decaying remains of Ben Roethlisberger. I think Burks fits that same mold incredibly well, and I’m hoping (but skeptical) that he has a similar slide to round 2 where we can get him at 39.

[GBHalas]

When it comes to receivers in the draft I'm looking at three different receivers not anyone's radar yet,  Christian Watson,  Jalen Nailor, and Khalil Shakir. They're all game changers and could help immediately

[beardown3231]

9 minutes ago, GBHalas said:

When it comes to receivers in the draft I'm looking at three different receivers not anyone's radar yet,  Christian Watson,  Jalen Nailor, and Khalil Shakir. They're all game changers and could help immediately

Watson is on my radar

[GBHalas]

51 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

Watson is on my radar

I'm afraid he gonna shoot up the boards after the combine.  Nailor will also but hopefully he'll be around our pick in the 3rd.  Shakir might be there in the 5th. In reality this is a good deep draft for receive

[AZBearsFan]

7 hours ago, GBHalas said:

When it comes to receivers in the draft I'm looking at three different receivers not anyone's radar yet,  Christian Watson,  Jalen Nailor, and Khalil Shakir. They're all game changers and could help immediately

I think expecting Watson to come from NDST and “help immediately” is probably a bit heavy handed. I like him too but even with a GREAT combine he’s almost surely gonna be in the bottom half of the draft. I like him as a 2nd WR pick if we double up there or if we sign at least 2 clear 2022 starting WR in FA though. 

[GBHalas]

42 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I think expecting Watson to come from NDST and “help immediately” is probably a bit heavy handed. I like him too but even with a GREAT combine he’s almost surely gonna be in the bottom half of the draft. I like him as a 2nd WR pick if we double up there or if we sign at least 2 clear 2022 starting WR in FA though. 

I think with watson and Nailor they immediately help as deep threats and with the Bears more than likely grabbing a FA receiver they won't be required to run a full route tree quite as early

[AZBearsFan]

7 minutes ago, GBHalas said:

I think with watson and Nailor they immediately help as deep threats and with the Bears more than likely grabbing a FA receiver they won't be required to run a full route tree quite as early

So by immediate impact you’re talking more like a WR4 role then? I could see that.

Is Watson at the Senior Bowl? I’d love to see him against higher level competition. 

[Epyon]

12 hours ago, GBHalas said:

When it comes to receivers in the draft I'm looking at three different receivers not anyone's radar yet,  Christian Watson,  Jalen Nailor, and Khalil Shakir. They're all game changers and could help immediately

Well for this cloud thing I was basically only looking at players that could/should be there at 39 or (in Linderbaum's case) have a slim chance of being trade up targets if they fell...

As for WR a bit later I'd look at:

Sky Moore-3rd

Calvin Austin III  3rd-4th

Alex Pierce  3rd-4th

Romeo Dobbs 3rd-4th

I'd be shocked if Moore or Austin weren't 2 of the fastest guys in the entire draft class, both are track stars.... Moore is from a smaller school W. Mich but has a bit more size too him,  Austin is more of a  Tarik Cohen with more speed and less agilty type mighty mouse WR.

Dobbs and Pierce are both guys with decent size and good speed, I've come around on both a bit the more I watch.

I'd be happy with any of them (Watson is also interesting in that range), depending on who we bring in for FA and what kind of scheme we're intending to run. The speed matchup nightmares we'd be capable of with any 2 of Dotson/Moore/Austin combined with Mooney would be ludicrous... Mooney would likely be the slowest guy on the field with a 4.38

[GBHalas]

5 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

So by immediate impact you’re talking more like a WR4 role then? I could see that.

Is Watson at the Senior Bowl? I’d love to see him against higher level competition. 

He's playing on the National Team, so that will be interesting to watch.

[GBHalas]

47 minutes ago, Epyon said:

Well for this cloud thing I was basically only looking at players that could/should be there at 39 or (in Linderbaum's case) have a slim chance of being trade up targets if they fell...

As for WR a bit later I'd look at:

Sky Moore-3rd

Calvin Austin III  3rd-4th

Alex Pierce  3rd-4th

Romeo Dobbs 3rd-4th

I'd be shocked if Moore or Austin weren't 2 of the fastest guys in the entire draft class, both are track stars.... Moore is from a smaller school W. Mich but has a bit more size too him,  Austin is more of a  Tarik Cohen with more speed and less agilty type mighty mouse WR.

Dobbs and Pierce are both guys with decent size and good speed, I've come around on both a bit the more I watch.

I'd be happy with any of them (Watson is also interesting in that range), depending on who we bring in for FA and what kind of scheme we're intending to run. The speed matchup nightmares we'd be capable of with any 2 of Dotson/Moore/Austin combined with Mooney would be ludicrous... Mooney would likely be the slowest guy on the field with a 4.38

As far as what I'm hoping for at 39, you have to check the medicals on the Alabama receivers, but if not them, and depending on the coach's scheme I wouldn't mind taking another CB (McDuffie, McCreary, or Elam).  Also would look to trade down a little and focus on a guard (Rhyan from UCLA, Johnson from BC, but my favorite interior guy is Ed Ingram from LSU).  If you select a guard there, you could move Whitehair back to C and have potentially a good offensive line to protect your franchise QB.

[AZBearsFan]

4 minutes ago, GBHalas said:

As far as what I'm hoping for at 39, you have to check the medicals on the Alabama receivers, but if not them, and depending on the coach's scheme I wouldn't mind taking another CB (McDuffie, McCreary, or Elam).  Also would look to trade down a little and focus on a guard (Rhyan from UCLA, Johnson from BC, but my favorite interior guy is Ed Ingram from LSU).  If you select a guard there, you could move Whitehair back to C and have potentially a good offensive line to protect your franchise QB.

What happens at 39 will have an obvious impact depending on what we do in FA. If we sign a young starting boundary corner in FA we probably aren’t going CB at 39. Same probably goes for G. WR I could see being an exception to that since we have so little there already with just Mooney and Dazz under contract.

I think it would make a lot of sense to go heavy offense in pre-draft FA to give Fields more of a sure thing to work with along with a stop gap starter type CB signing, and then look for the more permanent replacement at CB in round 2 or 3. I’m a fan of several of the corners likely there in that range. I really wish we had gotten a more complete look at Graham down the stretch. It’s borderline criminal that we learned so little about what we have there so we could see more of Artie ******* Burns and Marqui ******* Christian. 🤬 

[GBHalas]

Just now, AZBearsFan said:

What happens at 39 will have an obvious impact depending on what we do in FA. If we sign a young starting boundary corner in FA we probably aren’t going CB at 39. Same probably goes for G. WR I could see being an exception to that since we have so little there already with just Mooney and Dazz under contract.

I think it would make a lot of sense to go heavy offense in pre-draft FA to give Fields more of a sure thing to work with along with a stop gap starter type CB signing, and then look for the more permanent replacement at CB in round 2 or 3. I’m a fan of several of the corners likely there in that range. I really wish we had gotten a more complete look at Graham down the stretch. It’s borderline criminal that we learned so little about what we have there so we could see more of Artie ******* Burns and Marqui ******* Christian. 🤬 

I thought about a FA guard, but signing a guard and Daniels would be costly especially considering Whitehair's salary.  Drafting a plug and play guard might be a better idea.  i completely agree with you it was almost criminal that Graham didn't get a longer look down the stretch, along with Borom and Jenkins.  Instead four guys who might not be in the league next year got useless playing time.

[AZBearsFan]

10 hours ago, GBHalas said:

I thought about a FA guard, but signing a guard and Daniels would be costly especially considering Whitehair's salary.  Drafting a plug and play guard might be a better idea.  i completely agree with you it was almost criminal that Graham didn't get a longer look down the stretch, along with Borom and Jenkins.  Instead four guys who might not be in the league next year got useless playing time.

I’d like to see us go big on OL in FA. Reinvent the whole damn thing. Give me Eric Fisher, Alex Cappa AND Bradley Bozeman. Borom becomes the swing tackle and potentially the long term LT, Jenkins goes to RT where he probably should be. Whole line gets a lot more credible in a hurry. Whitehair likely returns at least mostly to form when not flanked by a 40-year old and a bum. The offset from this is not being able to spend BIG at WR or CB, but we can still add capable vets there in FA with what will be left, and also the draft is deep at both positions for a longer term answer.

Spitballing here: 

Fisher 3/30 (7/10/13)

Cappa 5/48 (6/8/10/12/12)

Bozeman 5/55 (6/10/12/13/14)

Russell Gage 4/34 (5/9/9/11)

Zay Jones 2/6 (2.5/3.5)

Ahkello Witherspoon 2/9 (4/5)

I figure we can get to about $52M in cap space with obvious cuts and a likely Roquan extension. The numbers are ballpark here but that’s $30.5M in 2022 cap hits which still gives room for depth signings elsewhere, our draft picks and in-season flexibility. From there go WR round 2 with Pickens/Metchie/Bell/Dotson and CB in round 3 and you’re off and running, have a long term viable OL (Whitehair upgrade needed next offseason or the one after) and have veteran capable WR options to pair with a high upside rookie and Mooney.

It’s not gonna be everyone’s way to go, but building up a strong OL is never a bad place to start IMO.