OzPackfan off-season mock

[OzPackfan]

Given all the intrigue over what the Packers off season looks like, I thought I’d have a crack at putting together what I think may eventuate.

Small disclaimer, As a fan from Australia, I don’t get to see as much college football so my draft may not be perfect.

Pre Free Agency:

Packers make the following moves:

Agree to trade Rodgers to Denver in return for Picks 9 and 90 in 2022 and a 1st round pick in 2023

Trade Z’Darius Smith to Miami in return for pick 92 in 2022

Re-sign Davante Adams on a 3 year 82.5m deal

Re-sign De’Vondre Campbell on a 2 year 22m deal

Re-sign Rasul Douglas on a 2 year 13m deal

Re-sign MVS on a 2 year 11m deal

Re-sign Robert Tonyan on a 1 year 6m deal

Extend Jaire Alexander on a 4 year 77m deal

Extend Preston Smith on a 2 year 30m deal

Restructre contracts of Bahktiari, Clark, Jones, Amos and Lowry

Cut Randall Cobb and Billy Turner

Re-sign all ERFA’s (Hanson, Rivers, Ramsey, Taylor, Dafney, Black, Nijman, Barnes)

Place ROFR RFA tender on Allen Lazard

Free Agency:

The above moves do enough to get us under the cap by around 10m so not enough to spend in free agency

2022 NFL Draft:

Pick 9 - Jordan Davis DL (Georgia)

Pick 32 - Garrett Wilson WR (Ohio State)

Pick 64 - Jackson Kirkland OT (Washington)

Pick 90 - Coby Bryant CB (Cincinnati)

Pick 92 - Quay Walker LB (Georgia)

Pick 96 - Jeremy Ruckert TE (Ohio State)

Pick 133 - Andrew Stueber OT (Michigan)

Pick 137 - Jermaine Waller CB (Virginia Tech)

Pick 173 - Tycen Anderson S ( Toledo)

Pick 224 - Jalen Nailor WR (Michigan State)

Pick 249 - Ben Stille OLB (Nebraska)

Pick 255 - Dominique Robinson OLB (Miami OH)

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, OzPackfan said:

Trade Z’Darius Smith to Miami in return for pick 92 in 2022

Za'Darius Smith simply doesn't have this kind of trade value.  Any team acquiring him is on the books for $15M next year, and he hasn't played a single game this year.  Safe to say, there's no value whatsoever with regards to Z.

1 hour ago, OzPackfan said:

Pick 9 - Jordan Davis DL (Georgia)

If the Packers get a top 10 pick for Aaron Rodgers and they use it on a 2-down lineman, I might riot.

[OzPackfan]

11 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Za'Darius Smith simply doesn't have this kind of trade value.  Any team acquiring him is on the books for $15M next year, and he hasn't played a single game this year.  Safe to say, there's no value whatsoever with regards to Z.

Can see what you are saying but if he plays in the playoffs and shows anywhere near the form he had the last 2 years then there will be some sort of trade market. Cap wise it’s very likely that to bring back Adams, Douglas, Campbell, MVS either Preston or Z needs to be moved on. 

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

If the Packers get a top 10 pick for Aaron Rodgers and they use it on a 2-down lineman, I might riot.

As for this, the problem is that at pick 9 you are either picking a 2 down lineman who can help strengthen the teams defence against the run game or you are reaching for another position/player.

If Williams hadn’t done his ACL during the National championship game then he would have been in play at that position but it’s way too risky to select him at 9

[spilltray]

A 2 down lineman is inherently a reach. There is no value to a DL that's not a pass rusher. The run D just isn't that important. There HAS to be better value than that.

[pgwingman]

10 hours ago, OzPackfan said:

Small disclaimer, As a fan from Australia, I don’t get to see as much college football so my draft may not be perfect.

Don't worry, you don't have to be from America to have bad football takes, are all welcome here

Pre Free Agency:

Packers make the following moves:

Agree to trade Rodgers to Denver in return for Picks 9 and 90 in 2022 and a 1st round pick in 2023 ($20m saved)

Trade Z’Darius Smith to Miami in return for pick 92 in 2022 ($16m saved)

Re-sign Davante Adams on a 3 year 82.5m deal ($20m spent)

Re-sign De’Vondre Campbell on a 2 year 22m deal ($11m spent)

Re-sign Rasul Douglas on a 2 year 13m deal ($6.5m spent)

Re-sign MVS on a 2 year 11m deal ($5.5m spent)

Re-sign Robert Tonyan on a 1 year 6m deal ($6m spent)

Extend Jaire Alexander on a 4 year 77m deal ($6m saved)

Extend Preston Smith on a 2 year 30m deal ($8m saved)

Restructre contracts of Bahktiari, Clark, Jones, Amos and Lowry ($20m saved)

Cut Randall Cobb and Billy Turner($7m + $4m saved)

Re-sign all ERFA’s (Hanson, Rivers, Ramsey, Taylor, Dafney, Black, Nijman, Barnes)

Place ROFR RFA tender on Allen Lazard ($2.4m spent)

Free Agency:

The above moves do enough to get us under the cap by around 10m so not enough to spend in free agency

So a couple of comments. I've been working on my mock, so I used my assumed values in a few spots to estimate the cost or savings where you don't explicitly state it. Feel free to tell me why any of my numbers in red are wrong.

That being said, when I add up those numbers I still have us at -$1.6m, and that doesn't factor the $39m that we're already over the cap, plus the other $20m+ we need for the draft class, practice squad, ERFA signings, in season piggy bank, or whatever. I just don't see where the money is coming from.

On another note, I don't think you've valued Lazard high enough. I think we place a second round tender on him. Tim Patrick was my closest comparison based on production, and he got that last offseason, so I would think he fetches the same. If you tender him an ROFR offer, I would think a lot of teams would be willing to spend $5m or more to get him, and we'd be left with nothing.

I don't have many comments on the draft, other than it seems strange to draft another CB when you already have Rasul, Alexander, and Stokes under contract. 

[CWood21]

10 hours ago, OzPackfan said:

Can see what you are saying but if he plays in the playoffs and shows anywhere near the form he had the last 2 years then there will be some sort of trade market. Cap wise it’s very likely that to bring back Adams, Douglas, Campbell, MVS either Preston or Z needs to be moved on. 

Even if Z looks as good as he did in the previous years in his playoff games (which is unlikely), he's still got a massive cap hit with no production in 2021 right now.  That's simply not a valuable commodity no matter how good he looks in a potential playoff run.  At this point, it's more likely that the Packers would have to attach a pick to trade Z then for a team to give up anything of value for him.  But since it costs the same whether the Packers trade him or release him, the Packers aren't going to attach a draft pick onto him.

10 hours ago, OzPackfan said:

As for this, the problem is that at pick 9 you are either picking a 2 down lineman who can help strengthen the teams defence against the run game or you are reaching for another position/player.

If Williams hadn’t done his ACL during the National championship game then he would have been in play at that position but it’s way too risky to select him at 9

That's implying that Jordan Davis BVA, which I'd argue pretty easily he's not in a tier himself.  I'd argue there's four (maybe) five blue chip prospects in the draft Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson, Evan Neal, and Derek Stingley.  I think Kyle Hamilton is an elite prospect, but I think you need a defense where he can be a star and not someone like Adrian Amos (which isn't a knock btw).  I haven't seen enough of Ikem Ekwonu to know if he's in that top tier, or if he's in that next tier.  That second tier is guys like George Karlaftis, David Ojabo, Tyler Linderbaum, etc.  I'm just not a fan of taking skill position early in the draft unless you're looking at a guy like a JaMarr Chase or Adrian Peterson where you're pretty confident they're going to be an elite position player.

[StatKing]

13 hours ago, OzPackfan said:

Given all the intrigue over what the Packers off season looks like, I thought I’d have a crack at putting together what I think may eventuate.

Small disclaimer, As a fan from Australia, I don’t get to see as much college football so my draft may not be perfect.

Pre Free Agency:

Packers make the following moves:

Agree to trade Rodgers to Denver in return for Picks 9 and 90 in 2022 and a 1st round pick in 2023

Trade Z’Darius Smith to Miami in return for pick 92 in 2022

Re-sign Davante Adams on a 3 year 82.5m deal

Re-sign De’Vondre Campbell on a 2 year 22m deal

Re-sign Rasul Douglas on a 2 year 13m deal

Re-sign MVS on a 2 year 11m deal

Re-sign Robert Tonyan on a 1 year 6m deal

Extend Jaire Alexander on a 4 year 77m deal

Extend Preston Smith on a 2 year 30m deal

Restructre contracts of Bahktiari, Clark, Jones, Amos and Lowry

Cut Randall Cobb and Billy Turner

Re-sign all ERFA’s (Hanson, Rivers, Ramsey, Taylor, Dafney, Black, Nijman, Barnes)

Place ROFR RFA tender on Allen Lazard

Free Agency:

The above moves do enough to get us under the cap by around 10m so not enough to spend in free agency

2022 NFL Draft:

Pick 9 - Jordan Davis DL (Georgia)

Pick 32 - Garrett Wilson WR (Ohio State)

Pick 64 - Jackson Kirkland OT (Washington)

Pick 90 - Coby Bryant CB (Cincinnati)

Pick 92 - Quay Walker LB (Georgia)

Pick 96 - Jeremy Ruckert TE (Ohio State)

Pick 133 - Andrew Stueber OT (Michigan)

Pick 137 - Jermaine Waller CB (Virginia Tech)

Pick 173 - Tycen Anderson S ( Toledo)

Pick 224 - Jalen Nailor WR (Michigan State)

Pick 249 - Ben Stille OLB (Nebraska)

Pick 255 - Dominique Robinson OLB (Miami OH)

Adams is going to want more than a 3 year deal. Dudes gonna get that bag. No way he settles for less than a 100 million on his next contract.

[OzPackfan]

5 hours ago, pgwingman said:

So a couple of comments. I've been working on my mock, so I used my assumed values in a few spots to estimate the cost or savings where you don't explicitly state it. Feel free to tell me why any of my numbers in red are wrong.

That being said, when I add up those numbers I still have us at -$1.6m, and that doesn't factor the $39m that we're already over the cap, plus the other $20m+ we need for the draft class, practice squad, ERFA signings, in season piggy bank, or whatever. I just don't see where the money is coming from.

On another note, I don't think you've valued Lazard high enough. I think we place a second round tender on him. Tim Patrick was my closest comparison based on production, and he got that last offseason, so I would think he fetches the same. If you tender him an ROFR offer, I would think a lot of teams would be willing to spend $5m or more to get him, and we'd be left with nothing.

I don't have many comments on the draft, other than it seems strange to draft another CB when you already have Rasul, Alexander, and Stokes under contract. 

My numbers were factoring in most if not all new contracts will have void years to spread the cost out. 
 

Yes we are over the cap considerably for next year but we have around 117m to work with in 2023 so some can be pushed back without hurting the team overall (that’s if Rodgers leaves).
 

As for the Lazard situation, yes he is a great run blocking WR but he has never really put up large numbers in the passing game consistently. The 2nd round tender is worth another 1.5m which I’m not sure can be justified given the cap situation 

Re the CB’s, we would have Alexander, Stokes, Douglas and SJC. Getting more depth and players that could possibly help improve ST can’t be a bad thing

[OzPackfan]

3 hours ago, StatKing said:

Adams is going to want more than a 3 year deal. Dudes gonna get that bag. No way he settles for less than a 100 million on his next contract.

Yeah on the free market he may but 3 more years in Green Bay would allow him to then hit free agency again at 32 and get another big pay day. 

[OzPackfan]

4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Even if Z looks as good as he did in the previous years in his playoff games (which is unlikely), he's still got a massive cap hit with no production in 2021 right now.  That's simply not a valuable commodity no matter how good he looks in a potential playoff run.  At this point, it's more likely that the Packers would have to attach a pick to trade Z then for a team to give up anything of value for him.  But since it costs the same whether the Packers trade him or release him, the Packers aren't going to attach a draft pick onto him.

Any team he gets traded to only takes on a cap hit of 16m. For a team like Miami that has 73m in cap space, absorbing that could be done easily.

If he plays well in 2022 they could then either re-sign him or let him walk in 2023 free agency and collect a compensatory pick in 2024.

Its this reason why I think there will be some trade market.

4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

That's implying that Jordan Davis BVA, which I'd argue pretty easily he's not in a tier himself.  I'd argue there's four (maybe) five blue chip prospects in the draft Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson, Evan Neal, and Derek Stingley.  I think Kyle Hamilton is an elite prospect, but I think you need a defense where he can be a star and not someone like Adrian Amos (which isn't a knock btw).  I haven't seen enough of Ikem Ekwonu to know if he's in that top tier, or if he's in that next tier.  That second tier is guys like George Karlaftis, David Ojabo, Tyler Linderbaum, etc.  I'm just not a fan of taking skill position early in the draft unless you're looking at a guy like a JaMarr Chase or Adrian Peterson where you're pretty confident they're going to be an elite position player.

Agree with your thoughts on Davis and the reason I ended up going with him over the likes of Ojabo, Lindbaum, Williams etc was that DL is more a position of need this off-season. Was originally leaning towards Ojabo until Keke was cut but saw the value the same for both.

I think the top 5 you mentioned will all be gone and there’s a good chance Karlaftis would also be gone. Other viable option would be to trade back from 9 if there is a team that wants to come up to select a QB 

[StatKing]

23 minutes ago, OzPackfan said:

Yeah on the free market he may but 3 more years in Green Bay would allow him to then hit free agency again at 32 and get another big pay day. 

What team is going to sign a 32 year old WR to a big money deal? This is his last big contract and he knows it. Thats why he wants to be the highest paid WR in the league.

[OzPackfan]

9 minutes ago, StatKing said:

What team is going to sign a 32 year old WR to a big money deal? This is his last big contract and he knows it. Thats why he wants to be the highest paid WR in the league.

3 years 82.5m or 4 years 110m it doesn’t matter really. Both can be accommodated and both make him the highest paid (per year) in the NFL

[pgwingman]

1 hour ago, OzPackfan said:

My numbers were factoring in most if not all new contracts will have void years to spread the cost out. 
 

Yes we are over the cap considerably for next year but we have around 117m to work with in 2023 so some can be pushed back without hurting the team overall (that’s if Rodgers leaves).
 

Geeze, that's a bummer. If I'm Gute and I trade Rodgers, I want this rebuild to be as quick as possible. I don't want $15m dead cap hits pushed out and taking up the rest of Love's rookie deal.

[HighCalebR]

2 minutes ago, pgwingman said:

Geeze, that's a bummer. If I'm Gute and I trade Rodgers, I want this rebuild to be as quick as possible. I don't want $15m dead cap hits pushed out and taking up the rest of Love's rookie deal.

Yeah I'd be keeping the core and take a dead year a la the Pats. Come out on the other side with some bank roll to reinvigorate the rooms with vets.

[OzPackfan]

3 hours ago, pgwingman said:

Geeze, that's a bummer. If I'm Gute and I trade Rodgers, I want this rebuild to be as quick as possible. I don't want $15m dead cap hits pushed out and taking up the rest of Love's rookie deal.

The alternative is

- You don’t bring back any of the free agents we have,

- You trade Rodgers

- Cut Smith Bros, Cobb, Turner

- Do minimal restructuring of Bahktiari, Clark and Jones deals (bonuses only)

- Extend Alexander (4 years 77m)

We do that and we have 30m of cap space next year and 110m of cap space in 2023

 

That sort of offseason gives you maximum flexibility for 2023 onwards but can we be confident that we will be able to draft/sign players of the quality we have lost in 2022??