pgwingman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 PACKERS MOCK OFFSEASON: VERSION 2.0 Ok folks, this is my second mock attempt of the season. In the first mock, I worked to keep both Rodgers and Adams. The goal of this first mock is to map out a future where Rodgers stays under a contract that is “reasonable” given his MVP level play, which dictates Adams going elsewhere for a larger payday. With all due respect to @OzPackfan, I don’t see the Packers loading up on void year contracts to keep together a bunch of pieces, so I’ve done my best to make this mock about keeping Rodgers and rebalancing the rest of the roster with proven depth. Until the offseason arrives, I’m assuming trophy number 5 is hoisted at 1265 Lombardi Ave. Pick number 32. Per Ken Ingalls on Twitter: Packers need $69m in cap space before regular season. This signs the draft class and all the ERFAs, and leaves us $5m to roll into the season with. (Ken's Breakdown) Total needed: $69m EXTENSIONS (amount saved) Aaron Rodgers - ($11m) Rodgers cap floor for 2022 is $20M (sourced by Ken Ingalls on twitter). This money can not be moved out. He is extended 3 years with another $15M in signing bonus for year 1. Cap hit is lowered from $46m to $35m, and he remains a Packer for life. I honestly don’t think he goes any lower than this in 2022. Much discussion has been given to Rodgers being willing to take a Tom Brady size deal ($25m) to keep the rest of the roster together, but I just don't see Rodgers going that low. Jaire Alexander -($6m) Signs a 4/$80m year extension. He lowers his cap hit by $6M (also courtesy of Ken Ingalls on twitter) Adrian Amos -($4m) Signs a 3 year extension. Converts $6m of 2022 base salary into signing bonus. Signs a 4 year, $50m contract with $16m signing bonus. His cap hit lowers from $12m to $8m in 2022 Preston Smith - ($7m) Signs a 3 year extension at $17m APY Total Savings: $28m CUTS (amount saved) Za'darius Smith - ($16m) Randall Cobb - ($7m) Mason Crosby - $2.5m (resigned for $1.5m, saving $1m) Takes a pay cut to stay here. Marcedes Lewis - $1m Billy Turner - ($6m, Post June 1) Yosh Nijman/Dennis Kelly become RT Dean Lowry - ($6m, Post June 1) Kingsley Keke - ($2m) Cut this week, so I’m treating it like and offseason cut. Total savings from cuts: $39m RESTRUCTURES (amount saved) David Bakhtiari - ($8m) Restructures $12m of roster bonus and base salary ($13m available) into signing bonus. Kenny Clark - ($8m) Restructures $6m of base salary and $6m of roster bonus into signing bonus ($15m available). Cap space added: $16m Total cap space available: -$69m + $28m + $39m + $16m= $14m Note that this has already accounted for draft picks being signed. It also includes $5m for in season emergency signings. So the $14m number is our effective budget. SPENDING (Contract estimations included for discussion) Effective Budget = $14m Corey Bojorquez - ($2m). We need a punter, I don’t think we save much by going with a draft pick. Allen Lazard (RFA) -($4m, 2nd round tender.). Seems like an obvious candidate to be WR1. Dennis Kelly - ($3m) - He and Yosh become RT depending on the draft. Tyler Lancaster - ($2m) - Reasonably priced depth piece. Chandon Sullivan - ($3m) - Reasonably priced depth piece. DEPARTURES (Contract estimations included for discussion) Davante Adams - ($25m) De’Vondre Campbell - ($9m) Robert Tonyan - ($6m) Rasul Douglas - ($8m) Kevin King - ($3m) Marquez Valdes-Scantling - ($4m) Equanimeous St. Brown - ($1m) Oren Burks - ($2m) Whitney Mercilus - ($2m) - possible retirement candidate DRAFT NEEDS -Major hole at WR/TE to replace Davante, MVS, Tonyan -Major hole at EDGE, LB - A good RT allows Dennis Kelly to be released. TRADES -Jordan Love is traded to Denver for a 4rd round pick. I stand by my earlier predictions that if Rodgers stays, Love will be traded as a part of the negotiated extension. NFL DRAFT -Packers receive 4th and 6th round comp picks for Cory Linsley and Jamaal Williams -Packers have no 6th round pick, but Houston’s 7th round pick (traded for Randall Cobb) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ROUND 1, PICK 32 OVERALL Travon Walker, DE, Georgia -From PFN: On our consensus big board at PFN, however, Walker receives recognition as one of the top defensive tackles in the 2022 NFL Draft. Walker's weight may be a topic of discussion in the future — he's listed at 275 pounds but may end up closer to 300. Closer to 300 would be a better range for Walker. Yet, he's already a tremendously versatile lineman with good burst and length, with lateral twitch also mixed into his game. -From Wingman - Replaces Dean Lowry ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 2, PICK 32, 64 OVERALL Sean Rhyan, OT, UCLA PFN: Some tackles aren't physically ready for the NFL when they're drafted. That won't be the case for Rhyan. Rhyan is a 6'5", 320-pound behemoth. He has a large, burly frame, and stores massive amounts of power in his lower body. His torso is incredibly dense, and that, in conjunction with solid flexibility, allows him to absorb opposing power with ease. -From Wingman - Replaces Billy Turner, allows Dennis Kelly/Yosh Nijman to be signed as a backup. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 3, PICK 32, 96 OVERALL Erik Ezukuma, WR, Texas Tech PFN:Ezukanma has an elite size/length/athleticism combination. With his traits, he can truly be a three-level threat at the next level. Ezukanma's size is what stands out first. At 6'3", 220 pounds, the Texas Tech WR has great range and density. He also has elite length, with arms that might measure over 32 inches. -From Wingman - Replaces Davante Adams ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 4, PICK 10 , 112 OVERALL (From Broncos) Jeffery Gunter, EDGE, Coastal Carolina PFN:Tall, strong, and long, Gunter plays the game with a relentless motor. Equally adept at terrorizing quarterbacks or setting the edge in the run game, his usage at Coastal gives him additional versatility. Last season alone, he neared 100 pass-coverage reps, using his length and athletic ability to add another dimension to his threat as a pass rusher. -From Wingman - Replaces De’Vondre Campbell ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 4, PICK 32 , 134 OVERALL John Ridgeway, DT Arkansas PFN:With his size, Ridgeway has great length — early reports list his arms around 34 inches. That length allows Ridgeway to levy violent extensions against his opponents, and he has the strength to disengage as well. With a decent first step, Ridgeway can carry a great deal of momentum into his rushes, and his well-proportioned frame makes him tough to move in the run game. -From Wingman - Replaces Kingsley Keke ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 4, PICK 33, (COMP) 135 OVERALL Charlie Kolar, TE, Iowa State PFN: One of the more productive tight end prospects in recent memory, Charlie Kolar put up 106 catches for 1,425 yards and 17 touchdowns over three seasons at Iowa State. At 6'6'' and 257 pounds, he has the size that many NFL teams covet at the position. -From Wingman - Replaces Tonyan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 5, PICK 32, 174 OVERALL Leo Chenal, LB, Wisconsin TDN: Chenal dominated in Wisconsin's recent win over Purdue, logging 9 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks. With his burst and all-out energy, Chenal is a dangerous blitzer. But he also plays with anticipation in congestion, and he knows how to free himself to make those decisive plays. -From Wingman - Replaces Oren Burks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 6, PICK 33 (COMP), 219 OVERALL DeAngelo Malone, EDGE Western Kentucky, 6-4, 240lb PFN:Standing at 6’4″, 240 pounds, Malone’s size immediately stands out. He has an extremely long, lean frame that offers plenty of reach. His natural length serves as an exceptional conduit for artificial power generation, and his thin, compact frame makes him incredibly slippery as a rusher. Malone possesses good mobility in addition to his length. He shows solid explosiveness off the line, and his long strides can cover ground with impressive quickness. -From Wingman - He and Jeffery Gunter work to upgrade EDGE losses from Mercilus and Z. Smith ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 7, PICK 5, 225 OVERALL Zacch Pickens , DT South Carolina, 6-3, 305lb -No review available yet. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROUND 7, PICK 32, 252 OVERALL Emeka Emezie, WR North Carolina State, 6-3, 210lb TDN: Thick, muscular frame and he embraces the physical components of the position. Brings the fight as a route-runner, blocker, runner, and at the catch point. Love his ball skills and how he attacks the football like an alpha. Competitive in contested situations and he assertively gets himself in positions to win. Attacks the football with a “my-ball” mentality and he is never outworked for the football. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONCLUDING THOUGHTS -The main purpose of the mock was to mock out the cap constraints required to keep Rodgers in GB, which was accomplished. -In my previous mock I had kept Rodgers and Adams at the expense of everyone else, but In this mock I was much more satisfied with the balance of the roster by keeping all the depth pieces instead. (https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/40328-wingmans-mock-offseason-keeping-rodgers-and-adams/) -Overall, I’m not sure this team is capable of making a serious playoff run, but I’m happy with the results if the WRs can step up. Comment below with your thoughts. Thank you for reading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 20 minutes ago, pgwingman said: Preston Smith - ($7m) Signs a 3 year extension at $17m APY Can someone explain to me where this $17M/year is coming from? That would make him T-4th with Shaq Barrett for highest paid 3-4 OLB behind TJ Watt, Khalil Mack, and Von Miller. He's only had ONE double-digit sack season and he's nowhere near the pass rusher those other 3 are. I thinks something around $15M/year is his high point and that's if he hits FA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lodestar Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I know we're in a bind but going into 2022 with Lazard, Amari, Winfree as our only veteran WRs seems... less than ideal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 hour ago, CWood21 said: Can someone explain to me where this $17M/year is coming from? That would make him T-4th with Shaq Barrett for highest paid 3-4 OLB behind TJ Watt, Khalil Mack, and Von Miller. He's only had ONE double-digit sack season and he's nowhere near the pass rusher those other 3 are. I thinks something around $15M/year is his high point and that's if he hits FA. Fair enough, I'll revise his number down. THE SAVINGS JUST KEEP ROLLING IN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 33 minutes ago, Lodestar said: I know we're in a bind but going into 2022 with Lazard, Amari, Winfree as our only veteran WRs seems... less than ideal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzPackfan Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 The biggest issue with keeping Rodgers is that he will want some if not all of his mates (Cobb, Lewis, Adams, Crosby) to stick around. A sensible deal for both Rodgers and the Packers is a 3 year 108m extension that lowers his cap number in 2022 down to just under 30m. Will that happen is yet to be seen. I also noticed you have included any of the ERFA in your mock so that’s another 6-7m of money to be accounted for. Ultimately the decision the Packers need to make is which 2 players out of Rodgers, Adams, Preston and Za’Darius do they keep as there is no way I can see where they keep more than 2 and not have to gut the team As for all of our free agents, I have them in this order in terms of priority: - Adams - Campbell - Douglas - Lazard - MVS - Patrick The rest I think are replaceable at a much lower cost and would be surprised to see many of them back 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemike778 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 hours ago, OzPackfan said: Ultimately the decision the Packers need to make is which 2 players out of Rodgers, Adams, Preston and Za’Darius do they keep as there is no way I can see where they keep more than 2 and not have to gut the team Z is as good as gone. 3rd contract, major back injury, big contract. Regardless of cap situation that's an easy exit. Adams wants too much money, not feasible. Honestly I could see Preston going as well unless cheap. I don't like 3rd contracts so would only give them out to your absolute key guys. Preston has had a good year but ... Wouldn't shock me if was Gary, a Mercilous type player and hit the draft. If Rodgers stays I think it might well be 1/4 of these. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siman08/OH Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Not even gonna read it cuz Adams leaves. Cheap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzPackfan Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, mikemike778 said: Z is as good as gone. 3rd contract, major back injury, big contract. Regardless of cap situation that's an easy exit. Adams wants too much money, not feasible. Honestly I could see Preston going as well unless cheap. I don't like 3rd contracts so would only give them out to your absolute key guys. Preston has had a good year but ... Wouldn't shock me if was Gary, a Mercilous type player and hit the draft. If Rodgers stays I think it might well be 1/4 of these. Yep it is very likely that the Smith Bros are gone. Re the third contract, it’s a no brainer to give these if the player is a future HoFer and is still producing at a high level (Adams meets that criteria IMO) The biggest question is around Rodgers but that should be solved by early Feb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 21 hours ago, OzPackfan said: The biggest issue with keeping Rodgers is that he will want some if not all of his mates (Cobb, Lewis, Adams, Crosby) to stick around. A sensible deal for both Rodgers and the Packers is a 3 year 108m extension that lowers his cap number in 2022 down to just under 30m. Will that happen is yet to be seen. I also noticed you have included any of the ERFA in your mock so that’s another 6-7m of money to be accounted for. Ultimately the decision the Packers need to make is which 2 players out of Rodgers, Adams, Preston and Za’Darius do they keep as there is no way I can see where they keep more than 2 and not have to gut the team As for all of our free agents, I have them in this order in terms of priority: - Adams - Campbell - Douglas - Lazard - MVS - Patrick The rest I think are replaceable at a much lower cost and would be surprised to see many of them back So a couple of points: If Rodgers gets down to $30m instead of $35, that would give us enough to afford Cobb or MVS based on my estimates, but not both. But I do agree, Rodgers could go as low as $30m. That extra $5m would certainly go along way to keeping some talent in the WR corps. As far as ERFAs go, my initial $69m number assumes those are all resigned, since they play at a minimum deal anyways. As far as our free agents, I am kinda stuck. I've done two mocks where Rodgers stays. After a lot restructures and gutting, I can get about $15m in cap space to spend. If I go by your $30m number for Rodgers, you could add $5m and say our cap space is now $20m.This would easily be gobbled up by Adams and not come close to his anticipated price tag of $25m. But even then, you lose everyone that makes this defense special (Preston, Douglas, Campbell), as well as all the role player types that help out (Lazard, Chandon Sullivan, Dean Lowry). I'd much rather spend that $20m on getting depth and defense over having Adams on the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 18 hours ago, Siman08/OH said: Not even gonna read it cuz Adams leaves. Cheap. I did do another mock where we keep Adams and Rodgers. Feel free to read that and be depressed about the entire defense going away in 2022. In my opinion, the only way Rodgers and Adams stay together as a tandem is on a different team in 2022. The purpose of this mock was to assume Gute keeps the more important of the pair, and salvage the rest of the roster as best they can in a mini rebuild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 19 hours ago, mikemike778 said: Z is as good as gone. 3rd contract, major back injury, big contract. Regardless of cap situation that's an easy exit. Adams wants too much money, not feasible. Honestly I could see Preston going as well unless cheap. I don't like 3rd contracts so would only give them out to your absolute key guys. Preston has had a good year but ... Wouldn't shock me if was Gary, a Mercilous type player and hit the draft. If Rodgers stays I think it might well be 1/4 of these. I think you're right, but I've been impressed enough by Gary and Preston this year that I want to see them together again. One argument you could make is if you cut Preston, could you then afford Campbell and another role player, like MVS? That might be an even better deal than keeping Preston. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzPackfan Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, pgwingman said: So a couple of points: If Rodgers gets down to $30m instead of $35, that would give us enough to afford Cobb or MVS based on my estimates, but not both. But I do agree, Rodgers could go as low as $30m. That extra $5m would certainly go along way to keeping some talent in the WR corps. As far as ERFAs go, my initial $69m number assumes those are all resigned, since they play at a minimum deal anyways. As far as our free agents, I am kinda stuck. I've done two mocks where Rodgers stays. After a lot restructures and gutting, I can get about $15m in cap space to spend. If I go by your $30m number for Rodgers, you could add $5m and say our cap space is now $20m.This would easily be gobbled up by Adams and not come close to his anticipated price tag of $25m. But even then, you lose everyone that makes this defense special (Preston, Douglas, Campbell), as well as all the role player types that help out (Lazard, Chandon Sullivan, Dean Lowry). I'd much rather spend that $20m on getting depth and defense over having Adams on the team. In my calculations you can keep Adams on a 4 year 110m deal (+ 1 void year) and have a cap charge in 2022 of around 10m The issue with that is that you are probably looking at cap charges of 25-30m for the last 2 years of the deal but by then the new TV dollars would probably have kicked in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pgwingman Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 9 minutes ago, OzPackfan said: In my calculations you can keep Adams on a 4 year 110m deal (+ 1 void year) and have a cap charge in 2022 of around 10m The issue with that is that you are probably looking at cap charges of 25-30m for the last 2 years of the deal but by then the new TV dollars would probably have kicked in I assume you're having Adams have a signing bonus bonus around $30m (which would prorate to $7.5m the first year) and a base salary of $2.5m? Certainly possible, but I would not be excited about those cap numbers later in the contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzPackfan Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, pgwingman said: I assume you're having Adams have a signing bonus bonus around $30m (which would prorate to $7.5m the first year) and a base salary of $2.5m? Certainly possible, but I would not be excited about those cap numbers later in the contract. Was working towards a 35m signing bonus, 1.5m salary and 1.5m in gameday/workout bonuses 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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