43M Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 28 minutes ago, warfelg said: I really think there’s something to the whole thing I tossed out there of needing to see him in this offense. A combo of that and how the other WRs look. Lets remember that Mike Wallace was in line for a big payday until Brown came along and made him more expendable. They might offer DJ something, but it likely wont be the number he wants. If DJ has another similar year (good, but inconsistent), but Claypool bounces back and the two rookies show promise, I think they will lean towards letting him walk. On the flipside, if DJ has a big year and the other WRs don't show enough, I think he will get tagged. Bottom line: Keeping DJ depends just as much on what Claypool, Pickens and Austin show as DJ himself. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted June 29, 2022 Author Share Posted June 29, 2022 3 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said: I’d be happy to see him put up a monster year then net us a nice comp pick. Only issue I have is that if he has a monster year, he confirms being a top 15-20 guy and you trade that for the first pick in the 4th round an entire draft away. That’s not a good swap. I maintain that the tag is not a good option. If that’s the play…just trade him now and max his deal because there’s still a season left of rookie deal for someone to take advantage of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben07MVP Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 I think Terry McLaurin is a clear tier above DJ in terms of WR rankings fwiw. I doubt DJ and his agent feel the same however. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 9 hours ago, Dcash4 said: Only issue I have is that if he has a monster year, he confirms being a top 15-20 guy and you trade that for the first pick in the 4th round an entire draft away. That’s not a good swap. I maintain that the tag is not a good option. If that’s the play…just trade him now and max his deal because there’s still a season left of rookie deal for someone to take advantage of. Honestly this doesn’t make sense to me. So either blind pay him (by that I mean not knowing his role in a Canada offense) or ditch him without seeing if it works? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 43 minutes ago, bigben07MVP said: I think Terry McLaurin is a clear tier above DJ in terms of WR rankings fwiw. I doubt DJ and his agent feel the same however. Because the NFL isn’t about where you are relative to who got paid it’s when you are. Terry got top 5 WR money and he’s no where near top 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted June 29, 2022 Author Share Posted June 29, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, warfelg said: So either blind pay him or ditch him without seeing if it works? Depends on what you mean by that -- because I would call it trading him at the height of his value. Dude costs a team trading for him $2.8M on a cap hit for this year. That's appetizing for contenting teams tight to the cap. The average of the top 5 WR cap hits* (and this is just so far....) makes the tag $29.2M next year. No, I do not view a hard cap hit of $30M a viable option. Nor do I like the idea of negotiating off that number for potential relief via extension. So my desired options would be: 1) Extend him to a more reasonable, manageable number in what equates to a one year extension 2) Trade him now 3) Let him walk and at best pick up the 97th pick in the 2024 draft 4) Tag him for just under $30M and be stuck with that on guaranteed hit with less leverage in trade and at best pick up the 97th pick in 2025 draft if he walks after I don't understand the blind part. DJ's style (not even talking about the player) matches across the entire NFL. Who doesn't want an X capable, route runner who beats man coverage? That's the thing that's hard to find. I would buy not trusting Canada's long term stay therefor not putting any money into an offense that might switch and let that OC pick his guys -- but fit wise, it's a match anywhere. Edited June 29, 2022 by Dcash4 *in 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 I honestly disagree with everything you posted there but have learned it’s not worth it to get into it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben07MVP Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 5 hours ago, warfelg said: So either blind pay him (by that I mean not knowing his role in a Canada offense) or ditch him without seeing if it works? Can you explain how one of the best route runners and YAC receivers in the NFL wouldn’t be a “fit” for Canada’s offense? If DJ isn’t a fit for Canada’s offense, then we need a new offense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted June 29, 2022 Author Share Posted June 29, 2022 2 hours ago, warfelg said: I honestly disagree with everything you posted there but have learned it’s not worth it to get into it. I understand we disagree mightily about DJ, but I just don't get how you disagree with everything there. Some of it is basic stuff we know right now or can at least surmise: - The tag at $30M is more expensive than an extension right now (Terry's deal around $21M to $24M cap hit) - Steelers don't guarantee money past 1 year except for super stars (essentially creating one year deals) - Most tagged players do not reach extensions and play the season on the tag - The trade value right now would likely exceed pick 97 - Earliest comp pick would be delivered in 2024. A trade would net a 2023 selection. - A comp pick can be eliminated by free agent signings. A traded draft pick cannot. What of that is wrong? $30M is too much for non-TJ Watt level of play. I'd far and away rather gamble one more guarantee year of DJ at McLaurin's deal or trade him right now for 2023 assets. The tag is too expensive and letting him walk is an immediate depreciation of what should be considered a top 20 WR asset. I just don't understand how we have reached a place were a few months ago some argued that $16-18M was too expensive for an extension, but now $30M on the tag would be acceptable. The WR market got out of control and I think we are between a rock and a hard place now. I don't think there is a right decision -- just ones less risky or more valuable than others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 4 hours ago, bigben07MVP said: Can you explain how one of the best route runners and YAC receivers in the NFL wouldn’t be a “fit” for Canada’s offense? If DJ isn’t a fit for Canada’s offense, then we need a new offense. The three biggest things I’m picking up on is combo routes, positional flexibility. If he doesn’t work well in those concepts then it’s a bad fit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben07MVP Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, warfelg said: The three biggest things I’m picking up on is combo routes, positional flexibility. If he doesn’t work well in those concepts then it’s a bad fit. What specific route do you think he’s not capable of running? He’s proven more than capable to master a complete route tree. The only position he’s not a great fit for is the slot and that’s because he’s SO good at winning on the outside, not necessarily because he can’t win in the slot. I see DJ as a poor man’s Stefon Diggs, and honestly think he can’t reach that level IF he fixes his drops and mental errors. Do you think there is an offense or system where Diggs wouldn’t thrive? Sorry, you can give other reasons why you don’t feel he’s worth a big contract but I can’t get on board with him possibly not being a “fit” for Canada’s offense as one of them. I have doubts about Canada even being here in 2023 but that’s a separate discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, bigben07MVP said: What specific route do you think he’s not capable of running? He’s proven more than capable to master a complete route tree. The only position he’s not a great fit for is the slot and that’s because he’s SO good at winning on the outside, not necessarily because he can’t win in the slot. I see DJ as a poor man’s Stefon Diggs, and honestly think he can’t reach that level IF he fixes his drops and mental errors. Do you think there is an offense or system where Diggs wouldn’t thrive? Sorry, you can give other reasons why you don’t feel he’s worth a big contract but I can’t get on board with him possibly not being a “fit” for Canada’s offense as one of them. I have doubts about Canada even being here in 2023 but that’s a separate discussion. I know he’s capable. It’s not about that. It’s about how he worked in concepts which has little to do with capability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFF Posted June 29, 2022 Share Posted June 29, 2022 (edited) 5 hours ago, Dcash4 said: I understand we disagree mightily about DJ, but I just don't get how you disagree with everything there. Some of it is basic stuff we know right now or can at least surmise: - The tag at $30M is more expensive than an extension right now (Terry's deal around $21M to $24M cap hit) - Steelers don't guarantee money past 1 year except for super stars (essentially creating one year deals) - Most tagged players do not reach extensions and play the season on the tag - The trade value right now would likely exceed pick 97 - Earliest comp pick would be delivered in 2024. A trade would net a 2023 selection. - A comp pick can be eliminated by free agent signings. A traded draft pick cannot. What of that is wrong? $30M is too much for non-TJ Watt level of play. I'd far and away rather gamble one more guarantee year of DJ at McLaurin's deal or trade him right now for 2023 assets. The tag is too expensive and letting him walk is an immediate depreciation of what should be considered a top 20 WR asset. I just don't understand how we have reached a place were a few months ago some argued that $16-18M was too expensive for an extension, but now $30M on the tag would be acceptable. The WR market got out of control and I think we are between a rock and a hard place now. I don't think there is a right decision -- just ones less risky or more valuable than others. All….of….this. I don’t see the point of FT now…it’s either trade him now….offer a reasonable 2-3 year extension or just accept having to throw more assets at WR in the 2023 offseason in the form of FA and draft capital. Edited June 29, 2022 by AFF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 1 hour ago, AFF said: All….of….this. I don’t see the point of FT now…it’s either trade him now….offer a reasonable 2-3 year extension or just accept having to throw more assets at WR in the 2023 offseason in the form of FA and draft capital. Why do we need to accept throwing assets at it? If Pickens and Austin are any good, with Claypool it could potentially be a still decent group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 (edited) 6 hours ago, Dcash4 said: The tag at $30M is more expensive than an extension right now (Terry's deal around $21M to $24M cap hit) https://overthecap.com/franchise-transition-and-rfa-tenders 2023 Projected Franchise and Transition Tenders Position Franchise Tag Transition WR $19,985,000 $17,511,000 A), The average of the five largest prior year salaries for players at the position at which the franchise player participated in the most plays during the prior league year, which average shall be calculated by: Summing the amounts of the franchise tags for players at that position for the five preceding league years Dividing the resulting amount by the sum of the salary caps for the five preceding league years Multiplying the resulting percentage by the salary cap for the upcoming league year — or (B), 120 percent of his prior year salary, whichever is greater. The tag is likely to be in the $20-22 mil range. Not $30 mil. Edited June 30, 2022 by warfelg 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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