Calvin Ridley traded to Jags

[Tugboat]

16 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Edit: Actually, what out of curiosity is the reason you don’t think he can lead a WR group? Or is this basis purely on happening to play with Julio?

Personally, i think Ridley has always been wildly overrated.  And nothing he did with Atlanta showed me otherwise.

 

He is what he is.  He's a fine WR2 who can get open in space.  That's it.  He cannot, and never has shown the real ability to make his own space.

[Soko]

2 hours ago, Tugboat said:

I mean, your numbers there showed exactly that.

 

He was targeted more.  But scored less.  Without Julio there for insulation.  Part of the advantage of a guy like Julio, is that he draws the toughest matchups away from your #2 Guy.  It opens up opportunities for your QB to dunk it to "the other guy".

So when Julio is there, Ridley gets more targets because Julio’s opening things up…but when Julio’s out, and Ridley’s production exceeds both Ridley’s half with Julio and Julio himself, that’s just by opportunity? You can’t make the “Julio draws attention” and “he got that production by opportunity” arguments together. 

[Tugboat]

43 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

So when Julio is there, Ridley gets more targets because Julio’s opening things up…but when Julio’s out, and Ridley’s production exceeds both Ridley’s half with Julio and Julio himself, that’s just by opportunity? You can’t make the “Julio draws attention” and “he got that production by opportunity” arguments together. 

Depends on how you're evaluating "production" i guess.  50% less TD results is a significant difference in results and production.

 

I really don't think think it needs to be explained, how a stud #1WR affects the results of everyone below them.  But here we are i guess...

 

I just think that part is pretty evident.  It's descriptive of what Ridley is as a player, when he's actually allowed to play.

[Soko]

12 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

Depends on how you're evaluating "production" i guess.  50% less TD results is a significant difference in results and production.

I really don't think think it needs to be explained, how a stud #1WR affects the results of everyone below them.  But here we are i guess...

I just think that part is pretty evident.  It's descriptive of what Ridley is as a player, when he's actually allowed to play.

You don’t see how those arguments don’t make sense together?

”Ridley’s production is as a benefactor of Julio” - Any receiver will see different coverages when opposite an elite weapon, yes. Then why does Ridley get more catches and more yards, in less games, when Julio is out?

”Well someone has to take eat that production. Any semi-decent player will produce when they’re the only option” - There’s also truth to this, but then it begs the question, why is Ridley getting the ball more than Julio when both are on the field? Why is Ridley producing as much as Julio Jones was when he was in the game? 

Somehow Ridley benefits incredibly whether Julio is in the game or not, lol. Makes it easy to discredit when, no matter what, he’s the beneficiary of…something. 

EDIT: You’re making a similar gamble that Buffalo made with Diggs. Diggs was also in a place where he wasn’t outright commanding targets, and it wasn’t extremely obvious that he’d be a high end #1 option without Thielen (not to say Julio and Thielen were similar quality players themselves). Diggs was a year younger and didn’t have the suspension/mental health stuff, but the Bills also gave up a first instead of a conditional second (which won’t be a second if this doesn’t work). It’s okay to be uneasy about that gamble without discrediting anybody. 

Edited November 8, 2022 by Yin-Yang

[Tugboat]

13 minutes ago, Yin-Yang said:

You don’t see how those arguments don’t make sense together?

”Ridley’s production is as a benefactor of Julio” - Any receiver will see different coverages when opposite an elite weapon, yes. Then why does Ridley get more catches and more yards, in less games, when Julio is out?

”Well someone has to take eat that production. Any semi-decent player will produce when they’re the only option” - There’s also truth to this, but then it begs the question, why is Ridley getting the ball more than Julio when both are on the field? Why is Ridley producing as much as Julio Jones was when he was in the game? 

Somehow Ridley benefits incredibly whether Julio is in the game or not, lol. Makes it easy to discredit when, no matter what, he’s the beneficiary of…something. 

EDIT: You’re making a similar gamble that Buffalo made with Diggs. Diggs was also in a place where he wasn’t outright commanding targets, and it wasn’t extremely obvious that he’d be a high end #1 option without Thielen (not to say Julio and Thielen were similar quality players themselves). Diggs was a year younger and didn’t have the suspension/mental health stuff, but the Bills also gave up a first instead of a conditional second (which won’t be a second if this doesn’t work). It’s okay to be uneasy about that gamble without discrediting anybody. 

The simple underlying premise of it, is pretty universal.  You basically spelled it out.

A #2WR benefits productively when they can avoid top matchups through the shelter of a #1WR opposite them drawing that attention.  But they can also personally benefit when they're forced to become "the guy" as well.

 

The point is...it doesn't actually make the team better as a whole.

 

Essentially, be less granular, and observer the more relevant statistic.  How did Matt Ryan do With/Without Julio?  With regards to Ridley.

 

 

 

This is something the Jaguars over many years, have not seemed to understand.

Edited November 8, 2022 by Tugboat

[Soko]

19 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

The simple underlying premise of it, is pretty universal.  You basically spelled it out.

A #2WR benefits productively when they can avoid top matchups through the shelter of a #1WR opposite them drawing that attention.  But they can also personally benefit when they're forced to become "the guy" as well.

The point is...it doesn't actually make the team better as a whole.

If Ridley doesn’t get credit for showing up when Julio doesn’t dress, then when is it physically possible for him ever to get credit as the #1 option in an offense?

You’re dealing with smaller sample sizes as a guy who’s both A) technically still on his rookie deal, and B) is playing with a HOFer, but you can still make some points based on what was shown. In the last full season, Ridley was getting target shares about the same as Julio was. If that’s because Julio was triple teamed and Ridley was left with no one on him, fine. Then Julio’s out. Logically, you would then shift all your attention to Ridley, since there’s not really anyone else to throw to worth a damn. He still performs. 

19 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

Essentially, be less granular, and observer the more relevant statistic.  How did Matt Ryan do With/Without Julio?  With regards to Ridley.

I’m not going to be the one to go cross reference that, lol. I already did it with those two before. Even if I assume Ryan’s production/play dips - what does that prove? That Ryan and the offense plays better with two good receivers than they do just one? Sounds reasonable for anyone. I would expect the same/similar results if it were Ridley out instead. 

Your bar for #1 receiver shouldn’t be Julio Jones. You spoke about an opportunity cost but never answered earlier - what were the other realistic options for 2023? 

[DM316]

As a Falcons fan, if all is well mentally and off the field the Jags are getting one of the more underrated receivers in the league. Elite route runner and doesn't drop the ball. Back in form he's a #1 and an upgrade over Kirk.

Edited November 10, 2022 by DM316

[DM316]

I would've liked to have seen him with Pitts and London but it sounded like he was on the block anyway. I wish him well, especially if that 4th turns into a 2nd.

[chiefs82]

Gonna be one expensive duo but I like the move.