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The STL Cardinals Thread - Wellcome Willson


CWood21
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11 hours ago, CWood21 said:

The problem with Garcia is it's such a limited sample size with his production.  And it's not like he was putting up other wordly production either.  A 112 wRC+ at AA at an age-appropriate league isn't exactly lighting the world on fire.  If you want to argue him in the top 30 I'd agree, but there are other higher upside players I'd put above him.  Probably in that 16-25 range for me without doing any digging.  

He's 24 and knocking on the door of MLB. In 24 games at Memphis: .346/.378/.487. I think he's right where he should be. He'd most likely be up for an injury already if we didn't have such a glut of MLB ready OF prospects. I don't really hold age against the Cubans who get over here later on (age wise). They're essentially college players, playing competition at the same or a little below that level. He's progressed at AA and has gotten better at AAA.

There are some low level guys that have higher upside, but they're still so far away it's hard to project them at this point... 

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1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Problem is he'd be blocking the playing time of guys like Bader, Sierra, etc...

Is he?  Looking at Memphis' roster right now, you've got your starting OF with Jose Adolis Garcia, Harrison Bader, and Tyler O'Neill when everyone is healthy.  At Springfield, you've got Magneuris Sierra, Oscar Mercado, and Randy Arozarena as your starting OF.  With the exception of maybe Sierra, I don't really think any of the OFers are forcing the issues.  You're just using up options when you bring them up and starting their arbitration clock.  IF the Cardinals were a more competitive team, I'd probably agree with you but we're not going to make the playoffs barring a drastic change.

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1 hour ago, kgarrett12486 said:

He's 24 and knocking on the door of MLB. In 24 games at Memphis: .346/.378/.487. I think he's right where he should be. He'd most likely be up for an injury already if we didn't have such a glut of MLB ready OF prospects. I don't really hold age against the Cubans who get over here later on (age wise). They're essentially college players, playing competition at the same or a little below that level. He's progressed at AA and has gotten better at AAA.

There are some low level guys that have higher upside, but they're still so far away it's hard to project them at this point... 

I guess I don't really see any standout tools, and we're talking about a limited sample size at Memphis.  He wasn't a huge base stealing threat, and while he's shown improved power in Memphis it's still not what I'd consider a significant tool.  He's a nice player, but again there's nothing to me that forces the issue.

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57 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

LOL, he hates the media...

He knew exactly what he was doing and the possible situation he was in...

I actually feel bad for him.  I think everyone knows the writing is on the wall and that he's likely to be dealt before the deadline.

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6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Is he?  Looking at Memphis' roster right now, you've got your starting OF with Jose Adolis Garcia, Harrison Bader, and Tyler O'Neill when everyone is healthy.  At Springfield, you've got Magneuris Sierra, Oscar Mercado, and Randy Arozarena as your starting OF.  With the exception of maybe Sierra, I don't really think any of the OFers are forcing the issues.  You're just using up options when you bring them up and starting their arbitration clock.  IF the Cardinals were a more competitive team, I'd probably agree with you but we're not going to make the playoffs barring a drastic change.

I was referencing beginning in 2018 and moving forward. This year is a lost cause IMO...

Realistically, assuming we don't make a significant move now or in the off-season where we deal a couple guys we'll have:

LF-Pham + Grichuk, CF-Fowler, RF-Piscotty all on the roster and then Bader, O'Neill and possibly Garcia ready to go as well. I thin Sierra could be the one who stays in Memphis, possibly Garcia as well. That still gives us at least 6 OF's for 4 likely spots, not including what we do with Martinez...

I know you're saying 'forcing the issue' but what else do you want from Bader and O'Neill. They've both reached the peak of what AAA can offer them learning wise and we need to see what they offer at the MLB level or move them...

I think this whole situation could be cleared up though in the off-season. I fully expect a couple guys to be moved for a MOTO bat. Pretty much anyone not named Fowler and Piscotty are going to be looked at as assets to potentially be moved...

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4 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I think this whole situation could be cleared up though in the off-season. I fully expect a couple guys to be moved for a MOTO bat. Pretty much anyone not named Fowler and Piscotty are going to be looked at as assets to potentially be moved...

Like you mentioned, the only players who are guaranteed starting spots are Dexter Fowler and Stephen Piscotty because of their contract situations.  But I also think that this discussion is only an issue because Pham is in the middle of a career year, but he's proven to be anything reliable given his play and his injury history.  As for prospects, none of them are what I'd consider MOTB or elite table setters outside of maybe Magnueris Sierra.  They're guys who you plug into holes to fix the leaking, at least they are for me.  Harrison Bader isn't someone you want hitting in the 3 hole.  Jose Adolis Garcia isn't a guy you want doing that either.  They're all kinda in the same mold for me. 

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55 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I guess I don't really see any standout tools, and we're talking about a limited sample size at Memphis.  He wasn't a huge base stealing threat, and while he's shown improved power in Memphis it's still not what I'd consider a significant tool.  He's a nice player, but again there's nothing to me that forces the issue.

He's got above average arm and plays better defense than most. I'm not advocating him as a top ten guy, which is where high ceiling guys, but I think his floor is pretty solid...

He falls in that 11-20 range for me, especially given how close he is and how far some of the others have to go still...

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1 minute ago, kgarrett12486 said:

He's got above average arm and plays better defense than most. I'm not advocating him as a top ten guy, which is where high ceiling guys, but I think his floor is pretty solid...

He falls in that 11-20 range for me, especially given how close he is and how far some of the others have to go still...

Let me ask you this, what separates him from say Magneuris Sierra?  Like I mentioned, we've got a glut of similar types of players in our system.

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1 minute ago, CWood21 said:

Like you mentioned, the only players who are guaranteed starting spots are Dexter Fowler and Stephen Piscotty because of their contract situations.  But I also think that this discussion is only an issue because Pham is in the middle of a career year, but he's proven to be anything reliable given his play and his injury history.  As for prospects, none of them are what I'd consider MOTB or elite table setters outside of maybe Magnueris Sierra.  They're guys who you plug into holes to fix the leaking, at least they are for me.  Harrison Bader isn't someone you want hitting in the 3 hole.  Jose Adolis Garcia isn't a guy you want doing that either.  They're all kinda in the same mold for me. 

Totally agree, none of the prospects should be a considered a guy you can plug into the #3 or #4 hole for next 5 years and get the production we're accustomed too from those spots prior to 2016...

Grichuk included...

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3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Let me ask you this, what separates him from say Magneuris Sierra?  Like I mentioned, we've got a glut of similar types of players in our system.

Sierra is clearly the superior talent, hence why I have him at #7 on my prospect list and Garcia outside the top 10...

Sierra offers better defense and speed. Both arms are pretty much a wash, both are above average. Garcia will offer more pop, but nothing significant. Think Sierra needs to refine his pitch recognition for another year at AAA...

I think Garcia is MLB ready. I don't expect him to be a significant cog, but he could be a good 4th OF, or potentially a lower 3rd of the batting order bat, but offer solid defense as a starter on teams...

Agree on the glut though, Bader + Garcia + Sierra all fall into a similar mold. O'Neill is the only one I see that has the bat to develop into a #4 type because of his power. When I say that I mean a guy who could hit 40 bombs, but probably is going to hit like .250 ala a Chris Davis...

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17 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Sierra is clearly the superior talent, hence why I have him at #7 on my prospect list and Garcia outside the top 10...

Sierra offers better defense and speed. Both arms are pretty much a wash, both are above average. Garcia will offer more pop, but nothing significant. Think Sierra needs to refine his pitch recognition for another year at AAA...

I think Garcia is MLB ready. I don't expect him to be a significant cog, but he could be a good 4th OF, or potentially a lower 3rd of the batting order bat, but offer solid defense as a starter on teams...

Agree on the glut though, Bader + Garcia + Sierra all fall into a similar mold. O'Neill is the only one I see that has the bat to develop into a #4 type because of his power. When I say that I mean a guy who could hit 40 bombs, but probably is going to hit like .250 ala a Chris Davis...

I view Sierra similarly to the way I view Ender Inciarte.  He's a guy whose going hit .300 or close to it, swipe some bases, and play good defense and there's value in that.  That's a 3 WAR CF.  Maybe not superstar talent level, but someone you're getting good value at and quite frankly a position that I'd give up a bit of offense for defense for.  As for Garcia, he's more a cOF for me although I think he can play a passable CF.  I don't think he has the speed that Sierra has, but he offers more power.  But I'm not sure his bat really carries him as a cOF, seems more like a career 4th OF if we're being honest.

O'Neill is really the only one who projects as a MOTB, but he's got his issues.  I don't think he's Chris Davis, but he's a guy whose going to hit .260 in the big leagues and mashing 30 HR along the way.  I'd like to see improve his pitch recognition, but to me he's probably ahead of Garcia and even Sierra in terms of future roles.  So right there, you've got Mike O'Neill in LF, Magnueris Sierra in CF, and Stephen Piscotty in RF.  We've still got Dexter Fowler under contract for another 4 years beyond this year, and you've got Harrison Bader.  That's one of the reasons why I think Bader becomes trade bait.  I'm not sure what for, but I just don't see a future in St. Louis for him much like I didn't see a future for Marco Gonzales.

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