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Who will Break Out this Year?


onejayhawk

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The question was raised in the NFL General forum. This is what I posted.

The Chiefs played defensive rookies an astounding 3000+ snaps last season, well over 20% of all defensive snaps. Any one of these players could step up.

Trent McDuffie CB 
George Karlaftis EDGE 
Bryan Cook S
Leo Chenal LB
Joshua Williams CB
Jaylen Watson CB

McDuffie and Karlaftis are 1st round picks. They would need to get Pro Bowl recognition. Cook, Williams, and Watson are later picks. Cook will likely step into starter snap count and he's a hitter, so he has a real chance to make a splash. Chenal is also a hitter and he made an impact in the Super Bowl on limited snaps, but the LB room has gotten very crowded. Williams has the tools to make a move but Watson is the one with the flair for the dramatic. He owns the record for the longest interception return by a rookie (99 yards TD, also the longest for the 2022 season) and he made the one-handed interception against Trevor Lawrence in the playoffs.

On the offensive side, former 1st round pick Kadarius Toney has already made an impact with the record punt return in the Super Bowl but only played seven games for the Chiefs in 2022. With health and a full season, he could be Patrick Mahomes' favorite target. Or Skyy Moore could make the big step forward and take that role himself. That WR is crowded with talent. Also, don't forget the fan favorite, RB Isiah Pacheco. He outgained the Eagles' RB roster in the Super Bowl.

I'll throw in one more, Noah Gray. In a very good TE class, the Chiefs stood pat and they announced that they would not carry a FB. That leaves the door open for 5 TE.

Who do you pick?

Edited by onejayhawk
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Somewhat related. Mahomes is saying that we have a deep WR room.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/05/30/patrick-mahomes-i-think-were-deep-at-receiver/

While a lot of people will blow this off as wishful thinking, Mahomes said similar things about Justin Watson last spring. Watson went on to have an excellent season, third in snaps to only JuJu and MVS. Watson is back and so is MVS. Toward the end of the season and in the playoffs, the team leaned heavily on Kadarius Toney. Even if you discount Toney because of his injury history, Mahomes likes the chances of finding a weapon or two from the list of Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice, John Ross, and Justyn Ross. 

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I feel like we could see something special out of Rice and FAU.  I don’t know why, but they just seem to fit too perfectly to not have success.  Obviously I’ma but of a homer for FAU, but when you draw up a Spags DE…it basically looks like him.

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I'm not sure I'd bet anyone will break out.    I think some guys will turn into solid players,   but really that's all we need.

Skyy, Toney, CEH, Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook are all guys I expect to keep growing.   

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If Toney becomes the WR1 that everyone is talking about, he is necessarily a breakout. Of course, he has to stay healthy for that. Likewise, Skyy Moore is poised for a bigger role. if KD goes down, Skyy may become the lead WR. Of course, everything Mahomes says about Rashee Rice speaks to ORoY potential. It's a deep unit. Don't sleep on Noah Gray. He will not get a lot of action with Kelce on the field so much, but he's good enough that they may give Kelce more snaps off. 

On defense, FAU is a legit DRoY candidate, though a longshot. He has a ton of natural bend in his game which makes him more of a finisher than your power players like Karlaftis. He should also get a lot more single blocking than GK or Chris Jones. The Chiefs rookie sack record is 10, by DT obviously, set in 1989. FAU could make a run at that number.

 

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If Toney is Plan A as seems to be the case, Skyy Moore is Plan B.

Reid likes his veterans and Skyy has seen the elephant. He still does not have the synchronicity with Mahomes that KD has, but that is something that improved dramatically during the season. In terms of ability, Skyy has always had the chops. Here is one article touting him as the breakout.
https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/skyy_moore_chiefs_2023_offensive_breakout_candidate/s1_16880_38872604

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We have talked a lot about offensive breakouts. On defense, we have a few candidates, notably the first-round picks McDuffie and Karlaftis, Bryan Cook, and longshots in Leo Chenal, Joshua Williams, and Jaylen Watson. Easily the best bet is Cook who is almost guaranteed a significant upgrade in playing time. 
https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/bryan_cook_chiefs_2023_defensive_breakout_candidate/s1_16880_38876402

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One more name to throw in--Charles Omenihu.

CO has been in the NFL since 2019 and has all of 11.5 sacks to show for it. Barring injury, if he gets fewer than seven this season, I will be shocked. He is tailor-made for a Spagnuolo defense and has the versatility to play DE or DT. Below are the $4 MM in incentives that he can receive. Note that each has a requirement of 65% of the snaps, slightly more than Karlaftis had last season. I like that appearing in the AFC Championship is enough but the team has to win the Super Bowl to activate the bonus.
https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/analysis/tracking-nfl-contract-incentives-heading-into-2023-season/

Charles Omenihu, DE, Kansas City Chiefs

Charles Omenihu signed a two-year, $16 million deal with the Kansas City Chiefs, with another $4 million available in incentives. The incentives are split evenly between the two years (up to $2 million in 2023 and 2024).

65% of defensive snaps $500,000
65% of defensive snaps + team makes playoffs $1 million ($500,000 + original $500,000)
65% of defensive snaps + AFC Championship appearance $1.5 million ($500,000 + original $1 million)
65% of defensive snaps + team wins Super Bowl $2 million ($500,000 + original $1.5 million)
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Skyy has been my answer since like mid last year, and I stand by it. The two games JuJu was out of the game plan, LAC when he was out and LAR when they used him sparingly as he was still recovering, Skyy averaged 5 catches for about 50 yards. That's pretty similar production to what JuJu himself had last year, and even that was on a still somewhat limited snap count (only played about 45% of snaps those two games.) I think Skyy Moore is the long term plan for the same role JuJu was the short term plan for. Shifty route runner with reliable hands to help move the chains and handle the same kind of underneath stuff outside that Kelce does inside. I think JuJu panned out well and it left little need for Skyy to get much playing time, but we made little effort to retain JuJu, and I believe it's because Skyy is going to step directly into that role. They're talking up Toney, and I think Toney has more potential to be a playmaker and a higher ceiling, but I think Skyy will slot in and get that 75+ catch 900+ yard kind of role JuJu had last year.

I think we'll see the same with Rashee Rice and MVS, actually. I think Rice gets minimal playing time, definitely behind Toney/Moore/MVS, and possibly even behind Watson as well depending on how Rice develops early. Rice doesn't quite have the burner speed that MVS, but he is a deep threat in his own way, still some explosiveness but excellent at the point of catch, which is something we haven't really had with Mahomes yet. But I wouldn't be surprised in the least if next offseason we cut MVS, and Rice takes over all the go and post and corner routes, and all the clear out routes to make space underneath that MVS took last year.

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I think it's already clear that Rice is going to have more than minimal time. He has a body type that no one else has, he fits too many roles, and the red zone potential is too good. On top of that, we have Mahomes and the coaches both talking about his poise and maturity. That said, it may still be less than KT, Skyy, and MVS. This is a deep unit.

 

 

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2 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

This is a deep unit.

While I'd like to agree, i'm from Missouri and I want them to "show me" before I settle on it as fact.

The WR corps is still quite young. MVS is probably the veteran of the group. Toney would be except for his injury history.

J.Watson, Skky, Rice are all young and still somewhat inexperienced. Let's see where they are by mid October.

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4 hours ago, mayanfootball said:

While I'd like to agree, i'm from Missouri and I want them to "show me" before I settle on it as fact.

The WR corps is still quite young. MVS is probably the veteran of the group. Toney would be except for his injury history.

J.Watson, Skky, Rice are all young and still somewhat inexperienced. Let's see where they are by mid October.

Watson is a veteran, now in his fifth season, MVS in his sixth, and Toney in his fourth. It's the rest who are young and inexperienced.

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5 hours ago, onejayhawk said:

Watson is a veteran, now in his fifth season, MVS in his sixth, and Toney in his fourth. It's the rest who are young and inexperienced.

Watson isn't so much with KC. Toney also isn't so much with KC and his injury history. Again, I stand by my post.

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