Brad Holmes Draft Fact Check: Spoiler Alert--Most of It Is Good!

[Just Want A Title]

Maybe my ideal comparison is the Baltimore Ravens.  They draft well almost every year.  Although, they seem to have a pretty poor track record with drafting WRs and CBs.  Still, they are usually end up with a winning record and contend for the division.  Good drafting can keep the "window" open a little longer.  The 2024 draft will be the first draft where the Lions are finishing off their roster and brining on some developmental talent to step in when they lose players to injury, age or free agency.

[Just Want A Title]

It is easy to forget that Kerby Joseph wasn't slated to get extended playing time in his rookie year until Tracy Walker went down with his Achilles injury.  The performance of our depth players over the last two weeks seems to indicate that the depth we have been looking for so long is finally developing nicely.

[Sllim Pickens]

51 minutes ago, detfan782004 said:

Every team faces a window of being title contender regardless of how good they build roster.

I would say Cincy is a good example. That window is dying quick.

A lot of that is QB driven. So as this team gets to that point of potential contention Goff is done age wise so who is next QB?

I listened to a podcast other day and I wish I could find the name of it because it talked about 3-5 year window is a dream in the NFL. Anything longer is likely due to exceptional QB talent 

This is my big point every time someone brings up give a new coach time.  I called for Patricia to be fired after year two because we had taken steps backwards each year he was there and waiting another year just delays the chance to turn it around. 

Roster churn in the league is insane and 4 years from now, we will likely have 85% new players on our roster.  You have foundations and hope to build around them but the best way to stay good for longer terms is to draft well, develop talent, and be able to adapt schemes. Even next year we may see 30% or more of our roster turnover between free agents and cuts. 

Assistant coach churn is also a thing.  We will have to likely find a new OC and maybe DC next year.  Its hard for continuity to continue being good/great.  See the Rams and how quickly they fell apart when their coordinators left. 

The Patriots have been the outlier, and a lot of that had to do with Brady but also luck.  Brady always made them competitive, but him taking a discount to pay others, them drafting well, and not overpaying for guys they can replace cheaper is what kept them relevant for so long. 

The 49ers are breaking the mold now with being competitive at least due to having a great defense and solid run scheme keeping control of the clock and not requiring their team to score a ton to win.  They remind me of the Ray Lewis/Suggs Ravens teams that didnt have elite QB play but their D and ground game kept them relevant for a long time.  

We have Hutch, ARSB and Sewell as our centerpieces for one more year after this.  After that we have to pay ARSB and Sewell will be on a 5th year option with at least 1 pro bowl so his will be the top 10 average of LTs.  The next year will be Hutch's 5th year option so we really have a 2/3 window as we can franchise ARSB if we have to.  If we resign them all then we can extend it as long as Holmes drafts well and DC finds coaches that can develop players.  

[detfan782004]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

This is my big point every time someone brings up give a new coach time.  I called for Patricia to be fired after year two because we had taken steps backwards each year he was there and waiting another year just delays the chance to turn it around. 

Roster churn in the league is insane and 4 years from now, we will likely have 85% new players on our roster.  You have foundations and hope to build around them but the best way to stay good for longer terms is to draft well, develop talent, and be able to adapt schemes. Even next year we may see 30% or more of our roster turnover between free agents and cuts. 

Assistant coach churn is also a thing.  We will have to likely find a new OC and maybe DC next year.  Its hard for continuity to continue being good/great.  See the Rams and how quickly they fell apart when their coordinators left. 

The Patriots have been the outlier, and a lot of that had to do with Brady but also luck.  Brady always made them competitive, but him taking a discount to pay others, them drafting well, and not overpaying for guys they can replace cheaper is what kept them relevant for so long. 

The 49ers are breaking the mold now with being competitive at least due to having a great defense and solid run scheme keeping control of the clock and not requiring their team to score a ton to win.  They remind me of the Ray Lewis/Suggs Ravens teams that didnt have elite QB play but their D and ground game kept them relevant for a long time.  

We have Hutch, ARSB and Sewell as our centerpieces for one more year after this.  After that we have to pay ARSB and Sewell will be on a 5th year option with at least 1 pro bowl so his will be the top 10 average of LTs.  The next year will be Hutch's 5th year option so we really have a 2/3 window as we can franchise ARSB if we have to.  If we resign them all then we can extend it as long as Holmes drafts well and DC finds coaches that can develop players.  

Right that is why it really is a 3-5 year window for most teams.

If you draft well those players are gonna get paid too and you can't keep them all.

Scouting department has to be on point and Spielman has helped turn that area around. 

[Just Want A Title]

Interesting feedback on Jahmyr Gibbs.

Austin Ekeler Points Out Detroit Lions Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs Tipping Runs (msn.com)

[detfan782004]

6 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Interesting feedback on Jahmyr Gibbs.

Austin Ekeler Points Out Detroit Lions Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs Tipping Runs (msn.com)

Yea that happens when you essentially have a slot WR playing RB.

He has to learn the RB position 

[Just Want A Title]

2 hours ago, detfan782004 said:

Yea that happens when you essentially have a slot WR playing RB.

He has to learn the RB position 

That might be true but when you compare his current numbers to other well know RBs like Christian McCaffrey his numbers hold up pretty well.

[detfan782004]

14 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

That might be true but when you compare his current numbers to other well know RBs like Christian McCaffrey his numbers hold up pretty well.

I dont understand the comparison of CMC to Gibbs.

I just dont see it.  I see more of Chris Johnson

 

[Sllim Pickens]

PFF released their Q1 All-Pro team

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-first-quarter-all-pro-team-tua-tagovailoa-jalen-carter

The Lions have two first team (Laporta and Ragnow) and one second team (Branch).  The sad part is Jalen Carter is also first team at DT and would look great on a line with Hutch and McNeil.  

 

On 97.1 the ticket this morning they were reading a list of the all-rookie team through the first quarter but I didn't catch where the list was from but it had Laporta, Branch and Campbell as 1st team rookies and Gibbs as a second team.  So for those who are down on our draft, the media is not.  

[LionArkie]

9 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

PFF released their Q1 All-Pro team

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2023-first-quarter-all-pro-team-tua-tagovailoa-jalen-carter

The Lions have two first team (Laporta and Ragnow) and one second team (Branch).  The sad part is Jalen Carter is also first team at DT and would look great on a line with Hutch and McNeil.  

 

On 97.1 the ticket this morning they were reading a list of the all-rookie team through the first quarter but I didn't catch where the list was from but it had Laporta, Branch and Campbell as 1st team rookies and Gibbs as a second team.  So for those who are down on our draft, the media is not.  

For me, I'm not really down on it -despite how I might be understood - I just think it could have been better. But then I realize, I forget about LaPorta. What is better for this team, Gibbs and LaPorta or Jalen Carter? That's going to be a question for long time. When I just compare Gibbs to Carter, or any of the other players, it's no contest. But that damn Laporta dude makes it tough to second guess.

Overall though, this was an excellent draft by Holmes, probably his best one imo. We got some really good talent in what I think was an overall weak draft class compared to other years.

[General Tso]

1 minute ago, LionArkie said:

For me, I'm not really down on it -despite how I might be understood - I just think it could have been better. But then I realize, I forget about LaPorta. What is better for this team, Gibbs and LaPorta or Jalen Carter? That's going to be a question for long time. When I just compare Gibbs to Carter, or any of the other players, it's no contest. But that damn Laporta dude makes it tough to second guess.

Overall though, this was an excellent draft by Holmes, probably his best one imo. We got some really good talent in what I think was an overall weak draft class compared to other years.

Doesn't have to be Carter. Could've been Gonzalez and then you take Achane with the Hooker pick.

[Just Want A Title]

Something to consider:

Jack Campbell stats:

 

Games		Def Interceptions					Fumbles						Tackles
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Yds	IntTD	Lng	PD	FF	Fmb	FR	Yds	FRTD	Sk	Comb	Solo	Ast	TFL	QBHits	Sfty	AV
Career					4	1	0	0	0	0	1					0	1.0	17	11	6	2	1
2023	23	DET	LB	46	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1.0	17	11	6	2	1

Jalen Carter stats:

 

ear	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Yds	IntTD	Lng	PD	FF	Fmb	FR	Yds	FRTD	Sk	Comb	Solo	Ast	TFL	QBHits	Sfty	AV
Career					4				0			2	0	0	0	0	1.5	8	4	4	2	2
2023	22	PHI	DT	98	4	0			0			2	0	0	0	0	1.5	8	4	4	2	2

 

More information that may or may not be relevant:  Patriots scored 20 pts on the Eagles, the Vikings scored 34, Bucs scored 11, Commanders hung 31 on the Eagles defense.  How good has the Lions defense been in comparison over the last two games?

Edited October 5, 2023 by Just Want A Title

[LionArkie]

27 minutes ago, General Tso said:

Doesn't have to be Carter. Could've been Gonzalez and then you take Achane with the Hooker pick.

I don't know, I kinda think Achane was one of those hindsight people and I say that thinking I mocked him more than once. I don't think anyone was clamoring for him that loudly, but I could be wrong.

And I've already posted on several I'd rather would have had so I didn't think I needed to rehash that. My point is the pair of picks (Gibbs and LaPorta) needs to be considered when evaluating Holmes on this draft. Do I think it could have been better? Yes, but that doesn't mean he didn't nail this draft. Also, the Hooker pick kind of intrigues me. I know a lot are opposed to him because he's pushing 75, but I think that is a good spot for a player like him.

[Sllim Pickens]

9 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

For me, I'm not really down on it -despite how I might be understood - I just think it could have been better. But then I realize, I forget about LaPorta. What is better for this team, Gibbs and LaPorta or Jalen Carter? That's going to be a question for long time. When I just compare Gibbs to Carter, or any of the other players, it's no contest. But that damn Laporta dude makes it tough to second guess.

Overall though, this was an excellent draft by Holmes, probably his best one imo. We got some really good talent in what I think was an overall weak draft class compared to other years.

I get that.  Also have to consider Branch or Martin in the deal as well since we had additional resources making the trade up for Branch easier to do or Martin in which pick 183 helped us move up for Martin.  Obviously Martin is a huge question mark still but have to include in the discussion. 

I agree I would like to have other players from that draft above Gibbs. We all knew Carter was a top 2 player in this draft but he still has character concerns and may cause headaches and I understand why we passed on him. It hurts seeing how productive he has been, but we are still a young up and coming team and I feel like having the right attitudes in the locker room is important.  Carter went to a team that just played in the Super Bowl with Slay, Graham, Kelce, and other vets in that locker room who have had success and can help show him how to do things.  We don't have that and given his character, who knows if it goes as well here. 

Gonzales was at the top of my list at the time and likely would be more impactful on our team this year too if not Carter.  I honestly wouldn't have been mad if we drafted Branch at 12 either.  

If there was a re-draft right now, we would likely have two guys drafted in the top 12 and 4 in the first round.  Yes we could have had a couple options that are more impactful than what we have but most teams are wishing they got Gibbs and Campbell level production from any of their picks so far. 

Since 2010, we have had 6 players that we have drafted that have signed a second contract with us (Sam Martin, Darius Slay, Taylor Decker, Tracy Walker, Frank Ragnow, and Will Harris). There have been others who did not re-sign here but went elsewhere and were productive (Suh) and some who were solid backups (Ashawn Robinson, Abdullah, Van Noy, Reiff, Glasgow, Laken Tomlinson, Agnew) but were not great here.  So to get four contributing players in one draft, on a team expected to win the division, is absolutely mind blowing to me and I likely am having that skew my views on this draft.  Holmes first draft will likely have 6 out of 7 players drafted sign second NFL contracts (if Levi stays healthy) and his second is trending towards 6 of 8 signing second contracts with Lucas and Mitchell not likely as of now.  Then the current draft has 4 in the first two rounds and he has done more in three years than all of our GMs did in 10 years prior.  To be fair, Dan Campbell and the staff have developed guys and are getting production out of Iffy and Barnes so they deserve credit but having to develop later round picks is expected.  They still need the talent to develop.  

[LionArkie]

10 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Something to consider:

Jack Campbell stats:

 

Games		Def Interceptions					Fumbles						Tackles
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Yds	IntTD	Lng	PD	FF	Fmb	FR	Yds	FRTD	Sk	Comb	Solo	Ast	TFL	QBHits	Sfty	AV
Career					4	1	0	0	0	0	1					0	1.0	17	11	6	2	1
2023	23	DET	LB	46	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1.0	17	11	6	2	1

Jalen Carter stats:

 

 

ear	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Yds	IntTD	Lng	PD	FF	Fmb	FR	Yds	FRTD	Sk	Comb	Solo	Ast	TFL	QBHits	Sfty	AV
Career					4				0			2	0	0	0	0	1.5	8	4	4	2	2
2023	22	PHI	DT	98	4	0			0			2	0	0	0	0	1.5	8	4	4	2	2

Kind of think it's an apple and oranges comparing stats from a LB and DT.