Brad Holmes Draft Fact Check: Spoiler Alert--Most of It Is Good!

[Sllim Pickens]

11 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Something to consider:

Jack Campbell stats:

 

Games		Def Interceptions					Fumbles						Tackles
Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Yds	IntTD	Lng	PD	FF	Fmb	FR	Yds	FRTD	Sk	Comb	Solo	Ast	TFL	QBHits	Sfty	AV
Career					4	1	0	0	0	0	1					0	1.0	17	11	6	2	1
2023	23	DET	LB	46	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1.0	17	11	6	2	1

Jalen Carter stats:

 

ear	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	Int	Yds	IntTD	Lng	PD	FF	Fmb	FR	Yds	FRTD	Sk	Comb	Solo	Ast	TFL	QBHits	Sfty	AV
Career					4				0			2	0	0	0	0	1.5	8	4	4	2	2
2023	22	PHI	DT	98	4	0			0			2	0	0	0	0	1.5	8	4	4	2	2

 

More information that may or may not be relevant:  Patriots scored 20 pts on the Eagles, the Vikings scored 34, Bucs scored 11, Commanders hung 31 on the Eagles defense.  How good has the Lions defense been in comparison over the last two games?

Comparing stats of a DT and a LB is about as apples to oranges as you can get.  Campbell has more counting stats than Hutch but Hutch is obviously more impactful.  I will agree the Eagles D has been less productive overall.  The point is that we have Barnes playing well so Campbell is not as needed right away and a DT like Carter would be super impactful to our team.  But also, Carter went well before Campbell so its more of a Gibbs vs Carter impact comparison. 

[Just Want A Title]

40 minutes ago, General Tso said:

Doesn't have to be Carter. Could've been Gonzalez and then you take Achane with the Hooker pick.

Hendon Hooker seems be falling into the "out of sight, out of mind" category but he really shouldn't.  If not for his ACL I suspect he would have been a fairly high first-round pick.  

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/hendon-hooker-1.html

[Just Want A Title]

The other variable is Brodric Martin.  Despite the fact he improved a lot in training camp, they are slow-rolling his development.  Yes, he came from Western Kentucky.  However he flashed a little bit despite not having the most polished technique.  I think the Lions are pulling a "James Houston with him and will probably start getting him in the lineup after the bye.  If he can wreck the inside running lanes and/or tie up two blockers the pressure that we have been seeing from our D-LIne will get even better.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Just Want A Title

[Sllim Pickens]

8 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Hendon Hooker seems be falling into the "out of sight, out of mind" category but he really shouldn't.  If not for his ACL I suspect he would have been a fairly high first-round pick.  

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/hendon-hooker-1.html

I don't think he is forgotten, he is still just an unknown.  Not to mention Goff has been good enough to not need to hope Hooker is healthy soon.  And we signed Bridgewater so we feel comfortable with our backup right now.  

I think Goff is working towards being re-signed.  Its one reason I didn't love the Hooker pick because I think we needed someone who could play/practice this year to see if there is potential enough to not spend big on Goff.  If Goff is extended, the Hooker pick becomes somewhat obsolete other than having a cheaper backup once healthy.  Albeit if Hooker is a star, we can always trade Goff after extending him for additional assets. 

[Just Want A Title]

56 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I don't think he is forgotten, he is still just an unknown.  Not to mention Goff has been good enough to not need to hope Hooker is healthy soon.  And we signed Bridgewater so we feel comfortable with our backup right now.  

I think Goff is working towards being re-signed.  Its one reason I didn't love the Hooker pick because I think we needed someone who could play/practice this year to see if there is potential enough to not spend big on Goff.  If Goff is extended, the Hooker pick becomes somewhat obsolete other than having a cheaper backup once healthy.  Albeit if Hooker is a star, we can always trade Goff after extending him for additional assets. 

You have to give Jared Goff credit for being durable and staying healthy but Teddy Bridgewater is a "right now" signing.  Hendon Hooker is probably getting a lot out of having him around and will probably transition to our #2QB next year.  If Jared Goff does miss some time we will have a QB with legit long-term #1QB potential.  

Hendon Hooker's injury, while unfortunate, might be the best thing that could have happened to him.  He has had a chance to learn the playbook, watch Jared Goff operate while working with both Jared Goff and Teddy Bridgewater in the film room.  He isn't drinking from the firehose and I think that is the correct approach given the quirkiness of his college offense.  If for whatever reason, all of the worst things happened and he had to play there enough weapons at RB and WR to allow him to manage the game and not have the entire offense on his shoulders.

[detfan782004]

1 hour ago, Just Want A Title said:

Hendon Hooker seems be falling into the "out of sight, out of mind" category but he really shouldn't.  If not for his ACL I suspect he would have been a fairly high first-round pick.  

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/hendon-hooker-1.html

No his age would have devalued him 

[detfan782004]

1 hour ago, LionArkie said:

Kind of think it's an apple and oranges comparing stats from a LB and DT.

Yea I am questioning the need to try to justify every pick. 
 

this is a reach for sure in said attempt because they don't play same position.

 

it would like comparing RB and WR in running game. 

[General Tso]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I don't think he is forgotten, he is still just an unknown.  Not to mention Goff has been good enough to not need to hope Hooker is healthy soon.  And we signed Bridgewater so we feel comfortable with our backup right now.  

I think Goff is working towards being re-signed.  Its one reason I didn't love the Hooker pick because I think we needed someone who could play/practice this year to see if there is potential enough to not spend big on Goff.  If Goff is extended, the Hooker pick becomes somewhat obsolete other than having a cheaper backup once healthy.  Albeit if Hooker is a star, we can always trade Goff after extending him for additional assets. 

Yep, pretty much this. Hooker is an insurance policy. Players like Achane help you win right now.

[Just Want A Title]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Comparing stats of a DT and a LB is about as apples to oranges as you can get.  Campbell has more counting stats than Hutch but Hutch is obviously more impactful.  I will agree the Eagles D has been less productive overall.  The point is that we have Barnes playing well so Campbell is not as needed right away and a DT like Carter would be super impactful to our team.  But also, Carter went well before Campbell so its more of a Gibbs vs Carter impact comparison. 

That depends on how you see things.  We keep talking about impact of players to their respective teams.  Jalen Carter flashed against the Bucs but has been somewhat quiet other than that game.  If you look at his Senior season at Georgia one of the knocks on him was that he would disappear for significant stretches of time.  I am not sure that is happening now but for whatever reason, his presence isn't elevating the Eagles defense in the way you might expect.  That is especially true when you consider the amount of talent that is around him.

One of the key stats with Jack Campbell: solo tackles.   He has 11 through  four games.  That tells me he is good at locating the ball and limit big plays.  He is already pretty good in coverage and has 1 PD.  He was drafted as an off-the-ball LB but has managed to notch a sack as well.  With the exception of the Seattle game, the Lions defense has taken a noticeable step forward.  Being as objective as I can be, I would say that Jack Campbell's impact to the Lions is just as significant as Jalen Carter's impact to the Eagles.  Maybe more so when you consider the overall play of their defenses.

[Just Want A Title]

7 minutes ago, General Tso said:

Yep, pretty much this. Hooker is an insurance policy. Players like Achane help you win right now.

Devon Archane has had a good couple of games.  The first one against Denver has a lot to do with the fact the their defense is historically bad right now.  He put up pretty good numbers against the Bills but the Dolphins got that back-sides handed to them.  He will take some pressure off of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.  Teams will make adjustments as they get film on him so expecting Madden numbers every week might be unrealistic.  However, if there was a weakness to the Dolphins offense it is this:  It is very reliant on speed and timing and could be described as operating with a little too much finesse.  They run just enough to keep people honest.  If their timing is disrupted and explosive scoring plays limited, they can be slowed.

[General Tso]

22 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

That depends on how you see things.  We keep talking about impact of players to their respective teams.  Jalen Carter flashed against the Bucs but has been somewhat quiet other than that game.  If you look at his Senior season at Georgia one of the knocks on him was that he would disappear for significant stretches of time.  I am not sure that is happening now but for whatever reason, his presence isn't elevating the Eagles defense in the way you might expect.  That is especially true when you consider the amount of talent that is around him.

One of the key stats with Jack Campbell: solo tackles.   He has 11 through  four games.  That tells me he is good at locating the ball and limit big plays.  He is already pretty good in coverage and has 1 PD.  He was drafted as an off-the-ball LB but has managed to notch a sack as well.  With the exception of the Seattle game, the Lions defense has taken a noticeable step forward.  Being as objective as I can be, I would say that Jack Campbell's impact to the Lions is just as significant as Jalen Carter's impact to the Eagles.  Maybe more so when you consider the overall play of their defenses.

I can't with you man.. I just can't.

[Just Want A Title]

3 minutes ago, General Tso said:

I can't with you man.. I just can't.

Don't get me wrong.  I see the physical talent of Jalen Carter.  The question is how good does Jalen Carter want to be?  Can he elevate his play to the level of a Chris Jones/Jeffrey Simmons/Quinnen Williams consistently?  Maybe.  On the other hand, he could end up being a player who never quite plays to his physical potential such as Robert Nkemdiche.  That risk is real with Jalen Carter.  I hope he succeeds but the real story with Jalen Carter is if he will play to his physical talent level consistently.  That question can't be answered in four games and it may not be answered in a single season.

[Sllim Pickens]

30 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

That depends on how you see things.  We keep talking about impact of players to their respective teams.  Jalen Carter flashed against the Bucs but has been somewhat quiet other than that game.  If you look at his Senior season at Georgia one of the knocks on him was that he would disappear for significant stretches of time.  I am not sure that is happening now but for whatever reason, his presence isn't elevating the Eagles defense in the way you might expect.  That is especially true when you consider the amount of talent that is around him.

One of the key stats with Jack Campbell: solo tackles.   He has 11 through  four games.  That tells me he is good at locating the ball and limit big plays.  He is already pretty good in coverage and has 1 PD.  He was drafted as an off-the-ball LB but has managed to notch a sack as well.  With the exception of the Seattle game, the Lions defense has taken a noticeable step forward.  Being as objective as I can be, I would say that Jack Campbell's impact to the Lions is just as significant as Jalen Carter's impact to the Eagles.  Maybe more so when you consider the overall play of their defenses.

Again, I don't use PFF as an end all be all but it tends to be a good starting point of what to expect when watching a guy on tape.  I will admit I haven't watched the tape this year but Carter has the highest grade for DT's in the league so far.  His pressures and being in the right position to impact plays is what they are grading him on.  To be honest, there isn't as much talent around him as people claim either.  Yes Jordan Davis and an aging Fletcher Cox but he is the highest rated of all of those guys.  Nobody else on the line is playing well and getting pressure, behind him he has Morrow playing well at LB and Blankenship playing solid at S but Slay has been bad this year and they aren't getting production from  the other Georgia defenders that people hype up when discussing "talent" on their D (Nolan Smith, Nakobe Dean, and Kelee Ringo).  

And again, this comparison is sort of pointless because we didn't pass on Carter for Campbell.  We passed on Brian Bresee, Kalijah Cancey and Myles Murphy for Campbell, but I am still not sure why this comparison is being made.  

[Just Want A Title]

7 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Again, I don't use PFF as an end all be all but it tends to be a good starting point of what to expect when watching a guy on tape.  I will admit I haven't watched the tape this year but Carter has the highest grade for DT's in the league so far.  His pressures and being in the right position to impact plays is what they are grading him on.  To be honest, there isn't as much talent around him as people claim either.  Yes Jordan Davis and an aging Fletcher Cox but he is the highest rated of all of those guys.  Nobody else on the line is playing well and getting pressure, behind him he has Morrow playing well at LB and Blankenship playing solid at S but Slay has been bad this year and they aren't getting production from  the other Georgia defenders that people hype up when discussing "talent" on their D (Nolan Smith, Nakobe Dean, and Kelee Ringo).  

And again, this comparison is sort of pointless because we didn't pass on Carter for Campbell.  We passed on Brian Bresee, Kalijah Cancey and Myles Murphy for Campbell, but I am still not sure why this comparison is being made.  

I would say that having Josh Sweat (very under-rated), Jordan Davis Hassan Reddick, Zach Cunningham and and Darius slay probably doesn't hurt. 

[LionArkie]

12 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Again, I don't use PFF as an end all be all but it tends to be a good starting point of what to expect when watching a guy on tape.  I will admit I haven't watched the tape this year but Carter has the highest grade for DT's in the league so far.  His pressures and being in the right position to impact plays is what they are grading him on.  To be honest, there isn't as much talent around him as people claim either.  Yes Jordan Davis and an aging Fletcher Cox but he is the highest rated of all of those guys.  Nobody else on the line is playing well and getting pressure, behind him he has Morrow playing well at LB and Blankenship playing solid at S but Slay has been bad this year and they aren't getting production from  the other Georgia defenders that people hype up when discussing "talent" on their D (Nolan Smith, Nakobe Dean, and Kelee Ringo).  

And again, this comparison is sort of pointless because we didn't pass on Carter for Campbell.  We passed on Brian Bresee, Kalijah Cancey and Myles Murphy for Campbell, but I am still not sure why this comparison is being made.  

Myles Murphy...I forgot about that guy. I was high on him. How's he doing this year?