BDL 2023 Week 12: Lancaster Werewolves @ Camden Hood Rats

[RedGold]

BDL 2023 Week  12

Match:  Lancaster Werewolves @ Camden Hood Rats

Away Owner:   @rackcs

Home Owner:     @TedLavie

Vote for who you think would win the game.

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Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[RedGold]

Lancaster

QB: Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
WR: Michael Pittman Jr.
WR: DeVante Parker
WR: Tyler Boyd
TE: Juwan Johnson
LT: Braxton Jones
LG: Steve Avila
C : Mitch Morse
RG: Robert Hunt
RT: Jawaan Taylor

RB: David Montgomery
RB: Tyler Allgeier
WR: Cedric Tillman
WR: Skyy Moore
TE: Chigoziem Okonkwo
TE: Tucker Kraft
OL: Joseph Noteboom
OL: Sam Cosmi

DE: T.J. Watt
DT: Kenny Clark
DT: Justin Madubuike
DE: John Franklin-Myers
LB: Fred Warner
LB: Willie Gay Jr.
CB: Jalen Ramsey
CB: Jaire Alexander
CB: Brandon Stephens
S: Minkah Fitzpatrick
S: Jason Pinnock

EDGE: Preston Smith
EDGE: Ogbo Okoronkwo
INT: Tedarrell Slaton
DL: Calais Campbell
LB: Eric Kendricks
CB: Tyrique Stevenson
CB: Akayleb Evans
S: Damontae Kazee

 

 

 

 

 

Camden

 

QB Tua Tagovailoa
RB Zach Moss
WR AJ Brown
WR Nico Collins
TE Kyle Pitts
TE Tyler Higbee
LT Dion Dawkins
LG Quentin Nelson
C Bradley Bozeman
RG Quinn Meinerz
RT Lane Johnson

Bench

RB Austin Ekeler
RB Khalil Herbert
WR Cooper Kupp
WR Gabe Davis
WR Trey Palmer
TE Gerald Everett
OL Zach Tom
OL Teven Jenkins

 

RE Josh Allen
DT Aaron Donald
NT Harrison Phillips
LE Montez Sweat
LB Divine Deablo
LB Nicholas Morrow
LB / SS Jacquan Brisker
CB L’Jarius Sneed
CB Rasul Douglas
CB Jonathan Jones
FS Malik Hooker

Bench

Edge Carl Granderson
Edge Boye Mafe
INT Osa Odighizuwa
INT A’Shawn Robinson 
LB Frankie Luvu
CB Darious Williams
CB Asante Samuel Jr.
S Marcus Epps

Edited December 3, 2023 by RedGold

[RedGold]

Lancaster Offense:
The first matchup between these two teams resulted in a tie game. It was a hard fought battle, and we expect Camden to run a similar scheme and approach against us. Overall, how we defeated Hungary last week will be an overall similar approach to this week with some nuances. I expect them to focus Douglass on Pittman again, and utilize the Under to get Donald free to attack the RPO. If they have to implement off man coverage again to do this, our short throw game will continue to be ideal. Camden didn’t have to deal with Montgomery last time, and that will be a big boon to our offense and what we can do with Gibbs.  It’s a good game for misdirection and multiple options. We expect a spy on Hurts, which means they’re a man down otherwise for the other 10 players on offense. 

R/P and Formations expectations:
>55% Pass to <45% run (50% inside to 50% outside)
20 pers - 30%
21 pers - 35%
11/12 pers - 20%
22 pers - 15%

Gibbs - 75%/Montgomery 65%/Alleghier remaining

Rushing Downs: We expect to see a lot of 4-3 fronts (including under from last time), so we will work on countering that for run downs. Expect plenty of TE help (including more playing time from Tucker Kraft to compensate for this. He’s a solid blocker). Expect us to see how the B gap opens up from this.We also might see our tackles try and push the ends outside more, freeing up Avila/Hunt to have room to pull and help on Donald from the side. On outside runs, you’ll see some utilization of Kraft in a “pulling fullback” type role from motion. This will give him a head start to getting outside with our runners to attack the linebackers. 

Passing Downs: Again, to bring success in our offense, look for the chips (by TE or RB) on Allen/Sweat depending on play call. If Camden continues to play off man due to defense, we will continue our short to intermediate routes that we have had recent success with. Again, I expect Douglas to shadow Pittman, so getting the ball in his hands might be tougher, but we can get creative with slants and screens. I would expect a good number of screens to Gibbs as well to put him in space to make plays. We are encouraged by the development of Cedric Tillman recently as well. Look to see him on the field more in lieu of Moore and Brown as we look to have physical passing downs. His size on the field with Pittman will create the short mismatches we need in off man defense. We also want to get our tight ends involved against the linebackers and safeties as we see favorable matchups there.

Lancaster Defense:
We tied against this team earlier in the season but we're not taking this matchup for granted, this team is much improved on offense, adding many impact players since then. This team has a ton of weapons so we know we're not going to shut down everyone all of the time. We think we have the secondary to contain these weapons as well as possible and to allow our defensive line to create disruption up front. We think that getting sacks and rattling Tua will be the biggest key to our defensive success.

With our secondary back and healthy, we're going back to our usual man coverage looks. We'll have Jalen Ramsey covering A.J. Brown, Jaire Alexander on Cooper Kupp, and Brandon Stephens on Nico Collins. We’re going to have Fred Warner shadow Ekeler in man coverage. When Higbee is on the field, Willie Gay Jr. will draw him in coverage. We want our safeties and their versatility to be a key to our coverage, they will play different roles throughout the game. They will align in a 2 high shell throughout the game. From this look we can have both drop back into 2 deep zones, one can come up as a robber with the other hanging back. Occasionally when one of them comes up, they will take man coverage responsibility from Gay and Gay will play the underneath middle zone. When Pitts is on the field, Gay and a safety will bracket cover him. We think we can operate out of the same base look but by changing what our safeties do from down to down, we should be able to shake things up slightly play to play and make Tua think and process a little bit more before he can pull the trigger on his throws.

We’re going to have Fred Warner keyed in on Ekeler throughout the game as a receiver and runner so that should limit his effectiveness. On top of that we will regularly be having another safety come down into the box to provide an additional man down there. Camden has some strong talent on the OL but we think they can be vulnerable to interior pressure so we want to push the pocket from the inside this game against Bozeman and Meinerz and make Tua operate outside of the pocket. We will run some stunts and things of that nature to get Watt going against Meinerz. We will feature our usual heavy rotation on the defensive line to keep all of our guys fresh and ready to get to the QB. JFM will rotate inside or come off the field on obvious passing downs with Preston Smith and Ogbo Okoronkwo coming in as designated pass rushers. Tedarrell Slaton will come in on obvious run downs as well to add some beef in the middle.

 

 

 

 

 

Camden

Offense

Balanced offense – We welcome back Zach Moss in the starting lineup today with the aspirations of running the ball. Lancaster starting DL is top tier but its bench isn’t, so we want to tire them out. We expect our defense to seriously limit Lancaster offense so we’re fine with a slow, field position battle type of game. We will try to mostly attack Frankin-Myers in the running game, especially when lined up next to Kenny Clark. Moss and Ekeler will split touches, with Ekeler more present on passing downs. Herbert will get a few touches as a change of pace guy.

Protect Tua – We want to avoid turnovers and one way to help prevent that is keeping our pocket clean. This is not going to be an easy task against a DL of this quality, but we will do our best. Higbee will put a chip on TJ Watt more often than not, especially if he plays against Dawkins. If Lane is out, Zach Tom comes in and Higbee will help him against Watt on every play. Inside we think we have one of the best guard duos in BDL and one of them will help Bozeman against Madubuike while the other gets Clark. Bozeman is responsible for blitz pickup.

Use our depth – Lancaster doesn’t just have a nice front 4. Our usual suspects in Brown, Collins and Pitts/Ekeler will get a decent amount of targets but we expect Lancaster to limit them with Ramsey, Minkah as coverage support and Warner. So we will look for additional support from our bench and test Lancaster depth by bringing a lot of sub-packages giving Lancaster D fits. Namely:

11 formations (30%) – our other main sub-formation with Kupp in for Pitts. We want to test non-Ramsey CBs in single coverage and Kupp is the perfect weapon for that. Kupp is also a really good weapon against zone. Expect a lot of bunch formations out of our 3WR package to beat zone.

10 formations (10%) – with Lancaster probably switching to zone D, we will leave have our RB help in pass pro (whether that’s by staying or going on a delayed route) and attack Pinnock/whoever is starting at S across Minkah. Second look will be in the intermediate area. On passing downs only

21 formations (10%) – For 2nd and mid. We aren’t fans of Lancaster depth at S and LB and we think we can get a favorable matchup if we lineup Pitts, Ekeler and Herbert in the same formation. This formation will be used to run or pass and we will move Pitts and Ekeler pre-snap a lot to see what Warner does and adjust our play to avoid him (run inside if we can have him follow Pitts/Ekeler outside, pass to Pitts/Ekeler if he stays in the box).

13 formations (10%) – For 1st downs only. We can use Pitts athleticism and move him around the formation pre-snap to see who moves with him. Warner? Then we isolate Pitts outside and run against a Warner less front. Gay or another LB? Then we isolate Pitts outside and audible a pass play targeting him. A safety? Then we bring him back around the LoS and run the ball or have a PA called for a deep bomb to AJ Brown

 

Defense

Stop Lancaster backfield – Lancaster offense does one thing but does it very well and that’s the RPO offense. With Hurts and their Lions’ backfield they want to run on you over and over again, but we are prepared for that and want to force them to beat us through the air. First, we will stack up the box and always have one more man in the box than them. Second, we will prioritize gap discipline amongst the DL, DL which will heavily rotate to keep everyone fresh. We want our DL to focus on the run first. Third, in man, we will always have one man keying on the RB and on the QB (responsibilities below). Finally, in zone, we will keep everything in front of us to limit rushing gains by Lancaster offense.

Mixing zone and man – We think the biggest mismatch in this game is our DL against Lancaster OL so we feel good about playing more zone defense today. Expect a 60-40 split between zone defense (mainly cover 3) and man defense (cover 1 man). Whatever the scheme, Sneed/Douglas will follow Pittman/Boyd around (whether outside or in the slot) to disguise our scheme. In man, here are the main responsibilities:

Pittman - Sneed
Boyd – Douglas
Slot – J.Jones
Hurts spy – Morrow
Gibbs – Brisker
Tight End - Deablo

Formation versatility – Lancaster offers a unique set of formations, but we feel like we can matchup with their versatility. Here are the following defensive formations we will use:

Against 11 – Standard nickel package with Jonathan Jones
Against 12 – Base package with Luvu at SLB in for Jones – blitz formation
Against 21 – Epps comes in for Jonathan Jones and mans Montgommery
Against 20 – Epps comes in for Deablo and mans Montgommery
Against 40 – Samuel comes in for Deablo and we play man coverage with QB and RB spies.

Edited December 3, 2023 by RedGold

[Scoundrel]

@rackcs which corner is coming off the field against 2TE?

[TedLavie]

Jaire out for Lancaster. Might answer your question @Scoundrel

[Scoundrel]

This was a tough one. Game of the week rightfully so both teams already in playoff form with their plans. I am going with the home team in Camden. I liked what Lancaster did with their running game and they will have some good success. Ultimately I think Camden has enough fire power in the passing game to be the difference. Although Zack Moss was underwhelming this week he has been solid this season. 

[Blue]

Cooper Kupp getting benched feels sad but it's the right move with the way he's played the last month and a half.

I think Lancaster gets theirs early in this game and I like their gameplan. Depth is an issue, but with Camden expecting zone and getting man coverage, as well as Lancaster's creative offensive gameplan, I'm going with the Werewolves in a triumphant divisional title win.