Playoff Picture - Thread the Needle

[JibjeResearch]

19 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Every day that passes, the more I think you’re a ChatGPT Bot or something 

lolz ahahahah... bro... I'm a fuken human man lolz ahahah🤣 

I analyze the political economy and trade cryptos for a living, analyzing the Bears is just a hobby for me...'cause I'm a big fan...lolz🤣😁

[StLunatic88]

Rough loss there, but this thread is not about that, so we arent going to bog it down

But there is a chance, a VERY long shot (like 3%), but did you watch around the league this weekend? Its wild this year.

Its basically the same teams left in contention as last week, with now the Giants still hanging on (I omitted as I thought they would lose on Mondaynight)

• Tampa Bay (7-7): vJAX, vNO, @CAR
• Minnesota (7-7): vDET, vGB, @DET
• Los Angles (7-7): vNO, @NYG, @SF
• New Orleans (7-7): @LAR, @TB, vATL
• Seattle* (6-7): vPHI, @TEN, vPIT, @ARZ
• Atlanta (6-8): vIND, @CHI, @NO
• Green Bay (6-8): @CAR, @MIN, vCHI
• Chicago (5-9): vARZ, vATL, @GB
• New York (5-9): @PHI, vLAR, vPHI

First off, we have to win out, new needed to starting last week, but now we NEED to.

But after that, I think we should be hoping for Seattle to lose tonight. It doesnt actually matter I dont think, but with the rest of their schedule, this is the hardest game left for them. After that, we would just need them to slip up once instead of twice

After MNF, the biggest focus needs to be on the Rams/Saints game. Last week I was thinking we needed the Rams to lose, and then the Saints to get the loss later. But now I think Ive flipped, as if we end up in a tie at 8-9 with GB/MIN plus two of the South teams (like NO/ATL) we would end up with the short end of the stick due to the Tiebreaker that uses the Divisional breakers to send the highest Divisional teams tied first. Were a long way from that, but its something to think about here. If the Rams get this one, then we are hoping for another Devito upset the next week, plus the Niners to be fighting for the 1 seed bye in week 18. 

After that, we dont know what it is we want the Vikings to do yet, but whatever they do this week (W/L) we want them to do that all the way to the end of the season. If they start splitting wins with the Lions and the Packers, we are in trouble real quick. (honestly, if they win out, we may end up with the  Sunday Night game in week 18 with the final WC on the line)

There isnt one path, but they all need alot of teams to lose a whole bunch. But Id gotta admit, even the fact that we can have these crazy scenarios to talk about in week 16 is something after the start we had this year.

[StLunatic88]

Alright, all games completed for Week 16, and the only team dropping out of the Wild Card Race was the Giants, We did what we were supposed to with a Win, so we are technically still alive. 8 Teams left for 5 spots;

• Tampa Bay (8-7): vNO, @CAR
• Los Angles (8-7): @NYG, @SF
• Seattle (8-7): vPIT, @ARZ
• Minnesota (7-8): vGB, @DET
• Atlanta (7-8): @CHI, @NO
• Green Bay (7-8): @MIN, vCHI
• New Orleans (7-8): @TB, vATL
• Chicago (6-9): vATL, @GB

Looking at the NFC South, Obviously we need to beat the Falcons, but I think we just want Tampa to take that division, and do so by winning this week over the Saints. Would knock NO below us as we hold the Conference Tiebreaker over the Saints (we would need to be in a multi-team tiebreak to even get in, so Head to Head doesnt matter)

After that, we need the West (LAR/SEA) to lose out. Pretty cut and dry here, if they get a win in the last two weeks, it likely knocks us out (as the winner of GB/Min will take Tiebreakers over us for the 7th seed) So both Pittsburg getting off the mat this week was big, and the Ravens keeping the Niners fighting for the #1 Seed were huge for us. So this week, we need the Steelers and Giants just as much as we need the Bears to win.

And lastly for week 17, its the NFC North Matchup. Packers @ Vikings. the winner doesnt actually matter, we can get in with either of them winning this week. But to me its pretty obvious we want Minnesota to win, not just to see the Packers lose, but because we would still have some say in that scenario. If the Packers win, we could still beat them in Week 18, and still be passed up by either the Packers or Vikings on Tiebreakers, common games instead of Conference Wins like against other teams) Not to mention, Detrot has almost nothing to play for at this point, all but locked into the 3 seed. So we dont want to be relying on a Lions team who will likely be resting guys in week 18 to take out the Vikings for us.

A long shot? Sure, but were still alive so Im going to keep doing it

 

Week 17 Rooting interests; Bears, Steelers, Giants, Bucs, Vikings and Jaguars (lock up #1)

 

 

[beardown3231]

With the Saints (and Rams) win today, the Bears are eliminated

[StLunatic88]

9 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

With the Saints (and Rams) win today, the Bears are eliminated

I don’t think the Saints mattered. Our only way in would have been a multi-team tie for the 7 seed, so the H2H doesn’t matter much. It was the Rams that knock us out. 

[beardown3231]

48 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I don’t think the Saints mattered. Our only way in would have been a multi-team tie for the 7 seed, so the H2H doesn’t matter much. It was the Rams that knock us out. 

I thought I saw something that for the Bears to get in, one of the pieces of the formula was Tampa beating NO today. I could be wrong

EDIT: I saw it on gmfb. I'm too dumb to post photos but I took a picture of it when I saw it. It says: Bears win out, Rams lose out, Seahawks lose out, Saints lose to TB week 17, Packers lose to MIN week 17

Edited December 31, 2023 by beardown3231

[CWood21]

7 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

I thought I saw something that for the Bears to get in, one of the pieces of the formula was Tampa beating NO today. I could be wrong

EDIT: I saw it on gmfb. I'm too dumb to post photos but I took a picture of it when I saw it. It says: Bears win out, Rams lose out, Seahawks lose out, Saints lose to TB week 17, Packers lose to MIN week 17

https://nflplayoffscenarios.com

Technically speaking, they're still alive.  They need to win out, and have GB/MIN tie and both lose in Week 18 as well as another Seahawks loss.

[StLunatic88]

38 minutes ago, beardown3231 said:

I thought I saw something that for the Bears to get in, one of the pieces of the formula was Tampa beating NO today. I could be wrong

EDIT: I saw it on gmfb. I'm too dumb to post photos but I took a picture of it when I saw it. It says: Bears win out, Rams lose out, Seahawks lose out, Saints lose to TB week 17, Packers lose to MIN week 17

If it would have been just us and NO tied, then they could take H2H. But our only chances were to get in with atleast a 3 way tie (LAR and SEA couldn’t have less than 8 wins) so if the Saints were also to tie with us, but not win the South, the first Tiebreaker we could use would be Conference Record (since we didn’t play the Rams or the Seahawks) and in the scenario(S) needed for us to even tie, we would have had a 7-5 Conference record, and the best the Saints could have been was 5-7. (Along with the West teams being 6-6)