2018 Draft Thread I

[John232]

JPP getting traded is a turn. Still think NYG is inclined to go QB and I think Cleveland will trade back at 4 with someone else. Odds of Barkley dropping to us went up imo. 

[y2lamanaki]

3 minutes ago, John232 said:

JPP getting traded is a turn. Still think NYG is inclined to go QB and I think Cleveland will trade back at 4 with someone else. Odds of Barkley dropping to us went up imo. 

I don't think that the odds have changed at all. I still think 0% chance. If we get Barkley (something I also don't think very likely), it will have to come via a trade up. I don't think he gets past #4. 

[big9erfan]

9 minutes ago, John232 said:

JPP getting traded is a turn. Still think NYG is inclined to go QB and I think Cleveland will trade back at 4 with someone else. Odds of Barkley dropping to us went up imo. 

Maybe Chubb becomes an option for them now.

[John232]

3 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

I don't think that the odds have changed at all. I still think 0% chance. If we get Barkley (something I also don't think very likely), it will have to come via a trade up. I don't think he gets past #4. 

If Cleveland doesn't trade back and the Giants don't go Chubb (or Barkley, duh), then yeah, absolutely no way he drops. But I expect Cleveland to trade down, and if Rosen was picked at 2, then I think the odds of him dropping go up significantly. 

 

[big9erfan]

26 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

I don't think that the odds have changed at all. I still think 0% chance. If we get Barkley (something I also don't think very likely), it will have to come via a trade up. I don't think he gets past #4. 

I've been thinking the Browns take Barkley and Darnold (or maybe a different QB if they like another one more).  I still think that. I think odds for THAT went up a bit because now I think there's a chance the Giants take Chubb instead of Barkley. I do think there will be one or more trade ups in the top 8 and that 4 QBs will go.  But it's almost impossible for me to think Barkley will not be one of the other 4 to go aside from the 4 QBs.

To me 4 QBs plus Chubb and Barkley are very high probabilites for 6 of the top 8 guys to go in the draft. Aside from those guys I'm up in the air about who the other 2 will be. I've always had Ward as my choice for our pick.  But a whole bunch of mocks I've seen lately now have him in the top 8. And I see Minkah and Nelson there a lot too. One of those three won't make it, but I[m pretty convninced that Chubb or Barkley will not be the one to drop to 9.

 

[y2lamanaki]

19 minutes ago, John232 said:

If Cleveland doesn't trade back and the Giants don't go Chubb (or Barkley, duh), then yeah, absolutely no way he drops. But I expect Cleveland to trade down, and if Rosen was picked at 2, then I think the odds of him dropping go up significantly. 

 

Well, it's the Browns so I guess never say never, but I don't see them trading down from either spot. Unless they have 4 QBs ranked the same and feel comfortable trading back from #1. Three QBs will almost certainly go 1, 2, 3. Even if Giants want Chubb instead of a QB, they can trade back to #5 with Denver and find him there. Therefore, only way I can see Barkley past #4 is if the Bills/Cards become desperate for QB#4. And I don't see that at #4.

[John232]

idk man, I feel the Browns trading back is a highly likely scenario. They have a gaping hole at left tackle and they're not going to over draft one at 4, but if they can move back with Miami or Buffalo, they'll pick up all the capital they need and still get their second biggest need out of the way at an appropriate value. 

[Forge]

1 hour ago, y2lamanaki said:

I don't think that the odds have changed at all. I still think 0% chance. If we get Barkley (something I also don't think very likely), it will have to come via a trade up. I don't think he gets past #4. 

There is a scenario where I think he gets past 4 - namely:

Cle - Darnold

NYG - Chubb

NYJ - Rosen

Cle - trades #4 to Buffalo for 12 /21 and more. Buffalo is said to like Josh Allen, and Denver / Elway has done a *lot* of scouting on Allen, including as senior bowl coaches, and elway went to his bowl game. So Buffalo moves up to get ahead of Denver, and Buffalo then takes Allen. 

Den - Mayfield, possibly, but I think more likely Nelson at this point? 

Now, if he does get through this top 5 in this manner, there's no way he makes it past 6 or 7. Indy or Tampa would scoop him up in a heart beat. So I agree that we would still need to trade up for him, and I don't know who would be willing to deal and I don't think we would give up the picks necessary to do it. 

I agree that there's 0% chance he falls to 9, same for Nelson. I think the guys that we are looking at have largely remained the same - Minkah / Edmunds / Ward / Roquan. Nothing has changed there in my opinion, even with the trade. 

[John232]

Stop murdering my dream. I moved so many players in my fantasy league to get to the point where I could bid and win Barkley. Then Jimmy G did his thing. Silver lining is I picked up Jimmy G the second the trade happened...

 

But this is my dream. I will go Guts on this if I have too. Start mailing stuff to the 49ers everyday if I have too. 

[Forge]

Just to piggy back on my earlier quote - 

If Denver then takes mayfield, we can say Colts and Tampa go Barkley / Nelson in whatever order. 

For chicago, I think we can rule out a cornerback in Ward or Minkah since they re-signed both Prince and Fuller. They also signed every free agent receiver on the market, so I think we can rule out a surprising wide receiver selection. At this point, I'd say Edmunds is the choice. 

This then puts us at an interesting spot at 9, and a decent trade up partner for Cleveland after their trade down with Buffalo. They send us #12 and maybe a back end second that they get from Buffalo, move up to grab Minkah or Ward. We slide back to 12. This likely rules out Roquan, as I have to imagine that the Raiders or Miami are taking him. We will say the Raiders take him at 10. At 11, I really don't know what Miami does. Vita Vea could make some sense with the release of Suh. I think Ward could make sense as well. So could an offensive lineman. 

But this still leaves us at a decent spot at 12 to land Ward, Derwin James if you're so inclined, LVE if you're really in love with him. Maybe we hit up the offensive line, or maybe here's where we take Landry. Still a lot of possibility here, and you could theoretically still land a premium prospect like Ward, who I think is one of the top 8 guys in this draft. 

[Gravity]

I was in denial the we could get Calvin Johnson at #11 lol. I would go through the draft order and see which players the top 10 teams could get aside from Megatron ?

[John232]

31 minutes ago, Forge said:

Just to piggy back on my earlier quote - 

If Denver then takes mayfield, we can say Colts and Tampa go Barkley / Nelson in whatever order. 

For chicago, I think we can rule out a cornerback in Ward or Minkah since they re-signed both Prince and Fuller. They also signed every free agent receiver on the market, so I think we can rule out a surprising wide receiver selection. At this point, I'd say Edmunds is the choice. 

This then puts us at an interesting spot at 9, and a decent trade up partner for Cleveland after their trade down with Buffalo. They send us #12 and maybe a back end second that they get from Buffalo, move up to grab Minkah or Ward. We slide back to 12. This likely rules out Roquan, as I have to imagine that the Raiders or Miami are taking him. We will say the Raiders take him at 10. At 11, I really don't know what Miami does. Vita Vea could make some sense with the release of Suh. I think Ward could make sense as well. So could an offensive lineman. 

But this still leaves us at a decent spot at 12 to land Ward, Derwin James if you're so inclined, LVE if you're really in love with him. Maybe we hit up the offensive line, or maybe here's where we take Landry. Still a lot of possibility here, and you could theoretically still land a premium prospect like Ward, who I think is one of the top 8 guys in this draft. 

yeah agreed. And drafts usually play out like this too, someone unexpected or unwarranted goes high. Elite prospect drops. Last year it was Malik Hooker and Jonathan Allen.

Lost in my love for Barkley, is that I really, really want us to trade back with someone. Even if it's not a huge move back. But I think acquiring another second, third or even fourth will go a long long ways with us. 

 

I also think how teams view Lamar Jackson, and to a lesser extent, Rudolph, becomes pretty integral to our trade market. Teams like San Diego, Miami, Pittsburgh (not their type) and some other teams i'd imagine are going to seriously consider taking one of those two. Maybe not at 9, but if we trade back to 12 and want to trade back a  second time, I could see a team wanting to move up to 12(ish) to grab one of them. 

[big9erfan]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

Just to piggy back on my earlier quote - 

If Denver then takes mayfield, we can say Colts and Tampa go Barkley / Nelson in whatever order. 

For chicago, I think we can rule out a cornerback in Ward or Minkah since they re-signed both Prince and Fuller. They also signed every free agent receiver on the market, so I think we can rule out a surprising wide receiver selection. At this point, I'd say Edmunds is the choice. 

This then puts us at an interesting spot at 9, and a decent trade up partner for Cleveland after their trade down with Buffalo. They send us #12 and maybe a back end second that they get from Buffalo, move up to grab Minkah or Ward. We slide back to 12. This likely rules out Roquan, as I have to imagine that the Raiders or Miami are taking him. We will say the Raiders take him at 10. At 11, I really don't know what Miami does. Vita Vea could make some sense with the release of Suh. I think Ward could make sense as well. So could an offensive lineman. 

But this still leaves us at a decent spot at 12 to land Ward, Derwin James if you're so inclined, LVE if you're really in love with him. Maybe we hit up the offensive line, or maybe here's where we take Landry. Still a lot of possibility here, and you could theoretically still land a premium prospect like Ward, who I think is one of the top 8 guys in this draft. 

Yeah. I hated the res-sign of Fuller since I thought they might take Ward and give us a chance for Nelson. Still if Ward fell to us I'd be happy with that pick unless we wanted Edmund or Smith or Landry or Davenport more. Not sure I do, but I trust our management so I'm good whichever way they decide to go.

[big9erfan]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

Just to piggy back on my earlier quote - 

If Denver then takes mayfield, we can say Colts and Tampa go Barkley / Nelson in whatever order. 

For chicago, I think we can rule out a cornerback in Ward or Minkah since they re-signed both Prince and Fuller. They also signed every free agent receiver on the market, so I think we can rule out a surprising wide receiver selection. At this point, I'd say Edmunds is the choice. 

This then puts us at an interesting spot at 9, and a decent trade up partner for Cleveland after their trade down with Buffalo. They send us #12 and maybe a back end second that they get from Buffalo, move up to grab Minkah or Ward. We slide back to 12. This likely rules out Roquan, as I have to imagine that the Raiders or Miami are taking him. We will say the Raiders take him at 10. At 11, I really don't know what Miami does. Vita Vea could make some sense with the release of Suh. I think Ward could make sense as well. So could an offensive lineman. 

But this still leaves us at a decent spot at 12 to land Ward, Derwin James if you're so inclined, LVE if you're really in love with him. Maybe we hit up the offensive line, or maybe here's where we take Landry. Still a lot of possibility here, and you could theoretically still land a premium prospect like Ward, who I think is one of the top 8 guys in this draft. 

Draft days are always a surprise. Sometimes quiet when you're expecting a lot of action or just the opposite.  But with 4 really good QB prospects and different teams ranking them differently, at least that's what people are saying now, it seems like it can't help but be an interesting day. And there's still a chance we figure into the action.  I'd love getting one of the guys you mentioned at 12 and picking up an extra decent pick in the second.

[big9erfan]

2 hours ago, Gravity said:

I was in denial the we could get Calvin Johnson at #11 lol. I would go through the draft order and see which players the top 10 teams could get aside from Megatron ?

I think we all have a draft crush like that. I kept thinking there was a way Von Miller could fall to us. At least my dream was crushed early when he went second.