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Who misses out on a QB?


minutemancl

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I think the Bears, Washingtons, Vikings, and one of Vegas/Denver come away from this with top QBs.

 

To me, the Pats are the real wildcard.  Their roster is so bare and they're so early in the entire franchise "reset" of the post-Bill era, i think their staff are in a unique position to not take a QB unless it's someone that they fully 110% want to throw their entire careers behind.  Which...i'm not sure sure is going to be the guy available to them at 3.

 

The Giants, i just don't see their ownership being cool with flushing $92M+ on Danny Dimes and then letting them take a "mulligan" on the QB thing like that.  I feel like the leash that they've earned, is probably more related to the idea that they can seriously win with Daniel Jones if he stays healthy and the rest of the roster has better luck with that too.

 

The Vikings basically can't afford to not come away from this draft with a top QB.  I think they're by far the most desperately postured team right now.  You can't start Sam Darnold.  That's goofy and stupid.  You can't waste a season like that when you've got veterans that only have so many years left in their prime and/or career, period.

 

Raiders are kind of positioned to grab a guy if they're available but Minshew is a fine stopgap locked in for two years and AOC still exists even if he's probably not the answer.  They seem best postured to just take a top QB if the price is right, but not really have a ton of pressure to pull the trigger if it doesn't fall right for them.

 

Broncos are in a bizarre situation.  They're not very well positioned to get a top guy.  But they clearly need something.  It's hard not to feel like they're more of a candidate to just let Payton take his pick of the next tier of QBs and have the hubris to think he can mold them into a superstar.  Wherever that pick ends up happening.  Late 1st/Early 2nd?  Team seems like it's got enough holes that making the big swing to go up and get a QB is less likely...but if Payton really loves a guy like McCarthy...i wouldn't rule it out i guess.  I feel like they're basically in a weird game of chicken with the Raiders, to see who blinks first.  The Vikings clearly blink before anyone else.  But that 4th QB is where the game really begins...

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3 hours ago, Danger said:

More often than not "next year's QB class looks way better!!"

Who are we looking at? 

Ewers? Sure I can see him being a top kinda guy
Beck? Screams day 2 guy who becomes long term backup to me
Milroe? Incredibly raw
Shedeur Sanders? Again gut feeling but he seems like he'll be a guy who's good in college and sucks in the NFL IMO
Drew Allar? I'm a Penn State alumni, and the dude didn't really show me any reason to believe in him last year.

The thing is...next year's class is lacking that obvious, years out "headline talent"...but it's got plenty of guys with the potential to put themselves in the conversation.

 

I've said it before and i'll say it again...where were Jayden Daniels and JJ McCarthy on people's radars this time last year?  Neither guy was even remotely on the Top-5 pick scope.  Guys always rise and fall.  A decidedly "weak" QB draft produced the greatest QB of our generation.  Stuff happens.

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Patriots will trade back from 3, they won't draft their guy this year.

Giants at 6 reaching for QB4-5 would be the perfect cycle for the giants.

Chargers/Cardinals are gonna be the other teams to trade back but only one will be able to (arizona if one QB desperate feels the pressure *COUGH* Broncos *COUGH*) or Minnesota if for some reason their deal with the patriots falls through.

Titans have Levis but if for some reason *their* no.1 QB falls I can see them pulling the trigger. would take a miracle for Daniels to get to 7 though.

Jets *could* but I feel like o-line is a safe long term and short term pick for them.

The Broncos do not have the ammo but **** it Sean Payton and General Patton are on the hot seat and make very dumb decisions.

Raiders will go BPA unless their guy falls and I doubt he does.

Saints believe in their used Carr.

Seahawks are a sneaky pick to take a QB (geno's 33) but they do believe in him.

Steelers have their QBOTF on the roster until next year anyway.

Vikings should get their guy at 3 but if their deal falls through, 23 ain't gonna be a QB.

Bucs could take a guy to mentor behind baker long term since he's a terrible long term bet.

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15 hours ago, Danger said:

More often than not "next year's QB class looks way better!!"

Who are we looking at? 

Ewers? Sure I can see him being a top kinda guy
Beck? Screams day 2 guy who becomes long term backup to me
Milroe? Incredibly raw
Shedeur Sanders? Again gut feeling but he seems like he'll be a guy who's good in college and sucks in the NFL IMO
Drew Allar? I'm a Penn State alumni, and the dude didn't really show me any reason to believe in him last year.

My whole point is that, while it doesn't look great now, we don't know what it will look like next year. Someone you didn't even mention could make huge leaps. Remember when the groupthink was that Spencer Rattler and Kedon Slovis would be the top names at QB either this year or last year?

Personally, I'm not a fan of Ewers. I think Beck is just a backup quality QB. Milroe is not a QB in the NFL. I do really like Shedeur Sanders (his numbers under pressure are super impressive and that is a highly translatable skill) and Riley Leonard (I expect him to put his name on the map, going from Duke to ND). Then there are guys like Conner Weigman, Cam Ward, and Donovan Smith who could make real names for themselves this year. You just never know.

Bottom line is you don't make draft decisions based on the perceived talent availability of next year's draft. You're trying to predict the unpredictable. Evaluate the talent in this draft and compare it only with the other talent in the same draft.

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10 minutes ago, minutemancl said:

Bottom line is you don't make draft decisions based on the perceived talent availability of next year's draft. You're trying to predict the unpredictable. Evaluate the talent in this draft and compare it only with the other talent in the same draft.

Any GM worth their salt is always looking ahead when it comes to roster building, And that includes draft classes.

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2 minutes ago, Danger said:

Any GM worth their salt is always looking ahead when it comes to roster building, And that includes draft classes.

Are you sure about that? I could see a case where maybe it'd be a best practice, but with all the variables that are unknown and the volatility/short leash these FO staff and coaches have, are you sure they are looking ahead that deeply? I'm sure they know a few top names, and they definitely catch glimpses of some guys on tape while watching current prospects, but I don't think there is anything done beyond that. Cursory level stuff.

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