Lunatic's Best Case Scenario Mock

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

8 hours ago, Sugashane said:

I wasn't saying otherwise either. I outbid HOU for Autry and BUF for Epenesa. I've been pounding the table for stacking the OL and DL for years, so I get it. lol

But I DO believe if you are picking offense or defense you go offense with Williams and offense. I think losing 30-28 hurts his confidence in himself and his supporting cast way less than winning 13-10 helps him. I'm sure Tru knew damn good and well the defense was why they were a threat for the Super Bowl, he knew he was mediocre. By the last year in CHI he didn't have any of that same swagger he did coming in. Him going 4-8 hurt his pride I'm sure, ending the season with 12 starts and only having 7 TDs (0 rushing either) and having 7 INTs, now THAT hurts development. They went 5-11 with a top 10 defense. He knew he was killing the team I'm sure. So did Rex/Orton. I think the lack of support on offense was way more detrimental to Fields than the swamp *** defense he had the first 2-2.5 years. Bears have to change that culture to ever be more than the bottom-feeder franchise it perennially has been since the mid-90s.

 

Completely same boat as you regarding o vs d.  If you have two good players, and your grading system or whatever doesn't favor one over the other the offensive player should be prioritized for what it can do as a secondary benefit for the most important player on your roster. Anything and everything you can do to improve the situation for the QB is worth while.

As for the mock itself, I love it and want to take it home and build it a cute little house in the backyard and have it forever. Even like the trade up which suprises me, but if it fell like that I'd be thrilled. 

As for Alt falling... I think this is going to be a weird draft, that people probably talk about for a while.  There are some high end talents at lots of positions and mostly along the offense. There are more than normal high grades on QB (almost as good as 2021!) There are more than normal amounts of teams in need of a QB in the draft. All kinds of stars aligning for weird **** to go down.  How weird (good) would it be if the Falcons got bumped to the end of round 1 for tampering for Kirk Cousins? Also would be objectively hilarious to pay a penalty for that particular prize. 

[MonserinNC]

14 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I get that, but we’re also gonna continue to add guys to help him do that next year. And the year after. And the year after that. We’re one Sweat injury away from having ZERO pass rush. The year 1 Trestman team scored a ton of points but couldn’t stop anyone. That’s not good for CW’s development either. 

EXACTLY! We have 2 2nd rounders next year and depending on the panthers it could be top 40, maybe even top 35. I highly doubt Allen is a 1 year rental, so lets not go crazy getting a 3rd WR, and a 3rd TE.  We need defensive help NOW though

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW said:

Completely same boat as you regarding o vs d.  If you have two good players, and your grading system or whatever doesn't favor one over the other the offensive player should be prioritized for what it can do as a secondary benefit for the most important player on your roster. Anything and everything you can do to improve the situation for the QB is worth while.

The logic is sound, and neither way is wrong per se - we each just have our preferences as to which is best. For me, giving CW a starting caliber edge rusher (with stud upside) on the other side of the ball and giving his team a better chance to need less from him to win games in what will be a developmental year at least to some extent helps improve his situation more than giving him a better 5th non-RB receiving option or replacing a starting caliber OL with a guy who may eventually better but very possibly not in 2024. Giving him more games where he can win with 20 points would take a ton of pressure off of him, especially after what he went through last year with the siege that the USC defense is.

CJ Stroud was awesome as a rookie last year and Houston was 11-8 overall including the playoffs, but they were just 2-7 in games where they allowed 21+ points. They were 9-1 when they allowed 20 or less. Being able to succeed as a team while allowing for some growing pains individually would be huge for Williams’ development same as it was for Stroud. 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

To be fair, they just really need to hit on pick 9.  1 obviously as well but that goes without saying, but they absolutely need a starter this year who has long term upside.  If they end up drafting D at 9 (or 12, or 15) and it comes out that their eval said he was the best prospect with a good floor and a high ceiling, I could live with that.  

The one concern I have with their philosophy*-in which they've said out loud "build through the draft" but their hands say trade for starting players-is that they are in a spot where they need drafted rookies to play.  They can't miss on the QB-again, duh-but they need to get 9 on the field and be good right away.   Would be icing if their 3rd or 4th can play too but that's a big ask. 

 

I feel like all the Beras regimes I can recall knowing a lot about have a thing they say that they never ever do.  For Pace it was "acquire a QB every year" and for Poles it's "build through the draft"

[StLunatic88]

32 minutes ago, MonserinNC said:

EXACTLY! We have 2 2nd rounders next year and depending on the panthers it could be top 40, maybe even top 35. I highly doubt Allen is a 1 year rental, so lets not go crazy getting a 3rd WR, and a 3rd TE.  We need defensive help NOW though

What kind of defensive player do you think we would be getting at #122 and #142?

Its not going to be anything more than a rotational guy at best in 2024. And maybe only that in 2025...

In this scenario, Brendan Rice is at best the #6 weapon on this roster, and probably lower. Sinnott is being a blocking TE/FB. That is the level of contributor you would have to expect on the defensive side from those picks. So that would be MAYBE a situational pass rusher and a 4/5th DT? 

 

I also said we should then go sign 2 more vets who are out there to play on the Edge, both who could be solid 1 year contracts. We have gone too far on the "no one on the DL" narrative. Are we thin? Yep absolutely, but we arent likely to ever be stacked at every level of the team. And as much as Sweat changed who we were as a Defense, the real change happened when we had a healthy Secondary. This Defense is currently constructed to defend from the back, and that likely isnt going to change this season, even if we were to get a Verse/Turner at #9. We have 4 DTs on the roster right now, one is Rotational at DE/DT with Walker, but Billings and Dexter are the starters, and to me thats a good/solid starting pair. We can add more talent absolutely, but we dont have 'no one'. And as I expect Dexter to take a big step, I also think Pickens will too, which should make him a solid rotational guy. Yes, at DE we are thin, but we havent been good there in like 3 years, its nothing new. If you add a veteran like Carl Lawson or even a lesser Charles Harris, you have your stud in Sweat, and then a rotation of Walker/Lawson on the other side with a few other UFDAs and Cuts that will be the depth. 

I think we are making this harder than it needs to be right now

[MonserinNC]

1 hour ago, StLunatic88 said:

What kind of defensive player do you think we would be getting at #122 and #142?

Its not going to be anything more than a rotational guy at best in 2024. And maybe only that in 2025...

In this scenario, Brendan Rice is at best the #6 weapon on this roster, and probably lower. Sinnott is being a blocking TE/FB. That is the level of contributor you would have to expect on the defensive side from those picks. So that would be MAYBE a situational pass rusher and a 4/5th DT? 

 

I also said we should then go sign 2 more vets who are out there to play on the Edge, both who could be solid 1 year contracts. We have gone too far on the "no one on the DL" narrative. Are we thin? Yep absolutely, but we arent likely to ever be stacked at every level of the team. And as much as Sweat changed who we were as a Defense, the real change happened when we had a healthy Secondary. This Defense is currently constructed to defend from the back, and that likely isnt going to change this season, even if we were to get a Verse/Turner at #9. We have 4 DTs on the roster right now, one is Rotational at DE/DT with Walker, but Billings and Dexter are the starters, and to me thats a good/solid starting pair. We can add more talent absolutely, but we dont have 'no one'. And as I expect Dexter to take a big step, I also think Pickens will too, which should make him a solid rotational guy. Yes, at DE we are thin, but we havent been good there in like 3 years, its nothing new. If you add a veteran like Carl Lawson or even a lesser Charles Harris, you have your stud in Sweat, and then a rotation of Walker/Lawson on the other side with a few other UFDAs and Cuts that will be the depth. 

I think we are making this harder than it needs to be right now

For sure we are making it harder than it is, we are just ready for the draft and debating small stuff haha

Im just saying I still would rather have that backend talent added to the defense over the offense

[soulman]

On 4/18/2024 at 7:38 PM, Sugashane said:

Bears have to change that culture to ever be more than the bottom-feeder franchise it perennially has been since the mid-90s

Yup, the days of we get off the bus running and holding opponents to under 20 points per game has long since passed.  Unless we can pass, create big plays, and be far less predictable on offense this team goin' nowhere it hasn't spent the last decade being.  Everything Poles has done so far this year has pointed towards getting the offense up to a much higher level.  We can't seem to beat NFCN teams by simply trying to keep them from scoring.  That's hasn't worked much since the 80s.

Sure the defense still has some holes that need to be patched but given the strength of the DL class vs the WR and OL classes this may not be the year to do that.  I disagree with the concept of trading down to add 2nd tier 1st round picks and day 3 3rd tier picks instead of adding another blue chip player at or near #9.  Because of the sheer number of QB projected to be drafted high in round one a top shelf blue chip prospect should be there for the taking at #9.  So draft him and call it an early night.

[AZBearsFan]

7 hours ago, soulman said:

Sure the defense still has some holes that need to be patched but given the strength of the DL class vs the WR and OL classes this may not be the year to do that.  I disagree with the concept of trading down to add 2nd tier 1st round picks and day 3 3rd tier picks instead of adding another blue chip player at or near #9.  Because of the sheer number of QB projected to be drafted high in round one a top shelf blue chip prospect should be there for the taking at #9.  So draft him and call it an early night.

The biggest difference between the DL and WR/OL classes to me isn’t at the top - it’s beyond round 1. At DL I have 4 edges (one of whom has a significant medical history) and 2 DTs in R1, but anyone beyond R1 being rotational pieces short and long term. I see more than a dozen WRs with WR1/2 potential and who will make year 1 impacts, and IOL with year 1 starting talent into the middle rounds. If you want a year 1 starting OT you probably need them R1, but that’s basically every year. 

[soulman]

4 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

The biggest difference between the DL and WR/OL classes to me isn’t at the top - it’s beyond round 1. At DL I have 4 edges (one of whom has a significant medical history) and 2 DTs in R1, but anyone beyond R1 being rotational pieces short and long term. I see more than a dozen WRs with WR1/2 potential and who will make year 1 impacts, and IOL with year 1 starting talent into the middle rounds. If you want a year 1 starting OT you probably need them R1, but that’s basically every year. 

I agree but does Poles believe he needs a starting OT this year?  Wright was a need pick last year and he seems content with Jones or at least his talk indicates that.  The other factor is both OT are young and still ascending so is there a true need to replace Jones and are we certain any LT prospect will be that much better?  IMHO the OL play here is a guy who can be used at OT or OG.

WR make an impact when they get open and get targeted.  Given those already on the Bears roster playing ahead of a rookie WR that guy will likely get targeted less no matter where we draft him.  But we're not drafting him for 2024 only.  We're drafting a rookie replacement for Keenan Allen who will also be in the same draft class as CW allowing both to grow together as a duo.

If there was an elite blue chip DE/Edge Rusher in this draft I'd probably take him.  As best we can tell there's only Turner who comes close to that and IMHO it's based more on what he can be than what he already is.  If Turner is on the board at #9 I expect Poles might take him.  I'm less certain of that with an OT or another DL.  I still believe that Poles should stay at #9 and take a blue chip BPA.

[soulman]

Let me add to my thinking on this draft.

I believe we've reached the point where other than at QB we have capable starters at most other positions.  There are a couple we could certainly upgrade but is it imperative that we do?  The biggest need seems to be better pass rushers but we did invest in two DT last year and traded for Sweat.  If we can draft a solid blue chip DL I would do it but are any of this years crop that good that it would be nuts to pass on one.  It doesn't seem like it based on where they're ranked to go.  Turner seems to be the best and yet he's not graded as high or as NFL ready as Will Anderson was last year.  Murphy seems to be the top DT but even he's ranked lower than the top ten.

I also believe we've reached a point where we can invest in a position that may be covered now but will need a top shelf younger pro soon enough.  Enough of the roster has been rebuilt to invest in a BPA pick regardless of position.  We don't know the Bears board so that could be a DL or OL just as easily as it could a WR.  They've already gamed this out ahead of time so I believe they have not only the players stacked where they like them but also the positions stacked as well and DE may be the top one.  But that still doesn't mean you don't take the BPA on your board if the top DE prospect is already gone.  If so whose next?  A WR?  An OL?  Draft him then.

Anytime a team is lucky enough to have two top ten picks either draft the bluest of the blue or look to make bank on a trade that can help you both now and in the future.  We know Poles is not trading pick #1 and if he does trade pick #9 I can only hope he gets a good haul for it because IMHO he will be walking away from a blue chip player only to add more 2nd and 3rd tier rookies.  Over the past two years we needed that more than we seem to need it now.  If he does it should only be for players he believes can start this year or be a key part of a rotation.  Otherwise I would hope he takes that blue chip guy who he feels is a can't miss prospect.

[SLCbear]

On 4/16/2024 at 11:40 AM, StLunatic88 said:

Alright, we all know Mock Draft season hasnt been all that fun this year, but thats OK because we made the team so much better with Vets, and we know who will be leading the team at QB going forward. So With limited Mocks to do, I figured I would throw out a mock that I believe would be the absolute best case scenario for the Bears in 2024. A few guys slipping to somewhat realistic spots, although not likely. How would you feel if we walk out of next weekend with these guys?

 

Round 1

1:1 Caleb Williams QB - USC

2:WAS J. Daniels, 3:NE D. Maye, 4:ARZ M. Harrison, 5:MIN J. McCarthy, 6:NYG M. Nabers, 7:TEN T. Fuaga, 8:ATL D. Turner

1:9 Joe Alt OT - Notre Dame

Round 2

TRADE: CAR sends #33 + #142 to CHI for #75 + CAR '25 2nd + CHI '25 3rd

2:33 Jackson Powers-Johnson OL - Oregon

Round 4

4:122 Ben Sinnott TE/HB - Kansas St

Round 5

5:142 Brendan Rice WR - USC

 

 

This is obviously a massive risk going ALL Offense here, but if you are going to commit to giving Caleb Williams every chance to succeed it might have to be the play for one year. We then go out and grab Carl Lawson and/or Charles Harris to be the DE rotational guys, and hope to find a DT off the cut heap in august. This is suddenly a force of a team (with some holes) that might be everyone's sleeper pick for 2024

I LOVE the idea of getting 2 blue chip OL from this Draft and even believe that this is probably the best strategy for us at this time

  but absolutely HATE the idea of giving up next year's CAR 2nd AND a 3RP. We need these picks after having seen Caleb for a year and knowing exactly how to move forward !

 

Trading back from 9, picking up another top 50 pick for a sliding JPJ or Frazier is best case scenario   ...or use next year's 3rd to move up 5-10 spots from say 49, after trade down with CIN at #18. 

 I started a thread for OL ranking, this OL Draft talent is ridiculously deep and uber- talented 

 Double dipping in this ridiculously talented OL trenches is probably the way to go 

Cant give up a 2nd &3rd in next year's Draft though..

 I could go as high as the CAR 2 if its for JPJ

[SLCbear]

I like Ben Sinnott, but this team, I'm definitely taking Brandon Dorlus or Mo Kamara.