2024 Schedule - Confirmed

[Broncofan]

On 5/15/2024 at 3:50 PM, thebestever6 said:

NFL hates us 3 out of our first 4 games are on the road with a rookie qb. And why the hell isn't the steelers game on prime time?

Probably because they've seen Russ play last year lol.   

2 teams that are probably going to be run-heavy, with a rookie QB with a lot of exploitable flaws, and catching up to NFL speed, vs. Russ 2022-23 version.    If anything, it might make a bad TNF game draw, but I don't think SNF/MNF was ever a serious consideration.

[Broncofan]

On 5/16/2024 at 4:44 PM, AnAngryAmerican said:

I know a lot of people want to sit Nix, especially with that September schedule. We don't have a proven, veteran starter on the roster like the Chiefs did when they had Mahomes but Alex Smith in front of him. They also had a playoff roster. We have neither of the sort. 

I've heard people say that unless Nix is clearly well ahead of Wilson and/or Stidham, they should sit him for a while. I take the opposite approach - unless Nix is very clearly well behind the one or both of the other two, you should start him. If he is in fact as mature and mentally strong as everyone has been saying, and not just local apologists and fan boys (one of the clowns at MHR is predicting an 11-6 season), but the national guys who think he should have been a second round pick, do point to maturity, mental toughness and experience as his strengths. 

It's like a getting a brand new vehicle because you needed one and quite likely you spent more than you wanted to. So you paid that high price but now you're keeping it in the garage and driving your old clunker around town because you worried about damaging your new one. What good does the new car, the one spent a fortune on, more than you should have spent, do sitting in your garage? It's probably going to get some dents and dings. 

 

The one valid concern is if you start a rookie who's nowhere near ready, or behind a terrible OL, they basically learn nothing, and just develop bad habits.     While I think that's a legit point on the OL side of things, it's not practical to sit rookies 2-3 years as they used to do in the pre-modern cap era.     Jordan Love is the obvious exception, but it's pretty rare to have an elite QB / established top 10-12 QB to let a rookie sit that long.   I guess we'll see how things work out in ATL (although ironically there, I don't think Penix is a guy that needed to sit multiple years, but that's a different story).

The thing is, as others mentioned, Nix has 60+ games at college starting, 2 years in the SEC.    As a 24+ year old, if he needs more time, there's a major problem here.  

As a 24-year old rookie, I take the view that if he can't adjust to the NFL speed in year 1, other than a horrible OL making him run for his life the entire time, he's likely not a franchise-level QB to begin with.    If you draft a 20 year old guy who's all tools and has little experience vs. elite tier talent, I can see the argument to give more time to let him learn, but not here.   So I'm in your corner that if he's even close to the level of Stidham and MILF-hunter, you go with Nix.    And given the level of play we've seen from Stidham and Wilson, if he's not at their level, it's pretty discouraging news for a R1 pick.    It doesn't damn him, but also would be a sign of how much need drives middle-late R1 picks for QB so many times.

 

Edited July 24 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

The tough part of the schedule is that the most winnable games we have are in fact early on (except NO) - SEA's D has a huge problem personnel wise, PIT's O is obv a work in progress, and TAM is very much a rebuilding team.   But we get TAM & SEA on the road, and being they're all Week 1-4 games, we're facing them with either a meh stopgap in Stidham, or said rookie QB Nix / new QB (Wilson), both learning Payton's system - which definitely takes time.   @SEA, @TAM, @LV & @NO are all in theory games where I suspect we'll have a path (SEA is so tough to go visit, though).  We'd have a much better path if SEA/TAM weren't so early though - the chances our O is nowhere near whatever top-gear we have with our QB's (which may not be that high, but Payton should be able to max out once they learn the system), is pretty high in September.

CAR & NO are definitely winnable games, and I suspect we'll be favored vs. CAR (likely a dog on road @ NO, but should be 3 pts or less).   After that, the most winnable game on paper could be Week 18 - since there's a good chance KC may be sitting their guys last week of the year (LOL).   

The SOS in our first 8 weeks creates a lot of games that we have a path to victory (but will be rightful dogs on many of them) - I think we'll be favored vs. CAR & LV, and  the 2H of the schedule is downright brutal.    ATL got rid of Arthur Smith and has Cousins at QB instead of Desmond Ridder (lol), and IND gets Anthony Richardson at QB, assuming he's healthy, with resurgent young talent.    We'll almost certainly be home dogs vs. CLE on TNF.    

If we don't win 2-4 games in 1H of the season.....man, it could be a long one.  We stole 2-3 games we had no right winning last year, so there's always a path, but if we're struggling after Week 8, the 2H could be really rough.  

Edited July 24 by Broncofan

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

The one valid concern is if you start a rookie who's nowhere near ready, or behind a terrible OL, they basically learn nothing, and just develop bad habits.     While I think that's a legit point on the OL side of things, it's not practical to sit rookies 2-3 years as they used to do in the pre-modern cap era.     Jordan Love is the obvious exception, but it's pretty rare to have an elite QB / established top 10-12 QB to let a rookie sit that long.   I guess we'll see how things work out in ATL (although ironically there, I don't think Penix is a guy that needed to sit multiple years, but that's a different story).

The thing is, as others mentioned, Nix has 60+ games at college starting, 2 years in the SEC.    As a 24+ year old, if he needs more time, there's a major problem here.  

As a 24-year old rookie, I take the view that if he can't adjust to the NFL speed in year 1, other than a horrible OL making him run for his life the entire time, he's likely not a franchise-level QB to begin with.    If you draft a 20 year old guy who's all tools and has little experience vs. elite tier talent, I can see the argument to give more time to let him learn, but not here.   So I'm in your corner that if he's even close to the level of Stidham and MILF-hunter, you go with Nix.    And given the level of play we've seen from Stidham and Wilson, if he's not at their level, it's pretty discouraging news for a R1 pick.    It doesn't damn him, but also would be a sign of how much need drives middle-late R1 picks for QB so many times.

 

Is he though? Yes he looked pretty good last year, but now the Packers are set to make him the highest paid player in the league after 1 season of starting. We have seen time and again QBs show well their first season when expectations are relatively low and there’s no game tape on them only to never recapture that spark. GB not only has lost the benefit of the rookie wage window, but is taking a gamble. I don’t envy them.

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

Is he though? Yes he looked pretty good last year, but now the Packers are set to make him the highest paid player in the league after 1 season of starting. We have seen time and again QBs show well their first season when expectations are relatively low and there’s no game tape on them only to never recapture that spark. GB not only has lost the benefit of the rookie wage window, but is taking a gamble. I don’t envy them.

The contracts are def another Q altogether.   Fair point - but for the sake of rookie QB’s & development time, it’s pretty clear Love has shown he can succeed in the NFL.   Whether he’s worth elite $ is another question.   Certainly you’d want more than 1 year before deciding.    The ideal would be having multiple years of success for sure.    But if we got 2023 Love as a result I think we’d say it was a decent result.    The 2H improvement and his playoff performance vs. DAL / SF does give even more optimism.   
 

Put it this way - if Bo Nix played as well as Love did last year in his 3rd or 4th year of his rookie deal - we’d probably be a really happy fan base.    ESP if it was the Love from the 2H onwards.   FWIW Love def struggled for a decent stretch in mid Oct - Nov as teams got that film.    The fact he ended strong and in playoffs does give a lot of optimism.   It suggests that he was able to adjust back.   Still I wouldn’t want to decide based on 1 season.   
 

Love being cited as an exception was the ability for orgs to sit a rookie for 2-3 years before letting them start.     Right now only ATL would be in that position.   In that respect I think the principle still holds - if Nix has to sit the entire year or even most of it I’d be concerned given his extent of college experience and rookie age.   

Edited July 24 by Broncofan

[The Helicopter]

The Broncos don't have to win that many games this year, it would be better if we didn't squeak out some wins until the tail end of the year. We just need to be competitive enough to feel good about next year and Nix moving forward. I'd rather have a draft position of #1-5 and know Bo is the future, than go 5-12 or 6-11 and still have question marks at QB and not be able to get a tier 1 QB. I don't want to repeat the Tebow era.

[MontanaBronco]

1 hour ago, The Helicopter said:

The Broncos don't have to win that many games this year, it would be better if we didn't squeak out some wins until the tail end of the year. We just need to be competitive enough to feel good about next year and Nix moving forward. I'd rather have a draft position of #1-5 and know Bo is the future, than go 5-12 or 6-11 and still have question marks at QB and not be able to get a tier 1 QB. I don't want to repeat the Tebow era.

I hear ya on the wanting to get a premium draft position, but I think having a top five pick and also feeling confident that Nix is the answer might be a little like wanting our cake and eating it too. I know the roster has holes but we won 8 games last year with very limited qb play(numbers tell a different story but the eye test doesn't). If we lose enough games to be top five despite having a pretty solid OL and still decent skill positions then qb play will likely be a big reason why. 

[AnAngryAmerican]

On 7/24/2024 at 8:28 AM, Broncofan said:

The tough part of the schedule is that the most winnable games we have are in fact early on (except NO) - SEA's D has a huge problem personnel wise, PIT's O is obv a work in progress, and TAM is very much a rebuilding team.   But we get TAM & SEA on the road, and being they're all Week 1-4 games, we're facing them with either a meh stopgap in Stidham, or said rookie QB Nix / new QB (Wilson), both learning Payton's system - which definitely takes time.   @SEA, @TAM, @LV & @NO are all in theory games where I suspect we'll have a path (SEA is so tough to go visit, though).  We'd have a much better path if SEA/TAM weren't so early though - the chances our O is nowhere near whatever top-gear we have with our QB's (which may not be that high, but Payton should be able to max out once they learn the system), is pretty high in September.

CAR & NO are definitely winnable games, and I suspect we'll be favored vs. CAR (likely a dog on road @ NO, but should be 3 pts or less).   After that, the most winnable game on paper could be Week 18 - since there's a good chance KC may be sitting their guys last week of the year (LOL).   

The SOS in our first 8 weeks creates a lot of games that we have a path to victory (but will be rightful dogs on many of them) - I think we'll be favored vs. CAR & LV, and  the 2H of the schedule is downright brutal.    ATL got rid of Arthur Smith and has Cousins at QB instead of Desmond Ridder (lol), and IND gets Anthony Richardson at QB, assuming he's healthy, with resurgent young talent.    We'll almost certainly be home dogs vs. CLE on TNF.    

If we don't win 2-4 games in 1H of the season.....man, it could be a long one.  We stole 2-3 games we had no right winning last year, so there's always a path, but if we're struggling after Week 8, the 2H could be really rough.  

As regards the schedule, Seattle is a brutal place to play regardless of how their roster looks. Tampa, in September, at 11am is also brutal regardless of their roster. And then, and yes they’re going to stay on the east coast but say the Jets, after getting destroyed by the Niners in week 1, win their next two games (@TEN, vs NE) and are coming in hot, that’s not an easy win. 

We discussed the schedule at length when it was announced and the NFL absolutely hosed us. That’s fine if you want the team to face adversity and to get better draft position (which I do), it’s not fine if you’re the Walmarts and you’re trying to convince the casual fanbase to hang on.