Fantasy Football General Discussion Thread 2024

[Sllim Pickens]

Just now, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

why do you think LJax snipes TDs though? Thats never been Lamar's game

L Jax gets more rushing TDs than Tannehill did the last couple of years. Not to mention the roll out game close to the end zone that leads to short TDs for Andrews/Likely etc.  And Mitchell if healthy I think gets more touches even around the goal line. 

There is very little support of getting a top RB who switches teams and still finishes as a top 10 RB.  James Connor is one of the few who has done it but he was young. 

There is also very few RBs who maintain their efficiency after 30.  Sure Henry is a tank so maybe he has a leg up but that also means he likely has taken bigger hits over time that add up. 

I feel like Henry is going to hit that Eddie George fall off from over use given his age and carries per year.  AP did the same thing and although age 30 was his last elite year, he was coming off an injury so he had two years to let his body recover. LT fell off at 30, Gore didn't have an elite season after 30, Shady McCoy fell of after his age 29 season, Lynch fell off after his age 28 season, CJ2K fell off after his age 28 season, Jamal Lewis made it to age 29, Zeke fell off at 27 due to overuse, Ekeler fell off at 28 and so on.  The only backs who really have done much over 30 are ones who didn't get many touches early on like Mostert.  Even Emmitt Smith fell off after his age 31 season but still played for a while putting up meh numbers similar to Frank Gore.  

[JaguarCrazy2832]

2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

L Jax gets more rushing TDs than Tannehill did the last couple of years. Not to mention the roll out game close to the end zone that leads to short TDs for Andrews/Likely etc.  And Mitchell if healthy I think gets more touches even around the goal line. 

There is very little support of getting a top RB who switches teams and still finishes as a top 10 RB.  James Connor is one of the few who has done it but he was young. 

There is also very few RBs who maintain their efficiency after 30.  Sure Henry is a tank so maybe he has a leg up but that also means he likely has taken bigger hits over time that add up. 

I feel like Henry is going to hit that Eddie George fall off from over use given his age and carries per year.  AP did the same thing and although age 30 was his last elite year, he was coming off an injury so he had two years to let his body recover. LT fell off at 30, Gore didn't have an elite season after 30, Shady McCoy fell of after his age 29 season, Lynch fell off after his age 28 season, CJ2K fell off after his age 28 season, Jamal Lewis made it to age 29, Zeke fell off at 27 due to overuse, Ekeler fell off at 28 and so on.  The only backs who really have done much over 30 are ones who didn't get many touches early on like Mostert.  Even Emmitt Smith fell off after his age 31 season but still played for a while putting up meh numbers similar to Frank Gore.  

I'm just saying 5-3-2 in the last 3 years doesnt scream a big problem. 

Now you may be right Henry could fall off a cliff badly but I dont think Lamar will hinder him at all. 

[AFF]

3 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I am not sure if there is a player that I am avoiding as much as Henry this year.  I think he falls off a cliff and Keaton Mitchell ends up being the back to have in Baltimore.  Henry should be more efficient but Lamar will snipe some TDs, and he is older and running backs that change teams, especially when older typically struggle.  Especially if they have other talented options fighting for snaps like Mitchell. 

Harbaugh has been very much on the negative side regarding Mitchell…his comments basically stated they expect him to miss games.

Im not sure on what to think of Henry…he didn’t show much of a decline last year.

[AFF]

14 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I'm just saying 5-3-2 in the last 3 years doesnt scream a big problem. 

Now you may be right Henry could fall off a cliff badly but I dont think Lamar will hinder him at all. 

Plus Mitchell is coming off an ACL tear and is only 5-8 190…he’s not taking away GL carries anytime soon

[adamq]

How we feeling about Zach moss? I'm pretty high on him, thinking he would take the majority of Mixon's workload with some Chase Brown mixed in as the change of pace guy... but this feels just like when Chase Edmonds signed in Miami a couple years ago...

[Sllim Pickens]

14 hours ago, AFF said:

Harbaugh has been very much on the negative side regarding Mitchell…his comments basically stated they expect him to miss games.

Im not sure on what to think of Henry…he didn’t show much of a decline last year.

Most RBs don't have a slow decline.  His carries and age will take their toll and changing teams is a bad sign too.  Just so much history on the side of Henry not being that good. 

[AFF]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Most RBs don't have a slow decline.  His carries and age will take their toll and changing teams is a bad sign too.  Just so much history on the side of Henry not being that good. 

Here’s the thing…Gus Edwards IIRC had 13 TDs last year and like I said Mitchell probably starts on PUp list missing 4 games to begin year….Ravens didn’t add anybody else of Note to the backfield either.

I definitely see the negatives but there’s also the blatant positives of his situation too.

[Sllim Pickens]

3 hours ago, AFF said:

Here’s the thing…Gus Edwards IIRC had 13 TDs last year and like I said Mitchell probably starts on PUp list missing 4 games to begin year….Ravens didn’t add anybody else of Note to the backfield either.

I definitely see the negatives but there’s also the blatant positives of his situation too.

Blatant positives is what gets you in trouble.  Age is more accurate that situation typically.  Maybe Mitchell misses 4-6 weeks to start the year but then when he is back, Henry becomes a flex play.  And down the stretch when you are in the playoffs, depending on a 30-31 year old (He turns 31 before their week 18 game so he is pretty much a 31 year old RB) is very risky.  He might get you numbers early, but he won't be the guy to carry your team down the stretch. I just know that Adrian Peterson came off an All pro season at 30 and his 31 season was rough with injuries and then he had 500 yards the next year.  Marshawn Lynch had a great situation in Oakland and had 800 yards and 7 TDs in age 30/31 season. LT had a great situation in his age 30 season and dropped from 1100 yards and 12 TDs with 50 catches to 700 yards, 11 TDs and 20 catches.  He got some TDs but the last 5 weeks of the season he averaged 50 yards and .5 TDs per game.  

I get why he looks attractive, and I looked long and hard at him myself, but the RB drop off is quick and changing teams makes it quicker.  Dalvin Cook just went from a 1200 yard season averaging 4.4 ypc and 8TD with two receiving TDs and being a pro bowl RB to not being able to crack a rotation with not very good RB situations when switching teams and he was only 28.  So many red flags, so if you ignore them, thats on you.  I just can't look past everything telling me not to draft him especially at his ADP. 

I wouldn't be shocked if Joe Mixon struggles hard this year too given he switched teams.  He is only 28 but changing teams, even going to a favorable situation is not a good situation. Last year Jamaal Williams came off his biggest TD total of his career and went to a different situation set up perfectly for him and he again couldn't get on the field.  Saquon scares me this year too, especially with Hurts stealing TDs. So many examples of changing teams crushing fantasy value for RBs. 

[adamq]

I was pretty much out on Rhamondre but the contract has turned me around on him. At his current adp I'm happy if he is my RB2. Guys like Monty, Najee, Brian Robinson are some names in the same range I wouldn't mind having pieces of instead of Henry

[AFF]

4 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Blatant positives is what gets you in trouble.  Age is more accurate that situation typically.  Maybe Mitchell misses 4-6 weeks to start the year but then when he is back, Henry becomes a flex play.  And down the stretch when you are in the playoffs, depending on a 30-31 year old (He turns 31 before their week 18 game so he is pretty much a 31 year old RB) is very risky.  He might get you numbers early, but he won't be the guy to carry your team down the stretch. I just know that Adrian Peterson came off an All pro season at 30 and his 31 season was rough with injuries and then he had 500 yards the next year.  Marshawn Lynch had a great situation in Oakland and had 800 yards and 7 TDs in age 30/31 season. LT had a great situation in his age 30 season and dropped from 1100 yards and 12 TDs with 50 catches to 700 yards, 11 TDs and 20 catches.  He got some TDs but the last 5 weeks of the season he averaged 50 yards and .5 TDs per game.  

I get why he looks attractive, and I looked long and hard at him myself, but the RB drop off is quick and changing teams makes it quicker.  Dalvin Cook just went from a 1200 yard season averaging 4.4 ypc and 8TD with two receiving TDs and being a pro bowl RB to not being able to crack a rotation with not very good RB situations when switching teams and he was only 28.  So many red flags, so if you ignore them, thats on you.  I just can't look past everything telling me not to draft him especially at his ADP. 

I wouldn't be shocked if Joe Mixon struggles hard this year too given he switched teams.  He is only 28 but changing teams, even going to a favorable situation is not a good situation. Last year Jamaal Williams came off his biggest TD total of his career and went to a different situation set up perfectly for him and he again couldn't get on the field.  Saquon scares me this year too, especially with Hurts stealing TDs. So many examples of changing teams crushing fantasy value for RBs. 

It all depends on ADP at the end of the day….good discussion.

[AFF]

3 hours ago, adamq said:

I was pretty much out on Rhamondre but the contract has turned me around on him. At his current adp I'm happy if he is my RB2. Guys like Monty, Najee, Brian Robinson are some names in the same range I wouldn't mind having pieces of instead of Henry

Listened to a podcast recently and the fantasy “expert” was really pounding the table for Brian Robinson especially at cost  but I can’t remember who it was.

Yea I’m ok with Stevenson as my #2 depending on team build…same with Najee.

[tyler735]

On 6/20/2024 at 10:21 AM, AFF said:

I almost see Gibbs in the same tier as Achane but Achane goes what 2-3 rounds later?

I think Achane is better than Gibbs. Especially as a dynasty/keeper option. Achane basically played in 9 games last year. Despite that, he had historically good efficiency. Going for 7.8 yards per carry, which is absolutely absurd. Also had about 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 9 games. In other words, Gibbs had about 250 more yards from scrimmage in about 6 more games worth of football and both had 11 touchdowns.

Gibbs is also a great young RB, but I think Achane has a chance to be a special player assuming he stays healthy. Achane is essentially the Tyreek Hill of RB’s in that he has a level of explosiveness that no other player at his position has. It sounds like Mike Mcdaniel is also making if a point of emphasis to get Achane more work in the passing game this year, which should be an even bigger benefit for fantasy purposes with increased receptions and more plays getting Achane out in space to use his explosive ability.

[naptownskinsfan]

On 7/2/2024 at 7:33 PM, AFF said:

Listened to a podcast recently and the fantasy “expert” was really pounding the table for Brian Robinson especially at cost  but I can’t remember who it was.

Yea I’m ok with Stevenson as my #2 depending on team build…same with Najee.

Personally, I am worried about a front office with zero ties to some of the Commanders players like Robinson and Dotson.  It will not take long for them to change direction if some players are not performing well.  

[AFF]

39 minutes ago, tyler735 said:

I think Achane is better than Gibbs. Especially as a dynasty/keeper option. Achane basically played in 9 games last year. Despite that, he had historically good efficiency. Going for 7.8 yards per carry, which is absolutely absurd. Also had about 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 9 games. In other words, Gibbs had about 250 more yards from scrimmage in about 6 more games worth of football and both had 11 touchdowns.

Gibbs is also a great young RB, but I think Achane has a chance to be a special player assuming he stays healthy. Achane is essentially the Tyreek Hill of RB’s in that he has a level of explosiveness that no other player at his position has. It sounds like Mike Mcdaniel is also making if a point of emphasis to get Achane more work in the passing game this year, which should be an even bigger benefit for fantasy purposes with increased receptions and more plays getting Achane out in space to use his explosive ability.

I like Achane a lot this year but I know the efficiency will go down somewhat.

However it’s an offensive ecosystem that generates fantasy points…and plus Mostert isn’t going to score 21 TDs again. Now is Wright Mosterts long term replacement?…that’s my guess.

I can keep Achane for a 11th this year in a 10 team full ppr start 3 RBs every week league…I’m doing that without hesitation.

[tyler735]

39 minutes ago, AFF said:

I like Achane a lot this year but I know the efficiency will go down somewhat

Yeah will be hard for him to replicate the best YPC in nearly 100 years for sure. However the efficiency should still be among the best if not best among RB’s and should have way more touches over the course of the season.

39 minutes ago, AFF said:

However it’s an offensive ecosystem that generates fantasy points…and plus Mostert isn’t going to score 21 TDs again. Now is Wright Mosterts long term replacement?…that’s my guess.

Yeah I view Wright as the long term Mostert replacement. People are way too afraid of a 32 year old RB that has an extensive history of being injured. Achane is going to get the vast majority of the pass catching work as well among those 3 RB’s. 

39 minutes ago, AFF said:

I can keep Achane for a 11th this year in a 10 team full ppr start 3 RBs every week league…I’m doing that without hesitation.

Absolutely can’t go wrong with that!